Jason Brown does not plan quad for Worlds

[gmyers]

http://www.isuresults.com/results/fc2015/fc2015_Men_FS_Scores.pdf

In the FS at Four Continents, Jason got positive GOE on both triple axel passes, so at least occasionally, he has two triple axels.

Yes the facts are clear

 

[Li'Kitsu]

This is not a fact. Here's where Brown placed.

All time best spins:

1. Stephane LAMBIEL 5.00
2. Shoma UNO 4.86
3. Michael Christian MARTINEZ 4.80
3. Takahiko KOZUKA 4.80
5. Nathan CHEN 4.79
6. Jason BROWN 4.70

Even for 2014-2015 Brown is not the best:

1. Shoma UNO 4.86
2. Jason BROWN 4.70

The numbers Doris reposted from me are from this season, stating he's the best spinner currently, so the first part of your post has zero to do with that claim anyway.

Also, you simply look at one single spin element, and list one single number from one single competition. How does that mean more than the average of a whole season regarding both the average GOE and the percentage of hit elements? Bad logic.
Additionally, you only list the complete point total: BV + GOE. So this is very dependent on a skater happening to get the highest GOE for the spin with the highest BV - which is not at all necessary for scoring higher on spins overall. Let's really break that Jason vs. Shoma thing down regarding the 4CC SPs, where Shomas highest score on your list comes from (but not Jasons, FYI):
Both men did the same spins: CCSp, FCSP and the CCoSp. So same BV here. Shomas GOE respectively: 0,64, 0,79 and 1,36 (combined 2,79). Jasons: 1,07, 1 and 0,93 (combined 3). They simply score higher GOE on different spins, but Jason wins overall because his GOE are more equal between his spins. How does that make Shoma the better spinner overall?

The only thing I'd give you is that I didn't include Shoma in my stats, because I decided to stick to Seniors and Shoma is still a Junior internationally (except for 4CC), so I don't know how his averages over the whole season stake up towards Jasons. But I don't see the point in comparing Junior vs. senior scores.

PS:
In case you want to bring up the 4CC LPs: Shoma scored slighty higher than Jason there (12,41 to 12,16), because Jason lost a level on a spin which is the only time it ever happened for him all season. That lost him 1,3 points. He still scored higher GOE than Shoma overall: 3,36 to 2,71.

 

[Tavi...]

The best scores in spins.

You're comparing apples to oranges. The analysis Doris links to is quite a bit more complicated than who got the single highest score for a spin in 2014-2015.

 

[Tavi...]

LOL. Is that the strategy - wishing their competitors to fall - they have been claimed and used since...?

FSU, US mens thread, post #928.

 

[el henry]

The numbers Doris reposted from me are from this season, stating he's the best spinner currently, so the first part of your post has zero to do with that claim anyway.

Also, you simply look at one single spin element, and list one single number from one single competition. How does that mean more than the average of a whole season regarding both the average GOE and the percentage of hit elements? Bad logic.
Additionally, you only list the complete point total: BV + GOE. So this is very dependent on a skater happening to get the highest GOE for the spin with the highest BV - which is not at all necessary for scoring higher on spins overall. Let's really break that Jason vs. Shoma thing down regarding the 4CC SPs, where Shomas highest score on your list comes from (but not Jasons, FYI):
Both men did the same spins: CCSp, FCSP and the CCoSp. So same BV here. Shomas GOE respectively: 0,64, 0,79 and 1,36 (combined 2,79). Jasons: 1,07, 1 and 0,93 (combined 3). They simply score higher GOE on different spins, but Jason wins overall because his GOE are more equal between his spins. How does that make Shoma the better spinner overall?

The only thing I'd give you is that I didn't include Shoma in my stats, because I decided to stick to Seniors and Shoma is still a Junior internationally (except for 4CC), so I don't know how his averages over the whole season stake up towards Jasons. But I don't see the point in comparing Junior vs. senior scores.

PS:
In case you want to bring up the 4CC LPs: Shoma scored slighty higher than Jason there (12,41 to 12,16), because Jason lost a level on a spin which is the only time it ever happened for him all season. That lost him 1,3 points. He still scored higher GOE than Shoma overall: 3,36 to 2,71.

Merci beaucoup, Li'Kitsu; as someone who can barely add 2 and 2, I like seeing the statistics, *and the numbers behind the statistics*. I am educating myself from the statisticians here.

Statistics that have nothing to do with your post ("all-time") and do not list the supporting numbers have little educational value for me.

 

[dorispulaski]

Stephane was an amazing spinner.

But FWIW, after all these change of edge and similar requirements were added to COP, Stephane did not always get level 4's for his gorgeous spins any more, which I have always regarded as unjust. In the free skate at the 2010 Olympics, his flying spin was level 3

http://www.isuresults.com/results/owg2010/owg10_Men_FS_Scores.pdf

At 2008 Worlds (his last worlds) one spin was level 3 and another was level 1
http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2008/WC08_Men_FS_Scores.pdf

You really cannot compare scores from different eras, because rules, GOE tables, and base levels keep changing.

 

[Alchamei]

Stephane was an amazing spinner.

But FWIW, after all these change of edge and similar requirements were added to COP, Stephane did not always get level 4's for his gorgeous spins any more, which I have always regarded as unjust. In the free skate at the 2010 Olympics, his flying spin was level 3

http://www.isuresults.com/results/owg2010/owg10_Men_FS_Scores.pdf

That's a thing I don't like about IJS. One skater may be totally unflexible and sloppy during spins, but as long as they get level 4, they might score better than someone with much better looking spin but missing one or more rotations and positions to be level 4.

At 2008 Worlds (his last worlds) one spin was level 3 and another was level 1
http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2008/WC08_Men_FS_Scores.pdf

You really cannot compare scores from different eras, because rules, GOE tables, and base levels keep changing.

That's a thing I don't like about IJS. One skater may be totally unflexible and sloppy during spins, but as long as they get level 4, they might score better than someone with much better looking spin but missing one or more rotations and positions to be level 4.

 

[Alchamei]

I didn't expect this thread might grow that much. I will also say something then. As much as I like Jason I am worried a lot how his future will look like. However, he said one amazing thing mentioned earlier, nobody expected him to win JW without triple Axel and he did. He won't probably medal at Worlds this year, but who said he can't attack Top 5? Also, Patrick Chan got his quad also in his twenties and then he managed to perform brilliant quad combination. Jason still have a big hope. He is still only 20. And who said one can't enjoy his programs when he doesn't have a quad? His programs are nicely choregrafed and he is a great performer. He still makes magic and I belive he will continue with that. Btw, I really love his spins!

 

[Mrs. P]

I didn't expect this thread might grow that much. I will also say something then. As much as I like Jason I am worried a lot how his future will look like. However, he said one amazing thing mentioned earlier, nobody expected him to win JW without triple Axel and he did. He won't probably medal at Worlds this year, but who said he can't attack Top 5? Also, Patrick Chan got his quad also in his twenties and then he managed to perform brilliant quad combination. Jason still have a big hope. He is still only 20. And who said one can't enjoy his programs when he doesn't have a quad? His programs are nicely choregrafed and he is a great performer. He still makes magic and I belive he will continue with that. Btw, I really love his spins!

I totally dig your post! But wanted to clarify the he said he won junior world medal (bronze) and the gold medal at the junior Grand Prix final (both in the 2011-2012 season) w/o a 3A. When he won the junior world silver (and won the FS overall) he had done 3 triple axels.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Merci beaucoup, Li'Kitsu; as someone who can barely add 2 and 2, I like seeing the statistics, *and the numbers behind the statistics*. I am educating myself from the statisticians here.

Statistics that have nothing to do with your post ("all-time") and do not list the supporting numbers have little educational value for me.

Thank you, good to know people like reading all those numbers

 

[Alchamei]

I totally dig your post! But wanted to clarify the he said he won junior world medal (bronze) and the gold medal at the junior Grand Prix final (both in the 2011-2012 season) w/o a 3A. When he won the junior world silver (and won the FS overall) he had done 3 triple axels.

I forgot to add ,,medal'' after JW. This happens a lot to me. Glad you agree. I think it may seem bad for him since he has worked on a quad since 2013 or something like this but for now I want to mainly enjoy his great programs.

 

[Sandpiper]

@silverlake22
"The Russian Fed likes Kovtun" and "The Russian Fed likes Plushenko (more)" are not incompatible statements. They can be true at the same time.

If Kovtun medals, it will be based on TES, yes. But, well... TES can be overscored just like PCS. Did you see the GOE handed out at Europeans? :shocked: Kovtun got some -1s for massive step-outs/hand downs. Would Max get those scores for similar mistakes? I doubt it.

If Russia had men like Jason/Josh/Adam, Kovtun would be down in fourth place? Nope. To begin with, I don't think Jason would be able to implement his current strategy in Russia. He'd be pushed to do a quad, to work on that as first priority, or else he won't be given the GOE/PCS to get out of Nationals. And international judges won't give him the GOE/PCS either, if he doesn't have his country's backing.

For instance, I think Menshov has better programs and more emotional connection than Kovtun... but does he get better PCS, well, anywhere? No. And if Menshov took out all his quads, would he be able to improve his spins/footwork/transitions/speed? Probably. But why would he do that? He's not going to get extra PCS/GOE even if he makes improvements in those areas. His only hope is to outjump Kovtun, so that's what he tries to do. (And Voronov, btw, did outjump Kovtun at Nationals... but it still wasn't enough).

Of course the Russian Federation isn't going to back Kovtun forever... but they're backing him right now. USFSA is not backing Max.

 

[gmyers]

@silverlake22
"The Russian Fed likes Kovtun" and "The Russian Fed likes Plushenko (more)" are not incompatible statements. They can be true at the same time.

If Kovtun medals, it will be based on TES, yes. But, well... TES can be overscored just like PCS. Did you see the GOE handed out at Europeans? :shocked: Kovtun got some -1s for massive step-outs/hand downs. Would Max get those scores for similar mistakes? I doubt it.

If Russia had men like Jason/Josh/Adam, Kovtun would be down in fourth place? Nope. To begin with, I don't think Jason would be able to implement his current strategy in Russia. He'd be pushed to do a quad, to work on that as first priority, or else he won't be given the GOE/PCS to get out of Nationals. And international judges won't give him the GOE/PCS either, if he doesn't have his country's backing.

For instance, I think Menshov has better programs and more emotional connection than Kovtun... but does he get better PCS, well, anywhere? No. And if Menshov took out all his quads, would he be able to improve his spins/footwork/transitions/speed? Probably. But why would he do that? He's not going to get extra PCS/GOE even if he makes improvements in those areas. His only hope is to outjump Kovtun, so that's what he tries to do. (And Voronov, btw, did outjump Kovtun at Nationals... but it still wasn't enough).

Of course the Russian Federation isn't going to back Kovtun forever... but they're backing him right now. USFSA is not backing Max.

You are so correct. Kovtun is being allowed to exclude artistry from his skating and do FUSPs. That would never be allowed in America. It's all very explicit that its all quads and no artistry and weak spins. Max aaron has to do so much pretending but would be russian champion like kovtun so easy and with no problems. But smarter strategy is America's. all their three men could be top 10 and Russia only has two and are being predicted to be behind all the Americans by people like Wong. Farris is considered much stronger for medal than kovtun or voronov.

 

[Sandpiper]

You are so correct. Kovtun is being allowed to exclude artistry from his skating and do FUSPs. That would never be allowed in America. It's all very explicit that its all quads and no artistry and weak spins. Max aaron has to do so much pretending but would be russian champion like kovtun so easy and with no problems. But smarter strategy is America's. all their three men could be top 10 and Russia only has two and are being predicted to be behind all the Americans by people like Wong. Farris is considered much stronger for medal than kovtun or voronov.

Well, for the record: I'm not going to necessarily label it artistry. Let's call it "non-jump COP material" (spins, transitions, GOE, ect.)

Wong is one person, and I think most would agree that both Russians being behind all three Americans is a, er, bold prediction, to say the least. Farris is considered the strongest medal contender because he's the closest to having both the jumps (a quad, an excellent triple axel) and the other stuff (interesting spin positions, pleasing programs). Now that Josh won't be doing the SP quad, Han Yan is probably closest to the complete package compared to any Russian/American man. (Well, except his inconsistency and repetitive programs... but that goes for Javi too )

It's not about jumps "or" COP stuff. It's about which you get first, and what the country pushes when they can't have both. If Kovtun and Jason stay the way they are for the rest of their careers, neither of them will win anything big.

And in all fairness to Kovtun (and Voronov): They do have better consistency on the jumps than Max. So even if Max were Russian, he wouldn't "easily" be National champion. Top 3, certainly, and #1 when he's on, but that's hardly all the time. (However, if Max, Josh, Jason, and Adam were all Russia, I suspect Max and Josh would be the Top 2, in either order; that's more what I was getting at).

 

[gmyers]

Well, for the record: I'm not going to necessarily label it artistry. Let's call it "non-jump COP material" (spins, transitions, GOE, ect.)

Wong is one person, and I think most would agree that both Russians being behind all three Americans is a, er, bold prediction, to say the least. Farris is considered the strongest medal contender because he's the closest to having both the jumps (a quad, an excellent triple axel) and the other stuff (interesting spin positions, pleasing programs). Now that Josh won't be doing the SP quad, Han Yan is probably closest to the complete package compared to any Russian/American man. (Well, except his inconsistency and repetitive programs... but that goes for Javi too )

It's not about jumps "or" COP stuff. It's about which you get first, and what the country pushes when they can't have both. If Kovtun and Jason stay the way they are for the rest of their careers, neither of them will win anything big.

And in all fairness to Kovtun (and Voronov): They do have better consistency on the jumps than Max. So even if Max were Russian, he wouldn't "easily" be National champion. Top 3, certainly, and #1 when he's on, but that's hardly all the time. (However, if Max, Josh, Jason, and Adam were all Russia, I suspect Max and Josh would be the Top 2, in either order; that's more what I was getting at).

I agree that it would be max and josh in Russia. I was using artistry to mean pcs. "Non jump cop material" is not important for Russian men at all. This hurts them internationally a lot and why neither are getting anywhere near a medal. Farris would only be among max because of quad and triple axel. But he would absolutely be forced to have a quad in the sp. this would benefit aaron in Russia but hed still be equal to voronov and kovtun internationally in pcs. Seemingly high but not actually near world medalist pcs.

 

[karne]

#maxandjeremyforWTT

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I'm still waiting for the thread "Maxim Kovtun doesn't plan to attempt artistry at WC's"

Ill gladly hope Kovtun does his best. There is no right way to the top of the mountain

 

[Interspectator]

I'm still waiting for the thread "Maxim Kovtun doesn't plan to attempt artistry at WC's"

Ill gladly hope Kovtun does his best. There is no right way to the top of the mountain

Oh, that made me laugh soooo hard! Yes, Maxim is the anti-Jason. But both their strategies bring them about the same scores. -Which I think is fair.

There are skaters who get labeled 'jumpers' and skaters who get labeled 'artists' but it's not as simple as that.
If Maxim could actually land his jumps well he'd get much higher scores, same with Max Aaron and Mura. They often don't.

Jason is labeled an 'artist' but the jumps he does, he does quite well. Adam is also an artistic type, but his jumps tend to be messy.

 

[peg]

I'm still waiting for the thread "Maxim Kovtun doesn't plan to attempt artistry at WC's"

In fairness, there probably wouldn't be a "Jason doesn't plan quad at Worlds" thread if he hadn't actually attempted a quad at a previous competition. So in order for Kovtun to get a "Maxim Kovtun doesn't plan to attempt artistry at Worlds" thread, he would have had to actually attempt artistry at a previous event

 

[Skater Boy]

Sure, because it's only Jason's ponytail that gets him the marks that he gets now.

I won't argue that Jason doesn't have the skating skills of a Lambiel, Buttle, or Chan, but he definitely maximizes all of the points in between the jumps with his spins, footwork, and transitions, and he is also excellent at performing for the audience in a way that few of the skaters currently in the field can do. The argument is also possible that Jason's performance style is more extroverted than Lambiel's, Buttle's, or Chan's, which makes it more appealing to some viewers. I have appreciation for both introverted and extroverted artistry, but it can be difficult to compare both styles.

If you don't care for the skaters without quads, I'm sure there's better justification than their hairstyles.

It's sarcasm my friend. My point is I just don't get what is so great about Brown. Nice guy but that doesn't mean he should get such generous marks. Rippon and When on Farris have better skating qualities imho.