Grand Prix 2016-17 News/Speculation

[cathlen]

So according to the list by chuckm there are
1. 39 spots guaranateed for Men (43 if Aliev, Yamamoto, Chen & Samarin will go senior) out of 72
2. 41 spots guaranteed for Ladies (45 if Higuchi, Mihara go senior and Carolina Kostner return) out of 72
3. 34 spots guaranteed for Pairs (IIRC both Russian junior pairs stay junior) out of 48
4. 37 spots guaranteed for Ice Dance (39 if McNamara/Carpenter and Parsons go senior, Loboda/Drozd stay junior) out of 48

I only counted what's guaranteed basen on places in WC, ranking and SB and come back spots. A lots of skaters like Junior World Champions will probably get two spots instead of one. I think the situation is the toughest in Ice Dance. There will be fight over the spots for sure, many teams would like second spot & we can't forget that there will be some host picks like Muramoto/Reed in NHK. I'm really curious how it will turn out.

 

[Ice Dance]

So according to the list by chuckm there are
4. 37 spots guaranteed for Ice Dance (39 if McNamara/Carpenter and Parsons go senior, Loboda/Drozd stay junior) out of 48

Yes, then Muramoto & Reed and the second Japanese dance team. Two more Chinese host teams. And Virtue & Moir. (They will take at least one. They have the right to take two). And if France wishes, they could use their third spot as well (either on Alessandrini & Souquet, who just squeaked into the FD at Europeans, or Abachkina & Thauron, who could move up out of juniors & attend Worlds this season but have the option of staying juniors--which I think is likely). That would get you . . . up to 46 dance spots already gone. I think there's a good chance the Parsons stay junior and that France trades away their third spot. That leaves you with 44. And I've read that V&M may be planning to do only one event and then possibly come in off the alternates list. (Seems strange, but I suppose it would allow them to ease in & pick their battles). That would put the numbers at 43. If M&C don't go senior, then 42. The other spots were all taken this season.

 

[cathlen]

And Virtue & Moir. (They will take at least one. They have the right to take two).

I actually counted V/M in guaranteed spots. For two of them
Altough I think it would be better for M/C to go senior now rather than in Olympic season, they seem hesitant in their interviews and don't declare anything. Same with Parsons, but it may be tough as US Ice Dance has its peak season (2 teams on podium and three i top6! ), I don't know if they will be able to compete with any of the top3 teams and it may seem more reasonable to stay junior. But not in a long term I think The Fed that will for sure use all their host picks is Russia, as there is only one team who has 2 spots guaranteed. And there are so little spots left I'm not sure how much other Feds will be willing to invite the other teams for second GP. But I'm kind of weirdly calm that there will be some changes in line ups after GP announcement anyway, though maybe not to the extent of this season.

 

[Ice Dance]

I actually counted V/M in guaranteed spots. For two of them
But I'm kind of weirdly calm that there will be some changes in line ups after GP announcement anyway, though maybe not to the extent of this season.

This season, there were four dance replacements following the GP announcement:

France opened up it's TBA spot. I already included that as a likely open spot in my list. (This spot was filled twice but it was only one opening).
Hurtado & Diaz dropped their place at Cup of Russia. (They were replaced by a low level team that did not qualify for any GP list last June).
Papadakis & Cizeron dropped their spot at NHK. They were replaced by Coomes & Buckland. (The Brits were the most competitive team on the GP alternates list, and they very nearly didn't get in).
Paul & Islam dropped their place at NHK. (It was filled by a team--Cannuscio & McManus--that did not qualify for any GP list last June).

Four other dance spots opened up during the GP, but none of them were filled due to mid-event withdrawals and lack of advanced notice.

Essentially, if the post GP assignment changes in the line up remain exactly the same as last season, then there would be one more spot than I already mentioned open for a high-level competitive team already on the GP list (or to V&M if they choose that route).

 

[chuckm]

Other hosts HAVE to invite teams other than their own, as they are allowed to have only three of their own teams at a dance event. There will be lots of bargaining and bartering amongst the hosts before the selection along the lines of I'll take A/B if you take C/D.

 

[cathlen]

Thanks to GS article, we know that Duskova/Bidar plan to compete in Junior Grand Prix, so one more spot left in Pairs. That means 15 spots open for teams.

 

[chuckm]

The ISU has updated the World Standings, removing the old data. So the GP selection will be based on the updated WS.

 

[ice coverage]

If they move to seniors they're guaranteed 2, actually, as JW champs ...

... I thought that Junior World champions are guaranteed only one GP spot??
But I can't find the ISU language for that either ....

.... Actually now reading over the ISU doc I am not even sure they are guaranteed one spot based on their placement at Junior Worlds but they'd be guaranteed one based on their seasons' best score ...

I have the feeling that there is some more detailed regulation somewhere as well, but I can't figure out where it could be hidden

Finally found the official ISU language that I had in mind:

... Medalists from the ISU World Junior Figure Skating Championships and the ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final gold medalists are guaranteed one spot ....​

Source:

ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating - Preview
21 Oct 2015
http://www.isu.org/en/single-and-pair-skating-and-ice-dance/news/2015/10/gp-preview​

Odd that the Announcement for the Grand Prix Series does not include the same language.

 

[chuckm]

This season, Cannuscio/McManus for the first time are guaranteed one event as they are #23 on WS. OTOH, Paul/Islam have no guarantees as they are not top 24 in either WS or SB. But their #26 on SB does give them a shot as a sub.

 

[cheerknithanson]

An early Happy Birthday to you, CKH. (I know that you will not abuse your new privilege.)

Just saw this part. And TRUST me. I'm NOT going to abuse it. Especially since I won't be able to drink beer due to that my tongue is hypersensitive to carbonation.

 

[AlexRus]

Ladies.
1. Top12 Worlds
1 Evgenia MEDVEDEVA RUS
2 Ashley WAGNER USA
3 Anna POGORILAYA RUS
4 Gracie GOLD USA
5 Satoko MIYAHARA JPN
6 Elena RADIONOVA RUS
7 Mao ASADA JPN
8 Rika HONGO JPN
9 Gabrielle DALEMAN CAN
10 Mirai NAGASU USA
11 Zijun LI CHN
12 Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA KAZ

24 spots.

2. Top24 WS not including (1)
3 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS 3322
9 Roberta RODEGHIERO ITA 2254
10 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN 2243
11 Angelina KUCHVALSKA LAT 2228
15 Maria SOTSKOVA RUS 1898
16 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS 1736
17 Karen CHEN USA 1717
17 Nicole RAJICOVA SVK 1717
19 Polina EDMUNDS USA 1664
20 Alena LEONOVA RUS 1661
21 Joshi HELGESSON SWE 1654
22 So Youn PARK KOR 1652
23 Yuka NAGAI JPN 1608
24 Alaine CHARTRAND CAN 1570

14 spots.

3. Top24 SB not including (1) and (2)
7 203.89 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS
19 183.73 Wakaba HIGUCHI JPN
22 183.12 Courtney HICKS USA
23 182.05 Mai MIHARA JPN
24 179.41 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN

5 spots.

43 spots total.

List of SB of Ladies who are not in Top12 Worlds and age eligible
* means one spot by top24 WS or SB.
1.* 7 203.89 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS
2.* 8 201.33 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS
3.* 15 188.72 Maria SOTSKOVA RUS
4.* 19 183.73 Wakaba HIGUCHI JPN
5.* 21 183.20 Polina EDMUNDS USA
6.* 22 183.12 Courtney HICKS USA
7.* 23 182.05 Mai MIHARA JPN
8.* 24 179.41 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN
9. 25 178.98 Yura MATSUDA JPN
10.* 26 178.92 So Youn PARK KOR
11. 27 177.21 Maria ARTEMIEVA RUS
12.* 28 176.99 Angelina KUCHVALSKA LAT
13. 29 176.41 Serafima SAKHANOVICH RUS
14. 30 176.30 Vivian LE USA (JGP?)
15.* 31 175.93 Karen CHEN USA
16.* 32 175.12 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN
17. 33 173.71 Da Bin CHOI KOR
18.* 34 173.42 Alaine CHARTRAND CAN
19.* 35 173.24 Alena LEONOVA RUS
20.* 36 173.05 Nicole RAJICOVA SVK
21.* 37 172.92 Yuka NAGAI JPN
22.* 38 172.33 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS
23. 39 171.72 Tyler PIERCE USA
24. 40 170.95 Kaori SAKAMOTO JPN (JGP?)
25.* 41 170.76 Roberta RODEGHIERO ITA
26. 42 170.70 Na Hyun KIM KOR
27. 43 166.80 Angela WANG USA
28. 45 166.55 Riona KATO JPN
29.* 46 164.28 Joshi HELGESSON SWE
30. 47 164.27 Isabelle OLSSON SWE
31. 48 163.19 Mariko KIHARA JPN
32. 49 162.68 Anastasia GALUSTYAN ARM
33. 50 162.25 Brynne MCISAAC USA (JGP?)
34. 51 161.89 Rin NITAYA JPN
35. 52 161.23 Mae Berenice MEITE FRA
36. 53 160.94 Mariah BELL USA
37. 54 160.64 Nathalie WEINZIERL GER
38. 55 159.96 Amber GLENN USA

I believe about Top20 of this list will have spots at initial assignment.
Two spots with (*), one if no.

 

[StitchMonkey]

Just saw this part. And TRUST me. I'm NOT going to abuse it. Especially since I won't be able to drink beer due to that my tongue is hypersensitive to carbonation.

I predict screwdrivers (vodka and orange juice...you can control the ratio however you like) will be your friend. :agree:

 

[silverlake22]

I'm worried about Nathan Chen having to stay on the JGP another season because of his poorly timed injury, he missed gaining WS points and having a chance to improve his SB score and as a result he isn't in the top 24 on either list

And since he wasn't at Junior Worlds or Senior Worlds, he can't secure any GP events that way either. Given he is WS 42 and 25 SB , there's a good chance he can get 1 GP invite, but knowing the USFS, I wouldn't be surprised if Chen was passed over for a SA host pick for someone like Dornbush (WS 35, 45 SB ), Dolensky (way down on WS, 44 SB), or Josh Farris if he's healthy/continuing (WS 75, no SB) since none of them have any GP assignments secured. Ross Miner has 1 spot secured due to his SB 14, so I don't think he'd be given the host spot over Nathan, but one of the others with no GPs could.

If Chen wants to make it to the 2018 Olympics, he really needs to be competing on the senior GP this upcoming season. It would be a bummer if he winds up on the JGP again after the great season he had (up until the poorly timed injury). Le sigh.

 

[gsyzf]

I'm worried about Nathan Chen having to stay on the JGP another season because of his poorly timed injury, he missed gaining WS points and having a chance to improve his SB score and as a result he isn't in the top 24 on either list

And since he wasn't at Junior Worlds or Senior Worlds, he can't secure any GP events that way either. Given he is WS 42 and 25 SB , there's a good chance he can get 1 GP invite, but knowing the USFS, I wouldn't be surprised if Chen was passed over for a SA host pick for someone like Dornbush (WS 35, 45 SB ), Dolensky (way down on WS, 44 SB), or Josh Farris if he's healthy/continuing (WS 75, no SB) since none of them have any GP assignments secured. Ross Miner has 1 spot secured due to his SB 14, so I don't think he'd be given the host spot over Nathan, but one of the others with no GPs could.

If Chen wants to make it to the 2018 Olympics, he really needs to be competing on the senior GP this upcoming season. It would be a bummer if he winds up on the JGP again after the great season he had (up until the poorly timed injury). Le sigh.

Nathan is the JGPF gold medalist this season. I believe he is guaranteed one GP. I hope he can get the host pick if he doesn't get another GP invite. He is the national bronze medalist. Karen Chen got the host pick spot this season after getting bronze at national last year.

 

[ice coverage]

Nathan is the JGPF gold medalist this season. I believe he is guaranteed one GP. ...

:agree: Yes, this rule has been in effect in previous years. The ISU link saying so for last season is in post #128 above.

http://goldenskate.com/forum/showth...-Speculation&p=1435172&viewfull=1#post1435172​

 

[Jammers]

No way is Nathan is staying yet another year in Juniors. He made the World team why would he take a step backwards? It's time for both Nathan and M/C in ice dance to leave Juniors for good.

 

[Ice Dance]

No way is Nathan is staying yet another year in Juniors. He made the World team why would he take a step backwards? It's time for both Nathan and M/C in ice dance to leave Juniors for good.

A. Nathan needs to be healthy & have training time in order to compete in anything early in the season.
B. If he is, I assume he'll do the Senior GP.
C. Junior Worlds, though, may depend on whether he makes the senior team. There are now only two spots. If he doesn't make the senior team, I can see him going to Junior Worlds because he missed out on it this season.

 

[karne]

A. Nathan needs to be healthy & have training time in order to compete in anything early in the season.
B. If he is, I assume he'll do the Senior GP.
C. Junior Worlds, though, may depend on whether he makes the senior team. There are now only two spots. If he doesn't make the senior team, I can see him going to Junior Worlds because he missed out on it this season.

Agreed. And why not? He'll still be age-eligible. It'll boost his ranking and probably his confidence.

The men at US Nationals next year is going to be a bloodbath. I'm already tearing up just thinking about it.

 

[Skater Boy]

So we probably will not or cannot see Virtue and Moir in the GP Final no matter what. I wonder if we will see Liza T, Julia L., adelina with two GP and will we see poor Alena Leonova at all or is she done?

 

[Ice Dance]

So we probably will not or cannot see Virtue and Moir in the GP Final no matter what.

I believe it's their call. They can take the comeback option and do two GP's if they wish. I've just read on a discussion thread that they may not be planning to do so. I had also read that they might compete in an early Challenger and try to make it onto the GP as an alternate team. Obviously, they have the credentials to do that; but 3 out of 5 other GP countries have their own athletes trying to qualify for the Final so V&M might not be a likely late addition unless an opening arises at Cup of China or NHK. But perhaps that is what V&M want? With the comeback option, they would not have a say in where they compete. They could very likely face World and/or Olympic medalists on those athletes' home turf. I really don't see this as being an issue. We saw this season that early losses were not held against teams later in the season--much less losses in another team's backyard. But I can't think of any other logic behind the decision. After all, Skate Canada is an early event. If V&M are planning to compete there, then one would think they would be ready to compete a second GP. Perhaps, though, the decision really hadn't/hasn't been made yet. Ultimately, though, I believe competing once vs. twice on the GP is their decision.