2018-2019 State of Japanese Men's Skating

[yume]

Shun Sato just performed his new SP (Maksim's version of Merry Christmas Mr. Lawrence) at Aqua Cup Figure Skating Competition scoring 66.34.
According to fans tweeting reports from the arena, he cleanly jumped 3A, 3Lz3T, 3F with both the combo and Flip in the 2nd half of his SP.
His expression and spins are also said to have improved from last season.

https://twitter.com/Matsu10_4/status/1013018348299272193
https://twitter.com/yugo0527/status/1013018352820805632
https://twitter.com/satosysk8/status/1013018056602210304

That's promising.

 

[tsuyoboogie]

Good to hear Hiroaki's back, I quite enjoyed his enthusiasm and energy last season. I'm quite nervous about the TBD NHK spot at this point. I have two favorites I want to get it, and there could always be an as-of-yet-unannounced move into seniors (IDK about Sena, but both Mitsuki and Tatsuya are good enough to get it IMO).

I think it's safe to say that Mitsuki and Tsuboi will remain as Juniors. The only reason for Mitsuki to move to Senior rank next season is if he is shockingly not being considered for a JGP.
Sena tends to be inconsistent but is one of the current Japanese junior men said to have a competition ready quad. He was prepared to debut it sometime last season but plans got derailed after his injury (right foot fracture) during JGP Austria.
Competition for the 7 available Men's JGP spots is going to be extremely tough. Similar to last season, I believe it's going to be "no 3A, no JGP". Difference is, there is now a lot more Japanese junior men attempting and/or with a relatively consistent 3A and several challenging quads. This could actually mean skaters with a great deal of talent and potential like Kazuki Hasegawa, Takeru Kataise (one of my favorites), Yuto Kishina (probably my current favorite junior), Tsuboi and even Koshiro will not get a JGP.

As for the NHK TBD spot, I really feel that it's between Sota and Suzuki Jun right now. These two guys are sentimental favorites of Japanese fans.
For Hino to get another chance he will definitely need to show JSF something special early in the season.
Shu Nakamura is a possibility but will need a quad.
Kazuki Kushida could also be considered but he would need another breakout moment like he had at last year's Junior Nationals.

EDIT: I also anticipate a rise by Hidetsugu Kamata again this season...providing he remains uninjured.

 

[yume]

I think that if Sota recover his 3A, and land it consistently during summer comps and challengers, he will get the host pick. Without that i don't see how JSF could give it to him. My bet is on Jun Suzuki for the moment.

 

[surimi]

Thanks for the clarification!

This could actually mean skaters with a great deal of talent and potential like Kazuki Hasegawa, Takeru Kataise (one of my favorites), Yuto Kishina (probably my current favorite junior), Tsuboi and even Koshiro will not get a JGP.

Rats, just when I was seriously considering watching JGP for the first time ever. Koshiro, Tatsuya and Kazuki H have kind of won me over this season, though I don't know the other boys.

As for the NHK TBD spot, I really feel that it's between Sota and Suzuki Jun right now. These two guys are sentimental favorites of Japanese fans.
For Hino to get another chance he will definitely need to show JSF something special early in the season.
Shu Nakamura is a possibility but will need a quad.
Kazuki Kushida could also be considered but he would need another breakout moment like he had at last year's Junior Nationals.

Double rats. I was hoping, perhaps foolishly, that his Nationals performance would win him some big points in the JSF's eyes. He's wildly inconsistent, yes, but it's not like the others are always clean...
OT: PMF asking what could be googled, but why is Suzuki a sentimental favourite? (I admit I know nothing about him)

 

[Yatagarasu]

Competition for the 7 available Men's JGP spots is going to be extremely tough. Similar to last season, I believe it's going to be "no 3A, no JGP".

Yes, this bit interests me. Who is, realistically speaking, up for those?

Shun is 14, has a 3A, so am wondering if JSF will give him the opportunity. They should, IMO, he's too huge of a talent to be 'buried' in Japan.

 

[yume]

Yes, this bit interests me. Who is, realistically speaking, up for those?

Shun is 14, has a 3A, so am wondering if JSF will give him the opportunity. They should, IMO, he's too huge of a talent to be 'buried' in Japan.

JSF have to give him a JGP. Beside his solid 3A, he also attempted a 4S in local competition.

 

[Yatagarasu]

JSF have to give him a JGP. Beside his solid 3A, he also attempted a 4S in local competition.

I certainly hope so. Very young but so good (well, not the spins )
If he 'shows up' fingers crossed, as then he could really challenge next season when the judges already know him. He's from the wrong place so no Fed push but he can build his own. Fingers crossed.

 

[tsuyoboogie]

I think that if Sota recover his 3A, and land it consistently during summer comps and challengers, he will get the host pick. Without that i don't see how JSF could give it to him. My bet is on Jun Suzuki for the moment.

I honestly don't see Sota recovering his 3A anytime soon. It was obvious that the jump made him nervous which was probably the reason he injured himself practicing it. He's more likely to get back the 4T. Before his injury, his 4T was actually relatively consistent. He seemed to mainly have trouble with his quad when he failed the 3A.

Yes, this bit interests me. Who is, realistically speaking, up for those?

Shun is 14, has a 3A, so am wondering if JSF will give him the opportunity. They should, IMO, he's too huge of a talent to be 'buried' in Japan.

Rats, just when I was seriously considering watching JGP for the first time ever. Koshiro, Tatsuya and Kazuki H have kind of won me over this season, though I don't know the other boys.

Of course it really depends on how they did at the JGP selection event but I'm guessing Mitsuki, Sena, and Shun Sato will be on the list for sure.
Tsuboi, Taichiro Yamakuma (though IMO he should move to Seniors or tryout for Pairs with Riko Takino ), Yuma Kagiyama, Yuto Kishina and Koshiro are strong possibilities.
Kao Miura, Takeru Kataise, Kazuki Hasegawa, Lucas Tsuyoshi Honda, or Yuki Kunikata may sneak in.

Double rats. I was hoping, perhaps foolishly, that his Nationals performance would win him some big points in the JSF's eyes. He's wildly inconsistent, yes, but it's not like the others are always clean...
OT: PMF asking what could be googled, but why is Suzuki a sentimental favourite? (I admit I know nothing about him)

I actually don't think Hino is all that inconsistent. It's just his 4T. He also tends to perform better at home vs international competitions. He actually consistently scores higher than all the guys I've mentioned including Hiroaki Sato and often Kazuki Tomono.
Poor Hino, IMO he just needs...something~
I honestly don't know myself what it is that makes Jun Suzuki a fan favorite. Maybe it's because he's been around for so long and persevered? Its just that I've noticed how much attention he receives from fans when there is an article or story done on him.


Sorry, for taking so long to reply. I have a difficult time putting my thoughts down.

 

[bluelutz]

I think it's safe to say that Mitsuki and Tsuboi will remain as Juniors. The only reason for Mitsuki to move to Senior rank next season is if he is shockingly not being considered for a JGP.

I read somewhere that Mitsuki was at the recent JGP selection event, and there is no reason for the federation to rush him to the senior ranks since it is so hard to survive on GPS on their own without any consistent quad unless they have high PCS like JB or AR. Tatsuya Tusboi even does not have 3A, so he is out of question for moving up to the senior.

Competition for the 7 available Men's JGP spots is going to be extremely tough. Similar to last season, I believe it's going to be "no 3A, no JGP". Difference is, there is now a lot more Japanese junior men attempting and/or with a relatively consistent 3A and several challenging quads. This could actually mean skaters with a great deal of talent and potential like Kazuki Hasegawa, Takeru Kataise (one of my favorites), Yuto Kishina (probably my current favorite junior), Tsuboi and even Koshiro will not get a JGP.

I agree. The last season originally Japan got 6 spots, but subsequently they got four extra from other countries, Korea released half of their spots which were earned by Cha, and a few others like Israel gave up some of their spots as well, so the total was ten spots. Japan initially named 5 skaters, Sumoto, Shimada, Miyake, Kishina & Yamakuma based on their past results, the result of the selection event and their capability of 3A (except Shimada as they believed his potential). Though Shun Sato got 3A, the quality of his other skills was not par with those five guys. Since Miyake and Yamakuma bombed at their first ones, Tsuboi who did not have 3A was sent to two events out of the sub list, and DID WELL with falls of 3A.
It would be nice if they can get extra spots like last year, but no guarantee.
Since this year Tsuyoshi Lucas Honda and Yuma Kagiyama have landed 3A at the local competitions, though we do not know how consistent they are, they are the part of the mix of this selection. Also Kao Miura who newly comes to the junior ranks can be a factor.

Based on the last year's result, both Mituski and Shun got semi-consistent 3A, Sena's and Taichio's were about 50%, Yuto's was about 20%, Tatsuya's was 0%, and Koshiro and Kazuki did not even attempt one.

Judging with all these facts and the last season's results, Mistuki is going to JGP, that is for sure, and probably Shun as well if his other elements got significant improvement like some twitter reports stated, also probably Sena will get a ticket. For the rest of the spots, it depends on how many extra spots they get, there is a tough competition among rest of the boys.

As for NHK, I am not surprised at the selection of Hioaki Sato at all since he is only one Japanese skater, besides those who earned their own spots, who got 3A and 4T. No, his 4T is not very consistent and surely others have attempted quads, but theirs were just attempts.
TBD is probably for Sota, Jun or Ryuju. I would be happy if any of them are selected for this. Sota is younger than others by 5 years or so, but currently he does not have 3A or 4T, and still nursing his injuries. I do not want him to push himself too much.
However, he needs to start practicing them soon if he likes to keep his Olympic dream alive. In order to be considered as one of serious contenders of the Olympic team, he needs to do well internationally during the previous season of it, which will be 2020-2021, that means he needs consistent 3A and at least one kind of quad, preferably two, by then. And the negative fact is that he did not have consistent 3A or 4T even before the injuries, and also he no longer has coach Nagakubo beside him, who was the sole reason that Sota moved to Nagoya. The rest of Howa club coaching team, Naruse, Kawaume and Hongo, all females, can they teach him big jumps?? Tatsuya, who is a member of the same club, is struggling with his 3A, and Ryuju never got the consistent 4T though they hired Takeahi Honda for Tatusya to teach 3A. So they can get some outside help.

 

[yume]

Who is the best coach in Japan who can help Sota with his jumps?

Shoma is the one outside Yuzuru who has very competitive jumps (i will not comment his technique). He trains in Japan but practice his jumps with Ouriashev. So i will not totally give credit to Yamada and Higuchi for his jumps.

Who is Kazuki's coach?

 

[surimi]

As for NHK, I am not surprised at the selection of Hioaki Sato at all since he is only one Japanese skater, besides those who earned their own spots, who got 3A and 4T. No, his 4T is not very consistent and surely others have attempted quads, but theirs were just attempts.
TBD is probably for Sota, Jun or Ryuju. I would be happy if any of them are selected for this. Sota is younger than others by 5 years or so, but currently he does not have 3A or 4T, and still nursing his injuries. I do not want him to push himself too much.
However, he needs to start practicing them soon if he likes to keep his Olympic dream alive. In order to be considered as one of serious contenders of the Olympic team, he needs to do well internationally during the previous season of it, which will be 2020-2021, that means he needs consistent 3A and at least one kind of quad, preferably two, by then. And the negative fact is that he did not have consistent 3A or 4T even before the injuries, and also he no longer has coach Nagakubo beside him, who was the sole reason that Sota moved to Nagoya. The rest of Howa club coaching team, Naruse, Kawaume and Hongo, all females, can they teach him big jumps?? Tatsuya, who is a member of the same club, is struggling with his 3A, and Ryuju never got the consistent 4T though they hired Takeahi Honda for Tatusya to teach 3A. So they can get some outside help.

Thanks for your insight, bluelutz! I'd be interested to read your analysis of the senior Men on TJ, as I learned a lot reading the one about the junior men.
I do wish there was a good male jump coach at Howa to help out with the boys. I hope they can find someone to join the team permanently. :[ I'd just add that Hiroaki's 3A isn't always consistent either, though? I think I recall him singling both of his 3A at the Luxembourg event this spring.

I honestly don't see Sota recovering his 3A anytime soon. It was obvious that the jump made him nervous which was probably the reason he injured himself practicing it. He's more likely to get back the 4T. Before his injury, his 4T was actually relatively consistent. He seemed to mainly have trouble with his quad when he failed the 3A.

I just tried reading an interview segment related to it today, and it seems like it was a stress fracture from overtraining (and IMO, quite possibly the growth spurt at the same time) that had been hurting for a while, and the last 3A attempt was just the last straw. But I may be wrong, google translate's so unreliable. But I agree, it seems there was some sort of mental block related to the 3A that I hope gets fixed in the future. Definitely not a Yuzuru v.2 then, eh. I'm glad people stopped saying it TBH.

I actually don't think Hino is all that inconsistent. It's just his 4T. He also tends to perform better at home vs international competitions. He actually consistently scores higher than all the guys I've mentioned including Hiroaki Sato and often Kazuki Tomono.
Poor Hino, IMO he just needs...something~

But he's not alone in scoring better on home soil, Keiji performs better at home too. Or at least in Asia. Anyway, I believe what he needs is a complete overhaul, because his packaging is doing him no favours. It's worth a try, even given his age. Last year's FP music was such a mismatch most of the time that I'm astonished he managed to perform so well to it at Nationals. And his expression, uhh, how many times have TV commentators and fans alike said what a difference it makes in the overall impression for a skater to smile and engage.

I honestly don't know myself what it is that makes Jun Suzuki a fan favorite. Maybe it's because he's been around for so long and persevered? Its just that I've noticed how much attention he receives from fans when there is an article or story done on him. Sorry, for taking so long to reply. I have a difficult time putting my thoughts down.

OK, I'll go back to the old videos and give Suzuki a chance. And don't be sorry, I like reading your thoughts, regardless of when they come :thumbsup:

 

[tsuyoboogie]

I read somewhere that Mitsuki was at the recent JGP selection event, and there is no reason for the federation to rush him to the senior ranks since it is so hard to survive on GPS on their own without any consistent quad unless they have high PCS like JB or AR. Tatsuya Tusboi even does not have 3A, so he is out of question for moving up to the senior.

I agree. The last season originally Japan got 6 spots, but subsequently they got four extra from other countries, Korea released half of their spots which were earned by Cha, and a few others like Israel gave up some of their spots as well, so the total was ten spots. Japan initially named 5 skaters, Sumoto, Shimada, Miyake, Kishina & Yamakuma based on their past results, the result of the selection event and their capability of 3A (except Shimada as they believed his potential). Though Shun Sato got 3A, the quality of his other skills was not par with those five guys. Since Miyake and Yamakuma bombed at their first ones, Tsuboi who did not have 3A was sent to two events out of the sub list, and DID WELL with falls of 3A.
It would be nice if they can get extra spots like last year, but no guarantee.
Since this year Tsuyoshi Lucas Honda and Yuma Kagiyama have landed 3A at the local competitions, though we do not know how consistent they are, they are the part of the mix of this selection. Also Kao Miura who newly comes to the junior ranks can be a factor.

Based on the last year's result, both Mituski and Shun got semi-consistent 3A, Sena's and Taichio's were about 50%, Yuto's was about 20%, Tatsuya's was 0%, and Koshiro and Kazuki did not even attempt one.

Judging with all these facts and the last season's results, Mistuki is going to JGP, that is for sure, and probably Shun as well if his other elements got significant improvement like some twitter reports stated, also probably Sena will get a ticket. For the rest of the spots, it depends on how many extra spots they get, there is a tough competition among rest of the boys.

As for NHK, I am not surprised at the selection of Hioaki Sato at all since he is only one Japanese skater, besides those who earned their own spots, who got 3A and 4T. No, his 4T is not very consistent and surely others have attempted quads, but theirs were just attempts.
TBD is probably for Sota, Jun or Ryuju. I would be happy if any of them are selected for this. Sota is younger than others by 5 years or so, but currently he does not have 3A or 4T, and still nursing his injuries. I do not want him to push himself too much.
However, he needs to start practicing them soon if he likes to keep his Olympic dream alive. In order to be considered as one of serious contenders of the Olympic team, he needs to do well internationally during the previous season of it, which will be 2020-2021, that means he needs consistent 3A and at least one kind of quad, preferably two, by then. And the negative fact is that he did not have consistent 3A or 4T even before the injuries, and also he no longer has coach Nagakubo beside him, who was the sole reason that Sota moved to Nagoya. The rest of Howa club coaching team, Naruse, Kawaume and Hongo, all females, can they teach him big jumps?? Tatsuya, who is a member of the same club, is struggling with his 3A, and Ryuju never got the consistent 4T though they hired Takeahi Honda for Tatusya to teach 3A. So they can get some outside help.

Thank you for your post bluelutz!
Yuma Kagiyama also mentioned that he was at the selection event. Not sure how well it went for him though. He just said it was "tense".
I'm still holding on to hope that Takeru Kataise has fully recovered from injury and has been practicing the 3A. Would really love to see him make the JGP list.
I'm actually a bit worried about Kao Miura seeing how tall he's grown recently. Hope his growth spurt hasn't messed too much with the stability of his jumps.

Speaking of Kao, I've been meaning to ask you, I've read sometime ago that he is coached by former Ice Dancer, Nakako Tsuzuki, daughter of Shoichiro Tsuzuki sensei. I may have misunderstood, but I think you mentioned in a post in another thread that Kao is being coached by Mr. Tsuzuki. I believe both father and daughter still teach at the same rink so wondering if they might also also share coaching duties with select skaters. Or is Kao currently training exclusively with Mr. Tsuzuki?

Regarding NHK, the main reason I believe JSF would consider giving Sota the host spot, regardless of a 3A or quad, is to keep him motivated. Sota's recuperation seems to be going much better now that he's participating in events again, interacting with skaters who encourage and challenge him, and is able to directly feel the support of his fans. JSF is not going to let Sota's talent be wasted on his despair.

Anyway, I'm anxiously awaiting the updated supported skater's list that should post in a couple of days.
Not sure about the Men but I definitely expect to see some Ladies and Ice Dance teams added.

Who is the best coach in Japan who can help Sota with his jumps?

Shoma is the one outside Yuzuru who has very competitive jumps (i will not comment his technique). He trains in Japan but practice his jumps with Ouriashev. So i will not totally give credit to Yamada and Higuchi for his jumps.

Who is Kazuki's coach?

Kazuki is primarily coached by Taijin Hiraike. Coach Hiraike has taught Kazuki since he was about 5 years old. Yukako Sugita and more recently Akio Sasaki have been added to his team. Not sure about Sugita's role but I heavily doubt that Sasaki was brought on to assist with jumps. Honestly speaking, just two seasons ago Kazuki had a lot of issues with jump technique. Not sure who they got to work with him (maybe Sugita?) but there has definitely been improvement since.
I remember wishing Mitsuki's coach, Yoshinori Onishi, who also coached Tatsuki Machida would help with Kazuki's jumps. Hino also trained for a bit with Onishi at the beginning of last season. Not sure if it made a much of a difference. Kento Suginaka is also coached by Onishi. His jumps are not very stable but this probably has more to do with innate ability rather than learned technique.

 

[tsuyoboogie]

I just tried reading an interview segment related to it today, and it seems like it was a stress fracture from overtraining (and IMO, quite possibly the growth spurt at the same time) that had been hurting for a while, and the last 3A attempt was just the last straw. But I may be wrong, google translate's so unreliable. But I agree, it seems there was some sort of mental block related to the 3A that I hope gets fixed in the future. Definitely not a Yuzuru v.2 then, eh. I'm glad people stopped saying it TBH.

Thank you so much for the info. You're probably right. With Sota's rapid growth and the way he was forcing himself to keep up with Nathan that season it makes sense.
I just remember cringing every time he would attempt a 3A.

But he's not alone in scoring better on home soil, Keiji performs better at home too. Or at least in Asia. Anyway, I believe what he needs is a complete overhaul, because his packaging is doing him no favours. It's worth a try, even given his age. Last year's FP music was such a mismatch most of the time that I'm astonished he managed to perform so well to it at Nationals. And his expression, uhh, how many times have TV commentators and fans alike said what a difference it makes in the overall impression for a skater to smile and engage.

This is exactly it! I didn't really want to elaborate earlier since I was already saying so much but I think Hino could really benefit from not being so serious and intense during his performances. He just needs and "lighten up" a bit.
Yuzuru can get away with "intense" and Shoma with "serious" because they're both able to engage their audience.
With the right programs, Keiji can get away with "intense" because IMO he has a natural smoldering type of sex appeal.
Ryuju's intensity and glare however, comes across (to me anyway) as angry and intimidating. I'm not saying he needs to ham it up like Kazuki T. or Hiroaki Sato, just relax a bit and enjoy himself. And who knows, this may also help with the consistency of his 4T. I really like his skating and find his jumps to be very pretty. I'd like to see him bring some of his quirky personality to his performances. I'm certain with some redirection and the right programs he could breakthrough again.

Incidentally, up until now I've felt that Shun Sato also lacked the ability to engage an audience. I know people always knock Mitsuki for his "stone face" but at least he expresses well with his body. Now that Shun's jumps seem to have stabilized I'm glad to hear that he's keeping his head up while performing and focusing a bit more on his artistry and expression.

And don't be sorry, I like reading your thoughts, regardless of when they come :thumbsup:

Awww~ Thank you!

 

[tsuyoboogie]

ummm... gonna revise my NHK host pick prediction~ :rofl2:

 

[s_parks]

ummm... gonna revise my NHK host pick prediction~ :rofl2:

I really hope he gets it, if only because it'll be fun to see him on the gp circuit after years away, lol.

 

[yume]

Is this serious? Dai return.
I thought Nobu was the one who would un-retire

 

[Yatagarasu]

I hope Kazuki manages to hold his own. He's very, very good and a promising name for Japanese skating in the future who needs space and opportunity to grow, not this mess and it'll come with Kansai support.
I can already see the overscoring on PCS coming from a mile away so hope Kazuki manages to outdo that one with some solid TES. Keiji too. Good luck guys.

 

[chopinskate]

I'm just not sure what to think.

 

[Alchamei]

I hope Kazuki manages to hold his own. He's very, very good and a promising name for Japanese skating in the future who needs space and opportunity to grow, not this mess and it'll come with Nagoya being involved.
I can already see the overscoring on PCS coming from a mile away so hope Kazuki manages to outdo that one with some solid TES. Keiji too. Good luck guys.

What, you're talking about Daisuke? How??? He was underscored on PCS if anything for his whole career!

 

[yoloaxel]

I'm just not sure what to think.

I'm also shocked! Maybe Dai can have a Caro-style return? I'm so shocked tbh