Women and the Quad

[ec00834]

I honestly think rika is overrated, she’s never been consistent even in juniors and her programs are subpar this year with 0 interpretation. Sasha will be in a league of her own

I've never understood why people who diss Sasha love Rika. I see both of them as having impressive jumps, ok skating skills, and not a lot of interpretation. But it's probably because she's the only non-Eteri student who has a chance of challenging the 4A.

 

[Amei]

I agree Raf sounded pretty disengenuous and I'd say hypocrytical because if I remember correctly Nathan started training quads pretty early as well. And now he also has Gogolev who is 14 and jumps a lot of quads.
I do however think that Trusova, maybe Kihira and maybe Tursynbaeva will be the only ladies (of the current crop attempting them) capable of jumping these elements in a couple of years. Trusova because her elements are clearly based on power and height, Kihira because of her great technique and Tursynbaeva because she already does it.
I know it is probably a controversial view but I don't see Shcherbakova, Valieva or Liu doing their quads when they are 18/19 years old because their quads are based on a crazy fast rotation and it doesn't seem like a sustainable technique to me. Only time will tell however.

Raf may be right however it looks very hypocritical that his 2 star male skater are jumping quads one of them being a 14 year old junior, and it looks self-serving because his main ladies skaters struggle to have consistent triple-triples so it was difficult for them to be competitive in previous seasons; add in skaters adding quads and it doesn't look promising for top ten finishes for girls that struggle to do a single triple-triple combination. Look at Shcherbakova she did 3 triple-triple combinations at Lombardia 2 of them were in the bonus section.

 

[skatergurl7]

I've never understood why people who diss Sasha love Rika. I see both of them as having impressive jumps, ok skating skills, and not a lot of interpretation.

Tbh I’m not a huge fan of either, while I do admire their technical ability and pushing the boundaries. If it were up to me Alena would win everything (or Kamila when she turns senior, perfect balance between technical and PCS). But I don’t think rika will challenge Sasha at all this year. TES wise, Sasha has her beat by a mile and agreed with you about both of their PCS scores. Should be around the same if judges are being fair

 

[ec00834]

Raf may be right however it looks very hypocritical that his 2 star male skater are jumping quads one of them being a 14 year old junior, and it looks self-serving because his main ladies skaters struggle to have consistent triple-triples so it was difficult for them to be competitive in previous seasons; add in skaters adding quads and it doesn't look promising for top ten finishes for girls that struggle to do a single triple-triple combination. Look at Shcherbakova she did 3 triple-triple combinations at Lombardia 2 of them were in the bonus section.

Agree. It's also so strange that so many people have established that skaters who do quads like Trusova and Shcherbakova have bad skating skills. Even Kamila doesn't deserve her PCS according to some people because her program is just "leg kicks."

 

[readernick]

Rika has pretty good SS, I would say slightly better than Sasha and Anna but not by a wide margin. And transitions, I mean? Daniil's programs are known for being packed with transitions. All around skating is kind of subjective. Imo, Rika's skating isn't super impressive; she doesn't perform or interpret as well as some other ladies (I would say about equal to Sasha and worse than Anna). She does have textbook technique but judges don't really reward that.

I don't understand why so many people think Elizabet's quad was UR. I genuinely can not see how (even in slow motion) it could be considered more than 90. Rika's on the other hand looks sometimes UR sometimes downgraded. Her fast rotation hides it well tho.

Imo, the best all-around skater is Aliona. I want to say she has the best skating skills out of all the senior ladies even Satoko, her skating is just exquisite. Her jumps are huge and I don't think she needs multiple quads to be competitive as long as she gets fair PCS.

Agree to disagree about Rika compared to Anna and Sasha. Her SS, posture, use of extension, ability to stay on the music is far above theirs. She is far superior PCS wise with the exception of interpretation. Anna interprets her long program well. Yes, they have transitions but they don’t have the SS to do them well. ( especially Anna.. her Step sequences are difficult to watch... really better to look at her expressive face and not watch those feet)

I think you need to watch a video of those quads side by side. I did. It wasn’t one of those faked videos it was just side by side jumps in real time. They had equal rotation. Elizabet’s quad was at the 90 degree point which according to rules is UR. That tech panel missed a lot of UR not just hers. They were definitely being kind to all the skaters. Rika’s quad is not close to downgraded ( at least her more recent attempts)it is at 90 degrees in practice... (We all know Rika is often less impressive in competition than practice)

Aliona is amazing. Compared to all the other Russian girls she deserves the highest PCS. One of the best in the world. But, again, PCS is not given fairly it is usually linked to consistency and tech advantage. She has the consistency but not the tech advantage. My feeling is that she is not going to get the high PCS she deserves. I hope I am wrong.


In regard to jump BV, you are forgetting that Rika adding the 4S allows her to add another 3eu3 and get rid of a double jump. So, her actual base value will be higher. She gets to replace 2lo with 3S. Others have done the math correctly and the actual base value difference between the two in the short/ long is just over 4 points not 10. Rika gains over 4 points in the short and loses over 8 points in the long. She also got about 4 points higher in PCS in the first competition. Which means clean Rika and clean Trusova would have just about tied.

Again the real issue is who will be cleaner in competition. Last year, the both had about a 50% success rate on difficult elements. Trusova looks very stable this year. Rika looked quite stable despite her injury at ACI. But, I think Trusova is a better competitor and that will probably win the year.

 

[readernick]

I've never understood why people who diss Sasha love Rika. I see both of them as having impressive jumps, ok skating skills, and not a lot of interpretation. But it's probably because she's the only non-Eteri student who has a chance of challenging the 4A.

I don’t diss either but Rika’s SS are far better. I don’t see how any non biased person can’t see that? Even former Russian skaters were commenting that Rika’s SS were superior to Alina’s last year.

Interpretation is a much more subjective element.

They both have impressive jumps. Sasha’s have height and power and Rika’s have distance, good technique and good landings.

Honestly, all these girls are amazing. I hope they all have a tremendous year!

 

[lzxnl]

I disagree.

First, there is a matter of consistency - if Kihira`s 4S is as stable as her 3As, she can just as well lose to a bunch of girls with no quad or 3A at all.
As an example, lets look at her 3A in short last year (short because no mess with combo success rate factored into it):
Nepela: 3A fall, 3.00 (with fall deduction)
NHK: 3A< fall, 2.00
GP France: 1A*, 0.00
GPF: 3A clean, 10.51
4CC: 1A*, 0.00
Worlds: 1A* 0.00
The average is 2.58, which is less than a clean 3A

But ok, suppose its a game where everybody skates clean. Jumps only.

Trusova`s TES in SP: 2A, 3F, 3Lz+3Lox = 20.48 + 4.97 GOE she got at Nepela
Trusova`s FS, cleanish: 4Lz, 4T+3T, 4T, 2A, 3Lz+2Lox, 3Lz+1Eu+3Sx, 3Fx = 63.96 + 12.39
Trusova`s FS if clean: 4Lz, 4T+3T, 4T, 2A, 3Lz+3Lox, 3Lz+1Eu+3Sx, 3Fx = 67.48 + 14.99
Total if clean: 25.45 + 82.47 = 107.92

Kihira (using ACI as reference, and her free at NHK last year, which was her best scoring FS):
SP: 3A, 3F+3T, 3Lo = 22.89 + 4.28 GOE at ACI
FS: 3A+2T, 3A, 3F, 3S, 3F+3T, 3Lz+2T+2Lo, 3Lo = 52.53 + 12.09
Total if clean: 27.17 + 64.62 = 91.79

Also, keep in mind that Trusova hits her levels, so there won't be a huge difference in other elements. The only difference would be PCs, really.
So, Trusova loses 2 points in TES in SP (she backloads her combo, and has a 3Lz instead of a 3T, that makes up for a good part of the 3A advantage).
And in the FS, Trusova has an advantage of 18 points or so, due not to quads only, but also to an overall much harder layout.

Now, 4S BV is 9.70. It would replace a jump though, so its not like full BV and GOE will be added. Assume thats a +6 (4.5BV + 1.5GOE on top of her 3S) points to Rika, and still a gap of 10 points between both girls.

Lets look at their PCs.
At ACI, Rika got 34 + 69. That is what she was getting last year too, so its not like it is an exceptionally low score.
At Nepela, Trusova got 32 + 65.

An advantage of 6 points for Rika compared to a girl competing in seniors for 1st time. Bad news, Trusova's PCs will raise.

Mathematically, Trusova's quads, backloaded combos, 3Lzs across 2 programs beat Rika's 3x3A and a 4S.

The one assumption I won't question is the assumption that Rika will land the 4S; without that assumption, obviously nothing is worth comparing.

Assumptions I will question:
1. Rika also normally does 3 lutzes, it's just that a minor leg injury prevented her from doing a 3Lz at ACI. If you take her WTT short from last season, for instance, where she landed her entire layout, you'd find a jump base value (+GOE)
3A = 8.00 + 2.86 -> 10.86
3F + 3T = 9.50 + 1.51 -> 11.01
3Lz = 6.49 + 2.11 -> 8.60

Add on GOEs, her jumps total 30.47.

Now, for Rika's free skate, you actually took her ACI free skate, because her 2018 NHK layout was
3A+3T, 3A, 3Lo, 3Lz+2T, 3F, 3Lz+2T+2Lo, 3S
If we take the scores that actually correspond to her NHK jump layout, we find
3A + 3T = 12.20 + 2.63 = 14.83
3A = 8.00 + 3.09 = 11.09
3Lo = 4.90 + 1.54 = 6.44
3Lz + 2T = 7.20 + 1.69 = 8.89
3Fx = 5.83 + 1.59 = 7.42
3Lzx + 2T + 2Lo = 9.79 + 1.26 = 11.05
3S = 4.73 + 1.17 = 5.90

This gives a total jump value of 30.47 + 65.62 = 96.09, a gap of 11.83.

Now, if you take a look at Rika's planned content this year, she plans on swapping out a 2T+2Lo with a +Eu+3S and then plans to replace the 3S with a 4S. Overall, she replaces a 2T+2Lo with a 4S, Eu. For simplicity, I will neglect the +10% bonuses. A 2T+2Lo is worth 3, a 4S and Eu are worth 10.2, giving her an extra 7.2 base value. If we give her any kind of +GOE on her 4S, like a +2, the same GOE will not be applied to her 3S, which the above does involve in calculations, so the net GOE gain is about 1 point. Thus, Rika stands to gain around an extra 8 points from her 4S.

The TES gap is now 3-4 points. You may make a comment about Sasha's PCS rising. However, keep in mind that Rika gave a relatively uninspired performance of her programs at ACI too, so her PCS could very well rise too. Thus, it is dangerous to try and compare their PCS scores after any rises.

Basically, the point is, if you have a TES gap of 3-4 points and a PCS gap of about 6 points, it's an even competition. Rika has three difficult jumps and one difficult combination to land: two solo 3As, one 3A+2T and a 4S. Sasha has three difficult combinations and two difficult jumps to land: two 3Lz+3Lo (which she has struggled with at times), 4Lz, 4T, 4T+3T. It's easier than you might think for either skater to mess up. Thus, my conclusion is this: if they both skate perfectly clean, which would be extraordinary, it's down to the judges. If any of them makes mistakes, it's a matter of who messes up more. I will agree, however, that Sasha is more likely to skate perfectly clean than Rika, and that is the only reason I give the advantage to Sasha. If Rika shows any ability to skate her programs consistently, it'll be much more even.

 

[ec00834]

Agree to disagree about Rika compared to Anna and Sasha. Her SS, posture, use of extension, ability to stay on the music is far above theirs. She is far superior PCS wise with the exception of interpretation. Anna interprets her long program well. Yes, they have transitions but they don’t have the SS to do them well. ( especially Anna.. her Step sequences are difficult to watch... really better to look at her expressive face and not watch those feet)

I think you need to watch a video of those quads side by side. I did. It wasn’t one of those faked videos it was just side by side jumps in real time. They had equal rotation. Elizabet’s quad was at the 90 degree point which according to rules is UR. That tech panel missed a lot of UR not just hers. They were definitely being kind to all the skaters. Rika’s quad is not close to downgraded ( at least her more recent attempts)it is at 90 degrees in practice... (We all know Rika is often less impressive in competition than practice)

Aliona is amazing. Compared to all the other Russian girls she deserves the highest PCS. One of the best in the world. But, again, PCS is not given fairly it is usually linked to consistency and tech advantage. She has the consistency but not the tech advantage. My feeling is that she is not going to get the high PCS she deserves. I hope I am wrong.


In regard to jump BV, you are forgetting that Rika adding the 4S allows her to add another 3eu3 and get rid of a double jump. So, her actual base value will be higher. She gets to replace 2lo with 3S. Others have done the math correctly and the actual base value difference between the two in the short/ long is just over 4 points not 10. Rika gains over 4 points in the short and loses over 8 points in the long. She also got about 4 points higher in PCS in the first competition. Which means clean Rika and clean Trusova would have just about tied.

Again the real issue is who will be cleaner in competition. Last year, the both had about a 50% success rate on difficult elements. Trusova looks very stable this year. Rika looked quite stable despite her injury at ACI. But, I think Trusova is a better competitor and that will probably win the year.

If you can find a link, please send it. I really want to see them side by side.

And yeah, your opinion I guess, but I would give ability to stay on music to Anna. Imo, Rika rarely connects with the music. Also, none of them have bad posture or bad skating skills. I can see why you think Rika may have the edge but she is not vastly superior to the other quadsters. I agree that it all comes down to consistency, which Rika has never been great at (but Anna not so much either).

 

[readernick]

I honestly think rika is overrated, she’s never been consistent even in juniors and her programs are subpar this year with 0 interpretation. Sasha will be in a league of her own

This is just a hate post which contains no accurate/informative information. Rika wasn’t consistent in juniors but her consistency improves a lot each year. She won GPF and all competitions last year but worlds. Her long program last year was so admired that Jennifer Thomas ( the composer of her music in the long )is a new fad in fs. There are so many programs using her music this year. I don’t think she has 0 interpretation. No one has zero interpretation. Even if we don’t personally respond to someone’s skating their is no reason to dismiss them in this manner.

 

[ec00834]

I don’t diss either but Rika’s SS are far better. I don’t see how any non biased person can’t see that? Even former Russian skaters were commenting that Rika’s SS were superior to Alina’s last year.

Interpretation is a much more subjective element.

They both have impressive jumps. Sasha’s have height and power and Rika’s have distance, good technique and good landings.

Honestly, all these girls are amazing. I hope they all have a tremendous year!

Oops sorry that wasn't aimed at you. Rika may have better flow but that doesn't mean Alina or Sasha have "choppy skating" according to some. I just don't think her SS are "far better."

 

[skatergurl7]

This is just a hate post which contains no accurate/informative information. Rika wasn’t consistent in juniors but her consistency improves a lot each year. She won GPF and all competitions last year but worlds. Her long program last year was so admired that Jennifer Thomas ( the composer of her music in the long )is a new fad in fs. There are so many programs using her music this year. I don’t think she has 0 interpretation. No one has zero interpretation. Even if we don’t personally respond to someone’s skating their is no reason to dismiss them in this manner.

Just because she won doesn’t mean she was consistent, she usually flopped the SP then tried to come back in free. Unfortunately that doesn’t always work (re: worlds). And interpretation like the most of PCS scores are subjective. I see no connection or interpretation to the music in either program this year or last year for that matter.

 

[jenaj]

Rika’s long program last year was, for me, the program of the year. She has beautiful flow over the ice and if she missed one of her triple axels here and there, so what? The point value is still probably close to a double. If she gets a quad, she will be contending for gold at Worlds.

 

[skatergurl7]

Rika’s long program last year was, for me, the program of the year. She has beautiful flow over the ice and if she missed one of her triple axels here and there, so what? The point value is still probably close to a double. If she gets a quad, she will be contending for gold at Worlds.

Have to disagree with you on this one I guess, I think for both Sasha and rika if you take away the quads/3A there’s not a memorable program left. Imo Sasha’s programs this and last year are a tad more exciting with the jumps because of how the music and program is structured with the build up and anticipation. I find Rika’s programs incredibly boring and forgettable but this is just my opinion *

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I honestly think rika is overrated, she’s never been consistent even in juniors and her programs are subpar this year with 0 interpretation. Sasha will be in a league of her own

You’re welcome to your opinion but Rika won tons of competitions last year (6/9 she entered, including 4CC and GPF). I have no idea how that could be deemed inconsistent.

 

[skatergurl7]

You’re welcome to your opinion but Rika won tons of competitions last year (6/9 she entered, including 4CC and GPF). I have no idea how that could be deemed inconsistent.

Depends what you deem as consistent versus not. 6/9 of those competitions she wasn’t against girls with quads and she didn’t skate two programs back to back cleanly either

 

[Alex65]

The results of past seasons will not matter when they meet face to face. Be patient. It is coming soon.

 

[skatenewbie]

Depends what you deem as consistent versus not. 6/9 of those competitions she wasn’t against girls with quads and she didn’t skate two programs back to back cleanly either

She did won over Tursynbaeva who have quad in 4CC even though her attempt is not successfull

 

[flanker]

You’re welcome to your opinion but Rika won tons of competitions last year (6/9 she entered, including 4CC and GPF). I have no idea how that could be deemed inconsistent.

Alina won tons of competitions last season as well, yet she was not only called inconsistent, she was even advised to retire. Back to Rika, her 3A was inconsistent the whole season with the success rate only slightly above 50 % (just less inconsistent than the previous junior season). From the perspective if the consistency, Sasha's quads are the most consistent ultra-c elements in ladies skating.

 

[flanker]

I don’t diss either but Rika’s SS are far better. I don’t see how any non biased person can’t see that? Even former Russian skaters were commenting that Rika’s SS were superior to Alina’s last year.

Interpretation is a much more subjective element.

They both have impressive jumps. Sasha’s have height and power and Rika’s have distance, good technique and good landings.

Honestly, all these girls are amazing. I hope they all have a tremendous year!

Those "even former russian skaters" was just one skater, actually, and that was just a partial mentioning, not that Alina's SS as a whole are weaker. "How any nonbiased person" is in fact sign of completely biased comment, part of the jigsaw of your personal expressions.

To me, Rika is the type of a skater who just does what is she told to do. Smiles when she is told to smile in her program, looks sweet when she is told to look sweet. To me she is still juniorish in the sense of feelings. That's not denying of her technical skills, but as a performer she still has only minor impact on me. She still can grow artistically, but in this moment she is still nowhere close to Alina or other top russian girl in the presenting of deep feelings.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Depends what you deem as consistent versus not. 6/9 of those competitions she wasn’t against girls with quads and she didn’t skate two programs back to back cleanly either

How many quadsters have consistently skated back to back cleanly? Also Kihira’s ability to do a 3A offsets the quadsters (who have yet to land one save for Liu), because she is able to get an advantage in the SP. Face to face this season will be interesting and you never know what can happen. Kihira was a favourite going into Worlds and faltered. Tursynbaeva was a long shot and nabbed silver. I think the quadsters are sound technicians but let’s see how they face pressure when the competitions and stakes are higher.