2022 Olympic Ladies Predictions + Analysis!

[Skatesocs]

Yeah, I know, I know, 2021 Worlds haven't happened yet, but we could wrap that into our considerations if/when it happens. I think the Beijing Olympics for Ladies is going to be the most exciting event in recent years for me, including the season leading up to it. I have tried to discuss layouts for Trusova and Kihira, and received some good input, but hopefully this thread will wrap all the contenders into one thread, and we can see who can rule them all. Remember, we still need to know which countries will receive how many spots, but we do know Russia, Japan, and South Korea have contenders.

I'll start with my sentimental favorite, and will let people have the thread for their own proposed layouts and what they hope to see, and who they think will win. And who can make the team.

From the US, I hope to see Karen Chen make the Olympic team. For me she is one of the best PCS skaters, and she has top notch tech elements if she hits them. I still want to see her train a 3A and do:

3A
3Lz
3Lo+2Lo x

Which to me would be a wonderful throwback to Asada's SP in 2014 if Chen is able to get her choreography and skating to that level. She can surely focus on the 3A if she cuts down the tech content to this, and focus on delivering everything else to the highest quality - GOE and PCS is where I think she can win out.

For the LP she can then try:

3A
2A+3T
3F
2A+3T
3Lz+1Eu+3S x
3Lz x
3Lo x

Get the big jumps out of the way - and I think this is the best way to optimize her layout assuming she gets a 3A. No UR calls on the 2A+3T. Will just need to focus on getting the 3Lz+1Eu+3S around. I think she's planning to keep the LP, so I hope someone gets her better music cuts, and she can probably do a better job on the choreography herself. Hope to see this full sequence back from the gala as the ChSq:

From the direct contenders for the OGM, I'd like someone to propose a layout for Kamila Valieva's LP. She's working on the 3A, so no doubt for the SP she'll just be replacing the 2A with a 3A and doing the rest of her layout in the same way. But for the LP I think she shouldn't bother too much with doing two 3As, and I want her replace the 3Lz+1Eu+3S she does with a more pleasing combo.

4T+2T
3A
4T
3Lo
3Lz+1Eu+3S
3F
3Lz+3T

That still has the +3S combo I don't think she's training a +3Lo. If she gets the 4S into her LP, I guess we can just drop the +3S because she got a salchow in there somehow...

 

[flanker]

I don't think she's training a +3Lo. If she gets the 4S into her LP, I guess we can just drop the +3S because she got a salchow in there somehow...

During the training before nationals Kamila did also succesful 3Lz+3Lo, but I don't know whether it was a part of the systematic preparation or just her own initiative.

 

[Dawn825]

Is Kamila training a quad salchow?

 

[Skatesocs]

During the training before nationals Kamila did also succesful 3Lz+3Lo, but I don't know whether it was a part of the systematic preparation or just her own initiative.

If she's doing a +3Lo, then she can do

4T+2T
3A
4T
3S
3Lz+3Lo x
3Lz+3T+2Lo x
3F x

(AND she can just replace the 3S with the 4S if she's prepared with it/depending on her condition/competitive needs)

Is Kamila training a quad salchow?

Unless I have her mixed up with someone else (which I might have, the RLT moves way fast), yes?

ETA: So I correctly remembered having read that somewhere, but I am not sure any videos exist of it: https://fs-gossips.com/kamila-valieva-plans-to-jump-quad-in-her-free-program/

 

[Dawn825]

Ok thanks. That article is from a year and a half ago, but maybe she'll be working on it over the summer. I wonder if Anna will try to learn another type of quad over the summer too.

 

[flanker]

Is Kamila training a quad salchow?

Don't remember I'd heard anything about it, but she is said to train 4Lz.

 

[Skatesocs]

I wonder if Anna will try to learn another type of quad over the summer too.

I'd focus on the 3A for the SP advantage. The LP at Russian Nationals is near optimal - she'll only need to replace the 3F+3T with a 4Lz+3T. To get a leg up - get a 3A. Otherwise she's stuck doing the same layout in the SP and playing catch-up in the LP (where she is required to do an axel - which will again be a 2A if she doesn't get a 3A).

 

[kirauza343]

Based on where everyone’s at right now I see four main contenders for the gold: Rika, and whichever three Russian girls get chosen (anyone that’s good enough to displace the current top three of Anna, Kamila, and Sasha would absolutely by extension be in this group). Young You or Alysa (if she gets her difficult elements back) can challenge for the podium with mistakes from others but if we have a clean event those four are the ones to focus on.

Rika has a consistent enough triple axel to do three during across two programs and with the addition of her quad sal she’s added more fire power. I don’t know if she’ll get the quad toe or if she’ll be able to put the quad sal in combination by Beijing (and even if she could I don’t know if the risk will be worth it) but she has some great technical firepower and could easily have a cushion after the short (Sasha and Kamila do have triple axels but they’ve also yet to hit them in competition). She might also get some help if the judges don’t want to see a Russian sweep

Sasha’s the biggest wildcard because there’s no telling what layout she’ll go for. Because of how she’s typical judges if everyone is clean she needs more quads, and more quads makes it harder for her to be clean. If she goes out there and completes all the difficulty she’s capable of though she’s unbeatable.

Kamila has the benefit of Russian Fed behind her and being the fresh new senior debuting in an Olympic cycle. She’s not who I want to see win but she is IMO the person with the best chance of winning. Even with just a triple axel and two quad toes she’ll get plenty of points elsewhere and there is the possibility she adds another quad (I’m not sure about this quad lutz talk though, have you seen her triple? Then again training the quad could throw off her timing)

Anna will likely have the benefit of components in a field without Alena (which I don’t agree with but what are you gonna do) and the fact that she does the most difficult quads. However she typically isn’t scored as well internationally as she is domestically (she may have beaten Sasha twice last year but she had the lowest Season’s Best of the trio) and an international panel is more likely to call her underrotations and her edges. With a clean performance with minimal issues there though she can easily compete for the top spot.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

Honestly, I see 4 contenders and whoever skates clean will likely win (and then it'll be very close if multiple girls skate clean).
If they all skate clean I can see gold going to kamila (assuming she has 2 x 4T , 2 x 3A (one in each program), silver going to Trusova (assuming sp 3A and 4 quad FS) and bronze going to Sherbakova with Rika getting best of the rest.
But in terms of what they produce, I think Sherbakova and Rika have the best chance of going clean so It's likely they'll be a Sherbakova - Rika - Russian girl podium.
Of course, on the night Trusova might have the only clean skate and win. Same with Rika. Same with Sherbakova. Same with Kamila.

If Kostornaia makes a comeback, I think she could have the Olympic spot instead of Kamila.
Just give Russia 4 spots please, or Kostornaia will be the best skater ever never to make it to a worlds or olympic championship depending on how domestic Russian scoring goes.

 

[Skatesocs]

Kostornaia with a 3A will still have Usacheva nipping at her heels if she gets her own 3A as she hopes to. It's not at all guaranteed that Kostornaia gets a spot even with 4 for Russia.

The only thing we can say is that it will be two quadsters at a minimum from Russia at Beijing.

(And tbh, I think Wakaba Higuchi looks primed to be the best skater to never compete at the Olympics in recent memory)

 

[Dawn825]

Just give Russia 4 spots please, or Kostornaia will be the best skater ever never to make it to a worlds or olympic championship depending on how domestic Russian scoring goes.

Kostornaia will probably go to Worlds this year, don't despair.

I'd focus on the 3A for the SP advantage. The LP at Russian Nationals is near optimal - she'll only need to replace the 3F+3T with a 4Lz+3T. To get a leg up - get a 3A. Otherwise she's stuck doing the same layout in the SP and playing catch-up in the LP (where she is required to do an axel - which will again be a 2A if she doesn't get a 3A).

Good point about the axels, that's definitely the way to go. I hope Anna drops the lutz, and just does the flips then.

 

[Adjesusluvsu]

I think it's general knowledge that Rika Kihira and the three Russian girls will be competing for the top spots.

Rika Kihira:

• 4S
• Reliable 3A
• PCS strength - Skating skills
• GPF: 1 Gold
• Nationals: 2 Gold, 1 Silver, 1 Bronze
• 4CC: 2 Gold

Anna Shcherbakova:

• 4F
• 4Lz (e or ! if judged fairly)
• 4T?
• PCS strength - Performance and Interpretation
• Quick/beautiful spins
• Junior Worlds: 1 Silver
• GPF: 1 Silver
• Nationals: 3 Gold
• EC: 1 Silver

Alexandra Trusova:

• 4T
• 4S
• 4Lz
• 4F?
• JGPF: 1 Gold, 1 Silver
• Junior Worlds: 2 Gold
• GPF: 1 Bronze
• Nationals: 1 Silver, 2 Bronze
• EC: 1 Bronze

Kamila Valieva:

• 4T
• Quick/beautiful spins
• JGPF: 1 Gold
• Junior Worlds: 1 Gold
• Nationals: 1 Silver

I also have a very very distant hope that Alena Kostornaia makes it, so I'll put her stats here too.

• 3A (in the past)
• PCS strength - Skating Skills
• JGPF: 1 Gold, 1 Bronze
• Junior Worlds: 1 Silver
• Nationals: 2 Bronze, 1 Silver
• EC: 1 Gold

 

[Novalis]

Just give Russia 4 spots please, or Kostornaia will be the best skater ever never to make it to a worlds or olympic championship depending on how domestic Russian scoring goes.

But Dasha could be threatening her a year from now, so make it 5 spots.

But Liza T should be there as well with those more mature ultra-c elements, so make it 6 spots.

But I also want Zhenya in there for nostalgic reasons so please, make it 7 spots for Russian ladies.

Sorry Maya, but I will stand here at seven spots to Russia.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

So much can happen in 12 months. Alena was the best skater in the World last season and now is more likely than not to miss Worlds. Anna brought back her content after the long break but there is no guarantee she keeps the quads another year. The same is true for Kamila and Sasha. But I would be surprised if the Olympic podium isn't some combination of Russian skaters and Rika, although others may have a shot if the third Russian spot ends up going to a more up-and-down skater like Liza.

 

[alexocfp]

We should give out prizes to those that get the predictions correct.

A year is an eternity as it is. A year in figure skating is 10 eternities.

 

[Skatesocs]

We should give out prizes to those that get the predictions correct.

A year is an eternity as it is. A year in figure skating is 10 eternities.

1. Valieva
2. Trusova
3. Shcherbakova

 

[Blades of Passion]

1. Valieva
2. Trusova
3. Shcherbakova

Yep agreed. Valieva will become the top Eteri skater, Trusova will do the highest tech, and Shcherbakova will not be able to get a 3A, but the quads will keep her up there.

Kihira as a clear 4th place. And then hopefully Karen Chen in 5th place with clean programs and 3A that will materialize because the world deserves it. Actually my dream is for her to win one of the SP segments at the Olympics with a magical 3A-included program. Probably won't happen, but whatever.

 

[Skatesocs]

And then hopefully Karen Chen in 5th place with clean programs and 3A that will materialize because the world deserves it. Actually my dream is for her to win one of the SP segments at the Olympics with a magical 3A-included program.

 

[flanker]

So much can happen in 12 months. Alena was the best skater in the World last season and now is more likely than not to miss Worlds. Anna brought back her content after the long break but there is no guarantee she keeps the quads another year. The same is true for Kamila and Sasha. But I would be surprised if the Olympic podium isn't some combination of Russian skaters and Rika, although others may have a shot if the third Russian spot ends up going to a more up-and-down skater like Liza.

Basically you are right but I remember that something similar to "there is no guarantee she (Anna) keeps the quads another year" I hear like three seasons in a row since her first quad landed in a competition. I guess she reads similar comments and it always boosts her

 

[katymay]

1) Anna Shcerbakova 2) Kamila Valieva 3) Rika