Who will make it to the JGP final?

[Chemistry66]

Seems like in pairs we will see the same situation like in 2013 JGPF. There was 5 russian pairs and a chinese pair (which won btw). In Germany will be only three strong team: M/M, D/B, Oganesyan/Bardei. For Ustimkina/Volodin and Boikova/Kozlovsky will be enough take 4-5 places which guarantees them tickets to the final.

What about girls: if Stasya take first place and Nastya take second - they are both will go the final. But I suppose Gubanova will take first place. And Stasya with second place cant make it to the final because her scores at Cup of Mordovia was low and she will lose to Honda by scores anyway.

Konstantinova needs 187.67 points if she's second. Not incredibly likely but not impossible.

 

[sneakers]

Its almost certain taht 6 spots will go to

Tsurskaya
Kihira
Gubanova
Zagitova
Sakomoto
Honda

the only way those will change if Konstantinova wins next week and Gubanova drops to 2nd or 3rd - then Honda will be out !
btw, though unlikely but it can still happen, Gubanova can be inconsistent...

 

[The Finn]

Konstantinova needs 187.67 points if she's second. Not incredibly likely but not impossible.

She is fully capable to score that high but she has been rather inconsistent in the past.

 

[sneakers]

She is fully capable to score that high but she has been rather inconsistent in the past.

not very realistic, I think 183-185 will be her max range by international junior standards and she'll need Gubanova to make mistakes for her to win gold thus will knock Honda out of the JGPF.

 

[The Finn]

Seems like in pairs we will see the same situation like in 2013 JGPF. There was 5 russian pairs and a chinese pair (which won btw). In Germany will be only three strong team: M/M, D/B, Oganesyan/Bardei. For Ustimkina/Volodin and Boikova/Kozlovsky will be enough take 4-5 places which guarantees them tickets to the final.

Ustimkina/Volodin are one of the strong teams since they can score above 160 points and they are consistent. Oganesian/Bardei can score pretty high but they are really inconsistent. Boikova/Kozlovskii too seems rather inconsistent but that is understandable since they haven't skated much together.

 

[The Finn]

not very realistic

She is fully capable to score about 190 points but the problem is that she hasn't been consistent in the past.

 

[The Finn]

Originally had Poluianova/Selkin listed but apparently Russia did have the sense to give silver-winning Boikova/Kozlovski another spot!

This move was made very soon after JGP Russia, nearly 2 weeks ago.

 

[sneakers]

She is fully capable to score about 190 points but the problem is that she hasn't been consistent in the past.

how can she score 190 when even Zagitova with her backloaded jumps got only 194 ?

 

[The Finn]

how can she score 190 when even Zagitova with her backloaded jumps got only 194 ?

So what, that is not the limit for Alina. Liza just scored 188.5 or something without clean SP. And we have seen Sakamoto scoring nearly 188 points.

 

[sneakers]

So what, that is not the limit for Alina. Liza just scored 188.5 or something without clean SP. And we have seen Sakamoto scoring nearly 188 points.

Sakamoto got inflated score as she was skating on home advantage. Konstantinova wont skate in Russia, so unlikely she will get 190.

 

[The Finn]

so unlikely she will get 190.

That may be but the reason for this is not that she can't score that high but the fact that she has been rather inconsistent in the past.

 

[Chemistry66]

This move was made very soon after JGP Russia, nearly 2 weeks ago.

Yes, but at the time I was making the list yesterday, the change was not yet reflected in the Standings page and I was mainly using that to make my lists. The Standings page now matches the Entries list.

 

[Chemistry66]

Ice Dance is finished in Estonia (well, it finished while I was sleeping! Whoops!)

Definitely In

Loboda/Drozd, RUS - 30 (15+15, 1st/1st, 318.88)
McNamara/Carpenter, USA - 30 (15+15, 1st/1st, 307.92)
Abachkina/Thauron, FRA - 26 (15+11, 1st/3rd, 300.93)

Essentially In (very low chance to NOT qualify)

Carreira/Ponomarenko, USA - 26 (13+13, 2nd/2nd, 305.57)

Technically, C/P could be out in a perfect storm of events. But it would require Ushakova/Nekrasov winning with a total score almost 20 points above their PB (beating C/P on placement tiebreak), Shpilevaya/Smirnov to be 2nd with at least a 154.08, and Parsons/Parsons to be 3rd (also beating C/P on placement tiebreak).

On The Bubble

Skoptcova/Aleshin, RUS - 24 (11+13, 3rd/2nd, 292.23)
Polishchuk/Vakhnov, RUS - 24 (11+13, 3rd/2nd, 282.53)

Contenders In Germany

Parsons/Parsons, USA - 15 (1st, 160.42)
Shpilevaya/Smirnov, RUS - 13 (2nd, 151.50)
Ushakova/Nekrasov, RUS - 11 (3rd, 136.10)

Parsons/Parsons are in for sure if they medal. If 4th, they would require Shpilevaya/Smirnov to place no higher than 3rd and Ushakova/Nekrasov to place no higher than 2nd. If 5th, they are out.

Shpilevaya/Smirnov are in for sure with gold. If 2nd, they are in with a Parsons/Parsons 1st or the perfect storm mentioned above (U/N 1st, S/S 2nd with >154.08, P/P 3rd). If 3rd, it would likely come down to score tiebreakers with a heavy advantage to S/S.

Ushakova/Nekrasov are in for sure with gold. If 2nd, they are down to score tiebreakers and are at a significant disadvantage.

Likely Qualifiers:

Loboda/Drozd, RUS
McNamara/Carpenter, USA
Parsons/Parsons, USA
Abachkina/Thauron, FRA
Shpilevaya/Smirnov, RUS
Carreira/Ponomarenko, USA

 

[cheerknithanson]

With Alexander Samarin winning, he's definitely going to the JGPF.

 

[JuliaHols]

Zhou is almost definitely out

 

[Chemistry66]

Men's competition is finished in Estonia.

Definitely In

Alexander Samarin, RUS - 28 (15+15, 1st/1st, 462.62)
Alexei Krasnozhon, USA - 28 (13+15, 2nd/1st, 434.78)
Roman Savosin, RUS - 26 (15+11, 1st/3rd, 405.92)

Essentially In (very low chance to NOT qualify)

Ilia Skirda, RUS - 26 (13+13, 2nd/2nd, 398.82)

Skirda is only out on a perfect storm of events. It requires: 1) Erokhov winning gold (beats Skirda on placement tiebreak), 2) Torgashev winning silver with at least 193.91, and 3) Cha winning bronze (also beating Skirda on a placement tiebreak). If even one of these things doesn't happen, Skirda is in.

On The Bubble

Dmitri Aliev, RUS - 24 (15+9, 1st/4th, 433.74)
Vincent Zhou, USA - 24 (13+11, 2nd/3rd, 440.31)

Aliev actually could make it. If Cha wins gold, and Erokhov beats Torgashev (which is possible given PB scores) Aliev has the tiebreak.

Zhou is all but mathematically out.

Contenders In Germany

Jun Hwan Cha, KOR - 15 (1st, 239.47)
Andrew Torgashev, USA - 13 (2nd, 204.91)
Alexey Erokhov, RUS - 11 (3rd, 216.91)

Cha is in with a medal of any color. If 4th, he needs a score of >194.27 to overtake Aliev on tiebreakers and either Torgashev to place no higher than 3rd OR Erokhov to place no higher than 2nd. If 5th, he's out.

Torgashev is in for sure with a gold. If 2nd, he's in with a Cha gold or the perfect storm mentioned above. If 3rd, he is most likely out since Aliev has the placement tiebreaker.

Erokhov is in for sure with gold. If 2nd, he is most likely out since Aliev has the placement tiebreaker.

Possible Spoilers

Artem Kovalev, RUS - 5 (6th, 209.01)

Kovalev won't qualify, but his score shows capability to do well enough to maybe affect others' qualifications.

Likely Qualifiers

Alexander Samarin, RUS
Alexei Krasnozhon, USA
Roman Savosin, RUS
Ilia Skirda, RUS
Jun Hwan Cha, KOR

The last spot would be between Aliev, Torgashev, and Erokhov.

 

[The Finn]

Ice Dance is finished in Estonia (well, it finished while I was sleeping! Whoops!)

On The Bubble

Poluianova/Vakhnov, RUS - 24 (11+13, 3rd/2nd, 282.53)

Something here doesn't sound right.

 

[The Finn]

Aliev actually could make it. If Cha wins gold, and Erokhov beats Torgashev (which is possible given PB scores) Aliev has the tiebreak.

Yep, Erokhov has a lot of potential and he seems pretty consistent. I would be surprised if he doesn't beat Torgashev.

 

[Chemistry66]

Something here doesn't sound right.

I'll fix it when I get back on my laptop.

 

[Mrs. P]

Yep, Erokhov has a lot of potential and he seems pretty consistent. I would be surprised if he doesn't beat Torgashev.

It's going to be an exciting competition next week!!