US Nationals - What are your thoughts?

[leon]

There should be no doubt Kimmie has clearly demonstrated the fact she is the only American skater among the top 5 or 6 world class elite skaters competing today. Based on her actual performances from Calgary through the Grand Prix she is almost certain to get on the podium in any International competition she enters. No other active American skater has a record close to that.

Kimmie is the defending World champion and 5th highest point getter in the 2006 Grand Prix series. Only 3 Japanese and YuNa Kim of Korea had higher scores going into the GPF. Kimmie was 35 points ahead Sebastian (who bounced Kimmie out of the GPF based on skating against "no one" in China and Russia) and 35 points behind Mao, the leader in total COP points. Kimmie was the only US skater to get over 300 points.

Top 10 COP scores going into the GP Final (qualifiers in bold) were:
1. Asada 370.75 [GPF qualified]
2. Ando 367.03 [GPF qualified]
3. Kim Yuna 353.02 [GPF qualified]
4. Suguri 348.07 [GPF qualified]
5. Meissner 335.81 [not qualified for Grand Prix Final]
6. Meier 328.18 [GPF qualified w/gold in Russia]
7. Rochette 325.38 [not qualified for Grand Prix Final]
8. Nakano 312.20 [not qualified for Grand Prix Final]
9. Poykio 310.39 [not qualified for Grand Prix Final]
10. Sebastian Julia 300.55 [GPF qualified w/gold in China]

Notice the third highest point getter (Yuna Kim) won the GPF and Sarah Meir who Kimmie out scored during the qualifiers came in third. Miki and Fumie fell off the podium altogether, so there is considerable fluidity here.

Yes the ice is slippery and anything can happen but Kimmie will be National Champion in 2007. Everyone is entitled to their opinion based on their perception of reality. I just find it hard to believe there are Americans who think Kimmie hasn't proven her present dominant position in American skating.

 

[chuckm]

I never said that Kimmie's best couldn't/shouldn't/wouldn't win. I said that any falls could cost her. She isn't dominate when you look at the big picture. I believe the US judges will be looking at the bigger picture. They always have. This should not be a newsflash to anyone who has followed skating.

When I see the big picture, I see that Kimmie is THE REIGNING WORLD CHAMPION and THE REIGNING US SILVER MEDALIST. She was the 2005 US bronze medalist, the 2004 JGPF bronze medalist, the 2004 US Junior Champion and 2004 World Junior Silver medalist, and the 2003 US Novice Champion. The judges know all that. They see a consistent, steadily improving performer, just as I do. And there is no other skater appearing at Senior Nationals this year who can compare to Kimmie when it comes to actual achievements on the ice. Not dominant? That is laughable.

Falls will cost ALL the skaters. But falling is not the worst error. It costs the skater 4 points, but if the jump is fully rotated, the skater still comes out ahead. What REALLY costs are popped and doubled or underrotated jumps, which can cause the skater to completely lose points for an element.

The fact is that Kimmie does not have a history of falling, popping or doubling jumps at major championships. She is an excellent competitor and comes into the big events thoroughly trained and ready. That is why she has won all those National and International medals.

 

[SusanBeth]

Let's hope she brings it all to Nationals. She will need it.

 

[R.D.]

But the fact is that Kimmie does not have a history of falling, popping or doubling jumps at major championships.

I agree that she is a steady performer but is it rather too soon to make this statement?

I can't remember whether Kimmie fell or not at 2005 Nats (she didn't qualify for 2005 Worlds but still went to Moscow on ESPN's ticket).

Kimmie did really well at 2006 Nats but did fall on a 2A at the end. We learned later she was fighting a cold.

Kimmie did not do so well at the Olympic Games, aborting BOTH of her planned 3-3's, with no 3A (but still placed well). In fact, this is probably her worst performance in all the big ones.

We all know what happened at 06 Worlds.

I don't count GP events because skaters often times don't give their best performance during that period.

Meissner is certainly the most consistent of the Americans. But maybe I feel at times she gets a little too MUCH credit as far as delivering counts. She is still very young and has a few skating years ahead of her. But I like what I see so far. She even has one of three major titles and that's likely to become two by this time next month. So the only title she'll be missing is the OGM.

 

[chuckm]

But Kimmie finished SIXTH at the Olympics, her first appearance at a Senior ISU Championship event. She was in the final group to skate. That in itself was an amazing accomplishment.

She's had the occasional fall, but popping or doubling is a highly unusual occurrence for her.

Kimmie has proven with her Olympic and World achievements that she is among the top tier of skaters in the WORLD. Of course she is dominant among the US competitors, because none of them has better competitive stats than Kimmie does.

 

[R.D.]

Let's hope she brings it all to Nationals. She will need it.

Applies to all the competitors

Only KM, in my honest opinion, can afford a mistake and not be totally out of it.

 

[chuckm]

Let's hope she brings it all to Nationals. She will need it.

She KNOWS that. And she is working hard to get ready.

 

[R.D.]

But Kimmie finished SIXTH at the Olympics, her first appearance at a Senior ISU Championship event. She was in the final group to skate. That in itself was an amazing accomplishment.

indeed. Like Cohen, her first major senior international event was the Olympics. (same with Hughes, I think?)

But then we can also make the argument that Hughes finished 7th, which is only one step down from 6th. If she can hold on to at least 5 of 6 jumps, I think she's top 10 material. Her past international results prove that. On second thoughts, maybe the US really isn't in as bad a shape as we think (we just like to win, win, medal and that's what Kwan and Cohen did for many years). The force that's really in trouble now is Russia.

Back to Meissner, I can't help but wonder whether ESPN's move to bring Kimmie to worlds helped her out. Will they do that again if say, this Rachel Flat sneaks in for 3rd place?

eta: at the end, though, we have to look at Kimmie's PERFORMANCES. I think maybe she's getting a little too MUCH credit for what she actually produces on the ice (but not her RESULTS/placements). I hope you get my point here- Kimmie's placements are rather decent. Her performances are good, too, but she's made a few mistakes herself as well (hence why she hasn't won). She has plenty of improvement to make as well. Let's see what she puts on the ice at Nats. I have no doubt that whatever it is, it will be enough to win.

 

[SeaniBu]

The fact is that Kimmie does not have a history of falling, popping or doubling jumps at major championships. She is an excellent competitor and comes into the big events thoroughly trained and ready. That is why she has won all those National and International medals.

I agree that she is a steady performer but is it rather too soon to make this statement?

By shear definition this is a valid comment. I see the point being made (looking into it), but history is based on what has happened so at this point in her history she does not have a "history" of the afore mentioned. Not a long history:agree: but a history none the less. I find it completely valid but in a "short history sense." Even if it has happened the fact that her career at this point in time is not associated with these is still what she has in her history.

 

[SusanBeth]

Has she ever skated as the favorite before? I mean even at Jr Nats .

 

[chuckm]

Yes, Hughes finished 7th at the Olympics, but then she slipped to 8th at Worlds, even with two of the top Olympic competitors missing, while Kimmie won the thing. In effect, Emily dropped 3 places, not one.

Since Worlds, Emily's skating has further declined, at least in the FS. She is the one who has the greatest problem with popping, doubling and underrotating triples. Scoring under 95 in a FS is not the way to get on the US podium.

 

[SeaniBu]

Can someone pls predict who's going to win in men's - Johnny or Evan?

To respect your request - I am probably not the one you are looking for this from But I like "The Stick" for this one and most. I am a fan of Johnny's, but in light of the recent injury and his comments about not training enough.... I see Evan (I am a slightly lager fan of) winning this if the two both turn in "clean" programs. I have a feeling Johnny will pop at least one. JMO.

 

[chuckm]

Has she ever skated as the favorite before? I mean even at Jr Nats .

What difference does it make? She is not Sasha, who could never deal with her nerves when skating at a major as the favorite. Even Sasha was able to win US Nationals last year as the favorite, nerves and all. Kimmie is a much cooler competitor and that has served her well throughout her career.

Kimmie was probably the favorite when she won Nationals as a Junior, since she came into the competition as the reigning Novice Champion. Didn't seem to bother her a bit.

 

[SeaniBu]

.... who could never deal with her nerves when skating at a major as the favorite.

Kimmie IMHO.

 

[R.D.]

Kimmie has proven with her Olympic and World achievements that she is among the top tier of skaters in the WORLD. Of course she is dominant among the US competitors, because none of them has better competitive stats than Kimmie does.

Yes, on paper. On the ice in a national setting where Kimmie will be competing DIRECTLY against all the other ladies in the US (out of the Kwan/Cohen shadow) it will be totally different. Also, for the first time Kimmie is in the driver's seat; she determines her own destiny here. Take home point: Kimmie is a promising skater who took advantage of an unusually weak field at Worlds (and a bad performance by the favorite) to set down an exclamation point, but she still has a long way to go before we can say she's a truly consistent, dominant competitor who can handle all kinds of pressure. Let's see how much of a fighter she is when she knows she's on top.

 

[SusanBeth]

What difference does it make?

Thanks for the info. Some people handle being the underdog better. It didn't seem to make any difference with Sasha, though she didn't have anything to do with my question.

 

[R.D.]

What difference does it make? She is not Sasha, who could never deal with her nerves when skating at a major as the favorite. Even Sasha was able to win US Nationals last year as the favorite, nerves and all. Kimmie is a much cooler competitor and that has served her well throughout her career.

Yes, but remember the main focus was still on Kwan's press conference. The competition was kind of "second-rate" in the eyes of many of the fans and the press. Now, there's no "big thing" for Kimmie to operate behind. She's out there, bare for everyone to see.

Then again, maybe without the big stars no one will care or give it much attention. It's not even in primetime any more.

 

[chuckm]

Kimmie won't KNOW she's on top until she is. Kimmie's focus has always been on skating her program the way it's supposed to be skated, not on how a competition is going to turn out. When she makes a mistake in a program, she will work on the cause until she is sure she has overcome the problem.

We saw that last year with her spins and spirals. She would have a problem with one or the other in the first competition, but would have worked out the kinks in the next. She didn't have her 3/3s ready for the Olympics, but she did for Worlds.

I don't think we'll see a 3A at Nationals because she saw what happened at TEB and doesn't want a repeat. Whatever other problems she had at TEB will have been dealt with during practices since then. That's the way she and her coach work it out.

 

[SeaniBu]

she determines her own destiny here.

Destiny is self controlled.

Take home point: Kimmie is a promising skater who took advantage of an unusually weak field at Worlds to set down an exclamation point, but she still has a long way to go before we can say she's a truly consistent, dominant competitor who can handle all kinds of pressure. Let's see how much of a fighter she is when she knows she's on top.

It is all about faith and feeling for me that she will shine, but you are 100% correct that this will be a "teller / speculation catalyst" and could possibly give insite to the future.

My Q is if she does shine, is she going to get credit / "props" or be deemed as "yah she did this time but what about the next." What is it going to say that she achieved one? IMO about as much as if she doesn't shine. Then the "learn from .." comes into mind. And the "she did it once so now it is more likely or less." Can this ever end as a perpetual Q? IOW, she has it or she doesn't and so far she shows she does. I am not at all reluctant to compare her to Mohamid Ali without the mouth. She has it and I am confident as others could be (don't underestimate the "power of positive energy") that she will show it. If there is a "break down" in this Nats it is - JMO as always, and taken lightly as it should be here - that it will not have anything to do with Kimmie's "nerves."

 

[R.D.]

Kimmie won't KNOW she's on top until she is. Kimmie's focus has always been on skating her program the way it's supposed to be skated, not on how a competition is going to turn out. When she makes a mistake in a program, she will work on the cause until she is sure she has overcome the problem.

We saw that last year with her spins and spirals. She would have a problem with one or the other in the first competition, but would have worked out the kinks in the next. She didn't have her 3/3s ready for the Olympics, but she did for Worlds.

I don't think we'll see a 3A at Nationals because she saw what happened at TEB and doesn't want a repeat. Whatever other problems she had at TEB will have been dealt with during practices since then. That's the way she and her coach work it out.

:yes: it's all in WORDS and SPECULATION. Let's see how the ACTIONS on the ice speak in a couple of weeks. :agree:

But Kimmie's saying she doesn't need the 3A (wondering if it's worth the risk) tells me, in some way or another, that she DOES know she has less competition here at Nats. But that's a smart competitor, not necessarily a conservative or a lazy one. In other words, I think she well knows that she can beat all the other skaters out there. At the same time, I hope she knows not to take it for granted (i.e. Cohen at 06 worlds).

The thing is, if you take out the 3A you might have to hit those 3-3's in order to seal the victory (read: 99% chance of winning). Less risk, but more at the same time.