Grand Prix 2016-17 News/Speculation

[sarama]

I thought that Junior World champions are guaranteed only one GP spot??
But I can't find the ISU language for that either ....

I'm on mobile so I can't copy/paste, anyway http://static.isu.org/media/209550/gp-general-announcement-2015_16_final.pdf this is last year's criteria and they are vague... they say JWC medallists will be taken into account for the GP spots (don't mention how many), but honestly I can't remember any JWC champions not getting two GPs recently

 

[ice coverage]

I'm on mobile so I can't copy/paste, anyway http://static.isu.org/media/209550/gp-general-announcement-2015_16_final.pdf this is last year's criteria and they are vague... they say JWC medallists will be taken into account for the GP spots (don't mention how many), but honestly I can't remember any JWC champions not getting two GPs recently

Thx, I already had looked back at last season's GP announcement earlier today, so I knew that was not the source that I remembered.

My not-so-reliable memory seems to recall ISU language about one guaranteed slot for Junior World champions ... but it either was in another ISU document or was a figment of my imagination.

---

You may have been thinking of this one: http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2015/08/07/141718768/the-inside-edge-dance-duo-aims-for-mature-look where she says: "We're still pretty young, so we have time," McNamara said. "The jump from junior to senior is the biggest jump you can make in skating. We have time to grow and develop as juniors, so we can get as much experience as possible before making that jump."

However, that article is from last summer (August), so there is a chance they either have changed their mind or that she wasn't speaking wholly literally about the 'as much experience as possible' and was instead just explaining why they stayed junior this year. I can't find anything more recent or more definite than this. ...

Thx for the IN link re Lorraine/Quinn .... at this point, I'm not sure whether the quote there is what I had been posting about earlier ... but it does make me feel slightly less ridiculous.

 

[sarama]

My not-so-reliable memory seems to recall ISU language about one guaranteed slot for Junior World champions ... but it either was in another ISU document or was a figment of my imagination.

I have the feeling that there is some more detailed regulation somewhere as well, but I can't figure out where it could be hidden

 

[chuckm]

McNAMARA / CARPENTER are 21st on the 15/16 ISU WR and #14 on the SB List in addition to being JW and JPF Champs. Their chances of getting two events are excellent.

LOBODA / DROZD are the same age as McN/C and are probably hoping the US skaters will move up so the Russians can have a shot at the JW championship. OTOH, not many JWCs have successfully defended their titles---among those who didn't are YuNa Kim and Caroline Zhang. It's more usual for a JWC to move up than to try to repeat as JWC.

 

[sc8]

Men analysis:


We have 72 spots, and here's who could get them.

Top 12 at Worlds get 2, so that's 24 slots:

1. Fernandez
2. Hanyu
3. Jin
4. Kolyada
5. Chan
6. Rippon
7. Uno
8. Aaron
9. Brezina
10. Hochstein
11. Ten
12. Rhigini

Top 24 SB List:

7. Yan (also 18 WS, will probably get 2)
8. Mura (also 9 WS, will probably get 2)
12. Murakami (also 17 WS, will probably get 2)
13. Pitkeev (also 21 WS, will probably get 2)
14. Miner (also 29 WS, still will probably get 2. Unless he's retiring, which he probably isn't.)
15. Dmitrev (also 62 WS, probably will get 1 unless he gets a host pick.)
16. Voronov (also 4 WS, will probably get 2. Unless he's retiring, which he probably isn't.)
17. Bychenko (also 22 WS, will probably get 2)
18. Balde (also 49 WS, probably will get 1 unless he gets a host pick.)
19. Kovtun (also 6 WS, will probably get 2)
21. Brown (also 7 WS, will probably get 2)
22. Nguyen (also 14 WS, will probably get 2)

Assuming all of these guys get 2 (due to host picks and other things) and none of them retire, that's another 24 slots taken up, leaving us with 24 more to fill.

Top 24 WS List:

15. Ge (also 38 SB, might get 2.)
16. Petrov (also 33 SB, might get 2.)
19. Menshov (also 29 SB, so higher chance of getting 2 than the 2 above him. Unless he's retiring.)
20. Samohin (also 26 SB, probably will get 2)
23. Samarin (also 35 SB, might get 2. Unless he's staying junior.)

Assuming all these guys get 2, that's another 10 slots filled, leaving us with 14 to fill.

The next people on the SB list:

25. Chen (also 37 WS, probably getting 2)
28. Tanaka (also 25 WS, probably getting 2)
30. Hendrix (also 44 WS, might get 2 but lower chance than the 2 above him.)
31. Yamamoto (also 41 WS, probably getting 2 if Japan host-picks him.)
32. Kvitelashvili (also 52 WS, probably getting 1 unless he's a host pick)
34. Aliev (also 35 WS, probably getting 2)
36. Nadeau (also 55 WS, probably getting 1 unless he's a host pick.)
37. Vasiljevs (also 32 WS, probably getting 2 but if all 7 guys above him get 2, he's locked out.)
39. Shulepov (also 107 WS, probably getting 1 but could be locked out.)
40. Gorshkov (also 67 WS, probably getting 1 but could be locked out.)

So, that's that, but I might be over-optimistic about some guys getting 2 slots.

Host picks:

China: He Zhang, or maybe no one?

France: Chafik Besseghier, Kevin Aymoz, might not use the third one?

And that is that.

This was fun. I might do this for pairs if tulosai doesn't.

I sure hope Joshua Farris is able to come back strong and that he gets Skate America host pick.

 

[Mrs. P]

GP assignments pre-announcement thread

Per this tweet from ISU Judge David Molina:

The ISU Sr Grand Prix assignments of #figureskating 2016/17 will be decided at GP selection meeting on June 29th & 30th in NYC

I know people here did a list of who will get spots but I can't find it. Please help me out and I'll update this post.

About 56 days to go.

 

[karne]

*whines* Whyyyyyyyy? It's so long awayyyyyyyyyyy!

I hope Brendan gets an assignment again!

 

[randomfan]

I know people here did a list of who will get spots but I can't find it. Please help me out and I'll update this post.

About 56 days to go.

I think it's this one.
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...ix-2016-7-News-Speculation-Comments&styleid=3

And ugh, 56 days?! Guess that means nearly two months of me being nervous.

 

[Mrs. P]

I think it's this one.
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...ix-2016-7-News-Speculation-Comments&styleid=3

And ugh, 56 days?! Guess that means nearly two months of me being nervous.

Thank you! The threads have been merged.

 

[cathlen]

Ice Dance Analysis

48 spots are available.


Teams Guaranteed 1 spot because of their place on the Seasons Best List:
-9 teams, but some will definitely get 2 spots (at least if there is any justice/fair play) as I noted below, so by my count between 12 and 14 spots will actually be taken by these 9 teams depending on what happens to Bobrova and Soloviev
-a few other teams would be guaranteed 1 but are still junior eligible and to my current knowledge intend to stay in juniors

13. Ilinykh/Zhiganshin (RUS) (7th SB list, will get 2)
14. Bobrova/Soloviev (RUS) (8th SB list, obviously may very probably not get a spot depending on drug outcome, if they do get a spot will get 2)
15. Testa/Csolley (SVK) (17th SB list, will get 2)
16. Hawayek/Baker (USA) (19th SB list, will get 2)
17. Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen (DEN) (20th SB list, will get 2)
18. Lauriault/LeGac (FRA) (21 SB list)
19. Agafonova/Ucar (TUR) (22 SB list)
20. Popova/Vlasenko (RUS) (23 SB list)
21. Kaliszek/Spodirev (POL) (24 SB list)

Teams Guaranteed 1 Spot because of their spot on the World overall Standings List
-5 teams, but 6 spots will probably be taken if you account for who will probably also get 2

22. Paul/Islam (will probably get 2, 26th on SB list)
23. Monko/Khaliavin
24. Kim/ Minov
25. Wang/Liu
26. Yanovskaya/Mozgov

I guess we can scratch Popova/Vlasenko & Yanovskaya/Mozgov from teams that have guaranteed spots at GP. Also, as someone noticed, in Ice Dance & Pairs only top 10 teams has guaranteed 2 spots at GP, not 12. That means there are few more spots open in both analisys But with B/S competing, but not participating at Worlds & lack of 2 guaranteed spots for them, it will be tough.

 

[Snow63]

I guess we can scratch Popova/Vlasenko & Yanovskaya/Mozgov from teams that have guaranteed spots at GP. Also, as someone noticed, in Ice Dance & Pairs only top 10 teams has guaranteed 2 spots at GP, not 12. That means there are few more spots open in both analisys But with B/S competing, but not participating at Worlds & lack of 2 guaranteed spots for them, it will be tough.

Bobrova/Soloviev, Ilinykh/Zhiganshin and Stepanova/Bukin have only one guaranteed spot each. Which means they all probably will compete at Rostelecom Cup. Which means Sinitsina/Katsalapov will have to skate somewhere else. But the Fed can actually pull an upset and give one spot to Zahorski/Guerreiro. That will be fun!

 

[cathlen]

Bobrova/Soloviev, Ilinykh/Zhiganshin and Stepanova/Bukin have only one guaranteed spot each. Which means they all probably will compete at Rostelecom Cup. Which means Sinitsina/Katsalapov will have to skate somewhere else. But the Fed can actually pull an upset and give one spot to Zahorski/Guerreiro. That will be fun!

I just hope that at least one other federation will invite one of the Russian couple (apart of S/K) for 2nd GP. But yes, it's going to be fun

 

[cheerknithanson]

ISU must love torturing us....by the time the GP assignments are announced, I'll be old enough to legally drink in the USA. Which is a scary though to be honest.

 

[uhh]

I'm on mobile so I can't copy/paste, anyway http://static.isu.org/media/209550/gp-general-announcement-2015_16_final.pdf this is last year's criteria and they are vague... they say JWC medallists will be taken into account for the GP spots (don't mention how many), but honestly I can't remember any JWC champions not getting two GPs recently

Stepanova/Bukin only had one in 2013/14.

 

[ice coverage]

ISU must love torturing us....by the time the GP assignments are announced, I'll be old enough to legally drink in the USA. Which is a scary though to be honest.

Let's not forget that the suspense/torture for us is nothing compared to what the skaters themselves must be feeling. (That said, I too am mighty curious .)

An early Happy Birthday to you, CKH. (I know that you will not abuse your new privilege.)

*whines* Whyyyyyyyy? It's so long awayyyyyyyyyyy!

I hope Brendan gets an assignment again!

Fingers crossed for Brendan :yay:.

 

[sarama]

Stepanova/Bukin only had one in 2013/14.

I totally didn't remember that...
And now that I think about it's probably because they kind of bombed so likely my mind tried to forget

 

[tulosai]

All this waiting is very stressful...

 

[WeakAnkles]

I totally didn't remember that...
And now that I think about it's probably because they kind of bombed so likely my mind tried to forget

"Repression is a gift from heaven and we must honor it as such." -- Christopher Durang

 

[Ice Dance]

I guess we can scratch Popova/Vlasenko & Yanovskaya/Mozgov from teams that have guaranteed spots at GP.

Yanovskaya & Mozgov didn't have any guaranteed spots to scratch. (Nor did Monko & Khaliavin. And Paul & Islam have no guaranteed spots either). See chuck's updated list on page 5. It matches the list I've seen on FSU so I'm guessing 2 out of 3 means that list is correct. Paradis & Ouellette and Cannuscio & McManus made the lists instead.

The U.S. has four dance teams with one guaranteed placement. Russia likewise (after crossing off Popova & Vlasenko). France has one. China has one. Canada has one. (Not counting Virtue & Moir). That's eleven teams with only one guaranteed spot who have a host country on the GP. Loboda & Drozd are said to be staying junior. I think there's a good chance the Parsons will too. But that's still nine teams from host countries with only one guaranteed spot. If someone figures out how all those countries are going to be able to label their spots TBA and still get their teams to fit into 2-5 open places on the GP, be sure & let me know.

 

[cathlen]

Yanovskaya & Mozgov didn't have any guaranteed spots to scratch. (Nor did Monko & Khaliavin. And Paul & Islam have no guaranteed spots either). See chuck's updated list on page 5. It matches the list I've seen on FSU so I'm guessing 2 out of 3 means that list is correct. Paradis & Ouellette and Cannuscio & McManus made the lists instead.

Well, again, why do all assume that grad prix assignemnts are based on updated rankings? The fact that the same list is posted on FSU proves nothing. It may be the same user or someone might have just copied it as well.

From last season ISU announcement:

Skaters/
Couples with an ISU World Standing placement of 1 –24 (after season 2014/15) and Skaters/Couples with seasonal best scores in the top 24 (for season 2014/15) who do not hold an ISU World Standing placement of 1 –24 will be guaranteed one (1) event if they do not otherwise meet the criteria listed in paragraphs

I think this rather imply they choose GP assignments before updating rankings for next season, not after. And it also makes more sense for me as new season officialy starts on 1st July, so the scores from 2013/2014 will be removed no sooner that 1st July. And GP asingments are announced always before that date. last year we had assignments on July 15th.