I do believe both Kolyada and Tuktamisheva land pretty clean isolated 4Lz or 4T jump in practice. Kolyada even managed to land some in competitions.
Trusova too may land four may be five perfect different quads in practice. So?
Yes, maths is clear.
If she landed the 4S clean she would NOT regain +9.7, as she already got that BV for quad. She would have got +4.85+ 1. Also that's not how GOE works, shed get less than a point for +1. I'll use your maths anyway and subtract 4.85 from it, and shed be under Alena...
What about a three quad layout, but all quads are different?
3Lz-eu-3F x (she hasn't done this combo, but I don't think there will be a problem to learn)
Value: 70.08 just for jumps, 87.18 for all
elements with level 4
She did something with similar bv here: http://rinkresults.com/judges-scores?competition_id=2463&race_id=7
That would be alright if Kostornia and sherbakova made mistakes, but a clean kostornia could beat this with 3A advantage in SP.
And if kostornia gets a clean 4S, this layout could almost never beat her unless she makes serious mistakes.
Trusova needs the SP 3A, or 4 quad clean to confidently say she will be in the running. I see why Plushenko and her want 5 quad LP.
Her choreography and performance and quality with those overly quadded programs suffered.
LOL at saying that a 3 Quad and Triple Axel program is "for losers". It's still a harder jump layout than any other woman in the world has ever attempted. .
Shcherbackova looks like a puberty victim waiting to happen to me. Trusova's body type seems like it should stay more stable.
Also curious, what about Shcherbackova? I don't know if I think she could do a 3A actually...
It is where coaching comes into play...Nobody is considering that Trusova does not want to do 3 quads.
It is where coaching comes into play...
Valieva is also never going to get a 3A IMO, but at least in her case it looks better than Shcherbackova's. Maybe it will somehow happen, even I was surprised with Trusova's 3A, I thought she didn't have it in her either.
Nobody is considering that Trusova does not want to do 3 quads.
She seems to rather do more and risk not winning, then do less and only just win.
3 quads is not enough for trusova if Kihira / Kostornia get a quad, and let's remember that they may try push Kamila (if old enough?) For 2022 Olympics - and if she gets a 3A then she will become a front contender.
In the GP series I'd say that she starts off with a lower layout such as 3 quad, then next program does 4 quad, and then she can decide what to do in the GPF showdown based on how things go.
Trusova needs 7 quads and 2 trixels. All with max possible positive GOE. On condition that everyone of her competitors land not a single jump.
Her PCS will be negative...