Olympic Team Competition Predictions

[Ice Dance]

Obtaining Czech citizenship isn't easy (speaking from experience here). You need to reside in the country for a certain period time (five years me thinks) and pass language test (and you don't learn Czech in a year - again, speaking from experience). Although there are legal exceptions to this requirement, they aren't easy to get. I doubt that being a lower-tier dance team (no offence) helps tbh.

Thank you. Yes, Mansour & Ceska are just fighting to qualify for the top 24 so I'd imagine a special exception would not be that likely.

I also imagine Australia's competitive junior pair isn't likely to have citizenship either (correct?), but the points they earn could make a big difference for the team qualifying. The other two Australian pairs on the SB list are ranked #74 & #75 out of 75 pairs teams on the SB list. (But at least they are on the list, which the third Japanese pair is not).

 

[ancientpeas]

I'm going to say:
Gold-Russia (2 good pairs, 2 excellent Ladies, S/B and Kolyada are going to be hard to beat)
Silver-Canada (If Patrick and Katelyn skate really, really well I think we could upset the Russians but.. my gut says Russia)
Bronze: China (My only question with the Chinese is their IDers. At cup of China we saw several quite respectable ID teams but they maybe too unseasoned. My guess will be that by 2022 China will be the team to beat)

Then I'd say: U.S.A., Japan, France, Israel, Germany (might be higher if S/M compete), Ukraine, GB, South Korea and Australia. It's weird to me that the Japanese and French have opposite problems (one has great singles and one has great pairs/dance). I think it will be interesting to see what happens about who gets to go because I think that will be more competitive than the actual medals.

I would love to see the Australians make it.

 

[SnowWhite]

Bronze: China (My only question with the Chinese is their IDers. At cup of China we saw several quite respectable ID teams but they maybe too unseasoned. My guess will be that by 2022 China will be the team to beat)

I would consider China beating the US an upset.

For men, China's main guy is Boyang Jin (is that the right order? I always see it both ways) and the US has Nathan Chen, which seems pretty even to me.
For pairs, China clearly has the advantage but the US is also clearly way stronger on ice dance and it's probably a bigger difference. The US's top pair is 9th on the SB list and China's top ID team is 62nd.
As for ladies, I'll be honest I'm not very familiar with the Chinese women, but I looked at the SB lists from the past two years and despite their struggles this season, the US is clearly stronger there.

Now I haven't sat down and worked out all the placings, but I think the US is likely to beat China, though anything can happen on the day of course.

 

[ancientpeas]

I would consider China beating the US an upset.

For men, China's main guy is Boyang Jin (is that the right order? I always see it both ways) and the US has Nathan Chen, which seems pretty even to me.
For pairs, China clearly has the advantage but the US is also clearly way stronger on ice dance and it's probably a bigger difference. The US's top pair is 9th on the SB list and China's top ID team is 62nd.
As for ladies, I'll be honest I'm not very familiar with the Chinese women, but I looked at the SB lists from the past two years and despite their struggles this season, the US is clearly stronger there.

Now I haven't sat down and worked out all the placings, but I think the US is likely to beat China, though anything can happen on the day of course.

I know it's a bit of a risky call but I am still going with the Chinese here. My problem with the U.S. singles is that they could be great, spectacular even or it could be a bit of a mess. If we are talking Adam, Nathan or Jason and Ashley and Gracie it could put them close to silver or it could leave them quite low down. I'd say the bronze medal is way closer fight than the silver-gold which I'd say right now it Russia and Canada's to lose.

 

[karne]

I also imagine Australia's competitive junior pair isn't likely to have citizenship either (correct?),

Incorrect!

The AOC's immigration lawyers are all over this. The process has already started to get her recognised on an Outstanding Talent Visa, which would then fast-track her citizenship process. Given they have medals and HISTORY to show for it, Katia should get her citizenship in time.

 

[Ice Dance]

I know it's a bit of a risky call but I am still going with the Chinese here.

It's a bit riskier than you may think.

I just ran some SB numbers (putting them into rankings this time) and China came out 3 points behind France, missing the day 2 qualification cut. Yikes! (Sui & Han would likely make a difference, but they'd have to win the pairs short to make up the 3 points and then still a tie. And China opted not to compete Pang & Tong in the short at the last Olympics).

Anyway, whatever happens will be interesting.

 

[gravy]

I know that for me a term like meltdown in this context makes me think of someone really underachieving and performing way worse than expected. For example, if a skater who tends to fall a lot (not talking abt Kaetlyn rn) has a couple of falls, I might call it a bad performance, but probably wouldn't call it a meltdown since it isn't that unexpected. Now I wasn't following ladies as closely at the time, but my impression is that if someone said Kaetlyn would have a tenth place free skate before Worlds, people wouldn't have called that a meltdown placing since it would be more or less in line with expectations. I mean, she had just placed seventh at Four Continents and Worlds also had European skaters. And her FS at Worlds was higher than at FC.She was certainly capable of skating better and compared to her short, her long was disappointing because she had put herself in such great position. But as Osmond4gold has said, her overall placing wasn't a disappoint given her place in figure skating at the time. So that's why I personally wouldn't use the world meltdown. I'm not even convinced it was that bad a skate for her looking at the scores she'd received for it that season. I could see it being a bad skate compared to the top ladies.

I take meltdown to mean "had multiple big mistakes."

Laetitia Hubert and Carolina Kostner had TRUE meltdowns. Kaetlyn Osmond at 17, in her first Worlds and finishing 8th, with a personal best in the process, in arguably the best women's field ever = exceeding expectations!

Perhaps English is not your first language as the word meltdown is considered a catastrophic event, which is far from what transpired.

My English is fine. You're just oversensitive.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

That's a pretty broad definition of meltdown. She fell twice, yes, and had other small errors but as mentioned she wasn't a face to begin with and it was only considered a meltdown because she had placed so high after a strong SP.

4 or more major errors would be what I consider a (ie half the jumping passes) "meltdown". I also consider a meltdown when a skater puts themselves in a position to win but has a late series of errors (eg skates really well and messes up the final elements like Brezina's two falls that cost him a Worlds bronze, or Gold's World's FS last year).

Even if Osmond had landed one of the two jumps she fell on, she still would have been 8th. That's how strong the rest of the field performed. But in the context of it being her first Worlds, an 8th place finish was commendable and her overall competition performance was far from a meltdown or something to turn your nose up at. A "meltdown" is often pejorative too - like, it's rubbing in the skater's mistakes but it only applies if the skater had a legitimate shot to win something. No way could Kaetlyn have made the podium (you saw how low her PCS were for a clean SP) - nor could she have been expected to, but you're essentially saying "she had a meltdown and came 8th" when a non meltdown would have placed her 4th or 5th at best.

 

[karne]

Why is endless discussion about language semantics taking place in a thread about the Olympic team event?

 

[Osmond4gold]

^^ maybe because gravy missed his call to the stage, and wishes to express himself in other ways

 

[ancientpeas]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgqil8LZbwQ

Dramatic gravy! (although it's called Gravy Porn!) Not taking sides. Just thought it was funny.

Instead we shall have "stress free gravy" made by the naked chef himself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmxJeptDDlY

 

[gravy]

Why is endless discussion about language semantics taking place in a thread about the Olympic team event?

Over sensitivity.

 

[gravy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgqil8LZbwQ

Dramatic gravy! (although it's called Gravy Porn!) Not taking sides. Just thought it was funny.

Instead we shall have "stress free gravy" made by the naked chef himself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmxJeptDDlY

I can certainly see why people have beef with me. I make everything more delicious.

 

[Ice Dance]

OK, so its very plausible this is full of mistakes. But here is what I got today when I plugged in the current SB scores and assigned ranking points based on them. I only used the overall SB scores rather than separate short & free SB scores. Just didn't occur to me to do otherwise until after I had finished. (Oh, well, it's all in fun anyway). I did not mess with the SB scores. There were several times when I thought, Well, it’s not likely to work out this way. But I didn’t change anything based on my own instincts or consistency or head-to-head results or citizenship issues or athletes out from injury, etc. I used the top current SB score from each country in each discipline. Period. Less subjectivity that way. (And in many cases, if I had made the changes, it would have separated the teams more rather than altering the final results).

Total Points:
Canada-72 points
Russia-65 points
U.S.-60 points
Japan-57 points
France-51 points

The most interesting results, to me, were that France made it out of the qualifying round over China and that Japan & the U.S. tied during the final round. The U.S. comes out ahead based on the qualifying round, and I think it’s true that the U.S. has an advantage over Japan there. There are a lot of ways that China could make up the difference on France, in at least three disciplines, so I went ahead & ran an alternate scenario with China in the final group. (It didn’t change any of the top 4 countries’ placements. For that to happen China would need better scores, which they are certainly capable of). I also ran an alternative qualifying round scenario, with Australia instead of the Czech republic. It didn’t alter the results of any of the other 9 teams in the qualifying round either.

Here is all the data for how I got there:

Current SBs

Canada #1 pair, #1 dance, #5 men, #4 ladies

Russia #2 pair, #5 dance, #13 men, #1 ladies

U.S. #9 pair, #3 dance, #4 men, #8 ladies

Japan #26 pair (but likely no citizenship & the most likely team isn’t on the SB list), #29 dance, #1 men, #2 ladies

France #6 pair, #2 dance, #31 men, #26 ladies

China #5 pair (Sui & Han haven’t skated though & were #2 last year at Worlds), #33 dance, #6 men, #32 ladies

Italy #11 pair, #9 dance, #63 men, #9 ladies

Korea has #39 pair, #28 dance, #18 man, #25 ladies

Germany #3 pair, #24 dance, #62 men, #47 ladies

Czech Republic has #22 pair, #35 dance, #27 men, #87 ladies

Australia has the #29 pair, #98 dance, #36 men, #53 ladies

Great Britain #60 pair, (top dance team is injured but #7 from Worlds), #73 men, #99 ladies

UKR has the #54 pair, #34 dance, #61 men, #145 ladies




Qualifying Round w/the Top 10 Teams Above
Pairs:
1. Canada-10pt.
2. Russia-9pt.
3. Germany-8pt.
4. China-7pt.
5. France-6pt.
6. U.S.-5pt.
7. Italy-4pt.
8. Czech Republic-3pt.
9. Japan-2pt.
10. Korea-1pt.
Dance:
1. Canada-10pt.
2. France-9pt.
3. U.S.-8pt.
4. Russia-7pt.
5. Italy-6pt.
6. Germany-5pt.
7. Japan-4pt.
8. Korea-3pt.
9. China-2pt.
10. Czech Republic-1pt.
Men:
1. Japan-10pt.
2. U.S.-9pt.
3. Canada-8pt.
4. China-7pt.
5. Russia-6pt.
6. Korea-5pt.
7. Czech Republic-4pt.
8. France-3pt.
9. Germany-2pt.
10. Italy-1pt.
Ladies:
1. Russia-10pt.
2. Japan-9pt.
3. Canada-8pt.
4. U.S.-7pt.
5. Italy-6pt.
6. Korea-5pt.
7. France-4pt.
8. China-3pt.
9. Germany-2pt.
10. Czech Republic-1pt.

Qualifying Results:
Canada-36 points
Russia-32 points
U.S.-29 points
Japan-26 points
France-22 points
China-19pts.
Italy-17pts. (Tie)
Germany-17pts. (Tie)
Korea-14pts
Czech Republic-9pts
(Australia-7pts-if you switch Australia in for the Czech Republic)







Final Round
Pairs:
1. Canada-10pt.
2. Russia-9pt.
3. France-8pt.
4. U.S.-7pt.
5. Japan-6pt.
Dance:
1. Canada-10pt.
2. France-9pt.
3. U.S.-8pt.
4. Russia-7pt.
5. Japan-6pt.
Men
1. Japan-10pt.
2. U.S.-9pt.
3. Canada-8pt.
4. Russia-7pt.
5. France-6pt.
Ladies:
1. Russia-10pt.
2. Japan-9pt.
3. Canada-8pt.
4. U.S.-7pt.
5. France-6pt.

Final:
Canada-36 points
Russia-33 points
U.S.-31 points (tie)
Japan-31 points (tie)
France-29 points

Total Points:
Canada-72 points
Russia-65 points
U.S.-60 points
Japan-57 points
France-51 points





Alternate Qualifying Round w/Australia
Pairs:
11. Canada-10pt.
12. Russia-9pt.
13. Germany-8pt.
14. China-7pt.
15. France-6pt.
16. U.S.-5pt.
17. Italy-4pt.
18. Japan-3pt.
19. Australia-2pt.
20. Korea-1pt.
Dance:
11. Canada-10pt.
12. France-9pt.
13. U.S.-8pt.
14. Russia-7pt.
15. Italy-6pt.
16. Germany-5pt.
17. Japan-4pt.
18. Korea-3pt.
19. China-2pt.
20. Australia-1pt.
Men
11. Japan-10pt.
12. U.S.-9pt.
13. Canada-8pt.
14. China-7pt.
15. Russia-6pt.
16. Korea-5pt.
17. France-4pt.
18. Australia-3pt.
19. Germany-2pt.
20. Italy-1pt.
Ladies:
11. Russia-10pt.
12. Japan-9pt.
13. Canada-8pt.
14. U.S.-7pt.
15. Italy-6pt.
16. Korea-5pt.
17. France-4pt.
18. China-3pt.
19. Germany-2pt.
20. Australia-1pt.


Alternate Final Round w/China

Qualifying Round
Pairs:
1. Canada-10pt.
2. Russia-9pt.
3. China-8pt.
4. U.S.-7pt.
5. Japan-6pt.
Dance:
1. Canada-10pt.
2. U.S.-9pt.
3. Russia-8pt.
4. Japan-7pt.
5. China-6pt.
Men
1. Japan-10pt.
2. U.S.-9pt.
3. Canada-8pt.
4. China-7pt.
5. Russia-6pt

Ladies:
1. Russia-10pt.
2. Japan-9pt.
3. Canada-8pt.
4. U.S.-7pt.
5. China-6pt.

Final Points w/China:
Canada 36 pts.
Russia 33 pts.
U.S. 32 pts. (tie)
Japan 32 pts. (tie)
China-27pts
(Overall rankings would remain the same as the earlier comparison, with China switched in for France)

 

[Mathman]

Boyang Jin (is that the right order? I always see it both ways)

In China, it's Jin Boyang. In North America and Europe, it is more common to follow the Western convention and say Boyang (given name) Jin (family name).

 

[SnowWhite]

In China, it's Jin Boyang. In North America and Europe, it is more common to follow the Western convention and say Boyang (given name) Jin (family name).

Okay that's what I thought, thanks

 

[[email protected]]

OK, so its very plausible this is full of mistakes. But here is what I got today when I plugged in the current SB scores and assigned ranking points based on them.

It was a thorough analysis. It's biggest issue that gives Canada such an advantage over Russia is a pretty unrealistic assumption that veterans Chan and D/R are going to do team SP and LP. For them it is the last games: Chan will be 27 and D/R will be 33. Chan is a double OSM winner, for D/R it is everything to get the Olympic gold. I doubt that they will invest seriously in the team competition risking not to win the main event. Without them Canada will not have advantage either in men or in pairs in fact it will be likely the opposite.

 

[Ziotic]

Part of me thinks Patrick knows winning an individual OGM is a very long shot, and it's better to have one as a team then none at all since it's the same prize money. He also stated that his goal at this point is 10 national tittles so maybe he's not as focus on the OGM as it seems.

 

[4everchan]

It was a thorough analysis. It's biggest issue that gives Canada such an advantage over Russia is a pretty unrealistic assumption that veterans Chan and D/R are going to do team SP and LP. For them it is the last games: Chan will be 27 and D/R will be 33. Chan is a double OSM winner, for D/R it is everything to get the Olympic gold. I doubt that they will invest seriously in the team competition risking not to win the main event. Without them Canada will not have advantage either in men or in pairs in fact it will be likely the opposite.

Part of me thinks Patrick knows winning an individual OGM is a very long shot, and it's better to have one as a team then none at all since it's the same prize money. He also stated that his goal at this point is 10 national tittles so maybe he's not as focus on the OGM as it seems.

Patrick came back because he had more to give as a skater... he has improved so much in musical interpretation and artistically. On top of that, he is increasing his tech content every few months.... we are far from his return LP layout which included only 1 quad and 1 3A.... he is now doing 3 quads and 2 3A ...

This being said. as Ziotic said : he has not mentioned anything about objectives for world or olympics... the only title he is after is Nationals # 10.... he has 8 right now, so he needs the next two.

Regarding the team event : I agree with Ziotic... I think Patrick will skate both parts of it even.... D/R : I think they would only skate one segment, most likely the LP as since tech content is limited in the SP, the #2 Canadian team will be competitive with all the others if clean... but a clean D/R in LP is way ahead of anyone else at least in BV right now.

So, I wouldn't think that top Canadians would skip the event to focus on their individual events.... Yes D/R would like to win the pairs, but they also are the ones who show the biggest team spirits among Canadian skaters. Have you seen Meagan at WTC or WTT? She's such a trooper !

Of course, this will depend on how other skaters on the team do. However, I believe that both Patrick and D/R will be in the team event and perhaps even for both segments.... (at least that should be the case for Patrick).

I think skaters are more aware now of the implications of the team event and are probably training how to deal with back to back competitions. I don't think it's a very difficult challenge physically to be honest. They do run through of programs all the time... But i am sure that it is emotionally draining and that is a huge factor.

samkrut : one could think that S/K for instance, who already have a team event gold could not want to skate the FP as well and leave it to T/M... same with S/M... why bother when they have no chance??? A lot of factors will be in play then... not only involving Canadians

 

[[email protected]]

samkrut : one could think that S/K for instance, who already have a team event gold could not want to skate the FP as well and leave it to T/M... same with S/M... why bother when they have no chance??? A lot of factors will be in play then... not only involving Canadians

But T/M is going to win over any Canadian pair but D/R (in fact they just won GPF but I understand D/R peak at the main events).

S/M are irrelevant - Germany is unlikely to be in the team event. Even then it's all about relative places of Canada and Russia. I think it is going to be close.