If 3 quads will be needed by 2018 then lord help us, the men's free skate might be even a bigger disaster than 2014.
I don't think Hanyu needs to worry about any younger skater from now, it's about Chan, Denis and Fernandez. I think he needs to worry more about himself actually, about his health and mind state. He will compete with the younger skaters eventually, and sorry, but I think Uno has a much brighter future if we talk about young skaters. What separates the top skaters and the no names is the PCS and we know PCS doesn't count only basic skating qualities and performance, it's about going up on the ranks and showing that you're a contender. Boyang needs to do that, and great peformances after another in the international stage is the key, Boyang can have as much quads as he wants but he needs some consistency in them or else he will never be a true contender, the guys with less tech will. BV is a virtual number, what counts is what you execute. You can have as much BV as you want but if you don't execute and, even so, if the judges doesn't grant you with the PCS, honey, you're out. Kevin Reynolds would be Olympic Champ from now if BV was the key. (Nothing against Kevin) and not Yuzuru, who 'built' his PCS during 2013-2014 season with doing clean shorts and a cleanish free at GPF, where it mattered. Or do you think Hanyu consistently receiving PCS on 40s at the short and PCS in 90s for the free was possible for him in 2012 or even at the beginning of 2013?
PCS is indeed unreliable, but this is true mostly for unkown skaters and what they should work on in order for it to become reliable. Once you achieve certain success PCS is your second money and nothing will take it from you, only yourself. An effective path would be: Have reasonable tech + perform relatively well several times and put your name out there. Have out of the world tech and don't do the second requirement is of no use, judges will drop you in the blink of an eye.
Of course, for the unkown guys with less tech (not too little!) if they also don't execute the 'fall' will be even bigger, but there's a higher chance of them do skate cleanish and build PCS. I see no reason for Boyang to be doing all those quads as a success plan from now, he's doing it probably because it's his only weapon and he obviously likes it, but he's also working a bit on presentation since last year which will serve him well.
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As good as Yuzuru's skating skills are by now, he doesn't get that much closer to the boards all the time and this is noticeable especially at the LP, this is an area that he can still improve and I have faith that he will.
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Is there a problem for Hanyu to skip that award ceremony or it doesn't matter much? I'm not familiar with this type of thing.