Which layout does Trusova need to win?

SkateSkates

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I would like to see:

4Lutz
4Toe+3Toe
3Axel
4Toe
3Lutz+3Loop
3Lutz+half loop+3Sal
3Flip

She should probably just ignore the 4Sal forever, it's too swingy for her and the 3Axel is worth more between SP + LP. 4Flip is maybe worthwhile, but again the 3Axel should be given more importance than it, and this content is plenty. She should go for consistency.

I would also like to see this layout. It’s the best way to maximize success and GOE, which is what really cost her last season. And if she’s spending more time prioritizing the 3A, which I hope she is given the fact that she can use it in the SP, it should hopefully become more stable in competition.
 

Arbitrary

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I would also like to see this layout. It’s the best way to maximize success and GOE, which is what really cost her last season. And if she’s spending more time prioritizing the 3A, which I hope she is given the fact that she can use it in the SP, it should hopefully become more stable in competition.

This is a lyaout for losers. 3Lz-1Eu-3S is nothing compared to 4T-1Eu-3S (or better 3F).
Trusova is the only 2019-20 skater who succeded to backlog a quad combo and backlogged it's more or less the same BV against 4Lz3T of her concurrents. Moreover I don't understand why she dropped this 4Lz3T herself? Was it a kind "mine-yours" game of the coaches of the Crystal Dome? If true it could be a good reason to leave.

PLU mentioned it took few days on the ice to revive all her quads and add 4Lo. Let pretend he didn't lie here...
 

Skuratov

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.

Having said that, how many quads does Trusova need to win with her skating quality?


Alena Kostornaia: Similar to Kihira, Kostornaia with three triple axels should also be coming out to a victory against a four-quad Trusova, but with the programs she had this season, the margin should be narrower than that of Kihira.


So the question is, what kind of layout would have Trusova needed to secure a victory no matter which competition she entered? Or do you disagree with what I said here, in which case I'd like to hear why. Which other current skaters should have been considered?

Answer is simple: 4 quads. Maths doesn't lie.

Alëna's SB was 247.59 at GPF skating clean her SP and FS. She didn't change her layouts. With the same content she was unable to break this mark at EC. So lest's take 247.59 points like the record to overcome.

Now, let's take Sasha's SB performance: Skate Canada.
She tried 4 quads, 3 quads were sucessful. She lost 5 points on the failed 4S and -1 point for the fall.
She got 166.62 points for this FS. Let's suppose she lands her 4S clean. She regains 9.7 points for the jump's BV and doesn't lose 1 point for the deduction. All other elements stay without changes.
All other Tech. Elements + 4S + Deduction for fall
95.35 + 9.7 + 1 = 106.05.

106.05 (TES) + 67.42(PCS) = 173.47
FS=173.47 + SP=74.70 = Total Score: 248.17.

248.17 > 247.59

I'm not considering positive GOE for the clean 4S. Let's be very conservative and think that the Judges give her +GOE =1 for the 4S, then 249.17 > 247.59.
So, a [SP laytout without a 3Axel but with a 3Lz+3Lo combo] + a[FS layout with 4 Quads and 3Lz+3Lo combo]
would be enough to beat Alëna at any ISU Competition: GPF, EC.

A similar FS layout with 5 Quads (a 4Flip added, BV=11 +GOE) could have produced a Total Score of >>260 pts. without a 3Axel on SP, with the same "low" PCS.

Only Trusova can beat Trusova.
 

Skatesocs

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This is a lyaout for losers. 3Lz-1Eu-3S is nothing compared to 4T-1Eu-3S (or better 3F).

Why is it a layout for losers when she can end up doing a much more impressive combo with that? The 4T in the combo you mentioned was never as good as her solo ones to begin to me, and then she had a very laboured +1Lo+3S, and I think she even cheated that Sal take off (but I need to look this up). This should be getting huge deductions no matter what she ended up getting this season for it. Ideally, she and everyone WOULD put their best elements in and get the most points for quality. Trusova isn't competing against a field full of quadsters. If she got a 3A and maximized GOE and improved PCS that would be ideal.
 

Arbitrary

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The Board tends to compensate Trusova's layout with zeroing her PCS. If ISU ever decides to separate technique and artistry among classes or categories Trusova may gain and even win some Majors.
You may qualify that 4X > 3X > 2X in terms of COP, but PCS is not formalized.

If a quadster lands 3 quads and carshes 2 more he/she still clearly wins agains some mediocre no-quad program. Regardless of PCS.
But when technical cores are too close the Board clearly awards places per a pre-defined list.
 

Arbitrary

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Why is it a layout for losers when she can end up doing a much more impressive combo with that? The 4T in the combo you mentioned was never as good as her solo ones to begin to me, and then she had a very laboured +1Lo+3S, and I think she even cheated that Sal take off (but I need to look this up). This should be getting huge deductions no matter what she ended up getting this season for it. Ideally, she and everyone WOULD put their best elements in and get the most points for quality. Trusova isn't competing against a field full of quadsters. If she got a 3A and maximized GOE and improved PCS that would be ideal.

The outstanding layout of Trusova inlcuded two backlogged quads. One within the combo. It's still a rare beast among male skaters.
If doing that plain layout with three quads in the beginning and nothing fancy backlogged, Sasha immediately falls to the level of others (Scherbakova, Lui, Valieva, Kostornaya...) where those others clearly skin&eat her alive with the help of the Board.

And her 4T-Eu-3S wasn't bad, sometimes even having very positive GOE.
 

Blades of Passion

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Her choreography and performance and quality with those overly quadded programs suffered.

LOL at saying that a 3 Quad and Triple Axel program is "for losers". It's still a harder jump layout than any other woman in the world has ever attempted. :laugh:

Also curious, what about Shcherbackova? I don't know if I think she could do a 3A actually...

Shcherbackova looks like a puberty victim waiting to happen to me. Trusova's body type seems like it should stay more stable.
 

Skatesocs

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Shcherbackova looks like a puberty victim waiting to happen to me. Trusova's body type seems like it should stay more stable.

:slink: I remember a friend and me coming to the same conclusion. Even the jumps from Trusova tend to look sturdier, but I think Shcherbackova's 4Lz tends to be more around usually. Seeing her compete this season, I'm not sure I want to jump to conclusions I guess. But her axel has always been bad.
 

Arbitrary

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Her choreography and performance and quality with those overly quadded programs suffered.

LOL at saying that a 3 Quad and Triple Axel program is "for losers". It's still a harder jump layout than any other woman in the world has ever attempted. :laugh:



Shcherbackova looks like a puberty victim waiting to happen to me. Trusova's body type seems like it should stay more stable.

I'm in deep doubt we will ever see a stable 3Ax from Trusova. She said more than once she cannot jump face forward due to some psychological issues. Lack of 3Ax connected to quadless SP really kills her.
She has to compensate not so few points in the FP, doing more and more complex layouts.

Would be nice to have 3Ax, yes. But what she should do if it never happens? Try 5T? She may, actually, but the Board would go insane.
 

kolyadafan2002

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Answer is simple: 4 quads. Maths doesn't lie.

Alëna's SB was 247.59 at GPF skating clean her SP and FS. She didn't change her layouts. With the same content she was unable to break this mark at EC. So lest's take 247.59 points like the record to overcome.

Now, let's take Sasha's SB performance: Skate Canada.
She tried 4 quads, 3 quads were sucessful. She lost 5 points on the failed 4S and -1 point for the fall.
She got 166.62 points for this FS. Let's suppose she lands her 4S clean. She regains 9.7 points for the jump's BV and doesn't lose 1 point for the deduction. All other elements stay without changes.
All other Tech. Elements + 4S + Deduction for fall
95.35 + 9.7 + 1 = 106.05.

106.05 (TES) + 67.42(PCS) = 173.47
FS=173.47 + SP=74.70 = Total Score: 248.17.

248.17 > 247.59

I'm not considering positive GOE for the clean 4S. Let's be very conservative and think that the Judges give her +GOE =1 for the 4S, then 249.17 > 247.59.
So, a [SP laytout without a 3Axel but with a 3Lz+3Lo combo] + a[FS layout with 4 Quads and 3Lz+3Lo combo]
would be enough to beat Alëna at any ISU Competition: GPF, EC.

A similar FS layout with 5 Quads (a 4Flip added, BV=11 +GOE) could have produced a Total Score of >>260 pts. without a 3Axel on SP, with the same "low" PCS.

Only Trusova can beat Trusova.

Yes, maths is clear.
If she landed the 4S clean she would NOT regain +9.7, as she already got that BV for quad. She would have got +4.85+ 1. Also that's not how GOE works, shed get less than a point for +1. I'll use your maths anyway and subtract 4.85 from it, and shed be under Alena...
 

Skatesocs

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I rewatched the Russian Test Skates LP from Trusova: https://youtu.be/xdcKxJPfQU0?t=78

While I still wish this were better choreography, I do think if she had retained it and focused on delivering it to her very best ability (and landed+rotated everything), she'd have deserved more appreciation for her ability than she got starting from the CS event she skated at. I don't think I had watched it before Blades of Passion suggested it on different threads. Really like that opening until the combo spin happens. The solo 4T does look good in terms of amplitude even if I wish there was more purity of technique to it, and her spins aren't bad even if could be better there too. Hopefully, she'll be coached better than she was this season. It's really the lack of 3A in her two programs that would keep her closer to her competition (who still do other aspects better, but this is much better than during much of the competitive season) - and make her beatable. Choreography kept the same, with a 3A here, she'd deserve the top spot no doubt. Because then I would need to see a 4S from Rika to claim gold.

But hopefully she'll do even better programs.
 

yume

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Just to defend Kihira, consider her Skate Canada SP but put in a lutz instead of a loop. That gets her to 82 points in the short fairly easily. Then, consider her 4CC free skate in which she basically zeros out a 3A. While she partially made up for it with a second 3T, in total it cost her about 8 points (including any PCS lost). Thus, she could realistically score near 160 points in a clean FS without a quad, giving her a total score of 242. Higher if she figures out a way to get more GOE on her jumps.

Well, i said no way she will get 245+ but a 235-240+ score is possible . So yeah 242 a score sligthly higher than 240 is possible for her. Actually i think her max this season was 83 in SP with 3lz and 160 in FS in a day judges are in a good mood. So a total score of 243. But seeing how she often suprisingly gets "low" scores for what she puts on ice and her pcs that usually decrease as the season go by while others' increase, she has more chances for 235+ imo. Not that i think there should be 15 points between her and Kostornaya who can get 250+.
 

Skatesocs

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Not that i think there should be 15 points between her and Kostornaya who can get 250+.

Yeah as I implied in OP, I'd say Kihira should be outscoring Kostornaia overall, each at their best.
 

kolyadafan2002

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I rewatched the Russian Test Skates LP from Trusova: https://youtu.be/xdcKxJPfQU0?t=78

While I still wish this were better choreography, I do think if she had retained it and focused on delivering it to her very best ability (and landed+rotated everything), she'd have deserved more appreciation for her ability than she got starting from the CS event she skated at. I don't think I had watched it before Blades of Passion suggested it on different threads. Really like that opening until the combo spin happens. The solo 4T does look good in terms of amplitude even if I wish there was more purity of technique to it, and her spins aren't bad even if could be better there too. Hopefully, she'll be coached better than she was this season. It's really the lack of 3A in her two programs that would keep her closer to her competition (who still do other aspects better, but this is much better than during much of the competitive season). Choreography kept the same, with a 3A here, she'd deserve the top spot no doubt. But hopefully she'll do even better programs.

For me, technique doesnt matter in terms of ladies quads as nobody can do them properly.
Trusova doesnt have bad 4T in terms of technique, not as good as elizabeta Tut but not bad.
Her lutz at least has a solid outside edge, which is more than other female 4Lz jumpers can claim. She also does less prerotation on flip and lutz than other female flip and lutz jumpers.
Again, I'm nor claiming her technqiue is brilliant, but compared to the other female quad jumpers it's quite nice.

Back to the +eu+3S, I say this from personal experience. The eu gives better rhythm, and requires less strength whereas for +3T you have to get faster rotation and muscle the height and rotation more than for a +eu+3S. Generally speaking this was true for all training mates, and we all landed +eu+3S before +3T combinations. It's also easier to maintain speed which helps with jump takeoff.
In fact I'd go as far to say some people found +eu+3S easier than solo 3S due to the jump entrance rhythm.
 

Arbitrary

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For me, technique doesnt matter in terms of ladies quads as nobody can do them properly.
Trusova doesnt have bad 4T in terms of technique, not as good as elizabeta Tut but not bad.
Her lutz at least has a solid outside edge, which is more than other female 4Lz jumpers can claim. She also does less prerotation on flip and lutz than other female flip and lutz jumpers.
Again, I'm nor claiming her technqiue is brilliant, but compared to the other female quad jumpers it's quite nice.

Back to the +eu+3S, I say this from personal experience. The eu gives better rhythm, and requires less strength whereas for +3T you have to get faster rotation and muscle the height and rotation more than for a +eu+3S. Generally speaking this was true for all training mates, and we all landed +eu+3S before +3T combinations. It's also easier to maintain speed which helps with jump takeoff.
In fact I'd go as far to say some people found +eu+3S easier than solo 3S due to the jump entrance rhythm.

It reminds me the old discussion over amphibia tanks. What is better - the bad amphimia tank with a weak gun or no tanks at all?

Tuktamisheva yet to land a single 4x in competition before going to beat Trusova in terms of 4T quality.
 

kolyadafan2002

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It reminds me the old discussion over amphibia tanks. What is better - the bad amphimia tank with a weak gun or no tanks at all?

Tuktamisheva yet to land a single 4x in competition before going to beat Trusova in terms of 4T quality.

I'll rephrase myself:
I think Tuktamisheva has best technique on 4T when she lands it.

It's like Mikhail Kolyada. He has the best 4Lz when he does it, but Nathan Chen does it with excellent consistency.
 

Arbitrary

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I'll rephrase myself:
I think Tuktamisheva has best technique on 4T when she lands it.

It's like Mikhail Kolyada. He has the best 4Lz when he does it, but Nathan Chen does it with excellent consistency.

And... when exactly she "lands" it?

(No insult to Tuktamisheva here)
 

Skatesocs

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Oh thanks! I really like that opening pose, how she manages to create such an internal control while sitting. Her small scale gesturing isn't bad at all, it's the larger scale things she needs to drill to gain more control and certainly more volume of movement. Hopefully, Plushy coaches her so we have something great on our hands.
 
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