US Nationals - What are your thoughts?

[dorispulaski]

As to whether the USFSA will allow Kimmie to be beaten if she doesn't skate well:

1996 - Michelle Kwan US & World Champion
1997 - Tara Lipinski US & World Champion

If there is a 'Tara' (say Rachael Flatt) in the wings, USFS will let her beat our current 'Michelle', Kimmie, if Kimmie doesn't skate well.

(And Michelle in 1996 beat an awesome skate by Lu Chen. Kimmie just sort of fell into the World championship, what with Irina, Michelle, Yu Na and Mao not there and Sasha skating dreadfully.) Kimmie is no Michelle (96 version), so Kimmie will need to bring her A game.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Then you have to pick the best of the lot. What I have been trying to say is that this is going to be a competition, not a coronation. Kimmie's position is not so strong that it can be assumed that she just has to show up to win. She could lose very easily. She has the jumps, but better skaters have missed jumps before. She's the one with the best shot at it. That's it.

I agree with you. The coronation is being tossed around with tongue in cheek. I, for one, would never coronate anyone without at least 3 golds at Nats.

Kimmie could miss jumps. Every skater has, and I would say your IF she does it will be not be a shoo in. My personal view is that the only won who could stand up to her IF she does hit her jumps would be Rachael. Americans love 'little dahlings', more than princesses.

In my opinion, there is no clear Podium here at Nats and hence, there is no clear World's Team.

People are free to like whomever they choose. I just have to wonder if Kimmie is going to be a good fit. She is a sweet and pretty child, but she's an athlete. Her presentation is improving and I could see her becoming an elegant skater. (I am thinking of someone like Kerrigan. She was not really an artist or deeply musical, but had good lines and was nice to watch.) It's very possible. Maybe that will be enough. We will have to see who comes along. There are several years, before the next Olys. Kimmie can build her power base with good international results or someone else still has plenty of time.

So far, and because I look for many things in all skaters including 'guts', one has already come along, imo. It's Caroline Zhang. Kimmie will have her battle with her for the Vancouver Olys as well as sevral Asian gals. No shoo in there for anyone at this time.

Joe

 

[R.D.]

I don't see Kimmie losing "very easily" because none of the other ladies is such a strong skater that they can skate rings around her if Kimmie has one missed jump. Kimmie would have to have a major meltdown and/or one of the other skaters would have to have the skate of a lifetime.

I see that as scenario as a possibility but very far from a probability, and therefore the word "easily" is inappropriate.

I agree. What I do think is that Kimmie is more beatable should she be off than say Kwan or Cohen was. But I don't see any skater on the roster who can take advantage of an "average" performance by Kim. Also, she's just one level from the top. I'd say Hughes is one level down from Kim and everyone else has had rather inconsistent results.

 

[SusanBeth]

I do not mean any disrespect by using the word "child". I say that because to me she is a child. She still has a lot of maturing to do. She is not yet an adult. I will admit it does have a bit to do with my own age. I have also referred to Emily as a child (though it might have been "kid") too.

 

[chuckm]

As to whether the USFSA will allow Kimmie to be beaten if she doesn't skate well:

1996 - Michelle Kwan US & World Champion
1997 - Tara Lipinski US & World Champion

If there is a 'Tara' (say Rachael Flatt) in the wings, USFS will let her beat our current 'Michelle', Kimmie, if Kimmie doesn't skate well.

(And Michelle in 1996 beat an awesome skate by Lu Chen. Kimmie just sort of fell into the World championship, what with Irina, Michelle, Yu Na and Mao not there and Sasha skating dreadfully.) Kimmie is no Michelle (96 version), so Kimmie will need to bring her A game.

There are some major, major differences between today and 1996-1997. For one thing, Tara was not subject to age restrictions since she had skated at 1996 Worlds at 13 and was grandfathered in under the new age rules. Tara was 14 in 1997, and she was eligible to go to Worlds.

Tara was also something of a prodigy, with a 3L3L combination that no one else was doing, had finished 3rd at 1996 Nationals, had skated in the GP, and was the 1996-1997 GPF Champion. Meanwhile, Michelle Kwan had to drop out of her GP events that fall with a stress fracture in her toe and as a result she was unable to do her 3T3T combination.

So you had a situation where these two ladies were equal or close to it on paper (Tara stronger in the technical area, Michelle stronfer in the artistic) and both had impressive competitive records.

Interestingly, the following year, TARA was the World Champion and again GPF Champion, and MICHELLE won her US crown back, and the 1998 World title as well.

Today, you have World Champion Kimmie (who is neither a Tara nor a Michelle), but there isn't a Tara in sight. Emily did win US bronze last year, but in the two years since she first appeared at the US Championships in 2005, Emily has just two medals: a bronze at 2005 Junior Worlds and a bronze at Cup of Russia 2006. Rachael Flatt is an excellent skater, but she's never skated at the Senior level at the US Championships before and her only international event was the 2005 NACS, where she placed 3rd as a Junior. She lost the US Championships Junior title last year to Megan Hyatt. And at 14, Rachael won't be eligible to go to Worlds for two more years.

There's just no real comparison there.

 

[chuckm]

I do not mean any disrespect by using the word "child". I say that because to me she is a child. She still has a lot of maturing to do. She is not yet an adult. I will admit it does have a bit to do with my own age. I have also referred to Emily as a child (though it might have been "kid") too.

I'm quite a bit older than these young skaters, too, but to me, once a girl reaches 16, to me she is a young lady, not a child. And Kimmie is very much a young lady and a very intelligent one, at that.

 

[SusanBeth]

I'm quite a bit older than these young skaters, too, but to me, once a girl reaches 16, to me she is a young lady, not a child. And Kimmie is very much a young lady and a very intelligent one, at that.

I have known/raised too many kids to consider a 17 year old as an adult. There's no reason a teenage girl can't be an intelligent young lady and still be a kid.

 

[chuckm]

A young lady is not quite an adult but is also NOT a kid. I have known adults who acted more immature than 16-year-olds, and I have known 16 year-olds who have been more responsible and well-grounded that many adults.

It's never a smart thing to label ALL because you have known SOME. Not all 17-year-olds are "kids". Basic logic 101.

 

[SusanBeth]

You and I have entirely different interpretations of the word "child." I see absolutely no negatives to the term. It simply refers to the stage before adulthood to me. Being a child is not a character flaw.

My apologies for going so far off topic.

We will never agree, so we might as well stop boring people!

 

[dorispulaski]

chuckm, You're just plain wrong in general. In 1995, Tara Lipinski skated like crap at Jr Nationals and finished second to Sydne Vogel and was 4th at Jr. Worlds. In 1996, Tara Lipinski finished 3rd at Nationals and was 15th at Worlds and 5th at Jr. Worlds. She had some 2nd's and 3rd's at the competitions that later were grouped into the Grand Prix. That was it. That was Tara's record coming into the 1997 Nationals in Nashville when she beat Michelle. Crappy. Worse than Emily's record by far, for example. So the USFS has dumped a World Champion before for a skater of no particularly wonderful record at US Nationals. Tara had shown nothing but a bunch of buzz and PR marketing before 1997.
She had 3Lp/3Lp's that she landed...in practice, like Sasha's quad.
She had a dreadful flutz, too. She had shown no ability to compete in World level competion. Which was my point.

By a Tara, I did not mean a competitor who was ineligible to compete at Worlds. I meant a competitor who had her breakthrough performance at this years Nationals.

I don't see USFS dumping Kimmie for someone ineligible, so I shouldn't have mentioned Flatt, though.

 

[LizzieBeth]

While I don't see Kimmie as unbeatable, to me she is the overwhelming favorite. The USFSA has promoted her in the past and she more than lived up to expectations by winning Worlds in her first try.

Her skating in Grand Prix events has already been discussed. She was probably better off being home preparing for Nationals. If she does what she has planned, she will win her first National title.

I agree that Nationals for ladies is very wide open.

Does anyone know how Katy Taylor is doing? Watching her pain at Skate America was very difficult. She looked a little better at the Cheesefest. Anyone have an update?

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

While I don't see Kimmie as unbeatable, to me she is the overwhelming favorite. The USFSA has promoted her in the past and she more than lived up to expectations by winning Worlds in her first try.

]
Not quite sure what this means? Do you mean she won Worlds because the USFS pomoted her?

Her skating in Grand Prix events has already been discussed. She was probably better off being home preparing for Nationals. If she does what she has planned, she will win her first National title.

Continue discussing: She won a silver and bronze medal. Is that terrible? Are your thoughts on figure skating simply a gold or nothing? That would help me to decide whether to read your posts or not.

I agree that Nationals for ladies is very wide open.

You're talking gold or podium? And your interest in Taylor for the win?

Joe

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

chuckm, You're just plain wrong in general. In 1995, Tara Lipinski skated like crap at Jr Nationals and finished second to Sydne Vogel and was 4th at Jr. Worlds. In 1996, Tara Lipinski finished 3rd at Nationals and was 15th at Worlds and 5th at Jr. Worlds. She had some 2nd's and 3rd's at the competitions that later were grouped into the Grand Prix. That was it. That was Tara's record coming into the 1997 Nationals in Nashville when she beat Michelle. Crappy. Worse than Emily's record by far, for example. So the USFS has dumped a World Champion before for a skater of no particularly wonderful record at US Nationals. Tara had shown nothing but a bunch of buzz and PR marketing before 1997.
She had 3Lp/3Lp's that she landed...in practice, like Sasha's quad.
She had a dreadful flutz, too. She had shown no ability to compete in World level competion. Which was my point.

By a Tara, I did not mean a competitor who was ineligible to compete at Worlds. I meant a competitor who had her breakthrough performance at this years Nationals.

I don't see USFS dumping Kimmie for someone ineligible, so I shouldn't have mentioned Flatt, though.

It was in 1997 while watching the TV news program that Diane Sawyer broke in to announce that a junior lady, Tara Lipinski did 3 triple jumps and placed 2nd to Sydney.
Talk about real hype

Joe

 

[LizzieBeth]

]
Not quite sure what this means? Do you mean she won Worlds because the USFS pomoted her?

Continue discussing: She won a silver and bronze medal. Is that terrible? Are your thoughts on figure skating simply a gold or nothing? That would help me to decide whether to read your posts or not.

You're talking gold or podium? And your interest in Taylor for the win?

Joe

Nope. I was thinking back about all the TV coverage around Kimmie at her first appearance at senior Nationals. I think this was because she had a good competitive record at the lower levels and landed the 3A.

I was not disappointed about her skating at the GP events. SA is the first event of a very long season so to me it is kind of unpredictable. Kimmie faltered in the short but came back strong in the long. It is actually strange to me that she did not make the GPF, when you look at the scores.

I watch all skating events to see all the skaters, not because I like just one or two. I went all the way to SA to see Mao, Oda, Meier, Kimmie, D&S and many others that I had not seen in person.

My question on Katy Taylor is because I am hoping she is recovered from her difficulties so she is at her best at Nationals and can be part of the group of skaters fighting for medals. After all, she did very well last year. So I really was just asking for an update on her condition.

 

[Mathman]

I guess I'm just a Candide when it comes to the politics of figure skating. Many of the posts on this thread seem to say that USFS predetermines who they want to win, and that's how it turns out.

To me, Tara won in 1997 because she skated better than Michelle in that contest. If Rachael Flatt skates better than Kimmie this time, what will the judges do?

 

[SusanBeth]

I guess I'm just a Candide when it comes to the politics of figure skating. Many of the posts on this thread seem to say that USFS predetermines who they want to win, and that's how it turns out.

To me, Tara won in 1997 because she skated better than Michelle in that contest. If Rachael Flatt skates better than Kimmie this time, what will the judges do?

How much better? If it's not too wide a margin- send Kimmie to worlds as National champion and give Rachel the Silver. It puts Kimmie in better position for worlds. Of course, they would be a bit kinder to Rachel down the road.

In 97, Kwan had her closest brush with a melt down and Tara was very good. That was too large a difference to put aside.

 

[Mathman]

If it's not too wide a margin- send Kimmie to worlds as National champion and give Rachel the Silver. It puts Kimmie in better position for worlds. Of course, they would be a bit kinder to Rachel down the road.

Oh, I hope not. That's very depressing, if true. Give Rachael an undeserved gold medal somewhere down the line to make up for the one that she earned but they took away from her this time?

 

[Mathman]

PS. BTW, the idea of giving your national champion a big score to impress the international judges at worlds -- sometimes it works out that way, sometimes not. The last three Olympic ladies champions were not the national champions of their own country going in to the Olys.

 

[SusanBeth]

Oh, I hope not. That's very depressing, if true. Give Rachael an undeserved gold medal somewhere down the line to make up for the one that she earned but they took away from her this time?

I think that's overstating it a bit. If sometime in the future there's a close call, then they might give Rachael the benefit. Rachael wouldn't be given a totally undeserved Gold medal.

I just cannot imagine an underaged skater getting the title unless she is better by a huge margin.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think that's overstating it a bit. If sometime in the future there's a close call, then they might give Rachael the benefit. Rachael wouldn't be given a totally undeserved Gold medal.

imagine an underaged skater getting the title unless she is better byI just cannot a huge margin.

Like Caroline Zhang? next year. She still wont be eligible for intl seniors.

Joe