who's gonna win 2010 olympic part two

[chinesechanfan]

now that 2010 is coming up in the next two years, i think it's safe to make predictions cuz spontaneous improvements won't happen cuz of the CoP system. it enforces it, but so far, no one is making it happen.

 

[goodbyemylover]

Hmm, I don't think that's entirely true.

Everyone has been hopping around in results the last two years, I think. Tomas Verner's scores, for example, have risen substantially. There are new skaters to the Senior Level that could do the same. Lambiel and Joubert also have had some result jumps in either direction. Weir hasn't been doing as well, Lysacek is a wild card (it's hard to tell where he'll place most of the time). There are also skaters that may or may not develop the quad consistantly in that time.

And your poll doesn't include Plushenko! He might go for two Olympic titles, you never know.

 

[jennylovskt]

I think it should be among Joubert, Lambiel, Takahashi, and Plushenko. I chose Joubert. I love Lambiel's skating more but he has the triple axel issue, I don't know if he could overcome it by that time. Also I'm not sure if he will have the motivation issue again in 2010. Both Joubert and Lambiel have better quad abilities than Takahashi, but Takahashi has the ability to out skate them like in this Worlds. Plushenko will be a bit too old by 2010 if he decides to go to Vancouver. He will skate well, he will do the quad, but I don't know if he will still win the title. I think in general, the quad rules.

 

[Dee4707]

I voted for Brian, Daisuke and Johnny.

Dee

 

[slutskayafan21]

Plushenko and Verner should also be poll options, in fact if you wanted to limit it to 7 they would have made more sense then either Buttle or Weir at this point.

 

[goodbyemylover]

Actually, I'd say Plushenko and Verner would be good choices for additions to the poll. However, I'd remove Oda instead of Buttle especially; he finished ahead of him this year. His short program meltdown, if repeated at an Olympics, would be utterly fatal to a chance at medals.

Buttle, on the other hand, is entirely unpredictable at this point. He had a good showing for such a short season; his training was also halved due to his injury.

All in all, I still feel it's too early to make a decision on the winner. These boys are always full of surprises.

 

[Jaana]

I´ll vote for "others": Tomas Verner

 

[xfuneralforyesterday]

Hopefully Daisuke!

 

[SevenCostanza]

I would love to see Johnny Weir win, if not the gold at least something. Realisticly, I think Lambiel or Plushenko.

 

[Tonichelle]

I have to disagree... with CoP you never flipping know who will come out and win the deal...

 

[zandor]

BRIAN! BRIAN! BRIAN!

 

[morninglight]

Plushenko or Brian

Plushenko and Brian appear to be technically strongest. Lambiel would also be very competitive if he comes to feel strongly about winning. Takahashi would be strongest in steps and presentation skills. But he has been said to have a "glass heart" that crashes under pressure. He says that he is getting better handling the pressure. But it may be a bit difficult to totally control the nature in such a big event. His spins and jumps also appear to be less secure.

 

[Spun Silver]

It seems to me that Takahashi has the determination and humility to overcome any obstacles in his way.

And I will be upset if he doesn't win.

 

[morninglight]

It seems to me that Takahashi has the determination and humility to overcome any obstacles in his way.

I do hope so, too...! Let's be optimistic then

GO Daisuke.
GO Stefan.
GO Jeff

 

[slutskayafan21]

If Lambiel lands all his jumps cleanly and not downgraded(eg-not doing a double axel instead of a triple or something like that), in both the short and free programs I predict he will win gold at the next Olympics. In fact I am almost certain if he does both a clean short and free he will win the next Olympics. Plushenko at 27 wont be the invincible force he was at 23. I could never see Lambiel landing all his jumps and losing to Joubert, Takahashi, Oda, Buttle, Lysacek, or Verner, it is pretty much impossible to imagine any of those beating him landing all his jumps no matter how well they skate. So I am going to go on record as saying if Lambiel lands all his jumps cleanly in both the short and free at the next Olympics he will win the gold almost for sure.

 

[doubleaxel]

I find it funny when people say Buttle is a possible OGM candidate. That's ridiculous. That's just me though.

I think it could be either Joubert or Plushenko. If Plushenko comes back, then I think he would need a 4t/3t/3t to win over Brian Joubert and others without question, since everything else he does the other top men are capable of doing, as well (such as the 4t/3t, which wasn't as common, say, two years ago).

 

[Ximena]

I think it could be either Joubert or Plushenko. If Plushenko comes back, then I think he would need a 4t/3t/3t to win over Brian Joubert and others without question,

I don't think this is completely true. For example let's look at these season. I won't count Olys scores because I will be the first to admit (and I'm a huge Plush fan) that Plush was overmarked in his FS, and also a little in his SP.

Plush hasn't done 4-3-3 for COP so his COP marks are actually marks with one quad.

Joubert's best SP scored is 83.64, the one he did at Worlds. And this scored is lower than three previous scores of Plush, the one at GPF in China, his Tosca CoR and his Olys SP. Now ok so the SP has the same elements and I imagine Plush's scores better than Joubert due the PCS marks.

Their FS, Joubert's 3 quads CoR program scored 160.13 (his personal best at a FS), now I remember the three quads but I don't remember much more so I'm assuming he didn't make any other mistakes, and Plush has beat that score with 167.40 that he had at the GPF in Beijing (he scored 167.67 at Olys) and I don't think he was overscored at all at the GPF, he was truly brilliant there and that program had just one quad.

Joubert's best total it's 240.85 and Plush has beaten that score four times, three if you don't count Olys; and from those four times just once (the Beijing GPF) he was completly clean.

So, really by reviewing their scores, I don't think Plush will need a 4-3-3 to win over the new Joubert; I actually think just with one extra quad he'll do it. And sometimes, just doing the same he has done last season will be enough.

Overall comparing to the rest skaters, the only one that has come close to Plush was Takahashi's NHK performance, and that score even Takahashi has said that he knows he was overscored then. IMO he wasn't in the SP but he was in the FS.

 

[morninglight]

It's kind of tricky to compare scores earned in different competitions. I think that 2006 NHK Trophy was the competition that was by and large overmarked. Nobunari got very high score as well. Takahashi has great artistry, but Plush seems to be stronger in jumps.

 

[morninglight]

I find it funny when people say Buttle is a possible OGM candidate. That's ridiculous. That's just me though.

I don't know if he could get the OGM but I would LOVE to see him on the podium because his skating is so beautiful

 

[slutskayafan21]

I think a clean Lambiel would be a bigger threat to Plushenko then a clean Joubert. Lambiel could score much higher then the 83.64 Joubert got at Worlds if he did a clean short with a quad and a triple axel. He could also score much higher in the free program then Joubert ever could if he landed all his jumps, unless Joubert used his 3 quads and a maxed out jump layout which he never does. Of course Joubert is much more consistent then Lambiel, and much more likely to do a clean program though.