What will the 2010/2011 bring us in ICE DANCE?

[colleen o'neill]

I'm so depressed over Tessa & Scott..:disapp: (crossing all apendages for Tessa )..but I'm trying to revive my enthusiasm by reminding myself of how curious I've been to see C/P's programs. I'm hoping that working with Chris Dean will have helped them to make a breakthrough in expression. Before that, we'll get to how W/P acquit themselves at NHK..Won't that be the first time we get to see how Etta James' At Last works in the SD ? I know someone else is using it ( I forget who at the moment ) but don't think it's been used in competition yet..will it work for the GW ?

 

[gmyers]

I really thought the major story would be the massive advantage of VMDW but now VM look sidelined maybe doing one GP and no GPF. Hope she gets better and everything but they have gold and many thought they would just be highly paid show skaters post olympics.

 

[dorispulaski]

http://www.isuresults.com/ws/ws/wsdance.htm

If you look at the updated version of the dance ratings:
1. D&W (Waltz SD, La Traviata, La Boheme; Postman/romantic tango FD)
2. P&B (have a lame SD to Amelie and a not so great FD to Chaplin)
3. Kerrs (injured, but planning to skate the GP) SD Etta James/Shut up and Let Me Go and FD to Muse again
4. V&M (out for the GP season)
5. DomShabs (retired)
6. Faiella and Scali (no real news about their programs, but they are to SD My Fair Lady FD Flamenco (Manolete)
)
7. Khokhlova and Novitski (retired)
8. Capellini and Lanotte (have a really pleasant SD to Que sera sera, but the FD to Our Love is Easy needs work)
9. C&P (Dean choreo)
10. SamBates (out for the GP)
11. Weaver and Poje (Etta James/ Dancing Cheek to Cheek SD, Come what May and Tango de Roxane FD)
12. Hubbells (their SD & FD were shown at Finlandia)
13. Chock Zuerlein (good SD to Padam, Padam, but they had to redo their FD, and early reports are not great for it)
14. Shibutanis (excellent FD to Smile and Let's Face the Music & Dance, which placed 2nd at Nebelhorn-they had a fall in the SD to the Carousel Waltz)
15. Huang & Zheng CHN (SD Waltz Domshabs used for 2008/2009 from Shostakovich, FD Singing in the Rain)
16. Gorshkova / Butikov (Pretty good SD to a Russian Waltz, but One of the most stomach turning Latin medley FDs I've ever seen to the faux chacha "Do the chachacha")
17. Bobrova / Soloviev (Their programs looked pretty good to me, from the Russian test skate. SD to Tom Jones' Delilah, FD Melody of the White Nights)
18. Ralph/Hill
19. Rubleva / Shefer (retired)
20. Monko / Khaliavin (skating the JGP)
21. Hoffman/Zavozin (Their Witch & Ordinary guy FD is pretty good)
22. Mysliveckova / Novak (They have a pretty good SD (Battagliero and Alexander's Ragtime Band as a quickstep) and scored lev 4 / lev3 on the GW sequences. Their FD is kind of odd, partially to Jessica Rabbit and Money)
23. Alessandrini / Vaturi ITA
24. Hermanns (GER)
25. Ilinykh / Katsapalov (neither of their programs was in great shape at the Russian test skate, according to TAT)

These ranking determine in what order the skaters take the ice in the SD in their GP events.

As a result at NHK: (next post)

 

[dorispulaski]

If I've done this right, the SD start order will be:

5 Dora TUROCZI / Balazs MAJOR HUN 5 (56th)
4 Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND GBR 4 (39th)
2 Xiaoyang YU / Chen WANG CHN 2 (34th)
7 Cathy REED / Chris REED JPN 7 (28th)
8 Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV RUS 8 (25th)
3 Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Matej NOVAK CZE 3 (22nd)
10 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI USA 9 (14th)
1 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE CAN 1 (12th)
6 Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE ITA 6 (8th)
9 Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE USA 9 (1st)

It will be a tough fight for 3rd & maybe even for second. Although I&K beat the Shibs handily at JW last year, Maia has grown, and they were well rewarded at Nebelhorn for their FD, which scored ahead of Capellini/Lanotte there. Weaver & Poje won 4CC's last year. And M&N had a very respectable outing at Nebelhorn, particularly in the SD. Davis & White had to redo their SD, so they might not win that segment of the competition. It will depend on how the caller calls their GW segments.

This was not a great draw for I&K, particularly since they chose to arrive at the Russian test skate not yet in tiptop shape. They could finish as high as 3rd or as low as 5th.

I'm looking forward to seeing this competition!

Second competition is Skate Canada, and without V&M, it's a very weak field:


The SD start order will be this way:
5 Stefanie FROHBERG / Tim GIESEN GER 3 (54th)
2 Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM CAN 1 (35th)
10 Rachel TIBBETTS / Collin BRUBAKER USA 7 (33rd)
4 Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES FRA 2 (31st)
7 Lorenza ALESSANDRINI / Simone VATURI ITA 5 (23rd)
8 Kristina GORSHKOVA / Vitali BUTIKOV RUS 6 (16th)
9 Madison CHOCK / Greg ZUERLEIN USA 7 (13th)
1 Vanessa CRONE / Paul POIRIER CAN 1 (9th)
6 Sinead KERR / John KERR GBR 4 (3rd)

It will be very surprising if C&P don't finish 2nd here, and given that the Kerrs are injured, they might even be first.

Cup of China has
9 Isabella CANNUSCIO / Ian LORELLO USA 7 (46th)
2 Xueting GUAN / Meng WANG CHN 2 (45th)
4 Xiaoyang YU / Chen WANG CHN 2 (34th)
6 Nora HOFFMANN / Maxim ZAVOZIN HUN 4 (21st)
1 Kharis RALPH / Asher HILL CAN 1 (18th)
8 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV RUS 6 (17th)
3 Xintong HUANG / Xun ZHENG CHN 2 (15th)
10 Madison HUBBELL / Keiffer HUBBELL USA 7 (12th)
7 Federica FAIELLA / Massimo SCALI ITA 5 (6th)
5 Nathalie PECHALAT / Fabian BOURZAT FRA 3 (2nd)

This is another very competitive field. I can't tell you who will win of F&S and P&B, and I expect H&Z to fight it out with B&S for 3rd. Probably 3rd goes to B&S, based on political pull(which you can never wholly ignore), but more importantly, they are coming into the season very polished looking with good programs. One should not immediiately rule out the Huang and Zheng, given that this is at home. They could take China's very first GP dance medal. And the Hubbell's were a little rough, but their SD was good, and they will have had plenty of time to iron out problems. 4th and 5th should be hotly contested.

 

[dorispulaski]

Onward to Skate America. The earlier GP events will have shuffled things around, so I'm going to group the teams guessing how they will do :

The class of the group:
8 Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE USA 6
5 Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE ITA 3

Fighting it out for 3rd through 6th:
1 Vanessa CRONE / Paul POIRIER CAN 1
10 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI USA 6 (never underestimate the plus of skating at home)
7 Ekaterina RIAZANOVA / Ilia TKACHENKO RUS 5 (finished
2 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE CAN 1

Everybody else
6 Cathy REED / Chris REED JPN 4
9 Lynn KRIENGKRAIRUT / Logan GIULIETTI-SCHMITT USA 6
3 Stefanie FROHBERG / Tim GIESEN GER 2
4 Lorenza ALESSANDRINI / Simone VATURI ITA 3

Cup of Russia
Class of the field, supposing the Kerrs have healed:
6 Federica FAIELLA / Massimo SCALI ITA 6
4 Sinead KERR / John KERR GBR 4

Fighting it out for 3rd through 8th (really, this is a very strong field here)
5 Nora HOFFMANN / Maxim ZAVOZIN HUN 5
7 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV RUS 7
9 Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV RUS 7
8 Kristina GORSHKOVA / Vitali BUTIKOV RUS 7
10 Madison HUBBELL / Keiffer HUBBELL USA 8
2 Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Matej NOVAK CZE 2


The others:
1 Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM CAN 1
3 Zoe BLANC / Pierre-Loup BOUQUET FRA 3

I&K will be lucky to pull out a third here.
So best case, they have two 3rds, worst case C&P have a 2nd & a 4th. The tie breaker is the highest finish, and C&P go to the GPF again.

TEB-with V&M out, a really weak field

In a class by themselves
6 Nathalie PECHALAT / Fabian BOURZAT FRA 3

There will be 2 first time GP medallists from this group.
3 Xintong HUANG / Xun ZHENG CHN 2
8 Ekaterina RIAZANOVA / Ilia TKACHENKO RUS 5
10 Madison CHOCK / Greg ZUERLEIN USA 6

The others
1 Kharis RALPH / Asher HILL CAN 1
9 Isabella CANNUSCIO / Ian LORELLO USA 6
4 Zoe BLANC / Pierre-Loup BOUQUET FRA 3
5 Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES FRA 3
7 Dora TUROCZI / Balazs MAJOR HUN 4

Huang and Zheng might make the GP Final!

So the GPF I expect to be

D&W
F&S
P&B
C&L
Kerrs

The 6th spot could be Huang/Zheng, C/P, B/S or R/T. It will be a hard row for I&K to make it, because they are in 2 of the most competitive events.

 

[backoutsideedge]

Onward to Skate America. The earlier GP events will have shuffled things around, so I'm going to group the teams guessing how they will do :

The class of the group:
8 Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE USA 6
5 Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE ITA 3

Fighting it out for 3rd through 6th:
1 Vanessa CRONE / Paul POIRIER CAN 1

Um, why do you think C&P will be battling it out for 3rd through 6th spots when they HANDILY beat C&L at Worlds last year?

 

[dorispulaski]

Well, here's why I think that. (My bias is that this team does not enthrall me particularly, and I felt they looked worse last year than the year before, with that inane FD program that you needed program notes to decode supposedly about Orpheus while the music was Bohemian Rhapsody .)

Earlier this year, C/L won the SD at Nebelhorn over Pechalat / Bourzat, and finished 2nd overall. C/L have an excellent SD, and one should remember the SD is based on the G/W. C/L had a pretty good GW, finishing 7th in the CD at Worlds. C/P finished 9th in the same segment.

The C/L's FD, not so much, but they have had an early outing with it, and I hope to see it much improved here at NHK.

At Worlds, C/L were not skating like themselves at all-post Olympic slump I think. And they had that dreadful Requiem FD last year.

And at the Olympics, C/L were 12th, C/P were 14th-the difference was even greater except C/L faded in the FD.

And even at Worlds, C/L were 7th and C/P were 9th in the Golden Waltz. In the OD, C/L had some slipups, but still had higher PCS than C/P in the OD.

C/P have the advantage and disadvantage of Chris Dean choreo this year. Quite often, Chris's choreo has ignored COP issues (see the career of Summersett/Gilles) The dance will be interesting, but may turn out short on tech, particularly in a year when tech scoring is radically different and very picky compared to last year. Likewise, I was not thrilled with C/P's Golden Waltz last year. It is not a dance that is very forgiving of posture issues.

C/P may overtake C/L here...or not. I'm expecting C/P to be well behind C/L in the SD.

 

[backoutsideedge]

Interesting that you're expecting that when you haven't even seen C&P's short dance. Also, I definitely do not expect Carol Lane and Juris Razgulaevs to ignore Dean's CoP issues. Lane's teams are always very well prepared when it comes to CoP.

Personally I thought C&P's FD was gorgeous last year. It showed maturity on their part (esp compared to their rivals S&B) and was chock full of transitions and interesting moves. To me, they have some of the best and most interesting choreo out there.

 

[colleen o'neill]

:think: I thought there was some very lovely and difficult stuff in C/P's FD last year , but to me, the whole concept didn't hang together as well as I would have liked. The music, on it's own, didn't bother me so much..I generally feel you don't have to stick to themes that the music was written for, but it does make it that much more difficult when the music and /or lyrics , are very well known. Who can listen to Bohemian Rhapsody without having the lyrics running in their brain ?..Still , it was the ongoing costume disaster that really spoiled it for me, and though the final costumes were a big improvement , they didn't speak of O&E to me either..they neither related to the music nor the choreography.So the whole thing just didn't gel at all, and many of the nice choreographic touches probably went unappreciated , because who knew what they were doing ? If they'd even put her ( them ? ) in a modern-ish version of a Grecian tunic , it would have helped a lot.

I'm sure L/R will be paying attention to CoP content, and I'm hoping there will have been a major posture improvement. It's so hard to predict, because their problem areas are where C/L tend to shine..C/L can be more mistake prone and maybe less precise..So strictly between those two teams , it seems like it will come down to which team worked hardest where they needed to.

 

[dorispulaski]

Interesting that you're expecting that when you haven't even seen C&P's short dance.

Ah, but I have seen their Golden Waltz, and C/L's Golden Waltz (and C/L's SD). P&B were 4th last year at Worlds, and C/L beat them in the SD. That's what my expectations are based on. If C/P have really slaved over the GW part of their SD, who knows? But if the past is any predicter of the future, that's how I'd expect it to go.

Furthermore, C/P are skating their SD to Alicia Keyes' Fallin'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZSzS4_kHCI

The SD's that have been scoring the best have had very slow, strong waltz beats in 3/4 time, like Edith Piaf's Padam, Padam. Fallin and songs like it (6/8 time, I think) have been very conducive to getting the dancers' GW timing messed up, from what I have seen of SD's so far, yielding low scores in the GW Pattern Dance segments.

Doesn't mean I can't be totally wrong
C/P could overcome this, but I am not betting on it.

:

I'm sure L/R will be paying attention to CoP content, and I'm hoping there will have been a major posture improvement. It's so hard to predict, because their problem areas are where C/L tend to shine..C/L can be more mistake prone and maybe less precise..So strictly between those two teams , it seems like it will come down to which team worked hardest where they needed to.

I think this is absolutely true. Colleen, you explained very well the problems with C/P's last year's FD. I saw that program the same way. I liked their Perfect Day FD from the previous year. It had a lot of very ingenious, original stuff in it. Bohemian Rhapsody was just a mess, though, IMO. Who knows what this year will bring.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

I thought C/L's FD was one of the best from last season. It was well thought out, with some stellar positions and they managed to weave their theme throughout. Only Virtue/Moir and Faeilla/Scali had better FDs, imo. I agree with the rest, but I cannot imagine the Shibutanis (never having skated a Golden Waltz in competition before this season) or the Russian team beating them.

 

[backoutsideedge]

C&L or C&P? IMO C&L's FD was totally forgettable.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Nope, Cappellini and Lanotte's FD. But I realize how poorly that thought parses out. C/L's FD from the 09/10 season was one of my favourites of that season. At Skate America, I cannot imagine the Shibs or R/T really providing that much of challenge to Crone/Poirier and I expect that Weaver/Poje will provide most of the punch. I also think that Crone/Poirier could beat the Kerrs at Skate Canada (hometown push + Kerrs' struggling with the levels.

 

[SamuraiKike]

C&L or C&P? IMO C&L's FD was totally forgettable.

That-s the beaty of ice skating and personal preferences in general.. I still can relive clearly from memory appelliniLanotte FD , with her awesome facial expressions according to the theme and their diagonal sequence which I loved, while I can barely remember anything out of CronePoirier except for one of their lifts fitting to the change in tempo in the music.

That being said.. with VM out, CronePoirier have a great opportunity to be on the raise as top canadian team in front of the judges, while CappelliniLanotte will still be the second italians. Vanessa and Paul are not as polished as the italians but they have greater chemistry. I will be rooting for both teams definetly this season.

 

[KKonas]

I thought C/L's FD was one of the best from last season. It was well thought out, with some stellar positions and they managed to weave their theme throughout. Only Virtue/Moir and Faeilla/Scali had better FDs, imo. I agree with the rest, but I cannot imagine the Shibutanis (never having skated a Golden Waltz in competition before this season) or the Russian team beating them.

Interesting choice. Didn't think C&L's FD was all that memorable. They skated it poorly at Worlds, when she fell on the twizzles, which overall were their worst element as they were never in sync in that performance.

 

[herios]

Following today's SD, one thing is clear for me, FINALLY, Weaver / Poje are poised to regain their place on the canadian world team, as they started with the right foot.

 

[herios]

IP, no, I am taking one step at a time, I won't forecast here anything, things can happen (God forbid, like Tessa's surgery in 2008, who would've thought?). But one can dream, as all these athletes are unbelievably young, the olders in the whole bunch are Anrew Poje and Scott Moir, only 23, so, if they want to stay in and develop they could last and grow many more years. I am just enjoying it, and say I am lucky to witness the whole thing.
And yes, even if Paul and Islam will be only 4th this year at canadians, that would be a respectable result imo, The jeopardy of a debut with a bang and then not do much for a while, like Weaver and Poje did, is what I am afraid of. They also managed to win right away a bronze at canadians in 2007, after just a few months together, a bronze at junior worlds and then in 2008-09, they have stagnated. That is wjhy I am skeptical about all the fuss, until i am seeing the international judges feedback.

Back to our discussion with Coleen and ImaginaryProgue, what happened last night at Skate Canada just confirmed my expectation. That P/I will not be able to challenge C/P. The last two are way ahead techincally and while have along way to grow artistically, P/I will need to work a lot in both aspects. Senior cicuit is a totaly different ballgame than juniors. When V/M moved up to seniors, they became instant top contenders, because they were exceptional. P/I are quite good, but not exceptional. Based on the good start W/P had at NHK, P/I will be behind 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in Canada.

 

[herios]

Ah, but I have seen their Golden Waltz, and C/L's Golden Waltz (and C/L's SD). P&B were 4th last year at Worlds, and C/L beat them in the SD. That's what my expectations are based on. If C/P have really slaved over the GW part of their SD, who knows? But if the past is any predicter of the future, that's how I'd expect it to go.

.

Doris, are you still expecting after what you have seen from C/P, they would lose to C/L at SA?

I will tell you my feeling is they will be in the final flight at worlds, V/M in or out. Save this message and we can check back in March

 

[colleen o'neill]

I agree completely that 4th would be a great finish for P/I at nationals,and I'm not thinking that they should bump C/P or W/P. I always thought C/P would be safe for this year at least...I'll be watching CoC to see how R/H are shaping up but I'm thinking things are not looking good for them..All of this is assuming, of course, that V/M will be at nationals.If R/H should finish 5th, I think they'll still get funding ,but not the prime assignments. Do I have that figured right ?

I'd beg to argue that P/I are pretty exceptional, considering the length of time they'd been together at their senior debut Vs. the length of time V/M had been together at theirs...But let's face it , it's almost useless to compare to V/M, or be looking for another couple to duplicate the way they burst on the scene. All the stars aligned there. Both partners very talented, paired very young, both desiring to commit to their sport, able to touch their audience , as they can. It just doesn't all come together that way too often.

Of course, what makes the V/M - D/W story so compelling. Charlie and Meryl have a similar background , but in another country, both couples come to prominence at the same time (rare enough), then they wind up with the same coaches and a friendship as well as a rivalry.I don't think either couple invites comparison , and may not for some time.

And that's why I feel it's such a wrong step for the P/I camp to encourage comparison to V/M. Those young skaters shouldn't have to try to live up to V/M's progress ,mainly because of her appearance. There's lots to admire..let them be admired for themselves. They're extremely promising , but Ice Dance around the world is filled with promise right now.I always hate it when "The Next One" syndrome raises it's ugly head..I really hope they'll be spared.

In the States I don't know what will happen between C/S and the Shibs..and I really want to see what's up with the Hubbells..

Dang. I've rambled.

 

[dorispulaski]

Doris, are you still expecting after what you have seen from C/P, they would lose to C/L at SA?

I will tell you my feeling is they will be in the final flight at worlds, V/M in or out. Save this message and we can check back in March

No-not because of C/P's gains, because I expected those. What I did not expect was C/L to become so disheartened and regress so much. I think C/L are in the same position P/B were for so many years behind DelSchoes who it must have seemed to them would never retire. F/S seem to wish to stay on through Sochi...I'm sure it seems endless to C/L. It is not every couple that can fight their way up through a team firmly in first place in their country, especially once that team has medalled at Worlds.

Not every team is K/P in the past or D/W in the present in that respect-able to stay focussed while waiting your turn, or able to surpass the old champion before they decide to retire.

And if V/M decide to stay in till Sochi, once Tessa recovers from surgery, if she does, all the younger Canadian couples will have the same level of dispair to deal with.