How will the 'best skaters' who have never won a World medal fare this year?

[slutskayafan21]

Delobel/Schoenfeldner are not even certain to stay in until 2010, let alone medal. They are not locked into anything, if they stay until 2010 they are a possible medalist, but far from secure. They have been on the scene for years, and solidly in contention the last 3 years, and they still have yet to crack the World podium. They are going to have a challenge ahead of them to hold off the younger teams like the Russians and Canadians in the coming seasons if they stay.

Domnina/Shabalin may seem secure as a top 3 dance team heading to 2010, especialy with the Russian federation behind them. However alot of people thought they were a shoo-in for a silver or gold at Worlds, and they ended up 5th. I agree they are good position going forward but I wouldnt be so bold as to state they are in a secure position just yet.

Belbin/Agosto seemingly got back on track with a medal at Worlds, after a trying season, and they are top ranked team in the World now with the Bulgarians and Dubreuil/Lauzon out. However they are still potentialy vurnerable until they show they can come up with programs that showcase their greatest strengths and that work for them, which they have struggled with of late. Even they I would not put into a secure position for 2010 just yet.

Moir/Virtue are younger then all these teams, even though Domnina/Shabalin and Belbin/Agosto are quite young too, Moir/Virtue and Davis/White for example are that much younger. It is premature to pencil them into a medal, let alone a gold medal for 2010, but it is definitely premature to pencil in the 3 teams all ranked above them now as shutting them out, especialy a team like the French. I would have to say the French look like the most likely target for them to knock off, if they even make it to 2010, but none of these teams are completey secure for 2010 at this point. Moir/Virtue and Davis/White have hopes going forward.

I can gaurantee you all these teams will have noticed the rapid improvement of the skating abilty and scores and placements of both Moir/Virtue and Davis/White. These teams are all wary of them, I gaurantee it. There is no reason to just assume they are automaticaly going to stall now that they reached just behind the big teams, the big teams are going to have their work cut out for them to stop these fast rising up and comers.

 

[GoldMedalist]

The younger teams were 10+ points behind the current top 3 at this past Worlds - a massive amount to make up. Maybe the current top 3 wont improve at all (or, for the French, not keep competing) while the younger teams continue to get better, but I don't see that as being the most probable scenario.

 

[JonnyCoop]

My take on this, on a case-by-case basis:

Deloebel & Schoenfelder: This has GOT to be their year to make the podium, with Denk/Stav & Dubr/Lauz out. IMHO, this team has been consistently cheated by the judges for the last couple of seasons and I'm shocked that they were able to win Euros given how they seem to get short-changed all the time. I am expecting, however, that Domnina & Shabalin will probably finish ahead of them. Which is another issue entirely.

Weir -- He needs more firepower to keep up with Joubert, Takahashi, Lysacek, etc. If he can get that, then he can win the whole works, given that he's got a lot more going on in one minute of most of his programs than Joubert and Takahashi do in their ENTIRE programs. Plus it would also help if he would rein in that "ditzy artiste the slightest thing can make me come off the rails" routine for a couple of years.....

Rochette -- I'd love to see Joannie on the podium, but she's gotta regain the form she had in 05-06 and even then I'm not sure she can hold her own against Asada, Ando, and company. Being past the age when most of the ladies are able to add anything major to their technical arsenal doesn't help. I'm hoping she does break through and not end up like Josee Chouinard, thisclose to the podium but never quite made it, but I'm not sure she will, given the technical level -- and consistency -- of the ladies she's competing against.

Inoue & Baldwin -- I would hardly consider them to be the best pair out there right now that never made the Worlds podium, though Rena might be currently the best pairs SKATER out there right now that never made the Worlds podium. IMHO, even at their smoothest, their perfomances are just too sloppy to seriously contend with the Chinese and Savchenko/Szolkowy; there are even pairs out there with a lot less going on technically that just flat out LOOK a lot better. Castile & Okolski's winning LP at Nats looked more polished than ANYTHING I/B have ever put together; I just don't see them as medal contenders at Worlds at all, unless John gets a LOT better -- and he's a bit long in the tooth to be making any major improvements.

 

[all that]

I was talking about the entire Canadian skating team. I don't see a good chance of any of them getting a medal at 2008 Worlds, 2009 Worlds, or 2010 Olympics.

Virtue and Moir are the strongest bet but even there the top 3 look very solidly locked in...Delobel + Schoenfelder, Tanith + Ben, Domnina + Shabalin...and to me it seems like more of a competition between those 3 pairs to decide medal placements up through 2010 Olympics. This is not an uncommon occurrence in ice dancing.

I think that V&M may not make the Worlds podium this year, but I definitely think they'll be on it in 2009 and 2010, and will medal at the Olympics. Their basic skating skills are better than all of the top three teams. The only things holding them back last year were speed and ice coverage, which were functions of the fact that they weren't finished growing yet.

 

[rain]

Looking at the distribution of events, I think that though Rochette and Virtue and Moir may not make the worlds podium this year, they have an excellent shot at making the Grand Prix final, with every opportunity to win a medal in their respective events.

Mens will be the toughest field, with a huge depth of talent. In pairs, the issue is breaking into the top 3 or 4.

 

[slutskayafan21]

If Buttle ends up 2nd behind Joubert at Skate Canada, and 3rd behind Lambiel and Weir at Cup of Russia, he could end up missing the final. To me it looks like 7 guys probably fighting for 6 spots in the final: Lambiel, Joubert, Takahashi, Buttle, Weir, Lysacek, Verner. Lambiel and Weir are the only ones at 2 events with 3 of that group, while Lysacek and Buttle have 3 of that group at 1 of their 2 events. Verner, Joubert, and Takahashi have only 2 of that group of both of their events. Of course there are always surprises, last season Verner was the surprise but not until late season, not really so much on the GP circuit.

 

[all that]

Looking at the distribution of events, I think that though Rochette and Virtue and Moir may not make the worlds podium this year, they have an excellent shot at making the Grand Prix final, with every opportunity to win a medal in their respective events.

Barring disaster, V&M should win gold at Skate Canada, and at least silver at the NHK. Not sure if they can make the podium at GPF though.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Barring disaster, V&M should win gold at Skate Canada, and at least silver at the NHK. Not sure if they can make the podium at GPF though.

They would just need to beat out 1 of the 3 teams ranked over them at Worlds. Belbin/Agosto, Delobel/Schoenfelder, or Domnina/Shabalin. Given their current improvement rate that seems quite feasible.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

A fan could really write a full list of Now Or Never skaters.

Other than Paul Wylie, who came through after being doomed so long?

Joe

 

[slutskayafan21]

A fan could really write a full list of Now Or Never skaters.

Other than Paul Wylie, who came through after being doomed so long?

Joe

Well Wylie was 27 and in his final season, so was at even more desperate point then these skaters. However while it was monumental for him, lets not forget it took almost all of the contenders screwing up majorly for it to happen, lets say oh Browning, Barna, Bowman, Urmanov, Eldredge, Filipowski,
Zagorodniuk, and even eventual gold medalist Petrenko. Would the judges have been willing to even consider him at that point otherwise? Somehow I doubt it.

 

[chuckm]

I don't think you can point to Paul Wylie as an example of someone who failed over and over again and then made it when it counted. Wylie was attending Harvard during the years he struggled. Once he graduated and could invest his full attention on skating, he was able to shine, and that's when he won that silver Olympic medal.

I think Inoue/Baldwin are done. They are skipping the GP this year, and I have read that the reason has nothing to do with a need to rest. Reportedly they were supposed to attend a mandatory training camp, but they were touring in Japan and didn't return for the camp (Weir did return, very reluctantly) and USFS made them give up their GP slots because they didn't show up.

Weir HAS to get it all together this year, as does Rochette. Weir has to prove he can skate a FS as choreographed, with all the jumps in place. He hasn't been able to do that the last two seasons. Rochette has to return to the form she had prior to Worlds 2006, or it's all over for her as well. Every year they fail to deliver, their credibility ravels just a little bit more.

Buttle needs to deliver, too. He was lackluster last year, and I'm not sure his injury had anything to do with it. Somehow he seems to have lost his belief in himself.

Delobel have reached a now-or-never situation as well. If they can't win a World medal with D/L and Den/Sta out of the picture, they never will. But their lack of connection with one another on the ice gives them no room for error. They have to skate with precision AND intensity every time out, or they will be edged once again.

 

[rain]

Barring disaster, V&M should win gold at Skate Canada, and at least silver at the NHK. Not sure if they can make the podium at GPF though.

Didn't mean to imply either V/M or Rochette would make the podium at the Grand Prix final, just that they should be able to get to the competition. But I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that they could make the podium at the GPF. As we all know, the GPF podium is not always, or even often, a good representation of the eventual world rankings.

One of the reasons for this, I think, is that the judges are more willing to mess around with the established order at the GP, but also that the GP tends to measure who comes out ready early, as opposed to who ends up being best prepared come worlds.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I don't think you can point to Paul Wylie as an example of someone who failed over and over again and then made it when it counted. Wylie was attending Harvard during the years he struggled. Once he graduated and could invest his full attention on skating, he was able to shine, and that's when he won that silver Olympic medal.

I think Inoue/Baldwin are done. They are skipping the GP this year, and I have read that the reason has nothing to do with a need to rest. Reportedly they were supposed to attend a mandatory training camp, but they were touring in Japan and didn't return for the camp (Weir did return, very reluctantly) and USFS made them give up their GP slots because they didn't show up.

Weir HAS to get it all together this year, as does Rochette. Weir has to prove he can skate a FS as choreographed, with all the jumps in place. He hasn't been able to do that the last two seasons. Rochette has to return to the form she had prior to Worlds 2006, or it's all over for her as well. Every year they fail to deliver, their credibility ravels just a little bit more.

Buttle needs to deliver, too. He was lackluster last year, and I'm not sure his injury had anything to do with it. Somehow he seems to have lost his belief in himself.

Delobel have reached a now-or-never situation as well. If they can't win a World medal with D/L and Den/Sta out of the picture, they never will. But their lack of connection with one another on the ice gives them no room for error. They have to skate with precision AND intensity every time out, or they will be edged once again.

That is a good accessment on all those skaters situations I think.

 

[museksk8r]

When Joannie jumps well, the judges have displayed their appreciation for her skating. Her jumps typically get high GOE points when she hits them. In the LP at the Olympics, she had the 2nd highest technical marks behind Arakawa and in the LP at Worlds last season in Tokyo, she had the 3rd highest technical marks behind Asada and Ando. What's really been hurting her are the low PCS marks she's been getting and the inability to skate clean short programs. Had she been able to skate a clean SP in Torino, I feel the judges would have placed her in 6th position and thus her PCS marks would have been looked upon more favorably since she would have been in the final group for the LP. Had everyone skated the LP the way it ended up playing out, Joannie would have completed the most clean triples, which she did with 6. Shizuka, Sasha, and Fumie did 5 and Irina did 4. Perhaps Rochette could have made the podium under those circumstances. Again, in Tokyo Worlds, Joannie had disappointing results in the SP, but came back with the 5th best LP and again, her technical marks ranked top 3 in the world, but her PCS marks were again her downfall. I hope she has worked on addressing what the judges see as a weakness in her skating with those program component scores. I think it's quite shocking to see her getting beaten in PCS by Kimmie Meissner and Emily Hughes. Again, it may have been a result of skating early in 2 LP groups before Kimmie and Emily, who both skated in the final group in Tokyo. I would love to see Joannie medal at the BIG events!

 

[slutskayafan21]

Kimmie and Emilie project more confidence and attack when they skate then Joannie does. This reflects in the PCS. Rochette projects someone who lacks confidence in her own skating and abilities, and seems hesitant and unsure at times.

 

[museksk8r]

Kimmie and Emilie project more confidence and attack when they skate then Joannie does. This reflects in the PCS. Rochette projects someone who lacks confidence in her own skating and abilities, and seems hesitant and unsure at times.

Yes, that's true, but it's a shame that she receives lower PCS because I feel she presents herself better in her costuming, her sense of body line, flow across the ice, and use of her arms. Her maturity is greater too! In those areas, she is much better than Kimmie and Emily IMO.

 

[Tonichelle]

Well Wylie was 27 and in his final season, so was at even more desperate point then these skaters. However while it was monumental for him, lets not forget it took almost all of the contenders screwing up majorly for it to happen, lets say oh Browning, Barna, Bowman, Urmanov, Eldredge, Filipowski,
Zagorodniuk, and even eventual gold medalist Petrenko. Would the judges have been willing to even consider him at that point otherwise? Somehow I doubt it.

he still had to skate well... which he did. *shrugs* so the top names didn't bring it. That's why it's called a sport....

 

[slutskayafan21]

he still had to skate well... which he did. *shrugs* so the top names didn't bring it. That's why it's called a sport....

I agree. My point is that event does not neccessarily show the judges are willing to overlook a skaters past failures and just give them the marks on the spot if they suddenly deliever without the track record. That event it was a case of his skating so well, and many others not, backing the judges into a corner. As it is many felt, alteast in North America, he was robbed of the gold which went to Petrenko after Petrenko fell apart in the last 2 minutes of his program, and that the judges simply werent willing to go there because of his track record. Not that everyone has to agree on that, but it is what many said at the time.