My very rambling & probably insignificant thoughts:
Interesting conversation. Also a bit convoluted. There's a difference between real problems & panic. (M&C are not a threat to the senior Russian teams right now. They are going to have to fight their way up the U.S. national ranks first).
1. Bobrova & Soloviev seem to have very realistic goals for this season. I really believe they are treating this year as a comeback season, and they realize they have something to contribute to the Russian team. They have looked very happy to me with their skates and achievements thus far this year. And rightly so. I saw them live at Skate Canada, and they were happy after their performances. And happy on the podium. They also acknowledged, in their recent interview, the added difficulty the Shibs have in their programs this season. B&S made the GPF, and that wasn't at all a given since they weren't seeded this season. Both the Skate America field and the TEB field would have been easier events. (CoR and CoC likely even tougher).
2. B&S are tackling intricate, challenging programs; and at least at Skate Canada (their first international competition back on the scene), their speed and flow were suffering. Particularly in the footwork sequences. They were somewhat scratchy and hesitant during their FD performance, and the second half of their SD to the march is halting. (I think they could fix this, should they desire, by re-working this portion of their SD before Europeans). They also had some trouble on the twizzles in practice. But they pulled through and skated clean in the competition. SC was a very intense GP competition for all three of the top teams there. B&S were coming off an injured season and a tough year before that. The Shibs and W&P were arriving with seriously revamped material after rough Challenger debuts. All of these teams knew they were up against two World medal-winning teams (the deepest GP event I have ever attended). And yet every one of these three teams stepped up to the plate and delivered. All of this in W&P’s backyard. (The Shibs, BTW, were 100% on the attack at SC. I have never seen them look so strong or fight so hard. I don’t think it’s a stretch to assume they weren’t as strong in their free at the GPF, with Alex’s illness. They didn’t even attempt to warm up there).
3. U.S. ice dance is deep right now. This has been coming for a long time. (In 2009, U.S. junior teams won 7 of 9 events on the JGP circuit. That generation is now at the top of the U.S. senior field). Overreacting because a team loses a dance to any one of these top three American teams is folly. Essentially, the top three U.S. dance teams include a 2008 Junior World gold medalist, a 2009 Junior World gold medalist, the 2009 Junior World silver medalists, and a 2007 JGPF gold medalist & 2009 JGPF silver medalist. Deep. Deep. Deep. All these athletes came up quite close together. They have been battling one another their entire careers. To panic because one of these teams is ranked #3 is ludicrous. G&P finished sixth at Worlds, and they were defeated by Hubbell & Donahue in the SD at Skate Canada last season. Bobrova & Soloviev, in a comeback season, are doing fine.
(Don’t get me wrong, the depth of U.S. dance is a real problem for Russia. But there is no reason right now to believe that losing to U.S. #3 is worse than losing to #2 from another country).
4. Of course the Russian Fed would like B&S to be defeating the teams above them. Russia wants three spots at Worlds next season. They have three teams scoring in the top ten on the GP, so it’s a very legit desire. But in order to get those three spots, Russian teams have to score higher than 7 & 8 at Worlds. They not only need one team to defeat H&D. They need two. But that doesn't mean B&S aren't the top Russian team, much less one of the top two Russian teams. Ah, the conundrum! Now it’s possible S&K or I&Z could place higher. There simply isn’t the evidence yet to back up that theory. And, to my knowledge, neither of these teams has more than two clean competitions in a row on their resume yet. But Ilinykh & Katsalapov were the most competitive Russian junior team of their generation. And realistically, they are the team that pushed B&S down in the ranks. When I&K split, they forfeited time and experience together. It's going to take a while to build back up. They chose this path. They have only themselves to blame if they wind up sitting out a couple seasons.
5. I think all these countries need to get over the hang up about “being passed.” Every single team at the top last season was “passed” by P&C. And there is a very decent chance that P&C themselves will be “passed” this season. The Shibs, Cappellini & Lanotte, Bobrova & Soloviev, Chock & Bates, Weaver & Poje, and even Hubbell & Donahue have all been passed by teams other than P&C over the course of the last several seasons as well. Guess what? This season, the Shibs defeated Bobrova & Soloviev. Chock & Bates defeated Cappellini & Lanotte. Cappellini & Lanotte defeated Chock & Bates and the Shibs. Weaver & Poje defeated Chock and Bates. Hubbell & Donahue defeated Stepanova & Bukin. All these teams re-passed someone who passed them. Welcome to the modern era. A decade in which teams can lose placements, and it does not mean the end of their careers!
I have no idea who will win Russian nationals. I would like to see it be the team that steps up and has the two greatest skates. That could be any one of these three teams. But when both Nationals & Europeans are done, I have a lot of faith that B&S will be on that World team.
when I read about V/M returning on the last page
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