Will Sasha finally win nationals?

[brad640]

Sasha stomped Michelle under CoP at worlds, beating her by more than 14 points. Can Michelle make up that much ground by next year, or assuming USFSA institutes CoP, will Sasha finally win a national title?

 

[Piel]

I predict sasha will win her first U.S. title in 2007 if she doesn't retire before then.

 

[nicole_l]

I predict sasha will win her first U.S. title in 2007 if she doesn't retire before then.

I agree, although I think she'll stay in for the 2007 season for one last chance at Nationals & Worlds before retiring.

 

[Ogre Mage]

I will join the chorus saying Sasha will win her first U.S. Nats title in 2007 also, if she stays in for that year.

A lot can happen in a year and MK has some CoP experience now. While her skates at Worlds have been up and down, she's almost always brought her "A" game to U.S. Nats. If you look at the performances from the last two seasons, Sasha had fair skates at U.S. Nats, then much better at Worlds. Michelle skated well at U.S. Nats, then was worse at Worlds.

Still, it certainly is possible that Sasha might win 06 Nats. Her chances will be better under CoP.

 

[Doggygirl]

Well, I want to weigh in since I'll BE THERE!!!

It will be an all US judging panel, right? (I could be wrong there - I just remember a mention that Canadian Nationals was an all Canadian panel so I'm assuming it works the same here)

I suspect that if one of them clearly outskates the other, then that person will win. But if both skate well, I would say MK will be a sentimental favorite - setting a new record for most US Titles, etc. And I think she might have a fan advantage in the stadium. I almost think competing with MK at Nationals might be more of a "psych" for Sasha than international competitions where Sasha has a) participated in more of them, at least in recent years and 2) beat MK twice at Worlds.

MK cannot afford to bring an empty program though...

I HOPE they are both competing!!

DG

 

[Ogre Mage]

I suspect that if one of them clearly outskates the other, then that person will win. But if both skate well, I would say MK will be a sentimental favorite - setting a new record for most US Titles, etc. And I think she might have a fan advantage in the stadium. I almost think competing with MK at Nationals might be more of a "psych" for Sasha than international competitions where Sasha has a) participated in more of them, at least in recent years and 2) beat MK twice at Worlds.

DG

Yeah, I think U.S. Nats might be a bit of a psych out for Sasha as well, because of Michelle's history at the event and the fact that Sasha's only real competition is MK. At the international events, the competition is much more wide open and I think it helps Sasha focus more on her own performance.

 

[Tonichelle]

I think it will depend on how they skate next season both at nationals and prior to. I don't think Michelle should sit out the GP this coming season... she needs to get used to the CoP before the olys, or she might be left off the podium again


and if she keeps Bolero she might not want to even bother showing up...

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I see no reason why Sasha can not win the US Nationals in 2006. She has proven herself to be a high scorer under the CoP, and I believe the USFSA has terminated the 6.0 system. I think she is the odds on favorite. St. Louis will be a veeeerrry interesting venue.

There is the much Disney hyped Kimmie, the determined Hughes girl, my adorable Bebe, and the Dowager Queen of the US Nationals.

Joe

 

[bronxgirl]

Sasha has always been her own worst enemy at nationals. She could have won in the past, but Splasha took her place on the ice. I hope that Michelle and sasha stay healthy and turn in exquisite performances at the same time. Then I might be able to actually give an objective opinion of who deserves to be the National champion.

 

[soogar]

I hope Sasha doesn't win nationals. I think it's best for her to keep under the radar like this year and kick a$$ at the Olympics which is far more important anyway.

 

[MidnightNess]

I hope Sasha doesn't win nationals. I think it's best for her to keep under the radar like this year and kick a$$ at the Olympics which is far more important anyway.

see that's my plan only the other way around. i made a contract with the skategods a few years ago to give the past two world titles to someone else, let sasha win the 2006 nats with michelle finishing second/third and then let kwan come in kwuietly to take home the..the..well you know. i ain't saying it

 

[jenaj]

Did Sasha really beat Michelle by 14 points? That says to me that Michelle can beat her under COP, assuming she doesn't have another disastrous skate like her QR, in which Sasha beat her by...14 points.

 

[Fossi]

I don't think Sasha will win Nationals. I think it will probably be Kimmie, if not Michelle. Sasha may have gotten the 2nd place at Worlds, but her performance was nothing to write home about. Still making mistakes on jumps and 2 footing them. Many people, myself included, would've had Sasha in 3rd and Carolina in 2nd. Sasha needs a wake up call and she's not getting it.

 

[mzheng]

I don't think Sasha will win Nationals. I think it will probably be Kimmie, if not Michelle. Sasha may have gotten the 2nd place at Worlds, but her performance was nothing to write home about. Still making mistakes on jumps and 2 footing them. Many people, myself included, would've had Sasha in 3rd and Carolina in 2nd. Sasha needs a wake up call and she's not getting it.

Well, to be fair Carol also made a lot mistakes in her jumps. IIRC she doubled a few?

 

[R.D.]

Will she win Nationals? I don't know. However, as long as MK is around, it's a resounding NO. Even if the international panel scores Cohen higher than MK I just don't see that happening at U.S. Nationals. MK's got a streak going and it won't be stopped unless Cohen CLEARLY outdoes her. MK will have to be completely off (like the 2005 worlds QR), too. Nationals to me is the Kwan Festival/Annual Corronation(sp?) and no one can stop that.

MK doesn't sound like one who wants to quit. For some reason I actually see her competing minimally (like she's doing now) after '06- maybe to '07 or '08. In the case of Cohen, she's in MK's shadow right now. Even if Cohen goes into the Olympics the reigning national champion (yeah right) the spotlight will be on MK's third try. Just look at this worlds where most of the press here was on MK's fourth place finish rather than Cohen's silver medal.

If anyone needed a wake-up call though it's MK. The status quo isn't working anymore. But here's the thing: is MK actually losing her consistency? She seems to have more off days than usual now. If she loses her national title next year that would REALLY be a sign of the times. However that's just not going to happen.

 

[equestrianguy]

So Sasha isn't staying around in amatuer skating until the 2010 olympics? Hmm, I thought she would stay around after MK retires? I think MK will stay around until she wins that 10th National title and be the all time most wins in history. Also, Sasha deserved the silver medal. Carolina had two fall outs on her jumps and doesn't have near the presentation skills as Sasha.

 

[nymkfan51]

While I agree that the 2006 Nationals will be more difficult for everyone, I still don't see Sasha as the favorite. For whatever reason, Michelle gets in her head.
And you can throw away these past Worlds results. Michelle will never skate that badly again. If she stays in for the next season, she will be ready ... whether or not she does the GP.
The other thing to keep in mind is ... it's no longer just MK to worry about. Now you have Kimmie, Emily and Bebe all nipping at Sasha's heals. Granted, Michelle is no shoe-in, but I like her chances at Nats better than anyone. That's where she shines.

 

[Ogre Mage]

Also, Sasha deserved the silver medal. Carolina had two fall outs on her jumps and doesn't have near the presentation skills as Sasha.

ITA.

 

[Mathman]

I don't agree that the judges will automatically be hoping either for Michelle to beat Sasha or for Sasha to beat Michelle. Yes, the two big media stories will be Michelle going for number 10 and the composition of the Olympic team. But the Michelle story will be just as big whether she succeeds or fails.

It does not seem to me that the judges are all that impressed with public pressure or with what the media thinks or expects. If they were, Sasha would have myriad titles by now based on Peggy Fleming alone ("She's the best in the world").

There seems to be a general belief on discussion boards that the U.S. judges are just itching for the chance to give Sasha a title. I don't see it. I see that when she has skated well, as in the short program several times, she gets high marks, and when she doesn't, she doesn't.

I don't think that Sasha has a mental block against competing with Michelle, or that Michelle is in Sasha's head or anything like that. What I think instead is that Michelle hasn't given a bad performance at nationals since 1997, and that's why she has all those titles.

I agree with Red Dog. I think Michelle will stay in until after 2007 nationals. USFS seems to be pushing Kimmie lately as their, "Yes there is figure skating after Michelle" poster girl. Still, I think when the time comes they will make Michelle an offer she can't refuse to stay in until the new TV contract is worked out in 2007.

JMO.

Mathman

 

[R.D.]

Yes, the two big media stories will be Michelle going for number 10 and the composition of the Olympic team. But the Michelle story will be just as big whether she succeeds or fails.

ITA. This is partly what I was trying to say in my other posting but I think you said it better than I did...

There seems to be a general belief on discussion boards that the U.S. judges are just itching for the chance to give Sasha a title. I don't see it. I see that when she has skated well, as in the short program several times, she gets high marks, and when she doesn't, she doesn't.

I agree that this whole "wanting to give Cohen a title" is ludicrous(sp?). However, that said a judge at 2004 nationals gave her a 6.0 even with a FALL. AND an uninspired performance.