Who Will Throw the Cat Amongst the Pigeons?

[Lamente Ariane]

K/F are the only pair in "Group 2," which relates to their scores and completed competitions. I have seen it posted elsewhere that even if they were to be as low as 5th place at Nationals (not likely), they could still be sent to the Olympics. Maybe someone who keeps up with these things can confirm and reference that. Meagan Duhamel also said it, on her recent appearance on TSL.

But I agree with you that they're not as far ahead of the field as was assumed. They may not be a lock for gold. It will be an exciting contest ... or extremely nerve-wracking, depending on your point of view!

They'd definitely have to underperform pretty badly to be out of consideration! And I don't honestly think that's very likely, but it is a (small) possibility. Personally, I'm hoping Cain-Gribble/Leduc can grab the gold and secure their Olympic ticket, but out of all the fields at US Nationals I think it's fair to say Pairs is the closest to a wide open field.

 

[readernick]

There will definitely be some upsets. It's nationals. My feeling is that even if an upset happens in men's or dance USFS will probably still stick with the 3 highest scorers internationally. Ilia and Yaro are both very inconsistent. Green/ Parsons have the best material in the entire ice dance field this year imho. However, they also lack some technical and performance skills and they keep falling in competition. I think they will be ready for big events next year after a trip to 4CC.

Pairs and women's are more interesting because the US doesn't have a serious contender in either field. I wouldn't save anyone who has a serious meltdown. USFS might view things differently. Looking at competition results this season, I would think the women's event would be the one most likely to have some meltdowns. Karen has had some really bad competitions. Mariah has been more reliable than Karen but her 3-3 is still inconsistent. Lindsay could easy beat them both. The top pairs might make some mistakes but most pairs haven't had more than one or two bad programs all season. They've been pretty good and have actually got medals on the GP which the top women haven't. L/ M are very reliable but I wouldn't put them on the Olympic teams unless 2/3 top contenders has a terrible Nationals. Their scoring potential has more limits.

So, I think the singles' disciplines are most ripe for upsets but the top 3 men are so ahead of the rest in terms of international scores and reputation that I only see such an upset affecting the women's Olympic team or possibly pairs.

 

[labgoat]

Gracie E Gold. Pewter medal. Moonvine has spent the morning cleaning up partially digested bird pieces and is ready to be cheered up.

Are you the one who tossed the cat among the pigeons?

 

[karne]

I sure hope you're right. That could mean a trip to 4CC and possibly worlds if any of the Olympians decide to skip worlds this year.

AFAIK Gracie does not have the required minimums for either comp. That would indeed throw the cat amongst the pigeons in your scenario, because USFS would have to find somewhere to send her to gain those minimums posthaste—not easy to do when time is short and you are in the midst of a worldwide pandemic!

I'm still confused about minimum scores. Can Gracie earn them at Nationals. If she gets the pewter medal, shouldn't that qualify her for 4cc

No, the TES needs to be earned at an international competition. So domestic does not count. Similarly even if Ilia wins, he still needs the minimum TES for worlds

There is an event (Usually the Bavarian Open) that is the same weekend as 4CC that she could go to and get the minimum TES. But i don't think it is in time for the Olympics. However worlds she could qualify for.

If she does well I hope they do send her to something, even if to just try to get a season best... then again, not sure Bavarian counts for that.

Season best scores can only be earned at Challengers/Grand Prix/Championships.

Just to clarify this whole mess.

Gracie does not have the required minimums for 4CC (which are also the minimums for the Olympics). As delightful as it would be, there cannot be any wonderful fairytale.

The minimums can be earned at any international Senior B (or higher) event that meets the nationality requirements (a certain number of countries represented on the judging panel and entry list). It does not have to be a CS event or a GP.

However, it DOES have to be a minimum of 30 days before the draw of the event. So it is already too late. Gracie cannot be sent anywhere else because it already less than 30 days before the start of 4CC and the Olympics. She could be sent somewhere to get the Worlds minimums after Nationals, if there is an event available. But 4CC and the Olympics are both non-starters for her...as much as I would be crying absolute tears for joy for that fairytale storyline.

 

[Andrea82]

However, it DOES have to be a minimum of 30 days before the draw of the event. .

It is 21 days before the first day of the event (considering the first official practice as first day).
Anyway, certainly too late for 4CCs. Possibly also the competition scheduled in Italy for next week is too late for OG. I don't remember when the first official practices in Beijing are.

 

[mrrice]

It is 21 days before the first day of the event (considering the first official practice as first day).
Anyway, certainly too late for 4CCs. Possibly also the competition scheduled in Italy for next week is too late for OG. I don't remember when the first official practices in Beijing are.

So, does this mean that even if Gracie medals she won't qualify...if that's the case, why is she going to Nationals at all.

 

[StitchMonkey]

So, does this mean that even if Gracie medals she won't qualify...if that's the case, why is she going to Nationals at all.

Because there is more to life/skating than the Olympics.

But yes, even if Gracie wins, she will not be going to the Olympics. Just like Isabeau will not be going if she wins as she is too young. Rules are rules.

But really i think we are over hyping her a lot here. She did great at her last competition, but that does not mean she is 100% back. Let's enjoy where she is now, and celebrate what she can and does do. No need for the no Olympics rain cloud as far as i am concerned.

Go Gracie... whatever your goals may be.

 

[mrrice]

Because there is more to life/skating than the Olympics.

But yes, even if Gracie wins, she will not be going to the Olympics. Just like Isabeau will not be going if she wins as she is too young. Rules are rules.

But really i think we are over hyping her a lot here. She did great at her last competition, but that does not mean she is 100% back. Let's enjoy where she is now, and celebrate what she can and does do. No need for the no Olympics rain cloud as far as i am concerned.

Go Gracie... whatever your goals may be.

This would be the reason that I would go as well. Does this also apply to the WTT at the end of the season? If she medals, I'd think they'd want her to be there for that event. I really hope she has a good experience. After seeing what happened with Liza Tuk, I just want Gracie to be happy.

 

[snowflake]

So, does this mean that even if Gracie medals she won't qualify...if that's the case, why is she going to Nationals at all.

I always thought going to US nationals was a big goal. Even if knowing you wouldn't reach worlds or olympics. Like a celebration for skaters with a dedicated fan audience. Am I wrong getting this impression?

 

[StitchMonkey]

This would be the reason that I would go as well. Does this also apply to the WTT at the end of the season? If she medals, I'd think they'd want her to be there for that event. I really hope she has a good experience. After seeing what happened with Liza Tuk, I just want Gracie to be happy.

WTT is not this year. It is next year.

... Japan Open actually could be a good goal/hope for her now that i think about it.

 

[mrrice]

I always thought going to US nationals was a big goal. Even if knowing you wouldn't reach worlds or olympics. Like a celebration for skaters with a dedicated fan audience. Am I wrong getting this impression?

I don't think you're wrong at all. I would also add that seeing Gracie is a thrill for nearly every US Fan of skating. I for one, would love to be there just to cheer and help her enjoy what will likely be her final trip to Nationals.

 

[moonvine]

Are you the one who tossed the cat among the pigeons?

I tried to get the pigeon away from the cats. But I failed. I was heartbroken.

 

[moonvine]

So, does this mean that even if Gracie medals she won't qualify...if that's the case, why is she going to Nationals at all.

Nationals, and medaling at Nationals, is a goal for many skaters.
Gracie knows what the tech minimums are, and knows she does not have them. Had her sole goal been to make the Olympics, she should have quit after Cranberry Cup, which was the only competition she did where she could have possibly gotten the tech minimums.
The fact that she did not choose to quit shows me she had other goals in mind than making the Olympic team.

 

[moonvine]

I don't think you're wrong at all. I would also add that seeing Gracie is a thrill for nearly every US Fan of skating. I for one, would love to be there just to cheer and help her enjoy what will likely be her final trip to Nationals.

I don’t know why you think that. She’s worked her butt off for several years and is now what I’d say might be 85-90% of her previous peak.

The Olympics aren’t everything, nor are they the only thing. Yes, she is a little bit older but she also started skating later than most and she had several years off where she wasn’t banging away at her body through skating.

Quitting now to me would be like getting 85% of the way up Mount Everest and going oh well I got close I’m done.

The last comp she was in was the first time I’ve seen her enjoy skating since the SP at Worlds in 2016.

And I’ve seen her skate in person more than the average person has.

Not to say she won’t retire, and if she does I will support her in that. But I don’t see the need to forecast it.

I could NEVER do what she’s done. I am in total and absolute awe. I’ve never seen anyone do it before.

She had to start by getting into physical condition to skate. It’s not even like an injury where a skater keeps in condition as well as they can by rehabbing. She had to start from basically zero. Then she had to relearn to skate with an entirely new body. And it was a really long, hard road. Even now she says if she’s out running and thinks she should run another mile she’s got to stop and mentally check herself and see what is really going on - is she trying to punish herself? Is she running away from something? - in a way that most athletes probably don’t have to (or even know how to) do. It’s just…I don’t think people comprehend how hard it is. And I hope she keeps it up as long as she wants to. I’m always in her corner.

 

[moonvine]

I always thought going to US nationals was a big goal. Even if knowing you wouldn't reach worlds or olympics. Like a celebration for skaters with a dedicated fan audience. Am I wrong getting this impression?

No you are 1000% correct. It is a big deal to the skaters to make it, if they don’t have a bye.

 

[mrrice]

I don’t know why you think that. She’s worked her butt off for several years and is now what I’d say might be 85-90% of her previous peak.

The Olympics aren’t everything, nor are they the only thing. Yes, she is a little bit older but she also started skating later than most and she had several years off where she wasn’t banging away at her body through skating.

Quitting now to me would be like getting 85% of the way up Mount Everest and going oh well I got close I’m done.

The last comp she was in was the first time I’ve seen her enjoy skating since the SP at Worlds in 2016.

And I’ve seen her skate in person more than the average person has.

Not to say she won’t retire, and if she does I will support her in that. But I don’t see the need to forecast it.

I could NEVER do what she’s done. I am in total and absolute awe. I’ve never seen anyone do it before.

She had to start by getting into physical condition to skate. It’s not even like an injury where a skater keeps in condition as well as they can by rehabbing. She had to start from basically zero. Then she had to relearn to skate with an entirely new body. And it was a really long, hard road. Even now she says if she’s out running and thinks she should run another mile she’s got to stop and mentally check herself and see what is really going on - is she trying to punish herself? Is she running away from something? - in a way that most athletes probably don’t have to (or even know how to) do. It’s just…I don’t think people comprehend how hard it is. And I hope she keeps it up as long as she wants to. I’m always in her corner.

Well, I did say "Likely" I love to watch Gracie skate and if she is up for skating another season, I will cheer my heart out for her. What I truly hope for Gracie is a happy ending to her career whatever that may mean for her. The reason I spoke about Nationals is that "If" this is her final Nationals, I hope the crowd lets her feel the love we all have for her.

 

[moonvine]

Well, I did say "Likely" I love to watch Gracie skate and if she is up for skating another season, I will cheer my heart out for her. What I truly hope for Gracie is a happy ending to her career whatever that may mean for her. The reason I spoke about Nationals is that "If" this is her final Nationals, I hope the crowd lets her feel the love we all have for her.

I believe they will.

 

[StitchMonkey]

Well looks like Alexa heard the word "Cat" and summoned chaos

https://twitter.com/olyphil/status/1478920005865680902

 

[ptvvibezz]

Looks like Audrey Shin has her 3Lz-3T back to where she had it at last year's Skate America so she could bump some of the top contenders down

 

[catjohnsn2]

Because there is more to life/skating than the Olympics.

But yes, even if Gracie wins, she will not be going to the Olympics. Just like Isabeau will not be going if she wins as she is too young. Rules are rules.

But really i think we are over hyping her a lot here. She did great at her last competition, but that does not mean she is 100% back. Let's enjoy where she is now, and celebrate what she can and does do. No need for the no Olympics rain cloud as far as i am concerned.

Go Gracie... whatever your goals may be.

It's about redemption and validity. She knows the rules and so do her coaches. She's here to skate and I thought she looked great during the practice this afternoon. She knows she won't go to the Olympics but she still had some "skate" inside of her.