2022 Olympic Ladies Predictions + Analysis!

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Purposefully watered down content to avoid further injury isn’t a meltdown and it’s disingenuous to equate it to one.
Ok, so she opened with a 1A, then did a 3Lz, then did a 2A. So you're suggesting both the opening 1A and the subsequent 2A were both intended because her injury prevented her from doing a 2A before doing a 1A first. Got it.
 

kirauza343

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 1, 2020
Ok, so she opened with a 1A, then did a 3Lz, then did a 2A. So you're suggesting both the opening 1A and the subsequent 2A were both intended because her injury prevented her from doing a 2A before doing a 1A first. Got it.
Apparently I misremembered what her pops were (I thought her lutz was the main jump she popped but nope she did two triple lutzes and doubled everything else) but my point still stands. Her doubles all look intentional. The single axel might’ve been an accidental pop but other than that she completed her planned layout with no problems; it was just a more watered down layout than we were used to. Still not a meltdown. It’s also important to remember that this was a completely meaningless domestic competition, not anything high stakes.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
The point is she isn't that much more consistent than the other American women. She's had some great programs and some shaky ones; we can't just ignore her bad outings and say she's more consistent than her peers because she skates well when she skates well.
 

AshWagsFan

Edges for days.
Final Flight
Joined
Oct 14, 2017
Country
United-States
I’m going to go for a slightly bold prediction here and say Rika Kihira could win the OGM or the silver medal.

Gobig into the games, the Russians will have all of the pressure on them, so Rika will be more of a dark horse and she can focus on herself. She’s got the triple axel in the short which keeps her up at the top, and she can do two triple axels and the quad Sal in the free.

She may need others to make mistakes, but don’t count her out for the gold.
 

lzxnl

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
I’m going to go for a slightly bold prediction here and say Rika Kihira could win the OGM or the silver medal.

Gobig into the games, the Russians will have all of the pressure on them, so Rika will be more of a dark horse and she can focus on herself. She’s got the triple axel in the short which keeps her up at the top, and she can do two triple axels and the quad Sal in the free.

She may need others to make mistakes, but don’t count her out for the gold.
Kamila has a 3A, 4T and a 4S. Rika currently only has a 3A and a 4S. Now, if Kamila doesn't do three 3As, Rika can probably keep up with Kamila in tech if she does two 4S in the free. However, she'll need that 4T and a 4S in combination if Kamila does three 3As. It's not easy. Rika hasn't been able to land everything cleanly so far. IF she could land her maximum difficulty content cleanly, she would be almost assured of a podium finish, and could beat Kamila if the latter makes mistakes/doesn't attempt 3 3As. I don't like Anna's odds of learning a 3A before the Olympics, so it is unlikely she would top a fully clean Rika with three quads and three 3As.
 

flanker

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 10, 2018
Country
Czech-Republic
Kamila has a 3A, 4T and a 4S. Rika currently only has a 3A and a 4S. Now, if Kamila doesn't do three 3As, Rika can probably keep up with Kamila in tech if she does two 4S in the free. However, she'll need that 4T and a 4S in combination if Kamila does three 3As. It's not easy. Rika hasn't been able to land everything cleanly so far. IF she could land her maximum difficulty content cleanly, she would be almost assured of a podium finish, and could beat Kamila if the latter makes mistakes/doesn't attempt 3 3As. I don't like Anna's odds of learning a 3A before the Olympics, so it is unlikely she would top a fully clean Rika with three quads and three 3As.
So literally you don't like Anna's odds of learning a 3A before the Olympics, but give Rika another quad before the olympics? How else she could do three quads? I would also add that it is very bold statemtn to presume Rika would do two quads and two 3A in the free, so far we've seen her only replacing one 3A for a 4S. That 4S was good, but her 3A decreased, IMO.
 

silveruskate

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 20, 2019
So literally you don't like Anna's odds of learning a 3A before the Olympics, but give Rika another quad before the olympics? How else she could do three quads? I would also add that it is very bold statemtn to presume Rika would do two quads and two 3A in the free, so far we've seen her only replacing one 3A for a 4S. That 4S was good, but her 3A decreased, IMO.
I'm not convinced by Rika's ability to land these layouts, but she's shown 4T and 4S in training. One quad attempted twice with one in combination, and the other one solo would be 3. Anna hasn't shown the capability to do a 3A yet.
 

Dawn825

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 19, 2021
It's a little early to say who has what I think. We saw one 4S from Kamila on Instagram, which is not the same thing as being able to land it in competition. Maiia and Elizaveta have both done quads on Instagram, but I wouldn't consider either of them to have a quad yet. Rika has only competed once so far this season, it's very hard to tell where she's at, and who knows what she's up to in practice. She knows what she's going to be up against next year, she isn't going to spend the summer sitting on her butt. Neither are the others. I think we're going to be seeing a lot of new jump attempts from everyone, it's a long time between now and next season.
 

kirauza343

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 1, 2020
So literally you don't like Anna's odds of learning a 3A before the Olympics, but give Rika another quad before the olympics? How else she could do three quads? I would also add that it is very bold statemtn to presume Rika would do two quads and two 3A in the free, so far we've seen her only replacing one 3A for a 4S. That 4S was good, but her 3A decreased, IMO.
Her plan was to do two triple axels plus a quad sal in the free skate this season but reportedly her triple axel was giving her some issues at Nationals so she only did the one (and it’s not like she needed a second one in that field). Her planned content has a triple axel in the second half of her program.

It’s not a case of her adding a quad sal at the cost of a triple axel like Liza did. She’s already attempted a two triple axel and one quad program at GPF last season.
 

lzxnl

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
So literally you don't like Anna's odds of learning a 3A before the Olympics, but give Rika another quad before the olympics? How else she could do three quads? I would also add that it is very bold statemtn to presume Rika would do two quads and two 3A in the free, so far we've seen her only replacing one 3A for a 4S. That 4S was good, but her 3A decreased, IMO.
Show me a single video of Anna attempting a 3A, and I'll show you two videos of Rika attempting and landing a 4T. Not fully rotated ones, but she has landed them without a harness.

Her odds of landing everything clean? Not so high, I'll admit that, which is why I don't think Rika is a favourite for Beijing. Definitely a medal contender though.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
Yeah, I know, I know, 2021 Worlds haven't happened yet, but we could wrap that into our considerations if/when it happens. I think the Beijing Olympics for Ladies is going to be the most exciting event in recent years for me, including the season leading up to it. I have tried to discuss layouts for Trusova and Kihira, and received some good input, but hopefully this thread will wrap all the contenders into one thread, and we can see who can rule them all. Remember, we still need to know which countries will receive how many spots, but we do know Russia, Japan, and South Korea have contenders.

I'll start with my sentimental favorite, and will let people have the thread for their own proposed layouts and what they hope to see, and who they think will win. And who can make the team.

From the US, I hope to see Karen Chen make the Olympic team. For me she is one of the best PCS skaters, and she has top notch tech elements if she hits them. I still want to see her train a 3A and do:

3A
3Lz
3Lo+2Lo x

Which to me would be a wonderful throwback to Asada's SP in 2014 if Chen is able to get her choreography and skating to that level. She can surely focus on the 3A if she cuts down the tech content to this, and focus on delivering everything else to the highest quality - GOE and PCS is where I think she can win out.

For the LP she can then try:

3A
2A+3T
3F
2A+3T
3Lz+1Eu+3S x
3Lz x
3Lo x

Get the big jumps out of the way - and I think this is the best way to optimize her layout assuming she gets a 3A. No UR calls on the 2A+3T. Will just need to focus on getting the 3Lz+1Eu+3S around. I think she's planning to keep the LP, so I hope someone gets her better music cuts, and she can probably do a better job on the choreography herself. Hope to see this full sequence back from the gala as the ChSq:
From the direct contenders for the OGM, I'd like someone to propose a layout for Kamila Valieva's LP. She's working on the 3A, so no doubt for the SP she'll just be replacing the 2A with a 3A and doing the rest of her layout in the same way. But for the LP I think she shouldn't bother too much with doing two 3As, and I want her replace the 3Lz+1Eu+3S she does with a more pleasing combo.

4T+2T
3A
4T
3Lo
3Lz+1Eu+3S
3F
3Lz+3T

That still has the +3S combo :( I don't think she's training a +3Lo. If she gets the 4S into her LP, I guess we can just drop the +3S because she got a salchow in there somehow...Great to be a Karen Chen but thinking shecando a triple axel seems astretchconsideringtheunderrotations.
 

mrrice

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 9, 2014
Not gonna go there. I really need to see how Worlds turn out before I can give a true answer. This has been such a strange year and I didn't get to see a number of the european, or japanese ladies. Ask me again in a couple of months.
 

Ali81

Rinkside
Joined
Feb 11, 2018
Country
United-Kingdom
Having rewatched recent performances, I think Anna Scherbakova is most likely to get Gold, barring unforeseen events of course. She has the best amalgamation of musicality , carriage , skating skills and technical prowess amongst all the ladies internationally.And she’s got true grit. I think in full flow she is mesmerising and would be a deserved OGM.
 
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Ophelia

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 6, 2013
I'm predicting a Russian sweep at this point, which Kihira being the wild card if she happens to get it together.
 

kenboy123

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 20, 2017
There won't be a Russian sweep because Russians won't be the are the olympics ... they will be called "Olympic athletes from Russian"...lol... anyways, I really hope Kihira can get on the podium ... it always seems like she does amazingly all year and then "falls at the final hurdle"... she deserves a World or Olympic medal, but I guess she doesn't if she can't perform at the biggest stages ... anyways, since I'm Canadian ... I'm going to say Madeline Schizas will make the top 10 next year...LOL...
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
I noted Anna has grown a lot and filled out, too. She may have the same problems Medvedeva and Zagitova had once they hit the growth and maturity stage, and the Olympic season is the worst time for that to happen. Valieva is the more likely OGM candidate, as she already has the 3a to go with her quads.
 
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