wide open? Beyond first place, I definitely agree. We haven't had this in YEARS. It will be interesting (OK, maybe just cool) to see who can get silver and bronze. I think of the others, Em is the most consistent one so I think she's favored for the silver. Bronze is TRULY WO, though.
US Nationals - What are your thoughts?
- Thread starter Kwanford Wife
- Start date
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2004
I'm committed to my belief that BeBe will win... because I feel the upset coming... however, just like Torino & Worlds, I simply don't think anyone has anything locked up... I learned my lesson about predictions and who should win vs. who actually wins... This is one assertion I'd put money on: the Nationals title is wide open.
I think the "anything can happen" mentality (as far as the ladies go) is better suited to major INTERNATIONAL competitions (and maybe Japanese and Russian Nationals thrown in as well).
Such as: Worlds, Olympics, Deep GP events.
When was the last time the US National ladies title was TRULY wide open? Not since I started following along. If Kimmie were NOT skating at Nats, THEN and only THEN would I agree. But you've got someone who is a relatively consistent jumper against everyone else who is pretty inconsistent.
Such as: Worlds, Olympics, Deep GP events.
When was the last time the US National ladies title was TRULY wide open? Not since I started following along. If Kimmie were NOT skating at Nats, THEN and only THEN would I agree. But you've got someone who is a relatively consistent jumper against everyone else who is pretty inconsistent.
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2004
But RD... Kwan held that title forever... and before her, most of the big dawgs stayed in for 4-6 years and moved on... this Nationals is as wide open as it gets... But whatever. I'm gonna be like you were during the Olympics & simply sit back & watch everyone's chins hit the ground... like mine did at Worlds & Turin...
We keep talking about the "page turning & the future" or whatever cliche Peggy is using this week, a shocker of a Nationals is going to be apart of that...
) but Olympics, that wasn't nearly as surprising to me. I just sat back and watched the show 
- Joined
- Jun 27, 2003
I didn't even care for Brad until I saw him in Mr. and Mrs. Smith and then Oceans... 12... then Oceans 11 (cuz I'm backward that way) as far as an actor
and like I said there's something about him when he's holding Shiloh or Zahara or Maddox that just
gets me... and on the subject of FRIENDS - none are finer than Matthew Perry!
but yeah, Nationals... should be interesting
- Joined
- Mar 14, 2006
Hmm. I *think* Red Dog is right but I *hope* Kwanford is right. Which one would I put MY money on?
Sigh. Kimmie....
... but only for Nationals.
Sigh. Kimmie....
... but only for Nationals.
- Joined
- Mar 14, 2006
Brad Pitt? Big schmeal.
What about Brad(en) Overett! Now there is something to swoon about.
What about Brad(en) Overett! Now there is something to swoon about.
I can't argue that the Ladies Championships were never almost as predictable as taxes. Way back when, a girl was "crowned" and she reigned no matter how hard the judges had to work to keep her on top. ( Examples: Even Hamill said Fratianne should have won in 1976. Linda got her gift in 1980.)
There was some great changes to the pattern in the 80's and 90's. The title was handed back and forth and sideways. It went Chin- Thomas-Trenary -Thomas-Trenary-Trenary- Harding-Yamaguchi-Kerrigan-Harding (voided)-Bobek-Kwan-Lipinski-Kwan etc. I know people assume that Kwan's tenure was a return to the old pattern. I don't believe that is so. Kwan did some of her best skating at Nationals. When she messed up, she lost the title even though she was the reigning World Champion at the time. That was unheard of in the old days.
I think that in the absence of a truly dominant skater, the judges are much more willing to call it as they see it. Kimmie is very good technically but even with the World title she hasn't proven herself yet. She had a great skate at Worlds. She's had several good skates and some poor to middling ones. She hasn't dominanted. She hasn't shown herself to be as strong artistically as she is technically yet. She hasn't developed a large fan base yet.
While she is in the best position of all the contenders, a bright, shining new star can take it all away in a heartbeat. Americans love their Ice Princesses. If Kimmie falls, she will pay for it. She doesn't have a record that will hold her up yet.
There was some great changes to the pattern in the 80's and 90's. The title was handed back and forth and sideways. It went Chin- Thomas-Trenary -Thomas-Trenary-Trenary- Harding-Yamaguchi-Kerrigan-Harding (voided)-Bobek-Kwan-Lipinski-Kwan etc. I know people assume that Kwan's tenure was a return to the old pattern. I don't believe that is so. Kwan did some of her best skating at Nationals. When she messed up, she lost the title even though she was the reigning World Champion at the time. That was unheard of in the old days.
I think that in the absence of a truly dominant skater, the judges are much more willing to call it as they see it. Kimmie is very good technically but even with the World title she hasn't proven herself yet. She had a great skate at Worlds. She's had several good skates and some poor to middling ones. She hasn't dominanted. She hasn't shown herself to be as strong artistically as she is technically yet. She hasn't developed a large fan base yet.
While she is in the best position of all the contenders, a bright, shining new star can take it all away in a heartbeat. Americans love their Ice Princesses. If Kimmie falls, she will pay for it. She doesn't have a record that will hold her up yet.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
That's an interesting historical perspective. I think, though, that in comparison to U.S. ladies who will be at nationals this year, Kimmie has proved herself dominant, nor do I see any bright new shining star who is in a position to step up if Kimmie falters.
Point-wise, Kimmie's absolute worst performance in more than a year was at Eric Bompard, and she still ended up with 158 points. She fell on the triple Axel (which I don't think she will be attempting at nationals) and made some other mistakes. Otherwise, all of her scores have been in the 170s and above.
In contrast, here are the all-time bests of her challengers:
Alissa Czisny -- 168.32 at Skate Canada last year (her only clean performance ever, I believe)
Katy Taylor -- 164.05 a Four Continents (her only victory at a senior event)
Caroline Zhang -- 162.68 at JGP final (but she's still in juniors)
Rachael Flatt belongs in here somewhere at about the same level, I believe (she has not yet skated in any senior ISU event).
Emily Hughes -- 160.87 at the Olympics (her scores this year have been much lower)
Bebe Liang -- 158.91 at Four Continents.
So in order for Kimmie to lose she would pretty much have to have her worst skate of the season and someone else would have to hit their all-time best.
Could happen, I guess. But IMHO Kimmie is less likely to suffer a meltdown than any of the others in this list.
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COP does change the picture, but there's still room for manipulation. I don't think it's all about the math. Plus, comparing numbers from different competitions doesn't really show the picture clearly. The scores can vary just because of the judging panel.
Kimmie, with all due respect for her athletic abilities, leaves many people cold and bored. (I must say though that she has improved this season.) She may be World Champion, but she does have weaknesses.
If she messes up, there is no reason for her to be placed over a skater who gives a performance that's good technically and artistically. It's not like she's been out there kicking butt all season. Plus, the year after the Olympics is the time when all the girls will be going all out for the National title. It can set a skater up for the next cycle and is really a very, very important competition. Suprises can and have happened before.
As I've said, she is the one to beat. I just don't think she is necessarily a sure thing. Now, if she had been winning coming into this, it might be different. She is going to have to be at her best.
Kimmie, with all due respect for her athletic abilities, leaves many people cold and bored. (I must say though that she has improved this season.) She may be World Champion, but she does have weaknesses.
If she messes up, there is no reason for her to be placed over a skater who gives a performance that's good technically and artistically. It's not like she's been out there kicking butt all season. Plus, the year after the Olympics is the time when all the girls will be going all out for the National title. It can set a skater up for the next cycle and is really a very, very important competition. Suprises can and have happened before.
As I've said, she is the one to beat. I just don't think she is necessarily a sure thing. Now, if she had been winning coming into this, it might be different. She is going to have to be at her best.
Thanks for the numbers MM. That just makes it even clearer how far ahead of her US competition Kimmie is.
I'm one of those people who find Kimmie's skating "Meh" (although she has improved somewhat over last year, she still has a looooooooong way to go). Some people just aren't born with the musical/interpretation talent, but to her credit she works hard on the jumps so that makes up for lack of presentation.
I'm one of those people who find Kimmie's skating "Meh" (although she has improved somewhat over last year, she still has a looooooooong way to go). Some people just aren't born with the musical/interpretation talent, but to her credit she works hard on the jumps so that makes up for lack of presentation.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
I take it you would say NO to Clooney and his offer for a trip to Lake Como, and stay in LA and watch the Men and Boys skating.Well considering I can't STAND George Clooney and can't figure out the whole 'he's so hot' crazy that everyone around me has I don't think it will be too hard. Somehow I don't think he'd go for a 'religious right-wing nut job' anyway
Joe
- Joined
- Mar 19, 2006
And in Juniors this is relevant because they don't do level 4s in areas like Step Sq or just not get scored at that level or something?
I guess direct question, if someone in Juniors does a level 4 spin combo, do they score it as such? Or is that level of execution just not worked into the routine? I guess I should study more.... But don't you all like showing me how smart informed are?
IMO, more then any athlete at 17 (and in a lot of cases age doesn't matter) I have ever seen. She handles pressure better then I have seen Jordan and comparable to B Bonds. JMO
I think this is the first time Kimmie's been the FAVORITE going into a major senior competition, though. It'll be interesting to see how she can handle that. Always she's been the underdog. I think despite being the reigning world champ she'll go into 2007 worlds as the underdog once again.
I recall many a champion saying, it's easier to get to the top than to stay at the top.
I recall many a champion saying, it's easier to get to the top than to stay at the top.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
Well, the point I was trying to make is even though Kimmie has not been beating the international stars this season, she will not be facing Asada, Kim, Ando and the rest at U.S. nationals.
She has whupped up on all of her American competition. At Skate America she beat Hughes and Taylor soundly (she also beat Asada) and at Eric Bompard she finshed thirty points ahead of the only other American, Christine Zukowski.
Kimmie didn't make the GP final, but she was the second alternate -- again, nothing to write home about perhaps but way ahead of any of her American challengers.
I don't think that the judges will mark her down for such intangibles as "leaving some people cold and bored" or because she hasn't yet built up and enthusiastic fan base.
JMO. We'll see.
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- Joined
- Mar 19, 2006
Hey, I get Toni's point here, for sure. Sometimes I just don't get it - Gabriel Reice (*sp) or Christina Aguilera,
what is the deal with these girls being called hot all the time. Pairs Hilton, even if I didn't know what type she was I wouldn't think to go for her at all. And here some of the world doesn't know incredible beauties like Fumie, Tanith, Shizuka or Yuka on a daily named basis???? Just POVs I spose.Its a Mad World.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Regardless of the numbers all from different judges and competitions. It's hard to think Katy with a permanent 164. pts after her subsequent competitions will continue at that level. Just looking at the cast of characters, Kimmie should win unless she is skating with illness or injury.
Silver and Bronze are the questions. Alyssa, Bebe and Emily all with no faults!
That would be the ideal competition, and a good look at if the USFS has a hand in it for picking the World team.
Although she is not eligible for Worlds, the teenybopper Rachael just may snatch a place on the podium. Though, she too, will have to skate her best.
Joe
Silver and Bronze are the questions. Alyssa, Bebe and Emily all with no faults!
That would be the ideal competition, and a good look at if the USFS has a hand in it for picking the World team.
Although she is not eligible for Worlds, the teenybopper Rachael just may snatch a place on the podium. Though, she too, will have to skate her best.
Joe
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