Which layout does Trusova need to win?

Arbitrary

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kzYekdFTHc
so far in practice only. When she lands it it's better than any other 4T in the ladies field technique wise.

It's like saying "when does Kolyada land 4Lz" when he landed only couple times.

I do believe both Kolyada and Tuktamisheva land pretty clean isolated 4Lz or 4T jump in practice. Kolyada even managed to land some in competitions.
Trusova too may land four may be five perfect different quads in practice. So?
 

TeamGubanova

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I think Trusova needs to do

SP:

3A
3F
BONUS
3Lz + 3T

FS:

4Lz
4T + 3T
4T
2A
BONUS
3Lz + Eu + 3S
2A + 3T
3Lz
 

Spirals for Miles

Anna Shcherbakova is my World Champion
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With the repetition of 4T, 3T, and 3Lz, this isn't a valid free skate layout, unfortunately.

I think I'd like to see her perform a layout that looks something like this:

4Lz
4T-3T
3F
2A
--------
4T-Eu-3S
3Lz-3Lo
3Lz

I really liked her backloaded quad, and thought that the 4T-Eu-3S seemed to improve as she performed it :)
 

YuBluByMe

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Yes, maths is clear.
If she landed the 4S clean she would NOT regain +9.7, as she already got that BV for quad. She would have got +4.85+ 1. Also that's not how GOE works, shed get less than a point for +1. I'll use your maths anyway and subtract 4.85 from it, and shed be under Alena...

This reminds me of the beginning of last season with people repeatedly insisting and claiming to do the math multiple times to prove that 3As won’t have much of a mathematical advantage against quads. The math was incorrectly done multiple times.

A fall on a rotated quad is half the value of that quad, not zero. Getting +3 GOES across the board is also not equal to 3 points.

Yub Lub’s Tutorial on Calculating GOE

1. There are nine judges at major international competitions.
2. Nine judges gave the following for a hypothetical 4S (0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2)
3. The highest and lowest numbers are dropped. (1 2 3 4 0 1 2)
4. The numbers are added together. (1+2+3+4+0+1+2=13)
5. The total is divided by 7 - the number of judges. (13/7=1.86)
6. The total is then multiplied by 10% of the value of the 4S. (1.86 x 0.97)= 1.80
7. The GOES is 1.80. This skater scored 11.5 for the 4S. 12.47 if 4S was in the second half.

Note: For combinations, the GOE multiplier is based on the jump with the highest BV, not the first jump in the combination. It just so happens that the first jump is usually the most valuable, but that’s not always the case. Example: Medvedeva’s 3S+3Lo. In this case, the GOE multiplier is based on the 3Lo, not the 3S.

This concludes Yub Lub’s tutorial on calculating GOE.
 

ruga

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What about a three quad layout, but all quads are different?

4Lz
4F
4T-3T
2A
3Lz-3Lo x
3Lz-eu-3F x (she hasn't done this combo, but I don't think there will be a problem to learn)
3F x

Value: 70.08 just for jumps, 87.18 for all
elements with level 4
 

kolyadafan2002

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What about a three quad layout, but all quads are different?

4Lz
4F
4T-3T
2A
3Lz-3Lo x
3Lz-eu-3F x (she hasn't done this combo, but I don't think there will be a problem to learn)
3F x

Value: 70.08 just for jumps, 87.18 for all
elements with level 4

She did something with similar bv here: http://rinkresults.com/judges-scores?competition_id=2463&race_id=7

That would be alright if Kostornia and sherbakova made mistakes, but a clean kostornia could beat this with 3A advantage in SP.
And if kostornia gets a clean 4S, this layout could almost never beat her unless she makes serious mistakes.

Trusova needs the SP 3A, or 4 quad clean to confidently say she will be in the running. I see why Plushenko and her want 5 quad LP.
 

ruga

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She did something with similar bv here: http://rinkresults.com/judges-scores?competition_id=2463&race_id=7

That would be alright if Kostornia and sherbakova made mistakes, but a clean kostornia could beat this with 3A advantage in SP.
And if kostornia gets a clean 4S, this layout could almost never beat her unless she makes serious mistakes.

Trusova needs the SP 3A, or 4 quad clean to confidently say she will be in the running. I see why Plushenko and her want 5 quad LP.

Japan Open gave her very low PCS. For a clean skate they could be 4 points or so higher. Also, the GOEs were pretty low. If she gets at least +2 on every element in my layout, the TES will be 101.48. Add 66 for PCS and we get a nice score. But obviously, Sasha needs a 3A, another quad or both to get a comfortable lead. The most important thing is stability though. Three to four to five to four to three quads again and other tweaks in the layout this season didn't really help her.
 

colormyworld240

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This depends on if Sasha improves her PCS, if Anna/Alena improves their PCS, and what layouts they do. And of course if any other high TES/PCS skater adds some quads or 3As to their arsenal. Impossible to tell until at least the first set of competitions to see where they're all at relative to each other.
 

Amei

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Her choreography and performance and quality with those overly quadded programs suffered.

LOL at saying that a 3 Quad and Triple Axel program is "for losers". It's still a harder jump layout than any other woman in the world has ever attempted. :laugh:.

I don't get why everyone is pulling out these 3 quad programs for Trusova, based on what's been said that was 1 of the issues between her and her former coach, they were trying to get her to go clean vs. doing too many quads.



Shcherbackova looks like a puberty victim waiting to happen to me. Trusova's body type seems like it should stay more stable.

Shcherbakova looks a lot like Medvedeva in terms of body type, naturally a thin person - my concern is how long will her body be able to stand the heavy-torque that she does to get up into her quads (it doesn't seem that harsh on her triples).

Also curious, what about Shcherbackova? I don't know if I think she could do a 3A actually...

Shcherbakova has said that getting a triple axel is her priority now; I went into the ladies and the triple axel thread in an interview in December of last year about Zagitova they showed the rink and Shcherbakova was practicing a triple axel without a rod to assist her
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
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Yes, Trusova is too good for double jumps, never again shall she do one.

Her 3Axel attempt at the GPF really did surprise me. It was much bigger than any other axel I'd ever seen her do and the rotation wasn't bad (that was an undeserved < call). She should make a serious effort to master the jump, it doesn't seem too far away for her, and will give her such a big advantage, not just technically but also as a way to make her presentation more powerful.
 

Seren

Wakabond Forever
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More than any layout she needs to skate clean and improve her components. The judges gave her a pretty clear message last year when she competed against her former training mates. I hope she finds her spark again- she seems like a lovely girl.
 

kolyadafan2002

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Nobody is considering that Trusova does not want to do 3 quads.
She seems to rather do more and risk not winning, then do less and only just win.
3 quads is not enough for trusova if Kihira / Kostornia get a quad, and let's remember that they may try push Kamila (if old enough?) For 2022 Olympics - and if she gets a 3A then she will become a front contender.
In the GP series I'd say that she starts off with a lower layout such as 3 quad, then next program does 4 quad, and then she can decide what to do in the GPF showdown based on how things go.
 

Skatesocs

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Nobody is considering that Trusova does not want to do 3 quads.
It is where coaching comes into play...

Valieva is also never going to get a 3A IMO, but at least in her case it looks better than Shcherbackova's. Maybe it will somehow happen, even I was surprised with Trusova's 3A, I thought she didn't have it in her either.
 

kolyadafan2002

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It is where coaching comes into play...

Valieva is also never going to get a 3A IMO, but at least in her case it looks better than Shcherbackova's. Maybe it will somehow happen, even I was surprised with Trusova's 3A, I thought she didn't have it in her either.

I think Kamila will get a 3A if she is determined enough. Of course, a 4S is more likely, but I wouldn't through a Veronika Zhilina style 3A. It will never be kostornia or Kihira strength, but there is a chance from the technique.
 

Arbitrary

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Nobody is considering that Trusova does not want to do 3 quads.
She seems to rather do more and risk not winning, then do less and only just win.
3 quads is not enough for trusova if Kihira / Kostornia get a quad, and let's remember that they may try push Kamila (if old enough?) For 2022 Olympics - and if she gets a 3A then she will become a front contender.
In the GP series I'd say that she starts off with a lower layout such as 3 quad, then next program does 4 quad, and then she can decide what to do in the GPF showdown based on how things go.

I do. I think she wants to do 5 quads, may be 6...
 

lariko

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Trusova needs 7 quads and 2 trixels. All with max possible positive GOE. On condition that everyone of her competitors land not a single jump.
Her PCS will be negative...

This is so spot on.

And, yet, Trusova is incredibly watchable live. It is simply indescribable how she throws into that jump and flies off the ice. The amount of energy she delivers in everything else. The projection of personality... Ah, well.

I think the important thing is that she is memorable and alas for 3A not being there for her.
 
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