Why is it so hard to transition from Juniors to Seniors?

[moonvine]

I have a long list of skaters who were great as Juniors but just couldn’t make the transition to seniors.

I know growth spurts are one reason but they can’t be the only one.

 

[yume]

I have a long list of skaters who were great as Juniors but just couldn’t make the transition to seniors.

I know growth spurts are one reason but they can’t be the only one.

Injuries. There must be injuries that are not career ending but too much bothering to practice as much as before or land some jumps. Maybe it's why Samohin is doing so poorly so far while in juniors it wasn't so bad.

Money. Serafima Sakhanovich had to leaves Moscow so Eteri's camp because of money. Her new training environnement was clearly not enough to keep up with Medvedeva as she was doing in juniors.

Competition. One word, RUSSIA. WOMEN SKATING IN RUSSIA. Girls from Davydov's camp are realistic. They prefer to retire or switch to pairs before even turning seniors, than to try to keep up with quadsters and fall behind. There are other options in life than skating.

Coaching situation. Stability brings stable results. But there are skaters who changes coaches every year or two years. Tarakanova or even Marin Honda are examples.

Of course growth spurt as you said. It's more brutal for some than others.

 

[surimi]

In pairs and ice dance, there are many teams that split in their later junior years, and I feel there are more of these splits among juniors than seniors (which makes sense as seniors have often stopped growing, and have a clearer idea of what they want in the future). Some of those partner swaps work well (Mishina is now more successful with Galliamov than in juniors with Mirzoev), but in other cases it takes time to breakthrough, or it may not happen again (the split of Nguyen/Kolesnik - too early to tell if she's going to match her former success in the upcoming years with Smirnov).

In some cases the senior field is more stacked than the junior field (Japanese men for instance), and getting team spots could be challenging if the current best are longeval, really good, and consistent. There's no age limit for seniors after all.

A thing that has sometimes been mentioned is that juniors tend not to succumb to pressure as much as seniors.

Also, it must be hard to combine going to university with skating, both being quite expensive in some countries like the US.

 

[moonvine]

Also, it must be hard to combine going to university with skating, both being quite expensive in some countries like the US.

This is so true. In the US there is such a thing as collegiate skating and the championship pays a financial prize but it isn’t a huge amount.

 

[surimi]

I have also been wondering what's become of the formerly very successful junior skaters. It would be interesting to see a list of JGPF/JW medalists or top 6 finishers in the last Olympic cycle, to see who remained and who wasn't able to follow up with their junior success.
There are skaters who have completely disappeared from international events, which might have been contributed to by the pandemic and smaller events getting cancelled. The JW silver medalist Savosin comes to mind. IDK if he was injured, but a 250+ score from GP Russia in 2020 wasn't bad at all, and yet he's stuck in domestic events now. I think in countries like Japan and Russia, if you happen not to be healthy plus mentally strong at the right time (Nationals, big events), you can easily become the one who's good, but not good enough so the federation stops sending you abroad, and it must be very hard to keep one's motivation then. The fields are super competitive, and for Russia it's true for both seniors and juniors.
And I've recently remembered Ting Cui - someone said she didn't qualify for US Nats this time. These are the skaters I feel sorry for the most, junior medalists who miss their senior debut with two GP spots due to injury, and then have a hard time coming back and getting assignments. -_- It must suck so much, not to know if one will be able to get those two spots again. It happened to Samsonov this season, who was also about to debut; we'll see if he can come back and regain those two spots eventually. Sometimes you get super lucky (like Yuhana Yokoi this season - not all that much success in seniors so far, but many Japanese women are WD this year, or are ineligible, so she's going to 4CC despite no points yet this season, and no top 10 last Nationals finish). But sometimes you get really unlucky. Sometimes one needs to change countries to become relevant in seniors (Gubanova).
Sometimes skaters struggle with both motivation and health issues (Marin Honda, who has been kind of fading after her first senior season).

 

[BlackAxel]

Growth spurts can play a huge factor, but I also think a lot of it boils down to poor technique and/or not having the mental toughness in competitions.

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

A lot of the men immediately try and add in a bunch of quads, like Andrei Mozalev and his 4F. They're not used to doing two quads in a SP anyway, and oftentimes they are just chucking as many big jumps at the wall as they can. Which, of course, means injury. Shun Sato, Andrei Mozalev, and Daniil Samsonov were three of the top juniors in the 2019-20 season. Daniil is still struggling with injury, and Mozalev was injured last season and had a rough go of it, as did Shun. And, of course, Panfilova/Rylov are still out with injury. Plus, as others said, the mental strength it takes to compete on seniors is a lot, as well as having to wait to get good PCS scores. Poor coaching can also be an issue. If you're going through a growth spurt, now is probably not the time to work on another quad or finally get that triple axel.

 

[Greengemmonster]

This is why Kamila fascinates me! She was a teeny tiny little thing (still is! but she was more frail looking as a junior) and a bunch of people said her technique would fail and she can only jump with the tiny body etc etc (the usual insults). She has grown heaps in height and muscle and the quads and 3A are superb! I really would love an in depth breakdown of why she's conquering all her jumps.

Sasha is similar too. Quads as a junior but I think her quads are even better as a senior. Especially the quad lutz which is tough but is her money jump. Triples seem to be a walk in the park. When she falls, you can kind of see that it's a mental issue not a "losing her jumps" issue.

Are they just gifted? Lucky with the perfect body shape that grew well? Or did they work out well and built a body for jumping?

 

[surimi]

If you're going through a growth spurt, now is probably not the time to work on another quad or finally get that triple axel.

But that is easier said than done when a kid is bent on becoming JWC or YOGM, and knows s/he needs to up the TES to have a chance -_-

 

[litenkyckling]

I think this varies between disciplines, but for ice dance such a huge part of it is the packaging - going from being up against other teenagers to the likes of H/D who are quite obviously adults it can be hard to be seen as looking "senior". Obviously there are a lot of other factors too, speed, consistency, finding an identity etc but I also think much of that can come with maturity too (thinking along the lines here of say Jean-Luc Baker, Michael Parsons, Zach Donohue - who, in my opinion, all really began to hit their stride in terms of packaging when they were more towards their mid-twenties).

 

[yume]

Are they just gifted? Lucky with the perfect body shape that grew well? Or did they work out well and built a body for jumping?

I think they are naturally gifted (especially Trusova) but they did also work out. They are all muscles. The contrast with 15yo Zagitova and 17/18yo Medvedeva 4 seasons back is strong.

They don't practice the same jumps layouts so they must build a strong body for those hard jumps.

 

[CrazyKittenLady]

There are skaters who have completely disappeared from international events, which might have been contributed to by the pandemic and smaller events getting cancelled. The JW silver medalist Savosin comes to mind. IDK if he was injured, but a 250+ score from GP Russia in 2020 wasn't bad at all, and yet he's stuck in domestic events now.

We discussed this a couple of months ago in the Russian Men's thread and the general consensus was that RusFed is not willing to fork over the money for their "lower-level" skaters to compete internationally in the CS or Senior Bs. Russia is the only local competition scene I follow closely (apart from my native Austrian one ), and I have seen some great performances there by skaters who very sadly might never even make it out of Russia.

Savosin is a beautiful performer, quite artistic and he also has the "baby" quads, but he didn't have the best skate at his first senior GP in 2019, and then missed his second GP due to injury and has been buried in the Russian field ever since. It is one of my major grievances this season that RusFed did not give him a CS assignment to get a SB after he performed well in the Russian Cup series.
A similar case is 2018 JWC gold medallist Alexey Erokhov, who suffered multiple stress fractures in his foot at the beginning of his first senior season and had to miss both of his GPs. He struggled through one season going back to local junior competitions, then basically sat out a second one before deciding to change coaches. Last year he showed signs of improvement until his old injury became aggravated again, forcing him to skip Nationals. Finally this season he rose like a phoenix (words of the commentator) and laid down a phenomenal FS at the first Russian Cup event which turned me into an instant and loyal fan. In his case RusFed at least gave him one CS assignment, but he was visibly nervous and couldn't really cash in on it. Then again, the pressure must be insane, knowing that this one competition might decide the trajectory of your whole future career.

Sorry for the novel, but I've been thinking about this topic a lot lately, because it also makes me very worried for the upcoming juniors. For someone like Ilya Yablokov or Artem Kovalev, their only chance at senior GP assignments (apart from the host spot) is a medal at JWC and that is no small feat with the likes of Ilia Malinin and Shun Sato also competing there this year. And once you get stuck in the local Russian competitions as a senior, history tells us that it is quite difficult to dig your way out of there. I wish RusFed would just max-out their CS and senior B assignments, but they always let a lot of spots go to waste. As a fan I don't care, I would watch the guys skate on a frozen pond in Siberia, but at one point I guess it becomes difficult to stay motivated when the international competitions aren't coming and of course funding is also always an issue.

So that's my rather bleak take on that whole topic, admittedly very focussed on Russia, but as I said, I just don't have enough knowledge about other local scenes.

 

[moonvine]

Growth spurts can play a huge factor, but I also think a lot of it boils down to poor technique and/or not having the mental toughness in competitions.

I’ve heard that this is a major problem in the US and that a lot of Learn to Skate instructors don’t teach correct jump technique from the start. I guess this isn’t a problem for most skaters because they are probably learning to skate for fun or maybe to enter some small local competitions. But for the few who make it further this obviously is a real problem. It’s not like the average parent would take this into account for their 4 or 5 year old and I don’t think Raf is going to start teaching LTS classes.

 

[4everchan]

so many of these comments are true... i'd just like to add : life !

Often teenagers love their sport (or art) but then they want to pursue other things : university, social life, love, even just discovering yourself, your own personality etc !
We see the same in music.. there are so many children who are prodigiously talented ! And then, they vanish ! Not everyone has the same goals in life... and often, a passion will evolve into a hobby... For instance, in my field, I hated touring... being on planes to get to places in a rush (very different from traveling for holidays) , and performing in different cities without always appropriate rest or preparation etc... I stopped doing that very quickly.. It's not for everyone

 

[mrrice]

Personally, I think one of the biggest problems is that people change and become more vocal in what they want out of their careers. In my case, I felt like I had outgrown the studio I began in. I also think it can be difficult for a coach to see their student change the way that some students do. It is a very difficult balance because there is a lot that changes in your life at that age and sometimes you just need a change. In some cases it doesn't work out and that is a very difficult time for all involved. I remember Nicole Bobek talking about how difficult it became once she went to high school because she saw her friends having fun and she had to go to the rink. One of the biggest blowups I ever had with my Father was when I went to a HS Football Game on Friday Night. I had a bad competition the next day because I was tired. There is new pressure as the more you advance, the more expensive skating becomes. There are big decisions to be made and the pressure is huge. I don't remember which skater it was but, her parents had to mortgage their house just so she could continue skating. A lot of parents won't go that far to support their child in a sport that doesn't become lucrative until you Win Big.

 

[el henry]

Because life is not a straight shot.

I know that's a glib answer, but for men, it has little to do with growth spurts, or dedication to the sport, or practicing, or jump technique. Here are the JWC men's champions for the past ten years:

Hanyu, Rogozine, Farris, Nguyen, Uno, Samohin, Zhou, Erokhov, Hiwatashi, Mozalev

They are all skated senior, to my knowledge, after their championships. Of course, not every one will then become a senior champ because they then compete against each other. And some more than others.

 

[CrazyKittenLady]

Of course, not every one will then become a senior champ because they then compete against each other. And some more than others.

Or they struggle with potentially career ending injuries. Some more than others.

 

[SnowWhite]

It would be interesting to see a list of JGPF/JW medalists or top 6 finishers in the last Olympic cycle, to see who remained and who wasn't able to follow up with their junior success.

I'll include top 6 from JW starting with 2018 (since that was after the last Olympics) and all JGPF qualifiers from 2018-19 and 2019-20 (not including this year, since they're all still Jr obviously).

• Skoptcova/Aleshin (2018 JW gold)
• Carreira/Ponomarenko (2018 JW silver)
• Ushakova/Nekrasov (2018 JW bronze, 2018-19 JGPF silver, 2019 JW 5th, 2020 JW 4th)
• Lajoie/Lagha (2018 JW 4th, 2018-19 JGPF 4th, 2019 JW gold)
• Shevchenko/Eremenko (2018 JW 5th, 2018-19 JGPF gold, 2019 JW bronze)
• Green/Green (2018 JW 6th, 2019 JW 7th)
• Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov (2018-19 JGPF bronze, 2019 JW silver)
• Nguyen/Kolesnik (2018-19 JGPF 5th, 2019 JW 4th, 2019-20 JGPF silver, 2020 JW gold)
• Kazakova/Reviya (2018-19 JGPF 6th, 2019 JW 6th, 2019-20 JGPF gold, 2020 JW silver)
• Shanaeva/Naryzhnyy (2019-20 JGPF bronze, 2020 JW bronze)
• Khudaiberdieva/Filatov (2019-20 JGPF 4th)
• Davis/Smolkin (2019-20 JGPF 6th, 2020 JW 5th)
• Demougeot/Le Mercier (2019-20 JGPF 5th, 2020 JW 6th)

That gives 13 teams. 4 have since split (Green/Green, Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov, Nguyen/Kolesnik, Khudaiberdieva/Filatov). Gordon Green retired, and Caroline is doing very well in her new partnership in seniors. N/K both have new partners, but we haven't seen them much/at all, so too soon to say. Elizaveta Khudaiberdieva split from Nazarov, partnered with Filatov, then split from him to skate with Bazin. They're doing pretty well in seniors, but are kind of in the middle of a bunch of Russian teams.

Of the teams that have stayed together, 3 will be going to the Olympics (Lajoie/Lagha, Kazakova/Reviya, Davis/Smolkin). The D/S has been discussed more than enough. L/L are solidly the #3 Canadian team in seniors at this point. K/R have missed some time with injuries, but do have the advantage of skating for a small fed in terms of getting spots.

For the others who've stayed together, I'll go by country. From Russia we have Skoptcova/Aleshin, Ushakova/Nekrasov, Shevchenko/Eremenko and Shanaeva/Naryzhnyy. S/A struggled at first in their first season out of Jr with injury, then had up and down international results and pretty good National ones. They ended up 3rd at RusNats last season with S/K out, but dropped this year down to 6th. U/N were up and down and had struggled even during their time in Jr, and injuries have plagued them. They were 7th at RusNats this season. S/E had a pretty strong domestic season last year, but have been dealing with the effects of CV and possibly injury this season, and have only competed once. S/N are only in their 1st Sr season right now. They had a rough first GP, a couple decent Challengers and a pretty good Nationals result.

From the US we have Carreira/Ponomarenko. They had good results their 1st couple of senior seasons, seemed to stagnate a bit, made a coaching change and have really struggled this year and dropped. Although there are rumours that Anthony has been dealing with a significant foot injury, which may be a big part of this year's issues. From France we have Demougeot/Le Mercier. This is their first Sr season. I'd say it's been going fine, especially since they were a good Jr team, but not winning JW medals or anything. There's room in French dance right now with Galyavieva/Thauron splitting, Lauriault/Le Gac switching to Canada and P/C maybe not staying past these Olympics, so they'll get opportunities. They are going to Euros.

Conclusions: Most of the teams are still together (and all the split teams have at least one member still competing), with different levels of success so far. Several have struggled with injury, and particularly the Russian teams have a lot of depth at home to get through. I would also say that several of these teams are still looking for their identity, program wise (imo).

 

[moonvine]

so many of these comments are true... i'd just like to add : life !

Often teenagers love their sport (or art) but then they want to pursue other things : university, social life, love, even just discovering yourself, your own personality etc !
We see the same in music.. there are so many children who are prodigiously talented ! And then, they vanish ! Not everyone has the same goals in life... and often, a passion will evolve into a hobby... For instance, in my field, I hated touring... being on planes to get to places in a rush (very different from traveling for holidays) , and performing in different cities without always appropriate rest or preparation etc... I stopped doing that very quickly.. It's not for everyone

I should have clarified. I’m more thinking about athletes who are very successful on the Junior level (JGPF medalists/world medalists) and then try (sometimes for years) to be successful in seniors and never really do it. A recent example (so far) in the US would be Camden. (JGP Gold Medalist, JGPF silver medalist, Junior US champion). No senior medals of any color, either National or international, that I can find.

 

[YuBluByMe]

I think in countries like Japan and Russia, if you happen not to be healthy plus mentally strong at the right time (Nationals, big events), you can easily become the one who's good, but not good enough so the federation stops sending you abroad, and it must be very hard to keep one's motivation then. The fields are super competitive, and for Russia it's true for both seniors and juniors.

Injuries and puberty aside, this is the biggest reason. After all, one doesn’t suddenly have talent on Monday and lose that talent on Friday. Juniors and seniors have completely different fields. When you become senior, you are now skating against the top skaters in the world and you will have to do what they are doing technically to join their ranks. In the men’s field, if you want to be on the podium on the major international stage, you need to be consistent with a two-quad SP, three quad FS because that is what the top guys are doing. If you want to beat the top guy, you will need to do more. It is even harder if the skater is in a country where the top skaters in the world are there. In a field like Japan, where the top three guys in the country are also among the top five in the world and have been for a long time, it’s going to be hard for a junior skater to break through. The only way to get major international assignments will be to beat one of them and so the men will attempt difficult technical content they cannot handle. Eventually, they’ll hurt themselves or lose motivation when they fail.

This may be off-topic, but I took note of how many men attempted two-quad SP and three quad FS at Japan, US, and Russian Nationals. I'm going to mention here to illustrate a point about the Russian men in particular.



Japan – Field of 32

2 quad SP: 5. 10 quads, 8 landed cleanly. 80%

3 quad FS: 7. 26 quads. 17 landed cleanly. 65%



United States – Field of 14

2 quad SP: 3 men. 6 quads, 6 landed cleanly. 100%

3 quad FS: 3 men. 14 quads, 10 landed cleanly. 71%



Russia – Field of 18

2 squad SP: 13 men. 26 quads, 15 landed cleanly. 58%

3 quad FS: 13 men. 37 quads, 22 landed cleanly. 59%



In Japan and United States, the stats are similar. Kagiyama and Sato are new seniors and they are breaking through because they are doing what the top guys are doing and doing it somewhat consistently. A Japanese junior skater turning senior next season will have to do the same.

Unlike Japan and United States, most of the men in Russia are attempting these layouts, not just the top. I think Russian men especially do not seem to transition to seniors well. A good many were brilliant as juniors and then didn’t meet expectations as seniors. Growth spurts seem to affect them more for whatever reason, but it's not just that because it's happened too many times. I've noticed that a lot of their men are attempting very difficult jumps or combinations - I think there were at least four 4Los in the FS and even a 4S+3Lo in the SP. Russian men are often ridiculed and unfavorably compared to the ladies; you won't have to look far to see a comment that Valieva should skate the FS for the men in the Olympic team event. This can't be good for them and its contributes to why their men are attempting so many more quads than the Japanese men despite Japan having almost twice the field at their Nationals.