Who will make it to the JGP final?

[kalee]

Sakamoto got inflated score as she was skating on home advantage. Konstantinova wont skate in Russia, so unlikely she will get 190.

IIRC, she got 191 at Tallinn Trophy (not the JGP, but a 2nd tier ISU competition) last year.
Russia has no incentive to inflate her scores vs. others as they have a surfeit of qualified skaters.
Btw, saw in another thread that Vivian Le scored 39 in the SP at a recent domestic competition -- bummer, was hoping she would be back to full form which would make the Dresden JGP more exciting. If she is still not ready, then less likely for her to be a spoiler.

 

[Chemistry66]

Btw, saw in another thread that Vivian Le scored 39 in the SP at a recent domestic competition -- bummer, was hoping she would be back to full form which would make the Dresden JGP more exciting. If she is still not ready, then less likely for her to be a spoiler.

Yeah, Vivian isn't doing so well at Regionals (which is the first step in the US Nationals qualifying season). Wonder if there's already a last minute substitute in the works for Germany since it's not like USFS wasn't aware of her injury issues/recovery difficulties. Might be better for her to take the time to recover rather than deal with travel and a competiton when she's not up to it.

 

[Mrs. P]

Yeah, Vivian isn't doing so well at Regionals (which is the first step in the US Nationals qualifying season). Wonder if there's already a last minute substitute in the works for Germany since it's not like USFS wasn't aware of her injury issues/recovery difficulties. Might be better for her to take the time to recover rather than deal with travel and a competiton when she's not up to it.

I noticed they haven't announced the JGP Germany team yet or put anyone down for the International Assignments page...so we shall see.

 

[sneakers]

Mens:

1 Samarin
2 Savosin
3 Krasnozhon
4 Skirda ?
5 Jun Hwan just needs another medal

last spot will be between Erokhov, Torgashev or Aliev
Torgashev needs to get silver to qualify, Erokhov needs to win gold or else both will lose out to Aliev in tie breaker

 

[Chemistry66]

Mens:

1 Samarin
2 Savosin
3 Krasnozhon
4 Skirda ?
5 Jun Hwan just needs another medal

last spot will be between Erokhov, Torgashev or Aliev
Torgashev needs to get silver to qualify, Erokhov needs to win gold or else both will lose out to Aliev in tie breaker

Yup, that agrees with my analysis (see page 8 if you want). And Skirda is pretty much in. Only Erokhov gold + Torgashev silver with at least 193.91 + Cha bronze would keep him out. ALL of those three things must happen for Skirda to be out.

 

[puremagic]

Yup, that agrees with my analysis (see page 8 if you want). And Skirda is pretty much in. Only Erokhov gold + Torgashev silver with at least 193.91 + Cha bronze would keep him out. ALL of those three things must happen for Skirda to be out.

Someone on this forum said that RusFed will replace Skirda on Aliev. It will be absolutely unfair but it make sense.

 

[Mrs. P]

Someone on this forum said that RusFed will replace Skirda on Aliev. It will be absolutely unfair but it make sense.

How? The only way you withdraw someone from JGPF is if the athlete has an illness or injury.

 

[puremagic]

How? The only way you withdraw someone from JGPF is if the athlete has an illness or injury.

Oh, I didn't know about that. Then I'm calm.

 

[hanca]

How? The only way you withdraw someone from JGPF is if the athlete has an illness or injury.

They could order Skirda to be 'unwell', if they were certain that the replacement is Aliev. The question is whether Skirda and his coach would make a fuss or whether they would stay quiet. It is not a good idea to make your skating federation angry, considering that they are the one allocating the assignments and your career depends on it.

 

[Hailey Shin]

They could order Skirda to be 'unwell', if they were certain that the replacement is Aliev. The question is whether Skirda and his coach would make a fuss or whether they would stay quiet. It is not a good idea to make your skating federation angry, considering that they are the one allocating the assignments and your career depends on it.

Woow Is this happens real? Is it possible? If skaters face on those kinds of pressure by their federation, they should consider to change the nations they represent..

 

[hanca]

Woow Is this happens real? Is it possible? If skaters face on those kinds of pressure by their federation, they should consider to change the nations they represent..

To change country the skaters need their own federation to release them. And there is nothing that can make a federation to release a skater, so in theory the federation could hold on the skater for a very long time. In the past iliuschetchkina was held about 3-4 years by Russia before they released her, and Zahorski was held by France over three years. So the skaters can end up waiting in limbo forever.

 

[sneakers]

They could order Skirda to be 'unwell', if they were certain that the replacement is Aliev. The question is whether Skirda and his coach would make a fuss or whether they would stay quiet. It is not a good idea to make your skating federation angry, considering that they are the one allocating the assignments and your career depends on it.

that would be kind of ridiculuous and desperate for a junior event, lol
not to mention greedy, they already have 3 qualified with Savosin and Samarin

why would they make Skirda fake an injury just to give the spot to Aliev ? Aliev is inconsistent anyways, I'd bet more on Samarin getting a medal in JGPF.

 

[Hailey Shin]

To change country the skaters need their own federation to release them. And there is nothing that can make a federation to release a skater, so in theory the federation could hold on the skater for a very long time. In the past iliuschetchkina was held about 3-4 years by Russia before they released her, and Zahorski was held by France over three years. So the skaters can end up waiting in limbo forever.

:dumb:

 

[hanca]

that would be kind of ridiculuous and desperate for a junior event, lol
not to mention greedy, they already have 3 qualified with Savosin and Samarin

why would they make Skirda fake an injury just to give the spot to Aliev ? Aliev is inconsistent anyways, I'd bet more on Samarin getting a medal in JGPF.

I never said that they will do it. I just reacted on the poster that was saying that they can't do it. They can, all federations have a lot of power over their skaters. But that doesn't mean that they will. I don't think that's it is worth the bother for them. JGPF is far too small competition and in the long term not as important, so why intervene? At senior level it would be much more important for them.

 

[silverfoxes]

Someone on this forum said that RusFed will replace Skirda on Aliev. It will be absolutely unfair but it make sense.

No, it doesn't make sense. I'm a huge Dima fan and I would never want to see him (or anyone else) get a spot that way. I don't think we need a bunch of unfounded conspiracy theories for the JGP even before the last competition has taken place. Or afterwards, for that matter...but especially before. A lot can still happen.

 

[puremagic]

No, it doesn't make sense. I'm a huge Dima fan and I would never want to see him (or anyone else) get a spot that way. I don't think we need a bunch of unfounded conspiracy theories for the JGP even before the last competition has taken place. Or afterwards, for that matter...but especially before. A lot can still happen.

Agree. I don't want to upset you, but in this post (about I am talking) also was said that Dima liked this news. I mean he put "Like" when someone said about replacing (on VK I guess). And after this I started more dislike him. But I hope it's not true or he didn't mean it. Whatever.

 

[sneakers]

Agree. I don't want to upset you, but in this post (about I am talking) also was said that Dima liked this news. I mean he put "Like" when someone said about replacing (on VK I guess). And after this I started more dislike him. But I hope it's not true or he didn't mean it. Whatever.

Aliev putting like on the rumor post in vk ? well shame on him.
He was the favorite to win that event but couldnt handle teh pressure, Skirda earned his 2 silver medals fair and square.
I will object also faking an injury just to slot a more "potential" medalist he didn't earn.

its a junior event, not even the end of a career, jeebus !

 

[voolfee]

Agree. I don't want to upset you, but in this post (about I am talking) also was said that Dima liked this news. I mean he put "Like" when someone said about replacing (on VK I guess).

What are you talking about? Give a link to this, please.

 

[micnow]

If we consider a perfect storm of events, we also should consider (at least it is mathematically possible although < 1% likely) that if Gubanova should be dropped to 4th with a very very low score or 5th and Y. Shiraiwa or Lim (which were only given as possible spoilers) should win with a great score (I know very very unlikely but according to their potential not completely impossible) and Konstantinova not in 2nd, then it could bring Shiraiwa (more likely) or even Lim into the final with 24 points assumed Gubanova would loose the tie-break if 4th (very unlikely because she already scored 185 points) or down to 5th.
A very very unlikely (but not completely impossible) scenario for that could be:
1. Shiraiwa
2. Lim
3. Konstantinova
4. Gubanova (with desastrous low score) / Aoki
5. Gubanova (if Aoki 4th)

That would bring Shiraiwa to the final.
But I think nobody (including me) would believe in that

 

[Chemistry66]

If we consider a perfect storm of events, we also should consider (at least it is mathematically possible although < 1% likely) that if Gubanova should be dropped to 4th with a very very low score or 5th and Y. Shiraiwa or Lim (which were only given as possible spoilers) should win with a great score (I know very very unlikely but according to their potential not completely impossible) and Konstantinova not in 2nd, then it could bring Shiraiwa (more likely) or even Lim into the final with 24 points assumed Gubanova would loose the tie-break if 4th (very unlikely because she already scored 185 points) or down to 5th.
A very very unlikely (but not completely impossible) scenario for that could be:
1. Shiraiwa
2. Lim
3. Konstantinova
4. Gubanova (with desastrous low score) / Aoki
5. Gubanova (if Aoki 4th)

That would bring Shiraiwa to the final.
But I think nobody (including me) would believe in that

True. I sort of touched on that but didn't go into a ton of depth. You're right. Probably should've put more detail.