Which layout does Trusova need to win?

kolyadafan2002

Fan of Kolyada
Final Flight
Joined
Jun 6, 2019
Also I wonder how Rozanov will be as a choreographer? I feel Danny G programs didnt work well for trusova, and maybe with hot sergei there is a chance her PCS could pick up a bit.
 

Arbitrary

Medalist
Joined
Sep 5, 2018
Also I wonder how Rozanov will be as a choreographer? I feel Danny G programs didnt work well for trusova, and maybe with hot sergei there is a chance her PCS could pick up a bit.

Raisng Trusova's PCS is not a matter of her choreo or execution or cleaness. It's a pure matter of the Board's good will...
 

Skatesocs

Final Flight
Joined
May 16, 2020
Raisng Trusova's PCS is not a matter of her choreo or execution or cleaness. It's a pure matter of the Board's good will...

OK I simply have to ask now. What do you mean by "the Board"? Goldenskate? Why does it matter if we think she's good or not? We can only discuss things, but she is also ruining her program quality AND she's not getting great PCS.
 

kolyadafan2002

Fan of Kolyada
Final Flight
Joined
Jun 6, 2019
Raisng Trusova's PCS is not a matter of her choreo or execution or cleaness. It's a pure matter of the Board's good will...

Better choreo = better PCS.
I sometimes think trusova is a little low balled in PCS, but Kostornias skating is on another level (and rightly gets marked accordingly).

Trusova and danny g didnt mix. Trusova cares alot about quads, and danny g cares about TPS (transitions per second). This led to trusova having a load of transitions which were executed to a low standard as she had to sacrifice the quality for the quads. If she had less transitions , she would be able to execute each TR to a higher quality and thus boost PCS- as inevitably the more difficult the jumps, the harder the TR.

I have no clue how Sergei R choreography, but if he does with a style similar to Jeffery Buttle (or like) then I feel like this may impact on the overall performance AND the SS.
 

Fried

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 14, 2020
I have no clue how Sergei R choreography, but if he does with a style similar to Jeffery Buttle (or like) then I feel like this may impact on the overall performance AND the SS.
The question is whether he has his OWN style at all. You have to develop a style and that works through experience. How much experience does Hot Sergey have as a choreographer? And above all: from whom did he learn skills and working methods in this regard? For an outsider, it gives the impression that Daniil G. was his "teacher". So I have to ask myself, where great new impulses should come from here.
 

kolyadafan2002

Fan of Kolyada
Final Flight
Joined
Jun 6, 2019
The question is whether he has his OWN style at all. You have to develop a style and that works through experience. How much experience does Hot Sergey have as a choreographer? And above all: from whom did he learn skills and working methods in this regard? For an outsider, it gives the impression that Daniil G. was his "teacher". So I have to ask myself, where great new impulses should come from here.

Do you know what he was like as a skater?
I'm wondering if he was good with his personal performance, as whilst it isnt always the case people who perform better when they are skaters tend to be able to choreograph better programs (again exceptions on both ends)
 

Fried

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 14, 2020
I don't know anything about him. That's why I don't really know what to think about this arrangement. Everything is possible. I try to see it positively, after all it builds up a huge excitement.
 

Jontor

Medalist
Joined
Jan 18, 2018
Country
Sweden
This reminds me of the beginning of last season with people repeatedly insisting and claiming to do the math multiple times to prove that 3As won’t have much of a mathematical advantage against quads. The math was incorrectly done multiple times.

A fall on a rotated quad is half the value of that quad, not zero. Getting +3 GOES across the board is also not equal to 3 points.

Yub Lub’s Tutorial on Calculating GOE

1. There are nine judges at major international competitions.
2. Nine judges gave the following for a hypothetical 4S (0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2)
3. The highest and lowest numbers are dropped. (1 2 3 4 0 1 2)
4. The numbers are added together. (1+2+3+4+0+1+2=13)
5. The total is divided by 7 - the number of judges. (13/7=1.86)
6. The total is then multiplied by 10% of the value of the 4S. (1.86 x 0.97)= 1.80
7. The GOES is 1.80. This skater scored 11.5 for the 4S. 12.47 if 4S was in the second half.

Note: For combinations, the GOE multiplier is based on the jump with the highest BV, not the first jump in the combination. It just so happens that the first jump is usually the most valuable, but that’s not always the case. Example: Medvedeva’s 3S+3Lo. In this case, the GOE multiplier is based on the 3Lo, not the 3S.

This concludes Yub Lub’s tutorial on calculating GOE.

Great tutorial!

Just to be clear, a lot of people seem to think that you get GOE points for the 10% bonus when you backload. That is not the case.

For example:
Trusova's 4T+1Eu+3S in the second half only gets GOE on the 4T before the bonus is added.
So - she did this combination the best at GPF where she got 18.44
4T BV = 9.50
GOE 2,857 on 4T = 2.71
1EU+3S BV = 4.80 (no GOE)
+10% on total BV = 1.43 (no GOE)
Total score 18.44

This backloaded combination will never beat Shcherbakova's 4Lz+3T though - Anna's best result for this combo was at Europeans when she scored 19.31.
So I am more in favor for Trusova having her quad combo in the beginning of the program. She can backload a 4T, but it is not really worth it to backload this 4T+1Eu+3S combo. It's way too risky for a very few extra points.
 

Jontor

Medalist
Joined
Jan 18, 2018
Country
Sweden
Kostornaia's advantage over Trusova last season was not only PCS, a lot of it was GOEs.

This is what they got in average last season:
Kostornaia GOE 27.10 points per competition
Shcherbakova GOE 18.0 points
Trusova GOE 18.60 points.

That is a HUGE advantage for Kostornaia. So even though Anna and Sasha have much higher BVs and more potential for big GOEs, Alyona beats them with her quality.

So, the big game changer for Trusova would be (imo) to focus more on quality rather than quantity. Almost 10 points behind Kostornaia in GOE points suggests that there is a lot of room for improvement here.
 

Arbitrary

Medalist
Joined
Sep 5, 2018
Kostornaia's advantage over Trusova last season was not only PCS, a lot of it was GOEs.

This is what they got in average last season:
Kostornaia GOE 27.10 points per competition
Shcherbakova GOE 18.0 points
Trusova GOE 18.60 points.

That is a HUGE advantage for Kostornaia. So even though Anna and Sasha have much higher BVs and more potential for big GOEs, Alyona beats them with her quality.

So, the big game changer for Trusova would be (imo) to focus more on quality rather than quantity. Almost 10 points behind Kostornaia in GOE points suggests that there is a lot of room for improvement here.

I'd like to see extrapolated GOE for Trusova with her full FP arsenal. Two or three crashes ruin everything, GOE included.

Regarding 4-1-3 backlogged. I'm sure Trusova will attempt to backlog a heavier combo. Maybe 4up-1-3F with an upper quad and better triple.
 

lzxnl

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
I'd like to see extrapolated GOE for Trusova with her full FP arsenal. Two or three crashes ruin everything, GOE included.

Regarding 4-1-3 backlogged. I'm sure Trusova will attempt to backlog a heavier combo. Maybe 4up-1-3F with an upper quad and better triple.

There's not much point doing a 4-1-3F combination, tbh.

Honestly, another way Trusova could max out her base value is to do a 3-4T. This opens the door for such a degenerate layout: (pure theorycrafting, I know it's unrealistic)

4Lz
4F
3S-4T
3A
4T-3T-3Lo
3Lz-3T/3Lo
3F

Four quads, but no Euler, which is a waste of a jump tbh. For an even more ridiculous layout:

4Lz
4F
4S
3Lz-4T
3A
4T-3T-3Lo
3F-3T/3Lo

I don't think Nathan Chen could do that either.
 

cohen-esque

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 27, 2014
I'd like to see extrapolated GOE for Trusova with her full FP arsenal. Two or three crashes ruin everything, GOE included.

Regarding 4-1-3 backlogged. I'm sure Trusova will attempt to backlog a heavier combo. Maybe 4up-1-3F with an upper quad and better triple.

Her most ambitious layouts this season were at the GPF. If we take her best PCS scores, and her average GOE for clean elements under the current GOE system, then she could get to at least around 80 in the SP and 180 in the FS, ~260 overall.

Short Program
3A 8.00 0.00 8.00
3F 5.30 1.82 7.12
CCoSp4 3.50 0.95 4.45
3Lz+3T 10.45 1.63 12.08
FCSp4 3.20 0.91 4.11
StSq4 3.90 1.16 5.06
LSp4 2.70 0.91 3.61

TES: 45.09 PCS: 34.42 TSS: 79.51

Getting +GOE for the 3A would boost her over 80. If we only give her a 2A, then she's down closer to her existing PB at ~76 points.

Free Skate:
4F 11.00 +3.30 14.30
4S 9.70 +1.76 11.46
4Lz 11.50 + 2.78 14.28
2A+3T 7.50 + 1.12 8.62
CCoSp4 3.50 +0.95 4.45
ChSq1 3.00 +1.50 4.50
4T+1Eu+3S 15.73x +2.61 18.34
4T 10.45x +2.21 12.66
3Lz+3T 11.11x +1.63 12.74
FCSp4 3.20 +0.91 4.11
StSq4 3.90 + 1.16 5.06
FCCoSp4 3.50 +0.99 4.49

TES: 115.01 PCS: 67.42 TSS: 182.43

SP: 79.51 FS: 182.43 TSS: 261.94

If she skated cleanly with her full content I assume she'd get a noticeable PCS bump, so she can probably get to 265+, and 270+ with the 3A in both programs.
 

Skatesocs

Final Flight
Joined
May 16, 2020
I would like to see:

4Lutz
4Toe+3Toe
3Axel
4Toe
3Lutz+3Loop
3Lutz+half loop+3Sal
3Flip

She should probably just ignore the 4Sal forever, it's too swingy for her and the 3Axel is worth more between SP + LP. 4Flip is maybe worthwhile, but again the 3Axel should be given more importance than it, and this content is plenty. She should go for consistency.
Plushy said
 

Arbitrary

Medalist
Joined
Sep 5, 2018
Even today's far from the best she did enough to win against not the lowest pack of competitors.
Given the awful ice conditions in Kazan Sasha did almost good and good enough to win...

4S, 4Lz, 4T-3T, 4T(crash), 2A, 3-3/3-3 combos (one crashed) is OK for today.
Polish the skating skills and gain some power bank inside. Add 3Ax instead of 2Ax whenever possible and this layout is enough for a couple of years. Even for joint male/female competitions.
 

Arbitrary

Medalist
Joined
Sep 5, 2018
Today's layout as a foundation, and when the first three 4's are landed, throwing in the 3A for 2A when the momentum and adrenaline align. I can see the 4L as a standing in for troublesome 3Lz-3L. With room to spare in TES, I expect she prefers a ratified 4L for the record books. Rostelecom?

I don't know if a skater (even Trusova) may skate with two combos only. Isn't it a mandatory requirement for having three combos?

BYW she received TES = 102.89 today. With all the losses and misfortune and bad ice...
 

macy

you should see her in a crown
Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2011
i'm curious to know if Sasha would have won today if Aliona had done her usual 3 3As. would anyone be kind enough to do the math please? maybe using average GOE on them from last season?
 

dancelion21

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 14, 2019
Aliona probably would have won. If she had her 3A in the short program, she probably would've scored close to 90, which is what she got at Russian Nationals last year, so that would've been at least a ten point buffer between her and Sasha since Sasha didn't land her 3A cleanly. During the FP at 2020 Russian Nationals, Aliona scored 170 with a minor bobble. If she went totally clean, she would've probably scored a few points more. Sasha scored a 171 today, so it wouldn't have been able to make up the difference.
 

anonymoose_au

Making sequined tie and vest combos cool
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 22, 2014
Country
Australia
This thread is interesting in light of the Nationals.

Basically...Sasha would have to do a program twice as difficult as anybody else (4 quads vs 2) to barely eke out a win.

And people still wonder why she focuses on quads? Why indeed. 😒
 

TripleAxelQueens3

sasha trusova is superior
Final Flight
Joined
Apr 17, 2018
I think we're putting Sasha's PCS a little too behind here. It won't be like Kostornaia, Kihira, Shcherbakova are getting 10s in every category and she's getting 5s (and it shouldn't be that way either, Alyona and Rika should get high 9s for SS, but Anya should honestly be behind Sasha for that category. And in the SP at least, her TR score should be similar to everyone else's. For PE and IN, well, if she gets a program as suited for her as Big Spender or Unstoppable than I'd have no argument with her being high 8s, CO depends on choreography). I honestly think we're not really taking into account how PCS are scored. Yes, Alyona and Rika should be getting the highest scores, but like take Alyona's FS this season for example - still really high SS score, but it warrants a noticeably less TR and CO score. It really depends on the programs too.

If she does 4 good quads, even if her competitors are clean, I think she'll manage the win (unless we get Kihira with 3 3As and 1 quad across two programs). We know that PCS honestly rises with consistency + tech content (oddly enough). My preferred layout would be:
1. 4S or 4F (considering she lips now, probably 4S, but 4F has higher BV so once they get that edge issue out of the way, and she stabilizes this quad, she should do 4F)
2. 4Lz+3T (hers at RusNats practices were some of the most gorgeous and effortless quad combos I've seen)
3. 4T or 4Lz (whichever one is more consistent)
4. 3A (or 2A)
------
5. 4T+1Eu+3S (gorgeous combo)
6. 3Lz+3Lo
7. 3Lz

If Sasha really stabilizes her quads I would love to see a 5 quad FS + 3A but not at the cost of her getting injured or not going clean. But like, can you image her skating with 4Lo, 4F, 4S, 4Lz, 4T and 3A?? Like that would be absolutely amazing!
 

happycamper2554

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 15, 2018
I think she needs 4 quads but only two types. She needs to really stabilize the two she can do best

4lz3t
4Lz
4t
2a

4teu3sx
3l3lox
3fx

The question is can she get it done. If she can't do 3l3lo consistently after 4 quads. Then the 4lz3t becomes 4lz2t and 3lz3lo becomes 3lz3t
 
Top