2017 U.S. Nationals Championship Ladies FS

[hippomoomin]

The biggest disappointment is Gracie. I didn't see her turning things around here but her LP is a disaster. I tend to think she has physical issues plus mental issues. Not sure if she can ever be on the top again. She is 21, not super young anymore. Many skaters just decline technically after 19.

The biggest surprise is Caroline Zhang. I was very surprised at seeing her much faster and almost jumps differently than her pervious self. This kind of positive change does not happen a lot at 23. She also demonstrated ambition putting 3-3 and 3-2-2 after the half time mark.

 

[bobbob]

To me at least, Karen's 3Lz-3T in both programs were UR and she wasn't called on either of them or even flagged for a review. Ashley's were UR or borderline as well, but she wasn't given the same benefit of the doubt.

This is a problem with scoring at US nationals. It's one thing if the scores are inflated across the board and everyone is judged consistently, but ignoring URs for some skaters while nitpicking others or massively inflating PCS far beyond what skaters would get internationally is a problem. Karen got an 11-point boost in PCS from her GP scores, while Ashley got 1-2 points extra. It's the same reason Mirai was left off the 2014 Olympic team (and I like Mirai and actively root for her!) - judges at nationals didn't call her URs and gave her PCS that she'd never get internationally, and that was recognized by the selection panel when Mirai was left off the team. It's heartbreaking, but they're not doing the skaters any favors by operating this way.

Agreed. Ashley had one more triple than Karen (7 to 6 with both having one UR) as well as way better PCS.

 

[gold12345]

Let's see what happens at 4CC, which I hope she doesn't skip, to ensure that this win isn't just a fluke.

I highly doubt Karen would skip 4CC.

There really is no comparison between the 2 scenarios. In the 2014 season, Wagner had won silver at Skate America, gold at Trophee Eric Bompard, which advanced her to the Grand Prix Final where she won bronze. The pewter (4th) at Nationals was Ashley's only blemish of that season. The USFSA had more than enough justification for selecting Ashley over Mirai. Gold placed 5th at Skate America, 8th at Trophee Eric Bompard, and 6th at Golden Spin of Zagreb and only managed 6th at Nationals in a season plagued with numerous falls and popped jumps. It's an absurd suspension of reality for Gracie or Frank to suggest that Gold belongs on the World team this season when she has not once skated with any sense of confidence or triumph.

This. Gracie has been way off this entire season. She isn't just falling, she is popping jumps in a way that make it look like her head is in the wrong place on the ice. You can tell before she goes into certain jumps that she's going to pop them. The fact that she's been popping 2As this season is telling. At this point, Mariah is truly a better bet for a good result at Worlds. Gracie didn't really come close to beating Mirai here, never mind Mariah.

 

[thoakun]

Overall a very good event. I can feel the amazing energy from the audience just by watching Youtube videos and the media seems to be quite level-headed. Just like Ashley said, a fresh crop of skaters are arriving, which is awesome for skating.

I remember there's a Japanese skating fan who often translates media coverage of Japanese figure skating into English. When asked about the woeful scenario that Japan may lose the 3rd spot for the Olympics at the upcoming Worlds, she said: "If Japan doesn't get the 3rd spot, it simply means that they're not good enough". Let the chips fall where they may be. If you require too much head scratching over who to send to Worlds to retain 3 spots, then you're not even that good.

I remember there're several cases in gymnastics when young athletes saw that they were trusted by their Federations, they gave it their all and exceeded everyone's expectation. Hope the same thing will happen to Karen and Mariah, especially when the alternatives are no more reliable.

 

[kalle]

hmmm...not really...If all the events in each tier are actually weighted equally (big if) then (forgetting Ashley since she's a lock)....
Tier 1:
At this event karen won (agree or not), while Mariah 3rd and Mirai 4th. None of the 3 qualed for GPF, and Mirai placed 10th at worlds last year. So karen obviously has the edge in this category, though Mirai has worlds experience.

Tier 2:
Mirai didn't do great (9th, 5th) at GP events, but her silver at FCC was definitely a big boost. Karen did just as poorly (7th, 6th), even losing to Mirai at GPJPN, and finished 12th (10 spots below Mirai) at FCC last year. Mariah did very well in her single GP (2nd), but had no FCC experience. So in this category Mirai and mariah have the edge over Karen.

Tier 3:
Mirai WON a CS event AND had a petwer medal at last years Nationals. Karen finished 3rd and 7th at two CS events and finished 8th last year. Mariah got 2, 3, 4 at three CS events and finished 11th at least years nationals. Mirai by far wins this category, Mariah and Karen about equal.

So objectively speaking, the three are about on a level playing field...
(Or maybe I'm just too hopeful for Mirai)

Interesting analysis, thank you!

 

[jenaj]

I think Karen Chen has a lot of potential- good spins, huge jumps, etc. But, IMO, Ashley should've won the FS. Given what happened in the short, the final result may still be correct- Ashley was judged generously in the short (the 2A was way short) and had she been lower down, I don't know if she could've made up the difference even if the free skate had been scored right. (I'd have had Ashley around 141 and Karen around 137 for tonight; I think Karen should've been around 70 for her SP, Ashley around 67).

Karen's score tonight was pretty generous considering she only did 6 clean triples (and her 3T on the back end of the 3Z-3T looked underrotated to me). Plus, her PCS isn't on the level of Ashley's if we're talking about performance, composition, and interpretation. I'm not surprised at her score given what Mariah Bell got, but I'm not thrilled.

FWIW, I think Mariah's program was great after the 3 jump combo. The beginning was very tense- she was barely performing at all- and the jumps were sloppy. She should be around 129.

Ashley was her own worst enemy- bad 2A in the short, UR on the 3T, no 2T, and she lost a level on her last spin.

I think Karen and Ashley should go to Worlds. I'd leave the 3rd spot open and make it dependent on 4CC. Especially if Ashley decides she doesn't want to go, the USFS should send Karen, Mariah, and Gracie. We should send the skaters to Worlds who have the best chance to get 3 spots for Pyeongchang. If Gracie's head is on straight, that includes her. Let's give her one more chance to pull it together.

Why would they send Gracie to 4CC over Mirai? With all of her problems, Mirai has had a better season than Gracie. But oh, I forgot, it's the USFSA.

 

[NAOTMAA]

The biggest disappointment is Gracie. I didn't see her turning things around here but her LP is a disaster. I tend to think she has physical issues plus mental issues. Not sure if she can ever be on the top again. She is 21, not super young anymore. Many skaters just decline technically after 19.

The biggest surprise is Caroline Zhang. I was very surprised at seeing her much faster and almost jumps differently than her pervious self. This kind of positive change does not happen a lot at 23. She also demonstrated ambition putting 3-3 and 3-2-2 after the half time mark.

A few months ago a hundred posts mentioning the name of Maria Butyrskaya would probably have popped up

Although Maria was a trillion times more fierce and determined then Gracie ever was and probably ever will be : So I'm not sure even the Maria comparison can even work anymore

 

[hippomoomin]

Karen vs. Ashely

To be fair, Karen is faster and has better edge than Ashely. She also has much better spins than Ashely. Except for the 3t, her other jumps have better quality than Ashley. I thought she has been underscored in the second mark, mostly because she is not consistent.

Ashely's advantage is her polished style. She looks very cautious today and looks slower than usual, especially her spins.

 

[amc987]

Why would they send Gracie to 4CC over Mirai? With all of her problems, Mirai has had a better season than Gracie. But oh, I forgot, it's the USFSA.

As much as I love Mirai, I don't know if she can plausibly place in the top 10 at Worlds given her record for URs. There are a lot more skaters in the mix this year than there were last year: All 3 Russians (Sotskova is the weakest) + 3 Japanese (Mihara is the weakest) + Osmond and Daleman + Kostner. We need to keep 3 spots for Pyeongchang.

Ashley and Gracie, skating at their best, can place on the podium even when the field is that packed. They have the international track record/ components necessary. Karen's too new. Mariah Bell is too iffy under pressure. Mirai gets called on her URs too much and didn't do a very good long program at Nationals. I think it makes sense, totally apart from the business reasons that might drive USFS w/r/t Gracie, to give Gracie as many chances as possible to show what she's capable of.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The biggest disappointment is Gracie. I didn't see her turning things around here but her LP is a disaster. I tend to think she has physical issues plus mental issues. Not sure if she can ever be on the top again. She is 21, not super young anymore. Many skaters just decline technically after 19.

Gracie will bounce back. She now has closure on a bad season and has plenty of time to regroup. Gracie learned that she can't half-a** her preparation and medal at our nationals. I think this result, more than any other, will reignite the hunger in her.

 

[chuckm]

I was rooting for Mirai to bring it. But there is no reason for USFS to consider anything else but Karen, Ashley, and Mariah for worlds.

And that means we will have two Ladies berths for the Olympics.

Karen is a star at US Nationals, but she doesn't do well internationally unless the event is held in the US.

Her only good ISU finish this year was at the US Intl Classic where she was 3rd.
This year she was 6th and 7th in the GP and 7th at Golden Spin, where even Gracie beat her.
Last year, with her boot problems, she had two 5th place finishes in the GP.
She was 12th last year at 4CC. She went to JW twice and finished 8th and 9th.

Mariah lacks international experience and like Karen, seems to do better at competitions in the US (she was 2nd at both Skate America and the US Intl Classic). She was 4th behind Bradie Tennell at Tallinn Trophy.

These two are likely to receive "newbie" treatment at Worlds and that doesn't bode well for their PCS scores, especially if they don't skate as clean as they did at Nationals.

 

[Mathman]

... she said: "If Japan doesn't get the 3rd spot, it simply means that they're not good enough". Let the chips fall where they may be. If you require too much head scratching over who to send to Worlds to retain 3 spots, then you're not even that good.

Thank you. I totally agree. Send your best and let the chips fall where they may. All the head-scratching in the world is not going to make anyone skate any better at Worlds.

 

[Mrs. P]

Honestly, I think the last thing Gracie needs is extra pressure to get a third spot based on a committee selection. See Maxim Kovtun in 2013 for how that turned out.

Whether your country has 2 or 3 spots doesn't matter ultimately if you bring it. Jeremy Abbot and Jason Brown can tell you that in 2014. So could Mirai Nagasu and Rachel Flatt in 2010. And yes it was heartbreaking to be one short (i.e. Max Aaron in 2014 or Ashley Wagner in 2010) but it's going to be heart breaking regardless the person out is in 3rd or 4th depending on spots.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think Karen Chen has a lot of potential- good spins, huge jumps, etc. But, IMO, Ashley should've won the FS. Given what happened in the short, the final result may still be correct- Ashley was judged generously in the short (the 2A was way short) and had she been lower down, I don't know if she could've made up the difference even if the free skate had been scored right.

This is why I'm ok with the result. Karen got away with a few close calls, but they gave Ashley credit for that bad 2A in the short. Overall, it wasn't a very well judged event, from the standpoint of accurate < calls. The three medalists are the correct ones, but they are going to get a big wake-up call at worlds if they execute the jumps the same way.

 

[moonvine]

Gracie will bounce back. She now has closure on a bad season and has plenty of time to regroup. Gracie learned that she can't half-a** her preparation and medal at our nationals. I think this result, more than any other, will reignite the hunger in her.

I surely hope so. I was so very sad for her. I hate to think this may be the last time I see her skate in person. If all the stuff thrown on the ice after a sub par skate means anything, she still has plenty of fans.

 

[stella luna]

Oh please, in her memoir Dorothy Hamill talks about a competition in which she says she did not skate better than a competitor, but was held up due to her reputation. And that was before the Internet. If you can't believe something like that would happen, you are naive.

I don't think the U.S. relies on propping people up. I think that posters on the Internet have active imaginations.

 

[Alchamei]

Your post is offensive and inaccurate.

No invasion whatsoever. Karen and Maia and Alex all were born in the U.S. They are as American as Ashley Wagner or Mariah Bell or Madi Chock or Evan Bates or Madi Hubbell or Zachary Donohue.

Oh my, it's just a joke. We all know they are American, they wouldn't be competing here if they weren't, it's just a funny way to poke at the situation and celebrate the skaters.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

These two are likely to receive "newbie" treatment at Worlds and that doesn't bode well for their PCS scores, especially if they don't skate as clean as they did at Nationals.

I agree, but after the performances tonight, there aren't any other options. Gracie and Mirai gave the USFSA no reason to include them on the team. Both skated scared and tentative. Realistically, no three skaters are going to place high enough for us to keep three spots for the games, mainly because the Canadians have stepped up and Caro is back.

 

[draqq]

No one is propping her up. She skated two clean, beautiful programs. Who was she "propped" over?

I won't deny that Chen had the best performance today, but the marking is quite suspect. The judges at this competition gave her inflated PCS and GOE scores, which is typical of the Nationals of course, but it's way out of line of what the international judges have given her this year.

Apart from her combination spin and layback spin, her jumps and footwork have received +1s at best, not +2s and +3s. They marked this way at NHK Trophy, at Cup of China, and at Golden Spin. In those competitions, she received edge calls on her flip jumps and frequently called her jumps underrotated. Here at Nationals, she didn't get a single < or << or edge call. The National judges are overmarking her completed elements and bolstering her PCS, which is closer to the low to mid-7s by international standards.

This kind of overinflation is terrible and gives now the expectation that she'll be one of the leading US ladies in international competition. And then when she doesn't get those scores we expect her to receive in international competition, she'll feel even more deflated than she would have been if she was marked properly at Nationals. The judges are propping her up like a bubble that's much too ready to burst.

 

[NAOTMAA]

It is rather interesting that the reigning world silver medalist and the one (of the main contenders) with the best international results was the one the judges most scrutinized while the others (who have been less then spectacular internationally) where handled with more ease. What's the motivation behind that? :think: