Will Sasha finally win nationals?

[R.D.]

I agree with Red Dog. I think Michelle will stay in until after 2007 nationals. USFS seems to be pushing Kimmie lately as their, "Yes there is figure skating after Michelle" poster girl. Still, I think when the time comes they will make Michelle an offer she can't refuse to stay in until the new TV contract is worked out in 2007.

If that's true that is very bold and risky of them to do IMO. Yes, she landed a triple axel (questionably) and got 3rd at nationals but I think she's a bit young and hasn't proved herself enough to be the "next big thing". Suppose someone else breaks through and does better than her? Look at Cohen...five/six years after her "breakthrough" she is STILL trying to prove herself. The absence of Kwan will be a HUGE void to fill, believe me. And looks like no one is up to it so far. When Kwan leaves,most of her fans will go with her, and I envision national skating on cable/satellite TV as well pretty soon. Heck, even WITH Kwan it seems to be headed that route.

Another X-factor is Kwan herself. Stay or go? If the former is true they don't even need to hype a "next big thing" yet IMO. However, she is getting up there in (skating) years, so...?

 

[nubka]

...

The other thing to keep in mind is ... it's no longer just MK to worry about. Now you have Kimmie, Emily and Bebe all nipping at Sasha's heals. Granted, Michelle is no shoe-in, but I like her chances at Nats better than anyone. That's where she shines.

Except that in Bebe's case, no matter how great she skates, I have a sinking feeling that she is never really going to get the marks that she deserves...

 

[Skate Sandee]

I agree that this whole "wanting to give Cohen a title" is ludicrous(sp?). However, that said a judge at 2004 nationals gave her a 6.0 even with a FALL. AND an uninspired performance.

Maybe NOW it's ludicrous. But only because the grace period where Sasha was hyped to the heavens (in the USFSA's blinding effort to set up a rivalry with Kwan - while ironically ignoring Hughes) has leveled off to a more normal level. God help Kimmie...who's clearly being set up as the next big thing.

But if the characterization of the judges wanting to give Cohen the title is ludicrous, then so is the idea that Nationals is a Kwan Festival/Annual Coronation. She has genuinely EARNED her titles. Many skaters have come close, but their errors kept them from toppling Kwan. That's not a coronation. Sasha is her own worst enemy. I think she'd have at least two titles by now (2002 & 2004) if she could have just stayed vertical. You can't give a skater like Kwan that kind of opening.

I'm not worried about Kwan and COP. She had one of the most poorly constructed COP programs, and still managed to land in 4th place. She had a crappy qualifying round and STILL beat out 4 out of the 5 GP finalists. God help her competitors if and when she actually gets out of neutral and hits the gas! The international judges don't seem to be ready to retire Kwan just yet.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I adore Bebe but I think it will be Kimmie who replaces MK as the American sweetheart. The grooming already started in that Access All. Don't forget Disney owns ESPN as well as ABC. Someone in the Executive Office of Disney watched the Portland Nats and realized there was another young lady who set an American record with that 3A!

Joe

 

[Panther2000]

Maybe NOW it's ludicrous. But only because the grace period where Sasha was hyped to the heavens (in the USFSA's blinding effort to set up a rivalry with Kwan - while ironically ignoring Hughes) has leveled off to a more normal level. God help Kimmie...who's clearly being set up as the next big thing.

But if the characterization of the judges wanting to give Cohen the title is ludicrous, then so is the idea that Nationals is a Kwan Festival/Annual Coronation. She has genuinely EARNED her titles. Many skaters have come close, but their errors kept them from toppling Kwan. That's not a coronation. Sasha is her own worst enemy. I think she'd have at least two titles by now (2002 & 2004) if she could have just stayed vertical. You can't give a skater like Kwan that kind of opening.

I'm not worried about Kwan and COP. She had one of the most poorly constructed COP programs, and still managed to land in 4th place. She had a crappy qualifying round and STILL beat out 4 out of the 5 GP finalists. God help her competitors if and when she actually gets out of neutral and hits the gas! The international judges don't seem to be ready to retire Kwan just yet.

Couldn't have said it better. Michelle who hadn't skated all season for the past 2 seasons just missed. & it was her own falt with a bad skate in her QR. Had she had a skate like she had in the LP she would have been in third. Like you stated if she had not taken so much out of her program & kept messing with it. Michelle will have a great program next year & hopefully continue to see the improvements on her jumps & spins. If michelle can skate 2 flawed programs & still place so high. I do fear what she can do with a clean,emotional, & passionate program. :agree:

 

[R.D.]

But if the characterization of the judges wanting to give Cohen the title is ludicrous, then so is the idea that Nationals is a Kwan Festival/Annual Coronation. She has genuinely EARNED her titles. Many skaters have come close, but their errors kept them from toppling Kwan. That's not a coronation. Sasha is her own worst enemy. I think she'd have at least two titles by now (2002 & 2004) if she could have just stayed vertical. You can't give a skater like Kwan that kind of opening.

Sorry if I wasn't clear before. I didn't say that Kwan DIDN'T deserve her national titles. IIRC actually I stated in another post that I believe she won them fair and square. However, you can't miss the fact that half the audience is there probably just to see Kwan, they will go nuts for her regardless of how she skates, there are Kwan signs all over the arenas, she's the focus of the press, etc. So in that respect IMO Nationals really IS a Kwan Festival/Annual Coronation. JMO though...your mileage will vary.

However, I do agree with you that no one has stepped up to the plate to beat Kwan. I really wish someone would to make Nats a little more interesting. Right now basically all Kwan has to do to win is to show up. Heck, even phone it in if you have to! (ducks and hides)

I really don't think Cohen would have won in '04 if she hadn't fallen. Her performance was flat and boring (IMO). 6.0 for that? I want some of what that judge was on...Kwan on the other hand was the same for the first few minutes but really kicked it up in the last minute of her program. Plus she didn't fall. It was hers all along. I don't know about 2002. Now, in 2005 maybe Cohen might have won if she didn't make any errors on her jumps and pumped it up a little (but I wouldn't want her to because I HATE that program) .

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

For me, Sasha has to get away from Tschaikowsky and all those melodies that the audience knows. She should be drawing in fans to her musicality without using warhorses. What I am saying is jmo. It has nothing to do with winning an event, and wowing the judges with her flexibility.

Her biggest competition at Nationals is MK and possibly Kimmie, if Kimmie comes to life suddenly (it could happen). But I think Sasha has the CoP edge on them.

In International skating, Irina looms above all. The CoP was made for her. Sasha is among the top three, but aside from the flexibility, she doesn't come on strong not withstanding her more balletic line than her competitors. 3x3s are just so dazzling among the ladies that, imo, Sasha has to come up with at least one. While the additional credit given to them is not overwhelming, well executed 3x3s imo, have a psychological affect on other elements in the program

I think working with Nicks will give her the 3x3 that is missing.

 

[chuckm]

I don't think you'll ever see Sasha choose avant-garde music--for her, it's always the trite and true. "Don't Rain on My Parade" is about as far out there as she's gonna get.

Working with Nicks isn't going to make Sasha's technique better. In fact, this year she's double-footed more jumps than she ever has before. She rarely did that under Tarasova or Wagner. I doubt you'll see a 3/3 from Sasha, as she hasn't landed one since 2003 Worlds. You don't have to have 3/3s to rack up the points. I think you'll see a lot more 3/2/2s and combinations with 2As from Sasha, but she will still have stumbles and pops and the occasional splat. She didn't have a single clean program at Worlds 2005, and she had two out of 3 clean at Worlds 2004.

 

[lavender]

I don't think that Sasha has a mental block against competing with Michelle, or that Michelle is in Sasha's head or anything like that. What I think instead is that Michelle hasn't given a bad performance at nationals since 1997, and that's why she has all those titles.

I agree except I htink Michelle had a bad skate in 2000. It just so happens that Sasha fell and double footed her jumps.

The absence of Kwan will be a HUGE void to fill, believe me. And looks like no one is up to it so far. When Kwan leaves,most of her fans will go with her, and I envision national skating on cable/satellite TV as well pretty soon. Heck, even WITH Kwan it seems to be headed that route.

I can't wait. When Kwan leaves I will be gone from this sport that I use to love before MK even hit the scene. COP was nail in the coffin for me.

I'm not worried about Kwan and COP. She had one of the most poorly constructed COP programs, and still managed to land in 4th place. She had a crappy qualifying round and STILL beat out 4 out of the 5 GP finalists. God help her competitors if and when she actually gets out of neutral and hits the gas! The international judges don't seem to be ready to retire Kwan just yet.

Yeah and Carolina even landed a 3/3/3 combo and still Kwan with 4 clean triples beat her in the long program.

Working with Nicks isn't going to make Sasha's technique better. In fact, this year she's double-footed more jumps than she ever has before. She rarely did that under Tarasova or Wagner

Sasha improved artistically with Tarasova but Sasha had tons of 2 footed jumps. Sasha had her best jumps under Robin. Now she's back 2 footing them.

 

[mzheng]

Her biggest competition at Nationals is MK and possibly Kimmie, if Kimmie comes to life suddenly (it could happen). But I think Sasha has the CoP edge on them.

In International skating, Irina looms above all. The CoP was made for her. Sasha is among the top three, but aside from the flexibility, she doesn't come on strong not withstanding her more balletic line than her competitors. 3x3s are just so dazzling among the ladies that, imo, Sasha has to come up with at least one. While the additional credit given to them is not overwhelming, well executed 3x3s imo, have a psychological affect on other elements in the program

I think working with Nicks will give her the 3x3 that is missing.

I guess Kimmie starts her puberty. Check out USFS website for cheesfest photo. She looks much bigger than she was at Nationals.

If Sasha indeed having groin injury like rumored, which I still hold doubt, it is hard for her to get a consistant 3/3. As of right now most of her single triples landed in worlds LP were landing with a wobbling edge.

She could win 2006 Nationals, but Michelle will be there barring injury. After that if she stays she can win 2007 Nationals without MK there.

 

[tannisming]

To me Nationals is a joke. Everyone should know by now it's the Kwan show, nothing more and nothing less. On the World skating scale of things, U.S. Nationals has become a huge joke.

 

[chuckm]

Yup, Kimmie is definitely growing--and fast. According to her current USFS bio, she is 5' tall, but on the All Access show, when she and Paul Wylie were skating in the park, she was nearly as tall as he is (he's 5'4"). She's probably now about 5'3". Three inches in one year is a major growth spurt, and when she starts to fill out a bit, her jumps may be affected.

 

[Mathman]

I think the one who could put it all together and surprise a lot of folks is Bebe. She does not have the fluid ballerina style, but she has her own style, and that's always to the good.

To me, she has it all. It's just that she doesn't have it all, all at the same time, over an entire competition.

Mathman

 

[Piel]

To me Nationals is a joke. Everyone should know by now it's the Kwan show, nothing more and nothing less. On the World skating scale of things, U.S. Nationals has become a huge joke.

And who elected you to speak for the world? If you have some qualifications to legitimize your comments please let us know what they are. If not then I take it that you are just a frustrated Sasha fan whining :boohoo: because Cohen has yet to beat Kwan at nationals.

 

[brad640]

I think Sasha has a clear advantage under CoP after comparing her performances at worlds with Michelle’s.

First, in the QR, both had some mistakes on the jumps (Michelle doubled and two footed, Sasha fell on the 3loop and only got credit for a double). Sasha landed 6 triples, 2 combinations and one 3-3 sequence, and Michelle landed 4 triples and one combination. Sasha won by 14 points, but her lead was only about 3.5 points after the factoring.

Next in the SP, Michelle had a classic Michelle performance with great emotion. Her only mistake was a shaky edge at the end of her spiral sequence, and she still got a level 3 and +1 and +2 GOE on that element. Sasha had a two footed 3f and a time deduction. Under 6.0, I feel certain that Kwan would have won the SP, but Sasha narrowly won by .15.

Then in the LP, both had jump problems again (Michelle fell on the 3s and two footed the second 3z and Sasha fell out of 2 landings and had a shaky edge on another.) Michelle had 3 combinations and Sasha had 2 plus a 3-3 sequence. Sasha won by over 10 points.

Sasha distanced herself from Michelle in the spins. Michelle is not a bad spinner, but her spins are still 6.0 spins that are nice and add variety to the program, but lack changes of position and edge. Sasha maximized the points in the spins with many changes of edge and position. Most notably in the SP layback, Michelle did no changes of position and Sasha did 3.

I think worlds is a good indicator of how both athletes will score in the future under CoP because they were both reasonably healthy, and both made some mistakes. I think at nationals, Michelle will still be playing catch up to Sasha, and she will need Sasha to make several mistakes to overcome the objective side of CoP. Sasha’s disadvantage is that Michelle is great at home as some people have said, and Sasha tends to be freaked out at nationals. However, even if she makes some stumbles, I think she will still come out ahead, unless Michelle works extremely hard on her spins over the summer and comes up with a program that allows her to keep the CoP elements she added this (year like the 3f2t2l) while doing outstanding choreography like she did with Lori.

CoP favors a skater like Sasha, who always has some jump errors, but compensates with great quality throughout the non-jump elements, over a skater like Michelle who is in the 6.0 mindset of skating clean with the total package at the expense of other elements, in her case the spins. Both skaters have great footwork and spirals that received level 2 and 3 and +1 and +2 GOE. Michelle has stronger individual jumps, but Sasha was able to do more jumps in the LP to add up more points.

Of course, there are several months to go before nationals, and the outcome could be affected by injury or Olympic year strange occurrences, but from what I have seen, I give the edge to Sasha to win gold at nationals after many silvers.

 

[tannisming]

Re- Piel

Piel- I could care less about Sasha. Worlds was great and Irena kick everyone's butt. I really like the Japanese. Yes, U.S. Nationals is a joke. Not to be taken seriously.

 

[hockeyfan228]

I think worlds is a good indicator of how both athletes will score in the future under CoP because they were both reasonably healthy, and both made some mistakes. I think at nationals, Michelle will still be playing catch up to Sasha, and she will need Sasha to make several mistakes to overcome the objective side of CoP.

If both Kwan and Cohen compete in GP next year, and the international judges assess PCS like they did in Moscow, then I'd expect this to be reflected in US Nationals judging in 2006. However, if this doesn't happen, I expect Kwan's PCS to top Cohen's regardless of the differential in spins, and for Kwan to win her tenth US title.

 

[Piel]

Why do you think it is a joke? And how are you qualified to determine that?

 

[R.D.]

Everyone should know by now it's the Kwan show, nothing more and nothing less.

And it pretty much is. In fact, I see no evidence to prove the contrary.

I don't know if I would say it's a joke (MK's just better than everyone else it seems) but it certainly is a "one-man show".

And who elected you to speak for the world? If you have some qualifications to legitimize your comments please let us know what they are. If not then I take it that you are just a frustrated Sasha fan whining because Cohen has yet to beat Kwan at nationals.

Why must some Kwan fans call anybody who doesn't like her a Sasha fan? I just don't get this. I saw no mention of Cohen in the original post. Wow. :sheesh: (OK,mini-rant over. I know it doesn't concern me but it bugs me to no end.) It's like it's virtually impossible to not like either Kwan and Cohen (or like both of them for that matter). Another ludicrous theory...

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

To me Nationals is a joke. Everyone should know by now it's the Kwan show, nothing more and nothing less. On the World skating scale of things, U.S. Nationals has become a huge joke.

Is the Russian Nationals a Slutskaya show? Is the Japanese Nationals an Asado show? Is the Finnish Nationals a Poykio show? Is the Canadian Nationals a Joannie show?

We haven't even gotten into the Men, Pairs and Dance. But then there are posters who are only concerned, either posititively or negatively, on one skater. I just wonder if they think there are other competitors and competitions out there.

Joe