- Joined
- Feb 25, 2014
I think that is premature. If anything, they're fairly matched for #2.
2018-19 U.S. Men’s figure skating
- Thread starter Mrs. P
- Start date
I think that is premature. If anything, they're fairly matched for #2.
Lots of threats, or as I want to call it competition. Which is good for all of them. I’m very happy for Tomoki skating so well at 4CC.
Jason with his team has a plan. If it works or not time will tell. I’m not counting him out for next olympics.
There's no clear #2 right now, but it's great that it appears that the guys are really stepping up. 
--Vincent was still called for a few URs in the FS, but got his 4Lz and both 3As called rotated.
--Jason finally did not pop his 4S and held it together pretty well for the rest of the program.
--Tomoki skated great and appears ready to move up to seniors. He's certainly a threat for Junior Worlds.
--Vincent was still called for a few URs in the FS, but got his 4Lz and both 3As called rotated.
--Jason finally did not pop his 4S and held it together pretty well for the rest of the program.
--Tomoki skated great and appears ready to move up to seniors. He's certainly a threat for Junior Worlds.
- Joined
- Dec 21, 2014
I would rank them pretty evenly. Vincent may have won a medal at 4CC but Jason beat him in the free. And if the tech panel hadn’t been taking a nap during the SP they would have been closer there too. Vincent’s curse is URs, Jason’s is the quad. I think they are both capable of improving and are both wonderful in their own way. But I would not say Vincent has pulled away- the judging here and at Nationals was relatively generous all around. I want to see how Vincent does in Japan. (And I will sell my soul for Jason to land the quad).
There is a lot of young talent which is great- the sport needs new faces and new competition. It also pushes the established skaters to keep improving.
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- Mar 15, 2018
At the moment, it feels like Vincent is #2 because with the 2 competition of National and 4cc. He has beaten Jason as they go head to head, but it is not a major lead over Jason, so Jason can go over him if he get this quad in order.
Worlds will tell more, but if Vincent does not have a meltdown, he will probably be ahead of Jason even with Vincent's few underrotation.
I dont think Jason will try the 4S again at Worlds because of the risk of the spot. But then, if his other peers do their new quads, he might be buried in the standing.
Both will be battle for #2 and by next year, we can see if they have made any improvement.
Jason is playing safe, while Vincent is not. But it looks like the risk is working at the moment.
Worlds will tell more, but if Vincent does not have a meltdown, he will probably be ahead of Jason even with Vincent's few underrotation.
I dont think Jason will try the 4S again at Worlds because of the risk of the spot. But then, if his other peers do their new quads, he might be buried in the standing.
Both will be battle for #2 and by next year, we can see if they have made any improvement.
Jason is playing safe, while Vincent is not. But it looks like the risk is working at the moment.
Right now Jason's spot in the top 3 in the US is not in danger but if the younger guys coming up start landing quads and improving their all around skills he may be in danger by the time 2022 rolls around. He'll be 27 and if he doesn't get a quad soon he won't ever get one.
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
Vincent's potential is there, and even with URs his tech is monstrously ahead of Jason (who still struggles with his 3A). Obviously artistically, Brown is miles ahead of Zhou, but all things considered, I'd (currently) wager my money on Zhou more than Brown to deliver (albeit only slightly).
It's a broken record but Brown needs to get his quad. I'm glad he's finally putting it out there, but the game has changed so much. As much as Zhou URs, at least he's trying to up his technical game (and even seeing some success)... now Brown's got to do the same. Jason's skating will always be special and unmatched by most of the field, but it's unfortunately not enough if we're talking competitiveness.
It's a broken record but Brown needs to get his quad. I'm glad he's finally putting it out there, but the game has changed so much. As much as Zhou URs, at least he's trying to up his technical game (and even seeing some success)... now Brown's got to do the same. Jason's skating will always be special and unmatched by most of the field, but it's unfortunately not enough if we're talking competitiveness.
I'd give Jason another year with coaching change. If by next year no consistent quad, at least one, then it think it doesn't bode well for him. Nathan is going to be top 3 at Worlds so the second best US skater has to be at least 8 which is viable. I think Vincent has a better chance of being that person.
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2013
This is fair. It is a close call, but edge to Vincent right now. If, however, Vincent gets his UR issue fixed, and he appears to be very determined, it's game over. Jason simply doesn't have the firepower, and pretty skating can only score so high. That situation is fine with me. I've quit fixating over Jason and quad, so I have been able to fully appreciate the qualities that he has. Will I enjoy his skating? Absolutely. Is a World Medal contender? No, but there are other things in life.
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- Nov 20, 2015
Yeah, and with so many younger skaters nipping at his heels, he has to improve his tech or he will be taken over. We've got a really strong junior/B team - We are missing the Ross, Grant, Max, and Adam now that were vying for those podium and just off podium positions, but now that they've moved on we have Tomoki, Alex, Camden, and Andrew that are all pushing to move up and make their names. They clearly aren't up there with Nathan yet, or even Vincent or Jason, but they are coming.
- Joined
- Feb 10, 2014
IMO, at this point, Vincent’s < are affecting his scoring potential as much as Jason’s lack of a quad. I’d say both skaters are trying to up their tech content, not just Vincent, and both have been attempting to fix their respective problems for awhile. At this competition, two unusual things happened in the SP: Jason fell on his 3A, which he usually doesn’t, and Vincent wasn’t called for any <, which he usually is (and which a lot of people feel he should have been here). Since their FS scores were virtually identical, it’s what happened in the SP that impacted their relative placements. Basically, unless Vincent is able to consistently rotate most or all of his jumps, or judging panels decide to be consistently lenient, I’m not sure he has any advantage over Jason. JMO.
- Joined
- Dec 21, 2014
Between Vincent and Jason their placement depends entirely on the tech panel. If Jason has scored what he did at IDF he would have been very close to Vincent’s score even with Vincent having quads. A clean Jason beats Vincent with a hard tech panel but if the tech panel is lenient Vincent has a slight edge based on TES alone.
I am most interested to see how both improve over the next year. I think they are both really motivated which is exciting.
I am most interested to see how both improve over the next year. I think they are both really motivated which is exciting.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
To me, the math is all on Vincent's side. Even if Vincent under-rotated all of his quads all the time, he would still have the edge in base value over a skater with just triples. 4F< and 4Lz< both have higher base values than a triple Axel. Each of 4T< and 4S is more than a full point ahead of 3Lz.
Base value isn't everything ... but to misquote Vince Lombardy, it's the first thing.
I tend to look at the historical context. In the period 2014-2016 the USA's best men skaters were Jeremy Abbott (2014), Jason Brown (2015) and Adam Rippon (2016). Making a virtue of necessity, the mantra of US figure skating fans was, "quads aren't everything." Yet the 2014 world podium was Fernandez (2 quads in the short, 2 more in the long), Hanyu (2 quads in the short, 2 more in the long) and Jin (2 quads in the short and 4 :eeking: in the long).
Yes, US men produced some sublime skating during this period and won a couple of battles. But they lost the war. As it turned out, quads were everything.*
The Nathan Chen era began in 2017, which switched up the equation for US men.
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* The two US champions that preceded the artistic trio of Abbott, Brown and Rippon, did have reliable quad arsenals for their time, but for some reason were not highly regarded internationally. Ryan Bradley, US champion in 2011, had 2 quads and two triple Axels in his LP. But he was esteemed more as a crowd-pleasing entertainer
than as a soulful artiste.Max Aaron (2013) could quad along with the best of them, and he worked hard on the presentation side, but for some reason never caught a break.
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- Joined
- Feb 10, 2014
To me, the math is all on Vincent's side. Even if Vincent under-rotated all of his quads all the time, he would still have the edge in base value over a skater with just triples. 4F< and 4Lz< both have higher base values than a triple Axel. Each of 4T< and 4S is more than a full point ahead of 3Lz.
Base value isn't everything ... but to misquote Vince Lombardy, it's the first thing.
I tend to look at the historical context. In the period 2014-2016 the USA's best men skaters were Jeremy Abbott (2014), Jason Brown (2015) and Adam Rippon (2016). Making a virtue of necessity, the mantra of US figure skating fans was, "quads aren't everything." Yet the 2014 world podium was Fernandez (2 quads in the short, 2 more in the long), Hanyu (2 quads in the short, 2 more in the long) and Jin (2 quads in the short and 4 :eeking: in the long).
Yes, US men produced some sublime skating during this period and won a couple of battles. But they lost the war. As it turned out, quads were everything.*
The Nathan Chen era began in 2017, which switched up the equation for US men.
--------------
* The two US champions that preceded the artistic trio of Abbott, Brown and Rippon, did have reliable quad arsenals for their time, but for some reason were not highly regarded internationally. Ryan Bradley, US champion in 2011, had 2 quads and two triple Axels in his LP. But he was esteemed more as a crowd-pleasing entertainer
Max Aaron (2013) could quad along with the best of them, and he worked hard on the presentation side, but for some reason never caught a break.
Errmmm. Not only is base value not everything, it’s not the same in 2018 as it was between 2013-2017, remember? Nor is GOE the same, nor is the standard for an under rotation call. No one thinks Jason at his best without a quad can compete with Nathan, Hanyu, or Shoma under most circumstances. But it’s because those guys usually get great GOE and PCS in addition to having high base value programs. As to Vincent, take a look at his scores this season prior to Nats - they were quite low. Time will tell whether Four Continents marks a turning point for him.
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2013
To me, the math is all on Vincent's side. Even if Vincent under-rotated all of his quads all the time, he would still have the edge in base value over a skater with just triples. 4F< and 4Lz< both have higher base values than a triple Axel. Each of 4T< and 4S is more than a full point ahead of 3Lz.
Base value isn't everything ... but to misquote Vince Lombardy, it's the first thing.
I tend to look at the historical context. In the period 2014-2016 the USA's best men skaters were Jeremy Abbott (2014), Jason Brown (2015) and Adam Rippon (2016). Making a virtue of necessity, the mantra of US figure skating fans was, "quads aren't everything." Yet the 2014 world podium was Fernandez (2 quads in the short, 2 more in the long), Hanyu (2 quads in the short, 2 more in the long) and Jin (2 quads in the short and 4 :eeking: in the long).
Yes, US men produced some sublime skating during this period and won a couple of battles. But they lost the war. As it turned out, quads were everything.*
The Nathan Chen era began in 2017, which switched up the equation for US men.
--------------
* The two US champions that preceded the artistic trio of Abbott, Brown and Rippon, did have reliable quad arsenals for their time, but for some reason were not highly regarded internationally. Ryan Bradley, US champion in 2011, had 2 quads and two triple Axels in his LP. But he was esteemed more as a crowd-pleasing entertainer
Max Aaron (2013) could quad along with the best of them, and he worked hard on the presentation side, but for some reason never caught a break.
Exactly. I'm not saying Vincent is a better skater than Jason - that's in the eye of the beholder.
But I do think Vincent is a better-scoring skater than Jason - and potentially by a lot.
Team Jason will say he's working hard towards getting at least one quad. I hope he makes it.
Team Vincent will say that he's working hard to square up more of his jumps, which would extend his advantage. I hope he makes it, too.
The optimal outcome is that everyone skates to the very best of their potential and leaves the math to the panels.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
Well, I was using the 2018-2019 scale of values in noting that an under-rotated 4Lz (8.63) or an under-rotated 4F (8.25) had higher base value than a fully rotated triple Axel (8.00), etc.
As for "quads are everything," OK, I'll back off to my Vince Lombardy misquote: "quads are the first thing." After you establish your base value, sure, then you can gain some extra points for GOE and PCS. But the skaters with multiple quads are starting their climb half-way up the hill, while the others must start lower and pull harder.
I did look up Vincent's earlier results this year. I don't see anything that goes contrary to the view that if you do a bunch or quads, even if they are under-rotated, you still start with an advantage.
At NHK Vincent did 4S< and 4Lz< (plus a completely popped 4Lz attempt -- no, no, Vincent, that's the one thing you can't do), in the LP and still had the second highest base value (to Uno, with 4 quads).
At Skate America Vincent had three under-rotations on quad elements, plus a pop, still got second in base value (to Nathan with 3 quads).
I just think that the things Vincent needs to work on are within his capabilities going forward.
Perhaps, but I think you're are underestimating how much of an issue it's has been compared to Jason's quad/3A troubles. Vincent has had URs for his quads dating back all the way to when he returned to skating as a junior man post-injury in the 2015-2016.
He's had competitions where there was a favorable tech panel and he managed to get away with fewer underrotations, but in general, the under rotations are not a new problem and Vincent has been working on it for several seasons, just as Jason has struggled with the quad for several seasons.
I just added the four continents data and here's how they breakdown ATM.
season's best
Overall: Vincent (2-272.22); Jason (3-263.42)
SP overall: Vincent (1-100.18); Jason (2- 96.41)
SP TES: Vincent (1- 57.93); Jason (2- 50.69)
SP PCS: Jason (2 -45.75); Vincent (3-42.25)
FS overall: Jason (2-172.32); Vincent (3 -172.04)
FS TES: Vincent (2 -88.56); Jason (3 -82.46)
FS PCS: Jason (2 -89.86); Vincent (3-83.48)
Overall SB average: Jason (2.14) Vincent (2.14)
averages
Overall: Jason (2 -249.37); Vincent (3-232.05)
SP overall: Jason (2-88.77); Vincent (3-78.33)
SP TES: Jason (2 -44.31); Vincent (4-39.65)
SP PCS: Jason (1-44.52); Vincent (3-39.07)
FS overall: Jason (2- 160.60); Vincent (3-153.72)
FS TES: Vincent (2- 76.06); Jason (3-73.21)
FS PCS: Jason (2-87.39); Vincent (3 77.87)
Overall ranking average: Jason (2.00); Vincent (3.00)
The numbers don't lie. There isn't a clear #2. We can talk all day about *potentially* who could run away from it, but right now, as far as the numbers go there isn't a clear No. 2.
Now if you want to argue that Vincent has beat Jason at their head-to-heads this season and gives a case he is starting to pull away, then that's a valid argument, however, I don't think 4CC in the first season of a four-year Olympic cycle isn't always a great indicator of how Worlds will go or the overall trajectory of the next four years.
I mean at 2015 4CC, Joshua Farris won silver and Jason was 6th, but then Jason was 4th at Worlds and Josh was 11th. And sadly we all know what happened with Josh after that season.
And the only person from that world team who ended up in the Olympics was Adam, who finished 8th at Worlds that year.
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- Joined
- Feb 10, 2014
Your argument kind of keeps morphing, though. And your comparisons were to results achieved under pre-2018 scoring.
Seriously, at Skate America, whether or not Vincent had the second highest base value, he scored 225.75 - more than 50 points behind Nathan - and placed fifth overall. His results were similar at NHK. That level of scoring - which is ultimately the decisive factor in where you place - is easily achievable without attempting quads.
I don’t disagree that a multi quad FS is a huge advantage if you fully rotate all your jumps or maybe have only one fall or < or wonky landing on a quad. In those situations it does give you a cushion that’s harder for other skaters to overcome.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
It does, it does.
I really don't know what is going to happen.And your comparisons were to results achieved under pre-2018 scoring.
To me, it is the whole back and forth quad thing and the ISU's conflicted responses that is most interesting. When the IJS was first proposed in 2002, they did some mock scoring and Tim Goebel ended up winning the 2002 Olympics over Alexei Yagudin and Evgeni Plushenko. Well, the ISU reasoned, obviously this scale is rating quads too highly, we better cut it down.
In 2010 Evan Lysacek beat Plushenko with no quad. Well, that will never do, we'd better increase the relative value of quads. So it went back and forth. In the latest change (the enhanced GOE range, etc.) the ISU thought that it was time to swing the pendulum back the other way -- not so heavy on quads and give more weight to quality.
It is the same with other aspects of the IJS. In 2014, Yuzuru Hanyu won with two falls in the LP. following several years when Patrick Chan won multiple titles while falling. The ISU increased the penalties for a fall.
What about under-rotations? One year they are hit with draconian penalties, then in the next revision of the rules they swing back the other way. (Actually, I think the current rules for scoring under-rotatoions and wrong edge take-offs are a nice compromise.)
The main point that I was hoping to make is, this is not an issue of who do you like better, Jason Brown or Vincent Zhou. It is the color provided by historical context that is most fascinating to me. What will the next set of rules, due out in 2020, bring? Or will they wait until after 2022 to make any substantive revisions?
So that is my fully morphed story, and I'm sticking with it.
- Joined
- Feb 10, 2014
It does, it does.
To me, it is the whole back and forth quad thing and the ISU's conflicted responses that is most interesting. When the IJS was first proposed in 2002, they did some mock scoring and Tim Goebel ended up winning the 2002 Olympics over Alexei Yagudin and Evgeni Plushenko. Well, the ISU reasoned, obviously this scale is rating quads too highly, we better cut it down.
In 2010 Evan Lysacek beat Plushenko with no quad. Well, that will never do, we'd better increase the relative value of quads. So it went back and forth. In the latest change (the enhanced GOE range, etc.) the ISU thought that it was time to swing the pendulum back the other way -- not so heavy on quads and give more weight to quality.
It is the same with other aspects of the IJS. In 2014, Yuzuru Hanyu won with two falls in the LP. following several years when Patrick Chan won multiple titles while falling. The ISU increased the penalties for a fall.
What about under-rotations? One year they are hit with draconian penalties, then in the next revision of the rules they swing back the other way. (Actually, I think the current rules for scoring under-rotatoions and wrong edge take-offs are a nice compromise.)
The main point that I was hoping to make is, this is not an issue of who do you like better, Jason Brown or Vincent Zhou. It is the color provided by historical context that is most fascinating to me. What will the next set of rules, due out in 2020, bring? Or will they wait until after 2022 to make any substantive revisions?
So that is my fully morphed story, and I'm sticking with it.
Well...as to timing, don’t they usually adopt substantive changes at the beginning of an Olympic cycle? I could be wrong, but I thought the idea was that it isn’t fair to make changes in the middle of the quad because people need time to adapt.
As to the kind of changes they make, I personally don’t think it’s so much an attempt to halt a particular skater’s success as to shape figure skating into some ideal balance between the athletic and the aesthetic. And I think in the current iteration it’s worked - look how hard Nathan has worked on improving his presentation. I think he’s a much more interesting skater as a result.
For me the issue is in inconsistent judging and tech calls rather than in the rules. The way PCS and GOE are awarded sometimes seems arbitrary rather than based on the actual performance. Obviously, part of that is subjective - we don’t all agree on what’s beautifully or poorly executed or the definitions of “fast,” “great height and distance,” “musical,” etc. But I sometimes wonder how much guidance judges are actually getting on how to evaluate these things.
Similarly, I’m curious about the apparent discrepancy in the 4CC tech panel’s calling of under rotations between the men’s short and long programs. In the SP, only 13 under rotations were called for 25 men (on average about 1/2 < per person), and only three of those men were in the top ten. In the free skate, 31 under rotations were called for 24 men (on average more than 1 < per person), and 13 of those were on 5 men in the top ten. Was that an accurate reflection of the actual skating in those two programs or a function of the fact that guys do more jumps in the FS, or was the tech panel overly lenient in the short (or overly harsh in the free)? Hard to say, but I do wonder about it.
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