Chan v. Hanyu: 2015-16

[Ice Dance]

Yuzu's backloaded triple axles make a huge difference for him. And I'm curious to see what happens as the young guys come up, more used to training backloaded programs. Always one of the major challenges in staying in for another quadrennium is that the younger kids who grew up training under the rules become your competition. But by the time those kids are experienced, the rules will change again and they will have to face the same dilemma. I think this is why PCS is so important for athletes who stay at the top for more than one quad. It's almost a given that the younger kids are eventually going to out-jump you. (Plushenko & maybe Menshov excepted). So you'd better grow as a performer before they do.

As for the having to peak at Japanese Nationals, does Yuzu? I've never known Japan to leave a current World medalist off the team. (They may have. I just don't recall. I do recall several times when they purposefully selected those athletes onto the team). I think Yuzuru is definitely the kind of athlete who likes to compete. (He chose to go up against Patrick at SC). And of course he wants to win Nationals. There's a lot of honor that goes along with that, but I'm not sure he has to peak there.

 

[MaxSwagg]

So to recap that data I compiled, beginning with 2004 Skate America-2014 GPF: there hasn't been an increase in the percentage of competitors falling more than once in major competitions (GP series, GPF, Euros, 4CC, Worlds). There has been a slight increase in the number of falls a skater has and still wins ("steady-state" since 2010-2011 season of about 1 fall per winner). Most falls for a winner was 4 at 2010 Skate Canada (which Patrick won ). Though the percent of quads getting at least -0.5 GOE has steadily increased. If someone wants to start a data/stats thread I'll post the specific data. Not really related to to this thread per se but...oh well. I also have PCS trends for the top men since their senior debuts (Patrick, Dai, Yuzu, Javi, Denis).

 

[4everchan]

we can make stats say anything... you say most falls for a skater who still won.. is patrick with 4.. i say most falls for a skater who still was on the podium is yuzu with 5 at cup of china 2014... what will matter is how they skate this year... the data is great and fun to look at but stats out of context isn't reliable...

So to recap that data I compiled, beginning with 2004 Skate America-2014 GPF: there hasn't been an increase in the percentage of competitors falling more than once in major competitions (GP series, GPF, Euros, 4CC, Worlds). There has been a slight increase in the number of falls a skater has and still wins ("steady-state" since 2010-2011 season of about 1 fall per winner). Most falls for a winner was 4 at 2010 Skate Canada (which Patrick won ). Though the percent of quads getting at least -0.5 GOE has steadily increased. If someone wants to start a data/stats thread I'll post the specific data. Not really related to to this thread per se but...oh well.

 

[MaxSwagg]

we can make stats say anything... you say most falls for a skater who still won.. is patrick with 4.. i say most falls for a skater who still was on the podium is yuzu with 5 at cup of china 2014... what will matter is how they skate this year... the data is great and fun to look at but stats out of context isn't reliable...

Well, that's why I made the distinction "skaters who WON" and not "made the podium." And it's not for predicting anything; it's just interesting to see trends, whether it's inflation trends, increases in TES (with respect to value changes), etc. And I'm not "making stats say" anything; I'm just "saying" what happened.. The numbers are what they are. If, for example, Patrick fell 4 times and won at that particular competition, that's what happened. If Yuzu fell 5 times and made the podium at that particular competition, that's what happened (...and you are just saying what happened). If Javi had that particular success rate in major competitions last season for a 4S, that's what happened. As I said. It's just interesting to some people. If it's not your thing, just keep on scrolling...

 

[shiroKJ]

we can make stats say anything... you say most falls for a skater who still won.. is patrick with 4.. i say most falls for a skater who still was on the podium is yuzu with 5 at cup of china 2014... what will matter is how they skate this year... the data is great and fun to look at but stats out of context isn't reliable...

Accurate stats can only say the numbers they're presented with, not just anything. Just because someone doesn't like what the numbers say doesn't make it false. You can post your own data comparisons as well, just as everyone else is.

By the way thank you everyone your hard work Its fascinating seeing the numbers layed out

 

[4everchan]

i think you and maxswagg don't understand my point... yup .. data is interesting and actually what dasani shared with us is incredibly revealing... what i am saying when i say that "we can make stats say anything" is when we pick something that is out of context... like who won with most falls... that's not a very meaningful stats to analyze as it doesn't say much about the rest of the field, which jumps were still completed, the number of points ahead from the SP , etc etc etc... so that's why i brought up the who got to the podium with 5 falls... i am perfectly well aware that yuzu had just had a huge whipplash and was actually quite upset that he and Han still skated... it could have been disastrous.... so yeah... does yuzu fall 5 times usually ? nope... what do these stats tell us? do i need to elaborate? I think the chart by dasani is very interesting... what i like less is when information is taken out of context, or used without a real sample (that's for those who don't know is what validates stats.... for instance, if YUZU had fallen ONCE on a 2A, considering he never uses that jump, does that mean he can't land it??? nope.. sample is too small... for his 3A sample is large and shows how amazing he is with that jump... anyways... i am overexplaining as some may have not understood the first time around...

Accurate stats can only say the numbers they're presented with, not just anything. Just because someone doesn't like what the numbers say doesn't make it false. You can post your own data comparisons as well, just as everyone else is.

By the way thank you everyone your hard work Its fascinating seeing the numbers layed out

 

[Layback11]

I love how scientific and analytical this thread is...a breath of fresh air from the DRAMAFEST Mao Vs. Liza thread!

 

[4everchan]

LOL who would have thought!!! HAHAHAHAHA but it's refreshing indeed

I love how scientific and analytical this thread is...a breath of fresh air from the DRAMAFEST Mao Vs. Liza thread!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Well, that's why I made the distinction "skaters who WON" and not "made the podium." And it's not for predicting anything; it's just interesting to see trends, whether it's inflation trends, increases in TES (with respect to value changes), etc. And I'm not "making stats say" anything; I'm just "saying" what happened.. The numbers are what they are. If, for example, Patrick fell 4 times and won at that particular competition, that's what happened. If Yuzu fell 5 times and made the podium at that particular competition, that's what happened (...and you are just saying what happened). If Javi had that particular success rate in major competitions last season for a 4S, that's what happened. As I said. It's just interesting to some people. If it's not your thing, just keep on scrolling...

If Maxim had made another major error in his FS at CoC, Hanyu would have likely won with 5 falls - technically 7 major errors if you count his SP where he tripled a quad and messed up his lutz with no combo. I suppose Maxim did him a favour.

Of course people continually bash Chan for winning once with 4 falls over both segments (when the silver medalist made errors himself), and make it seem like a recurring thing. Like Hanyu, Chan benefits from higher difficulty and higher grade of execution and being generally a superior skater to the field.

 

[MaxSwagg]

If Maxim had made another major error in his FS at CoC, Hanyu would have likely won with 5 falls - technically 7 major errors if you count his SP where he tripled a quad and messed up his lutz with no combo. I suppose Maxim did him a favour.

Of course people continually bash Chan for winning once with 4 falls over both segments (when the silver medalist made errors himself), and make it seem like a recurring thing. Like Hanyu, Chan benefits from higher difficulty and higher grade of execution and being generally a superior skater to the field.

Well, I compile data based on official results (i.e. what's in the protocol). In this sport, the protocols have to be the official results and information regarding those results (whether we agree with them or not). And maybe I'm misinterpreting, but I wasn't picking out any particular skater to bash or criticize. Based on the protocol information, this is just what the information is. If Yuzu wins with five falls and I defend that due to his high BV and/or GOE, then I will do the same with Patrick or any other skater that deserves it.

 

[4everchan]

the issue with your analysis is that you associate true data : ie number of falls, with data that is variable ie winning. that is why your stats are not as meaningful as let's say percentage for hanyu to land his 3A... you cannot associate subjective data (winning) with objective data and make it reliable... hence my comment about "one can make stats say anything" .....

Well, I compile data based on official results (i.e. what's in the protocol). In this sport, the protocols have to be the official results and information regarding those results (whether we agree with them or not). And maybe I'm misinterpreting, but I wasn't picking out any particular skater to bash or criticize. Based on the protocol information, this is just what the information is. If Yuzu wins with five falls and I defend that due to his high BV and/or GOE, then I will do the same with Patrick or any other skater that deserves it.

 

[mrrice]

Well, I compile data based on official results (i.e. what's in the protocol). In this sport, the protocols have to be the official results and information regarding those results (whether we agree with them or not). And maybe I'm misinterpreting, but I wasn't picking out any particular skater to bash or criticize. Based on the protocol information, this is just what the information is. If Yuzu wins with five falls and I defend that due to his high BV and/or GOE, then I will do the same with Patrick or any other skater that deserves it.

I know I'm late to this discussion however, as a judge you could easily justify Patrick Chan's numbers. He has better body line than any I've ever seen and I've been watching this sport for decades. I don't believe in arguing over skating as it takes the fun out of it. We fans are as different as the skaters we love. It's natural to love and defend your favorite as long as it's done politely.

By the way, with all these skaters coming back. WHERE'S EMAN!!!!!

 

[dasani]

Ahhhh! I hope won' go back to the overscoring discussion again >_<

4everchan you are right the statistic certainly doesn't predict the future. It does though, give us a glimpse of the strengths & weaknesses of the skaters. What I see out of the four guys, Patrick is pretty consistent on all jumps minus the 3A, Yuzu as well with his weakness being the 3F (I'm hoping his 3Lz issue last season is just a fluke) and 4S (but since he already has his 4T, the 4S stability issue is less a problem comparing to the rest of the field). Combined with high level spins/step sequence and good skating skills, there are reasons why both are at the top always.

Plus we've already had pages of discussion on "he's a true artist", "he really connects to the music", "he's really emoting during his performance"....which are more based on personal opinions, it's more interesting to balance it out with some stats too

As for Cup of China event, I sincerely hope from the bottom of my heart that such incident will not happen again. I will never forget that day watching the ESP feed, after the commercial break during the 6-min warm-up, the screen came back to an empty rink. Then they announced there has been a horrible crash, I can felt my heart almost popped out from my throat, really don't want others to experience the same....ever. And technically speaking, he never really "got on the podium"...poor boy totally missed out on the medal ceremony. Uhhhhh....and before anyone wants to ignite another lively discussion on whether he should have skated at the event or not, please kindly contribute to the wonderful Head injuries and Figure Skating thread, many have shared their POV regarding this matter.

Of course people continually bash Chan for winning once with 4 falls over both segments (when the silver medalist made errors himself), and make it seem like a recurring thing. Like Hanyu, Chan benefits from higher difficulty and higher grade of execution and being generally a superior skater to the field.

Certainly understand your frustration regarding the repeat mention of Patrick's 4 falls back in 2010 :yes: so perhaps maybe you can also try not to mention the 5 falls of Hanyu like it's a normality for him too? It could be me imagining things, but it sure feels like every other time you talk about Yuzu you have to mention "oh he still got a silver medal falling 5 times" Maybe I should start saving $1 every time I see that being mention, and very soon i'll be able to afford the VIP all event tickets for Boston Worlds!

 

[MaxSwagg]

...

I never said Patrick's numbers weren't justified. I wasn't even discussing anything about that. I just went through the data as it exists. Win, came in first, whatever. That's what happened. X skater had the designation "1" at the end of the competition so they won it, whether it was a great performance or an abysmal performance. Drama in the Mao/Tuk thread...well, it's being brought over here...

 

[4everchan]

COC was a disaster.. i still have the memories of watching the footage as well... everytime i see yuzu or han i freak out...

regarding stats... i think what you have provided us is very valuable... i was only questioning some other people's interpretation of stats... because then it becomes crazy... for instance... we all know that popping a jump is much more costly than falling on a quad... so that makes no sense at all to bring falls and winning together.... and the stats are only a factor of TES.. not CPS (which is not truly objective)... and winning needs both... so that's why i responded strongly to max... but he is used to my replies... we rarely agree

Ahhhh! I hope won' go back to the overscoring discussion again >_<

4everchan you are right the statistic certainly doesn't predict the future. It does though, give us a glimpse of the strengths & weaknesses of the skaters. What I see out of the four guys, Patrick is pretty consistent on all jumps minus the 3A, Yuzu as well with his weakness being the 3F (I'm hoping his 3Lz issue last season is just a fluke) and 4S (but since he already has his 4T, the 4S stability issue is less a problem comparing to the rest of the field). Combined with high level spins/step sequence and good skating skills, there are reasons why both are at the top always.

Plus we've already had pages of discussion on "he's a true artist", "he really connects to the music", "he's really emoting during his performance"....which are more based on personal opinions, it's more interesting to balance it out with some stats too

As for Cup of China event, I sincerely hope from the bottom of my heart that such incident will not happen again. I will never forget that day watching the ESP feed, after the commercial break during the 6-min warm-up, the screen came back to an empty rink. Then they announced there has been a horrible crash, I can felt my heart almost popped out from my throat, really don't want others to experience the same....ever. And technically speaking, he never really "got on the podium"...poor boy totally missed out on the medal ceremony. Uhhhhh....and before anyone wants to ignite another lively discussion on whether he should have skated at the event or not, please kindly contribute to the wonderful Head injuries and Figure Skating thread, many have shared their POV regarding this matter.



Certainly understand your frustration regarding the repeat mention of Patrick's 4 falls back in 2010 :yes: so perhaps maybe you can also try not to mention the 5 falls of Hanyu like it's a normality for him too? It could be me imagining things, but it sure feels like every other time you talk about Yuzu you have to mention "oh he still got a silver medal falling 5 times" Maybe I should start saving $1 every time I see that being mention, and very soon i'll be able to afford the VIP all event tickets for Boston Worlds!

 

[4everchan]

...

I never said Patrick's numbers weren't justified. I wasn't even discussing anything about that. I just went through the data as it exists. Win, came in first, whatever. That's what happened. X skater had the designation "1" at the end of the competition so they won it, whether it was a great performance or an abysmal performance. Drama in the Mao/Tuk thread...well, it's being brought over here...

brought in by you my dear with erroneous statistical analysis peace out :dance:

 

[Li'Kitsu]

so that makes no sense at all to bring falls and winning together....

Maybe not for you, but for others it's an interesting point, so don't sell your annoyance with this as a fact.

There was a lot of discussion the last season about people feeling that we had more gold medalists who got there with falls/or a higher number of falls. This is not related to specific skaters, but to developements in this sport in general. And MaxSwagg just posted that that's not true - and he could, because of all those stats where he looked at falls and wins together. Why would that not be something good? It doesn't always have to be about Chan specifically...

In that sense, thanks Max for posting

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Wow you are right! Just quickly checked through the protocol, 3A is definitely his best buddy at the battle field.

This has always given him the edge in the TES category:
The TES of his single 3A is worth at least the BV of a quad; the TES of his 3A combo is equivalent to a quad combo.

Yes, Hanyus 3As are pretty unreal, in all from consistency to quality to the scores they earn. And it's not just worlds! There are some similar numbers that also show this - I went through last years protocols of Hanyu, Fernandez and Ten and compiled their theoretical 'best season skate' by adding together the single best done elements from different competitions (so for Hanyu, I took his highest scoring 4S, then his highest scoring 4T, and so on). Here's their highest scoring elements ranked:

DTen 4T3T (LP, 16.69) > Hanyu 3A3S (LP, 16.66) > Hanyu 3A3T (LP, 16.15)
> Fernandez 4S2T (LP, 14.69)
> Fernandez 4S (SP, 13.36) > Hanyu 4S (LP, 13.07) > Hanyu 4T (SP AND LP, 13.01)

I'll stop here for now so I won't overdo it with the single numbers, but elements that scored 12+: DTens 4T, 3Lz3T and 3S; Fernandez' 4T and 3F3S and Hanyus 3A.

It's just as you said: aside from DTens 4T3T LP combo Hanyus 3A combos are the highest scoring elements between these 3 men throughout the whole season (the highest 3A scores were from GPF, not even worlds). And his single SP 3A shows up in the same point range as DTens and Fernandez' 4T - not just that Hanyus 3A can keep up with DTens and Fernandez quads from worlds, but even with their best ones from the entire season. Yuzu practically has 3 quads :shocked:

 

[Layback11]

brought in by you my dear with erroneous statistical analysis peace out :dance:

Whoa, no need to point fingers.

 

[4everchan]

goodness... one last time...

stats about more and more falls from top skaters.. YES... that is interesting and shows that more risk are taken... and that the sport is going through a development phase rather than a stable phase....

but "winning" is about ranking... it's about who else was in the competition.. it's about what competition it was (gp rather a real championship) it's about so many factors.... for instance yuzu would not have fallen 5 times if he didn't collide with han at CoC.... so if DATA is there... associating it with something like winning becomes subjective and it doesn't constitute appropriate mathematical objective analysis anymore. that's all i am saying...

even for your own claim about development of the sport... then you need to look at falls on quads or triple axels... i think that if someone constantly falls on their 3 loop.... it doesn't say much for sports development... if they fall on their 3 salchow... is it because they are working on the quad and getting confused... or is it because they cannot land the 3S regularly for other reasons? is it because it is coming from a jump sequence or is it because there were crazy steps before it? This is what i mean with making stats speak accordingly to whatever we want to.... saying "winning with most falls" is not statistics... it's just trivial... it doesn't constitute a valid objective approach to data... sorry if i am sounding like a broken record but maybe it's necessary that we are on the same page when it comes to statistics if we are going to discuss them...

Maybe not for you, but for others it's an interesting point, so don't sell your annoyance with this as a fact.

There was a lot of discussion the last season about people feeling that we had more gold medalists who got there with falls/or a higher number of falls. This is not related to specific skaters, but to developements in this sport in general. And MaxSwagg just posted that that's not true - and he could, because of all those stats where he looked at falls and wins together. Why would that not be something good? It doesn't always have to be about Chan specifically...

In that sense, thanks Max for posting