2018-19 U.S. Men’s figure skating

[ice coverage]

Today's new Fan Zone article re Dolensky:

Timothy Dolensky Focuses on Love for Skating

10/1/2018 11:07:00 AM

by Jennifer Zeleski

https://usfigureskatingfanzone.com/...ses-on-love-for-skating.aspx?path=figureskate (Oct 1)
​

Nice for him to get additional attention on the heels of the recent Europe On Ice interview with him.

---

More stuff to chew on after this weekend.

I'm going to start with juniors today, because I first want to congratulate Camden Pulkinen for making his second Junior Grand Prix Final by placing 2nd in the JGP Czech Skate. He had a fantastic start in the SP, posting 81+ score, the second 80+ score among the U.S. Men so far this season. His free skate, however, was a bit of a struggle with issues on his 3As and a spin error at the end and he dropped from 1st to 2nd after a 5th place free skate. However, Camden continues to have the highest free skate score for now from his first event. I think Camden is developing nicely. He definitely can be a dark horse for top 6 in his nationals debut as a senior. …

Next weekend: Nathen Chen at Japan Open (his scores won't count, but we'll get an idea of his status), Alexander Johnson at Finlandia Trophy and Tomoki Hiwatashi at JGP Slovenia, where he'll be trying to nab a spot for JGPF! ...

Congratulations to Camden for qualifying for JGPF.

And good luck this week to Alex Johnson :luv17:, Tomoki, and Nathan. :yay:

… it will be up to the young guys like Camden, Alexi,Tommy H and Andrew T to rebuild that depth in the next couple of years.

Is "Tommy H" what the cool kids call Tomoki?? :shocked:

 

[Mrs. P]

Another weekend of competitions done!

Starting with juniors again to give Tomoki Hiwatashi a HUGE congrats on his silver medal at JGP Ljubljana Cup and a slot in his first JGPF! Tomoki's programs were delightful and I continue to be impressed by his growth both technically and in his overall skating and performance.

Alexander Johnson had some jump struggles at Finlandia Trophy, where he placed 15th. However, he has two very interesting programs and they are great to watch even with the mistakes. It's clear Alex is embracing the opportunities he has this year. He hinted in this recent article that this could be his last season -- so I'm hoping he'll make the most out of his competition opportunities this season.

Nathan Chen also had jump issues at Japan Open, where he placed 4th out of six skaters. However, I will chalk it up to early season/quick turnaround of traveling from Yale to Japan. Looking at his layout that he is planning on at least five quads (4Lo, 4Z, 4T(2), 4S). He could in theory opt to add a sixth decides to switch the 3F-3T to a 4F-3T. His score doesn't count toward ISU personal best, but his score of 144.96 is a hair above Jason Brown's ACI FS score of 144.33, and would be the second highest behind Camden Pulkinen's 147.80.

So at this point we have one more JGP event (Ryan Dunk is slated to skate in his second JGP while Nicholas Hsieh will make his season debut on the JGP after placing 3rd in juniors at the Asian Open trophy). But we are done with senior competitions until Skate America two weeks from now. So with that, here are some thoughts and some numbers. I will include Nathan Chen's score (and the TES/PCS breakdown) for comparison purposes with the caveat that Japan Open does not count in any ISU personal/season best lists.


At this point, nobody has a slam dunk to a world team spot. Everyone is still looking pretty rough at this point in the season.
- Jason Brown currently has the highest overall and short program score, but his free skate is very much a work in progress and it's clear that some of the consistency we've seen in the past will likely be MIA as he's getting used TCC's jumping technique (not to mention trying to FINALLY get that quad, this time a salchow, in place).
- Nathan Chen has the most ambitious layout with 5-quads that easily could go to six if he is so inclined. It's obviously a high-risk, high-reward layout because as we saw at Japan Open if he misses the quads, it could be costly. He has only one 3A planned and a 3F-3T combo planned. It remains to be seen whether he can make Ivy League and skating work. Like Jason, Nathan's transition might mean Nathan peaking later in the season.
- Vincent Zhou did an interesting thing at U.S. Classic. He had three quads planned (4Z,4S and 4T). He switched the 4T into a 3A combo. Given that he has been injured, we may see him scale back and focus on the 4Z and 4S, which has historically been his two more consistent quads. Injury has hampered him in the past, but he always seem to recover and peak when it counts (see 2017 and 2018 Nationals and Jr. Worlds/Olympics for reference). URs do seem problematic at this point in the season.
- I would say that we could see a junior or a young senior could upset the apple cart. Camden Pulkinen currently has the highest FS score of ALL the men and his 3As are amazing, which has allowed him time to work on the quad until it's ready for competition. Tomoki Hiwatashi has become much more consistent on his 4T/3A jumps but he still needs to clean up some jumps, he struggled with the 3Z-1L-3F combo at both his JGPs. Andrew Torgashev looks good to make another JGPF, but he's not completely soup yet. Alexei Krasnozhon, who looked ready to go senior last year, is also dealing with returning from an unfortunate injury at junior Worlds. Still, I think it's possible one of these four could end up top 3 and head to senior Worlds. It will be again a tight battle for junior worlds spots if none of the four end up getting post-national senior assignments.
- Jimmy Ma was a surprise medalist during the challenger series and sadly our only medalist. Ma certainly made his case that he deserved that Skate America invite. His jumps through the 3A look good, but his quad is not soup yet. I'm not sure whether he's even a dark horse for a world team spot, but I think he has a good shot at a dramatic rise in the standings come U.S. nationals.
- And then we have the veterans of our senior men: Timothy Dolensky, Alexander Johnson, Sean Rabbit. All three have enjoyable programs. I'm not sure if I see any of them rising to the podium, but we could see one of them end up in the top 6. Both Timothy and Sean competed with "watered down" programs at their events. Alexander Johnson has said he will not attempt a quad and focus on his current jump arsenal -- which may seem like a big ask given his jump issues at Finlandia.

I expect that we'll see a lot of changes in the next few months and that the standings will become more clear. For now, it's time for the senior men to get back to work and ready for the GP/Late Challenger Series events.

And the numbers (for senior men at nationals)

Overall:
Brown 233.23
Pulkinen: 222.95
Hiwatashi: 215.16
Dolensky: 209.02
Ma: 206.1
Zhou: 204.62
---
Torgashev: 201.63
Rabbit: 196.83
Krasnozhon: 194.10
Dunk: 188.91
Johnson: 178.03

SP:
Brown: 88.90
Pulkinen: 81.01
Hiwatashi: 76.81
Ma: 73.21
Dolensky: 71.06
Rabbit: 70.98
---
Torgeshev: 69.39
Krasnozhon: 67.32
Dunk 63.08
Zhou: 61.72
Johnson: 59.42

SP TES
Pulkinen: 44.98
Brown: 44.80
Hiwatashi: 42.02
Ma: 39.41
Dolensky: 37.61
Rabbit: 36.28
--
Torgashev: 35.04
Krasnozhon: 33.27
Dunk: 31.19
Zhou: 25.02
Johnson: 23.24

SP PCS
Brown: 44.10
Zhou: 37.70
Johnson: 37.18
Dolensky: 36.10
Pulkinen: 36.03
Ma: 35.80
---
Torgashev: 35.35
Hiwatashi: 34.79
Rabbit: 34.70
Krasnozhon: 34.05
Dunk: 31.89

FS:
Pulkinen: 147.80
(Chen: 144.90)
Brown: 144.33
Zhou: 142.90
Dolensky: 141.22
Hiwatashi: 140.99
---
Ma: 132.89
Torgashev: 132.24
Krasnozhon: 126.78
Dunk: 125.83
Rabbit: 124.85
Johnson: 118.61

FS TES:
Pulkinen: 72.16
Hiwatashi: 71.51
Zhou: 69.60
Dolensky: 68.82
Ma: 66.79
(Chen: 66.32)
---
Torgashev: 63.04
Dunk: 61.17
Brown: 60.63
Krasnozhon: 59.68
Rabbit: 57.65
Johnson: 49.35

FS PCS
Brown: 83.70
(Chen: 82.64)
Pulkinen: 75.16
Zhou: 74.30
Dolensky: 72.40
Hiwatashi: 70.56
--
Torgashev: 70.20
Johnson: 69.26
Rabbit: 67.20
Krasnozhon: 67.10
Ma: 66.10
Dunk: 64.66

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

It seems like Nathan isn't going to be able to keep that many different quads in competitive shape while in college. Maybe he'd be better off training only two, like the 4Lz and the 4T, and focusing on accruing additional points with well-executed triples. That would be enough to keep him with the top group of men internationally, whereas programs with four pops/falls could result in him not even making the world team.

 

[Mrs. P]

It seems like Nathan isn't going to be able to keep that many different quads in competitive shape while in college. Maybe he'd be better off training only two, like the 4Lz and the 4T, and focusing on accruing additional points with well-executed triples. That would be enough to keep him with the top group of men internationally, whereas programs with four pops/falls could result in him not even making the world team.

I'd like to see Nathan at Skate America first before I make any definitive judgments regarding his ability to balance school/skating. I chalk early season/jet lag for his performance at JO. But you do have a point that he may be prudent to do two really good quads well (i.e. three of them in the FS) -- just looking at early days there really isn't anyone that is even going for 5-6 quads under the shorter FS format anyway.

 

[century2009]

It looks like for Nathan the JO was testing his layout as it wasnt a competition (and really a show tbf) and he didnt prepare as usual compared to a real competition.

Would like to see Skate America but lets see how all the men do in the start of the Grand Prix because now they all got these bad performances out. I hope all of them figure out the right direction given the 4 min LP, which is tough.

Lets see if Nathan can balance school and skating because it is very tough, and this program is the most difficult program (it will set a record), so can he do it?

It is a very ambitious and insane program within 4 mins with 5-6 quads. You really need the stamina to do this. And it was very impressive last year to have the energy and capability to do 6 quads in 1 program. I still dont know how he did that.

He would continue to be unstoppable if he hits 5-6 quads like last year. And there is no skater, old or new, that can match that. Very high risk and very high reward.

He is capable of doing it, but needs time to adjust to it like his previous senior season where he was working out the kinks and not performing well in the beginning of the season for his FP.

We know he can probably hit this 5-6 quad program. But I dont know if it is worth the risk now in the beginning?

At most, the other men are just doing 3 quads, so he probably just need 4 quads to win at this start of the season.

All his competitors are struggling at the start of the season and having simple layouts, so dont think he needs it now. And maybe a good idea given he is balancing skating and school.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

He would continue to be unstoppable if he hits 5-6 quads like last year. And there is no skater, old or new, that can match that. Very high risk and very high reward.

He is capable of doing it, but needs time to adjust to it like his previous senior season where he was working out the kinks and not performing well in the beginning of the season for his FP.

I don't think he'd need to take that kind of risk in order to medal anywhere, except Worlds or the GPF. The new system helps skaters who can produce high quality triples, so it's a bigger gamble now to replace a triple jumping pass you could execute perfectly with a quad that is iffy. Alina's 3Lz-3T, or her 3Lz-3Lo, would have been the highest scoring element in Nathan's program. Nathan's 4Lz with < and a fall (4.31 - 1.0 fall deduction = 3.31) earned fewer points than Jeremy's 2Lz-2T. He may skate better as the season progresses, but at most events he will be taking far more risk than necessary if he keeps this layout.

 

[chuckm]

Look at Kolyada's WINNING layout from Finlandia:

4t, 3z, 3a, 3s+2t, 3t, 2lo, 3z+1eu+2s Then look at the SCORE: :shocked: 165.38 75.10 90.28 9.00 8.96 8.88 9.13 9.17

Some of the juniors are doing programs equal to or harder than that!!

 

[century2009]

I don't think he'd need to take that kind of risk in order to medal anywhere, except Worlds or the GPF. The new system helps skaters who can produce high quality triples, so it's a bigger gamble now to replace a triple jumping pass you could execute perfectly with a quad that is iffy. Alina's 3Lz-3T, or her 3Lz-3Lo, would have been the highest scoring element in Nathan's program. Nathan's 4Lz with < and a fall (4.31 - 1.0 fall deduction = 3.31) earned fewer points than Jeremy's 2Lz-2T. He may skate better as the season progresses, but at most events he will be taking far more risk than necessary if he keeps this layout.

There is some risk not worth it, and I agree but do you think Nathan will just settle to do triples at the other events?

At the US National, he doesnt even need 5 quads, and probably only need 2 at most and still went crazy. Even at Worlds, he doesnt need 6 quads and can win with triples.

He can do all 5 quads, and have received high +GOEs for all of them. Him jumping the 4Lz like usual will receive 10 points higher.

If you can jump quads, would you settle for triples? And not do quads?

If you can jump all 5 different types of quads and do it well when no one else can do it, would you just do 2?

If Alina, can do a quad, do you think she would just settle with triples layout, and not risk it?

At both Skate America and France, he does not have much competition. I mean none of his competitors in both of these events have much of a layout, so if they all do poorly, he can try his layout with caution.

If they do well, he probably just need 2 quads.

But Nathan does need to practice the layout, and get a comfortable place with it. Like he seems to do in previous season.

 

[century2009]

On a shallow note, i dont like Nathans costume and his long hair. I know he is the type of person who doesnt really care.

But can someone suggest to him to cut his hair a bit or if he plans to have it long to tie it back. It is not a good look for him.

And I hope he is still working on his costume and this is not final.

 

[oatmella]

I don’t think Nathan’s costume is final. And he mentioned before that he might be getting Vera costumes later in the season - if she has time

 

[princessalica]

I thought that his outfit looked like something he’d wear in practice. I doubt it’s the real deal.

 

[StitchMonkey]

On a shallow note, i dont like Nathans costume and his long hair. I know he is the type of person who doesnt really care.

But can someone suggest to him to cut his hair a bit or if he plans to have it long to tie it back. It is not a good look for him.

Well the US Men are short a pony tail... may the saga begin anew!

 

[bennorii]

The following men have been assigned to Golden Bear in Zagreb (October 23-28):

Adv. novice
Ilia Malinin (Gold at Novice Challenge Skate)

Junior
Matthew Nielsen (Silver at Novice Challenge Skate)

 

[Noxchild]

Please, no more Veras!

 

[Skater Boy]

On a shallow note, i dont like Nathans costume and his long hair. I know he is the type of person who doesnt really care.

But can someone suggest to him to cut his hair a bit or if he plans to have it long to tie it back. It is not a good look for him.

And I hope he is still working on his costume and this is not final.

Huh? What do you want him to do with his hair - have multiple mini pig tails? His hair isn't that long. It isn't even a bob. I suppose he could wear a hair band of some sort.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

But Nathan does need to practice the layout, and get a comfortable place with it. Like he seems to do in previous season.

Maybe you're right. But there are additional risks besides having a bomb of a program. Training more quads increases the likelihood of injuries, as we saw with Yuzuru. It also might be easier to perfect 2 different quads rather than 4 or 5; Meghan D (pairs) had a great lutz, but she might not have been as solid if she also had to train the flip, loop, and toe. Aesthetically, I don't think that many quads make for a good program because of the long jump set-ups. We accept it because of the difficulty, but if they aren't executed well it makes for an empty, uninteresting program (although, inexplicably, the PCS marks don't always reflect that). I'd like to see Nathan preserve his body and stay healthy so he can peak in Beijing, so whatever he needs to do to make that happen would be fine by me.

 

[century2009]

I agree about the risk so I was very surprised (and impressed) that after his major injury in 2016 which left him off the ice for 6 month, he added to his quads with a 4Lz and 4Flip, which are the hardest of the quads, and then perfected his programs as the season progressed to the point of 5 quads in 1 program, then 6 quads in the following season.

And now this year, instead of dialing it back with school, he added back the 4Loop, which he doesnt need at this point with everyone struggling.

And to be fair with him, all his quads are done very well with high GOEs. He can actually do them all well as we have seen.

I just dont understand his strategy this year. Yale is not easy and doing that, competing under a new system, new programs, and more quads --- is a lot.

But as he mentioned, he is using this year to test what he can do and cant, and adjust things. So maybe that is why he picked JO as his 1st one because it isnt a competition, and can see what is working and not for his programs. (To be fair, with everyone struggling, he could also pick any of the challengers, and wouldnt make a difference)

I assume he might dial it back in Skate America and France because he is in school now and Skate America is next week, and the 1st Senior Grand Prix of the season.

I hope he doesnt struggle too much in Skate America as we work out these kinks, but cant see him at his peak. And maybe that is fine given there really is no competition for him. And can win with 2 quads. But lets see what he changes to do well in Skate America.

 

[Skater Boy]

Well the US Men are short a pony tail... may the saga begin anew!

The correct fashion term for a male pony tail is an attitude. I don't think Nathan has enough attitude Another 3 inches at least unless he wants an attitude that looks like a unicorn?

 

[Skater Boy]

I don’t think Nathan’s costume is final. And he mentioned before that he might be getting Vera costumes later in the season - if she has time

How difficult is it to say to one of her minions (Ie come her Evan on your hands and knees now I order you make a black unitard and add a white stripe down one side!!!! Just saying...

 

[Ice Dance]

And now this year, instead of dialing it back with school, he added back the 4Loop, which he doesnt need at this point with everyone struggling.

Might want to be able to defeat Gogolev or his ilk in 4 years. You can't just wait around and think you are going to be able to add new jumps late in your career. The athletes that do get jumps late are by far the exception rather than the rule.

It seems quite likely that Nathan is experimenting with his layout here early in the season. (When is Nathan not experimenting with his jump layout?)

College full-time. It's a huge undertaking. I don't think anyone can know what it's like until he/she gets there. (Often athletes seem to find out at Skate Americahwell. I guess I feel that it is good that he is making this attempt. Going to school. Continuing to skate. He may ultimately need to reprioritize (in either direction); but at least he will be making an educated decision when/if he does.