What if Cohen does not win a top 3 spot at Nat's?

[LBC]

If healthy Michelle and Sasha will make the team. Their PCS scores give them the edge. According to a rinkmate over at Sashafans, Sasha was back doing triples last week and a full run through of her program. Said she saw no beilman too. :thumbsup: If true and she doesn't suffer a setback it looks like she'll make TEB. If she skates well there or wins then her stock goes up with the selection process if she should bomb Nats.

I think Michelle is the one who should be more worried than Sasha. She has been much more seriously injured and hasn't skated her programs at all this season. TT is good but then she was wrong about the levels in Johnny's program. She could skate Bolero decently and still beat Kimmie IMO. The question here is whether BOTH Alissa and Kimmie could be either Michelle or Sasha. I don't think that will happen. One maybe but not both. This is assuming they are healthy of course. The real dilema could be if Michelle is still slighly injured and doesn't do well at Nats because of that or can't go to nats at all. Would they put her on the team if she can prove she'll be totally healthy by olympics?

 

[Doggygirl]

According to a rinkmate over at Sashafans, Sasha was back doing triples last week and a full run through of her program. Said she saw no beilman too. :thumbsup:

I know this is OT for this thread, but I'm happy to hear that maybe Sasha is bagging the Biellmann. I thought it looked horrible at Campbell's, and she certainly has a zillion other interesting positions in her bag of tricks that she does much better IMO. Hope to see her at TEB!

DG

 

[orchid]

Not gonna happen you all. Michelle or Sasha will be 1 or 2 at Nationals. I also think Kimmie is a sure bet for third, regardless of how well Alissa spins or competes in the Grand Prix Series. Michelle and Sasha are light years ahead of their closest national competitors. The other ladies are still juniorish in their presentation skills. Emily isn't even on the radar.

Kimmie skates very "juniorishly". and will need an "unwonky" landing for that 3axel to get ahead of Alissa.

Don't forget about Amber and her triple sets....

 

[Bijoux]

Ia

that Sasha won't be placed below 2nd. She is a veteran now and placed 4th in last Olys. The USFSA is counting on her or Michelle to make Oly/world podium, and Sasha has a better chance, IMO, so the judges would hold her up, I feel

 

[orchid]

that Sasha won't be placed below 2nd. She is a veteran now and placed 4th in last Olys. The USFSA is counting on her or Michelle to make Oly/world podium, and Sasha has a better chance, IMO, so the judges would hold her up, I feel

Soooooo, we should expect biased judging at National's? Isn't the COP the be allto end alll to favoritism?

 

[RealtorGal]

The US will send the ladies who finish 1-2-3 on the nationals podium, and they do have a history of being pretty fair about this (except for 1 prior incident involving Paul Wylie and a World Championship...).

I remember many years ago when Elaine Zayak was the reigning U.S. and World Champion, but the following year along came Roz Sumners who skated much better at Nationals and won the title. I remember Uncle Dick commenting how the judges were sending Elaine a clear message to skate better if she wanted to regain her national title--which she never did. Attention and focus turned to Roz. At the time, there was some discussion about how international judges took note of who was the national champion and how that affected their impressions of each skater and how that would adversely impact Elaine.

Then again, they rightfully gave the title to Tara in '97, even though Michelle was the reigning National and World Champion.

 

[mzheng]

If healthy Michelle and Sasha will make the team. Their PCS scores give them the edge. According to a rinkmate over at Sashafans, Sasha was back doing triples last week and a full run through of her program. Said she saw no beilman too. :thumbsup: If true and she doesn't suffer a setback it looks like she'll make TEB. If she skates well there or wins then her stock goes up with the selection process if she should bomb Nats.

I think Michelle is the one who should be more worried than Sasha. She has been much more seriously injured and hasn't skated her programs at all this season. TT is good but then she was wrong about the levels in Johnny's program. She could skate Bolero decently and still beat Kimmie IMO. The question here is whether BOTH Alissa and Kimmie could be either Michelle or Sasha. I don't think that will happen. One maybe but not both. This is assuming they are healthy of course. The real dilema could be if Michelle is still slighly injured and doesn't do well at Nats because of that or can't go to nats at all. Would they put her on the team if she can prove she'll be totally healthy by olympics?

I agree with your evaluation. Sasha is less worry some at this point. About Michelle, though if she is still injure enough can't do Nationals, I doubt she'd ever bother with Olympics or Worlds......But even she wants to go, I believe there got be some skating off test just like USFS did at 1998 with Nancy....otherwise it does not seems fair to others.

 

[orchid]

I agree with your evaluation. Sasha is less worry some at this point. About Michelle, though if she is still injure enough can't do Nationals, I doubt she'd ever bother with Olympics or Worlds......But even she wants to go, I believe there got be some skating off test just like USFS did at 1998 with Nancy....otherwise it does not seems fair to others.

If it ever came down to Michelle NOT winning a top 3 spot and the officials intervened, I believe Michelle would politely decline. She would acknowledge and respect the decision of the judges which placed her below the others. And she would respect the skaters.

Now, does anyone think Sasha would do the same ?

 

[kyla2]

Orchid

I have seen both Kimmie's and Alissa's programs and I think Kimmie's is much better. Plus her jumps are quite solid the majority of the time. She does nothing badly. She also has a potential triple axel in her arsenal. I don't see Alissa trumping Kimmie for third unless Kimmie has a disasterous skate. This is highly unlikely because Kimmie is one tough competitor. She reminds me of Sarah in that respect.

Michelle Kwan WILL be at Nationals and she WILL be at the Olympics. If she fractures something or tears a ligament that would change the story, but I don't see that happening. Michelle Kwan is a tough competitor and she will be there and she will win either 1st or 2nd place. She will never place out of those two spots as long as she is standing and competing at Nationals. When she is no longer able or wanting to compete at a certain level, she will retire. So there is no question of her taking a "bye" unless she is seriously injured. She would never take a bye if she didn't place in the top 3 (ain't gonna happen anyway). Neither would Sasha (give the kid a little credit) unless she was injured. Sasha is also one tough kid to have survived the slings and arrows that have come her way. Neither of these women should ever be underestimated. They won't be at the Olympics to hand the OGM to Irina. They will be there to win. So whoever wins it, will have won it against incredible competition (assuming the ISU judges don't pull a fast one).

 

[RealtorGal]

If it ever came down to Michelle NOT winning a top 3 spot and the officials intervened, I believe Michelle would politely decline. She would acknowledge and respect the decision of the judges which placed her below the others. And she would respect the skaters.

Yeah, right.

 

[mzheng]

If it ever came down to Michelle NOT winning a top 3 spot and the officials intervened, I believe Michelle would politely decline. She would acknowledge and respect the decision of the judges which placed her below the others. And she would respect the skaters.

You could be right. I heard this year Nationals is more important to her than the Olympics; the way she mentioned the Olympics was almost like an after thought when she mentioned 2006 Nationals after 2005's. But the plan could change sometimes.

 

[orchid]

You could be right. I heard this year Nationals is more important to her than the Olympics; the way she mentioned the Olympics was almost like an after thought when she mentioned 2006 Nationals after 2005's. But the plan could change sometimes.

Michelle has always said she takes one event at a time. My bet is the 10th Nat title is her single focus right now. Sure the Olympics are in the back of the mind, but...

 

[R.D.]

Some of us might say MK is a shoo-in as long as she shows up, but I can understand her focusing on Nationals. After all, it's the gateway to the Olympics so you want to do well there. And for anyone else, you'd better bring your A-game- winners take all!

 

[hockeyfan228]

And for anyone else, you'd better bring your A-game- winners take all!

That might be true for the Japanese men, but not for US Ladies. And, given the results of US Nationals and the Olympics in 1998 and 2002, perhaps leaving the A-game at Nationals isn't the best strategy.

 

[R.D.]

True as well. But one also can't sleepwalk there because that won't get you onto the podium unless you're Kwan (or Cohen even?). The others do have to do really well, though. The lowest I see Kwan finishing is 2nd and the lowest I see Cohen finishing is 3rd, given the competition at this point. I don't think the their competition is strong enough to bump them off the podium even on a bad day.

 

[soogar]

True as well. But one also can't sleepwalk there because that won't get you onto the podium unless you're Kwan (or Cohen even?). The others do have to do really well, though. The lowest I see Kwan finishing is 2nd and the lowest I see Cohen finishing is 3rd, given the competition at this point. I don't think the their competition is strong enough to bump them off the podium even on a bad day.

Why do you see Sasha finishing lower than Michelle? Nats will be judged under COP. Unless Michelle has done something miraculous over the summer that greatly improved her spins and increased her extension on her spirals, she's not going to beat Sasha in those areas. As for jumps, both ladies have the same level of tech. Michelle might land all of her jumps clean and Sasha might flub one, ,but it's not going to mean a thing compared to the advantage that Sasha enjoys on all of the other elements.

I think Michelle has something to worry about because Emily is a much higher quality skater than Michelle and Alissa has high level spins combined with the jumps (if she can land them). Then of course if Bebe can get her act together then she'll really have her hands full.

 

[Mathman]

I think Michelle has something to worry about because Emily is a much higher quality skater than Michelle and Alissa has high level spins combined with the jumps (if she can land them). Then of course if Bebe can get her act together then she'll really have her hands full.

Don't forget Kimmie!

 

[attyfan]

IMO, something magical happens to Michelle at Nats -- especially when an Oly berth is on the line -- and it is likely this magic will be (legitimately) reflected in high PCS scores. If Michelle doesn't do well, IMO, it will be because her injury is more severe than we have been led to believe, and she can't -- and if this is so, she will probably retire (she has more to gain from behaving in a manner consistent with her reputation for sportsmanship than from going to Olys injured)

 

[R.D.]

Why do you see Sasha finishing lower than Michelle? Nats will be judged under COP. Unless Michelle has done something miraculous over the summer that greatly improved her spins and increased her extension on her spirals, she's not going to beat Sasha in those areas. As for jumps, both ladies have the same level of tech. Michelle might land all of her jumps clean and Sasha might flub one, ,but it's not going to mean a thing compared to the advantage that Sasha enjoys on all of the other elements.

I agree with you that Cohen has the advantage now that Cop rewards different aspects of skating and not just emotion. However, I think two things take place at Nats that switches that advantage over to Kwan: the first thing is that Kwan has been so dominant that I think the judges will tend to try to keep her there unless she's clearly outperformed. The second thing is that MK always finds something within her (a notable exception being last year) and simply shines at Nats, to the point where nobody on their best day can beat her. (Another thing: history is on her side. But as I said earlier, even if Cohen wins I believe that's history in itself as well.)

Even if Cohen wins the SP next year, I look for MK to come blazing back. I just don't have enough confidence in SC to think that she could beat Kwan on a good day. But if she can prove me wrong, props to her, man.

 

[R.D.]

IMO, something magical happens to Michelle at Nats -- especially when an Oly berth is on the line -- and it is likely this magic will be (legitimately) reflected in high PCS scores. If Michelle doesn't do well, IMO, it will be because her injury is more severe than we have been led to believe, and she can't -- and if this is so, she will probably retire (she has more to gain from behaving in a manner consistent with her reputation for sportsmanship than from going to Olys injured)

I also agree here. In fact, if she DOESN'T win this one, I will attribute it to her "injury". (I use this in quotation marks because of the uncertainty that some fans have.) But I do not see MK retiring unless she absolutely can't go to the Olys due to injury. She doesn't strike me as someone who would simply throw in the towel like that. I think she said she wanted the Olympic experience as well, so maybe she'll go anyway? Why retire JUST before the Olympics unless you absolutely can't go? Doesn't quite fit together IMO...

Now, if MK is injured to the point where she can't compete at Nats (or can't be at the top of her game), then I think chances of retirement go up. I think this is the whole reason she's still here...don't think she would bother to stay until 2010 the way things are going.

But what about Cohen? I don't know why, but I don't see her staying after 2006. ESPECIALLY should she win the OGM or World title. Maybe if she doesn't win Nats she'll stay to win the '07 title, but who knows at this point.