2020-21 US Women's Figure Skating

[macy]

it will be very interesting to see which 3 ladies can prove themselves worthy of an Olympic spot next season...

will Amber show USFS they can finally rely on her to deliver internationally? will she land her 3A consistently in competition and place high at nationals again?

can Mariah come out stronger and put her 5th place finish behind her? she needs to be the skater she was in 19/20.

can Bradie recover from a poor finish at worlds and her boot problems? can she get the URs under control?

will Alysa keep on the upward swing and get her 3A and quads back? will puberty still affect her? can she prove herself the top US lady internationally as a senior?

will Karen keep delivering and add in a 3+3 or will the pressure get to her again?

 

[dancelion21]

Bit of a side note, but does anyone know what's been up with Edeas boots? Last season, Evgenia Medvedeva's Edeas fell apart at Russian Nationals, and she had to withdraw from the free skate. Of course, Bradie's Edeas fell apart at Worlds and she did not perform up to her standard. If I remember correctly, last year at Junior Worlds, Stephen Gogolev's were giving him trouble too. Do we know why Edeas seem to be falling apart and catching skaters off guard so frequently?

 

[ice coverage]

... And Karen if offered WTT she should go. She needs every event to build her Olympic team inclusion narrative cause her 4th at worlds isn’t enough. The rest of her record is still too spotty. ...

Karen *at present* has the best record of the U.S. ladies in terms of events that USFS has said (as of Aug 2020) that it will consider for 2022 OWG team selection.
That list of events goes back no further than 2021 Nats (which will be of lower importance), and the only other event that has occurred so far is 2021 Worlds (which will be of greater importance).
So at this point, Karen's record is 4th at Worlds and 3rd at 2021 Nats, which is the opposite of "spotty."
Bradie's record is 9th at Worlds and 1st at 2021 Nats; all other U.S. ladies have only their 2021 Nats results.
(WTT is not on the list.)

That said, I am not questioning the importance of the Olympic season itself.
I do not recall any predictions on GS from immediately after 2017 Worlds that Bradie would win 2017 Skate America bronze, 2018 U.S. Nats gold, and OWG team bronze; and would have the highest placement of the U.S. ladies at 2018 OWG and 2018 Worlds.

ETA:

Bradie placed 9th at 2017 Nats, and 7th at 2017 Junior Worlds.
I attended 2017 Philadelphia International, and watched in person as Bradie won there. She made a good impression on me, but I still did not immediately think, "OMG, she's now an absolute shoo-in for Skate America host pick -- no way would USFS choose anyone else."
It was exciting to see her continue to achieve one success after another throughout her breakthrough season.​

---

As for USFS assignments to WTT, my recollection is that ISU World Standings have been of high(est?) importance.

FWIW, on the updated list of WS (including 2021 Worlds results):

3203 Bradie
2020 Mariah
1956 Karen
1553 Starr
1306 Amber​

My heart is with Amber, and hope springs eternal.

 

[Jammers]

Top be honest i'm ready for a whole new team to go Beijing but skaters who might have had a chance like Ting Cui never panned out it's really to bad because Ting had the talent to pass up Karen, Amber, Mariah if she had only stayed healthy these last two years. Sadly only Alysa has really rose in this Olympic cycle from the Junior ranks to be a contender for the Olympic team which explains the lack of depth at the moment in US Ladies.

 

[mrrice]

Top be honest i'm ready for a whole new team to go Beijing but skaters who might have had a chance like Ting Cui never panned out it's really to bad because Ting had the talent to pass up Karen, Amber, Mariah if she had only stayed healthy these last two years. Sadly only Alysa has really rose in this Olympic cycle from the Junior ranks to be a contender for the Olympic team which explains the lack of depth at the moment in US Ladies.

I'm not ready to give up on Bradie. If her boots were truly her problem, she should rebound and be fine. Time will tell. She was so good at Nationals and I hope she can regain that level.

 

[Dawn825]

not ranking but it will count for season's best this year which is why I was actually hoping they would send Amber, otherwise she might not get GPs because her world ranking is low. Bradie and Karen have guaranteed GPs now from Worlds and Mariah will also get GPs from her world ranking.

I'm confused. There's a minimum season's best required to get GP spots? What is it? I thought the US got to send 3 skters to each event regardless? What if not enough skaters have the minimum? Especially from this season with almost no competitions?

 

[chuckm]

Bradie placed 9th at 2017 Nationals and 7th at 2017 JW, but that was the year when she had a back injury. She had finished 6th at her first Senior Nationals in 2016, after winning the Junior title the previous year.

Of course, then she won Senior Nationals in 2018 and earned her Olympic berth.

 

[ice coverage]

... That said, I am not questioning the importance of the Olympic season itself.
I do not recall any predictions on GS from immediately after 2017 Worlds that Bradie would win 2017 Skate America bronze, 2018 U.S. Nats gold, and OWG team bronze; and would have the highest placement of the U.S. ladies at 2018 OWG and 2018 Worlds.

ETA:

Bradie placed 9th at 2017 Nats, and 7th at 2017 Junior Worlds.
I attended 2017 Philadelphia International, and watched in person as Bradie won there. She made a good impression on me, but I still did not immediately think, "OMG, she's now an absolute shoo-in for Skate America host pick -- no way would USFS choose anyone else."
It was exciting to see her continue to achieve one success after another throughout her breakthrough season.​

...

Bradie placed 9th at 2017 Nationals and 7th at 2017 JW, but that was the year when she had a back injury. She had finished 6th at her first Senior Nationals in 2016, after winning the Junior title the previous year.

Of course, then she won Senior Nationals in 2018 and earned her Olympic berth.

Re Bradie, in my post above, I discussed her 2018 Nats win and other successes in the 2017-18 Olympic season -- and I hope it was obvious that my feeling was/is that she 100% deserved her Olympic berth.

I mentioned her results from 2017 Nats and 2017 Junior Worlds for two reasons:

- To support my point that immediately after pre-Olympic Worlds, it is possible for someone like Bradie to be off the radar as a contender for the Olympic team (AFAIK, she was off the radar of most fans discussing contenders in March 2017) ... but to make such enormous strides during the Olympic season that she eventually became perceived deservedly as a frontrunner both for Nats gold and for selection to the Olympic team. And deservedly went on to secure both.​

- Also because Nats and ISU championships from the pre-Olympic season (such as 2017 and 2021) are the earliest events that do count toward the "body of work" that USFS considers for OWG team selection ... but less-than-superstellar results from those early 2017 events did not prevent someone like Bradie -- again, who made enormous strides during the Olympic season -- from deservedly making the Olympic team.​

---

I'm confused. There's a minimum season's best required to get GP spots? What is it? I thought the US got to send 3 skters to each event regardless? What if not enough skaters have the minimum? Especially from this season with almost no competitions?

The context for lurkerghost1's mention of Season's Best is that the order of skaters on the ISU Season's Best list is one of the factors that comes into play for GP assignments.
Top 24 on the Season's Best list are guaranteed at least one GP assignment.

ETA:

True in normal times, at least. In his post below, chuckm raises the issue of whether 2020-21 SBs should be used, and I do wonder whether the ISU will change the rules for 2021 GP assignments.​

Only at Skate America can USFS ensure that the U.S. will have three entries in every discipline.
Not at other GPs. Other host federations have no obligation to invite three U.S. entries in any discipline.

 

[chuckm]

If you look at the Season's Best list for 2001-2 it is very, very short and includes only the top 24 from Worlds plus the results from some fall 2020 Challenger events. No one from NA or Asia went to the European events, so it is hardly representative.
IMO, there is a real problem with just using this SB list. It should be merged with the 19-20 SB list otherwise should not be used for GP assignments.

There is a similar problem with the WR list once it is purged of older data. I have done a preliminary calculation on all 4 disciplines and have concluded that anyone who used to be in the top 24 but did not finish top 24 at 21 Worlds and also did not finish top 24 at 2020 Euros or 4CC, has dropped way out of consideration.

1	Anna SHCHERBAKOVA	RUS	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	233.17	S
2	Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA	RUS	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	220.46	S
3	Alexandra TRUSOVA	RUS	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	217.20	S
4	Karen CHEN	USA	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	208.63	S
5	Loena HENDRICKX	BEL	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	208.44	S
6	Kaori SAKAMOTO	JPN	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	207.80	S
7	Rika KIHIRA	JPN	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	205.70	S
8	Olga MIKUTINA	AUT	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	198.77	S
9	Bradie TENNELL	USA	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	197.81	S
10	Haein LEE	KOR	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	193.44	S
11	Yelim KIM	KOR	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	191.78	S
12	Ekaterina RYABOVA	AZE	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	189.46	S
13	Madeline SCHIZAS	CAN	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	185.78	S
14	Eva-Lotta KIIBUS	EST	ISU CS Budapest Trophy 2020	17/10/2020	184.27	S
15	Josefin TALJEGARD	SWE	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	178.10	S
16	Lindsay VAN ZUNDERT	NED	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	174.50	S
17	Alexandra FEIGIN	BUL	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	173.52	S
18	Nicole SCHOTT	GER	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	172.80	S
19	Satoko MIYAHARA	JPN	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	172.30	S
20	Alina URUSHADZE	GEO	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	169.01	S
21	Alexia PAGANINI	SUI	ISU CS Nebelhorn Trophy 2020	26/09/2020	168.85	S
22	Julia LANG	HUN	ISU CS Budapest Trophy 2020	17/10/2020	166.55	S
23	Jenni SAARINEN	FIN	ISU CS Nebelhorn Trophy 2020	26/09/2020	163.87	S
24	Hongyi CHEN	CHN	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	162.79	S
25	Eliska BREZINOVA	CZE	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	155.14	S
26	Natasha MCKAY	GBR	ISU World Championships 2021	26/03/2021	153.46	S
27	Dasa GRM	SLO	ISU CS Budapest Trophy 2020	17/10/2020	152.07	S
28	Ivett TOTH	HUN	ISU CS Budapest Trophy 2020	17/10/2020	146.66	S
29	Emilea ZINGAS	CYP	ISU CS Budapest Trophy 2020	17/10/2020	144.61	S
30	Regina SCHERMANN	HUN	ISU CS Budapest Trophy 2020	17/10/2020	143.48	S
31	Nathalie WEINZIERL	GER	ISU CS Nebelhorn Trophy 2020	26/09/2020	143.01	S
32	Kristina SHKULETA-GROMOVA	EST	ISU CS Budapest Trophy 2020	17/10/2020	141.56	S
33	Anna LA PORTA	SUI	ISU CS Nebelhorn Trophy 2020	26/09/2020	139.96	S
34	Kristina ISAEV	GER	ISU CS Nebelhorn Trophy 2020	26/09/2020	138.91	S
35	Kristen SPOURS	GBR	ISU CS Nebelhorn Trophy 2020	26/09/2020	134.78	S
36	Stefanie PESENDORFER	AUT	ISU CS Nebelhorn Trophy 2020	26/09/2020	131.91	S
37	Maia SORENSEN	DEN	ISU CS Nebelhorn Trophy 2020	26/09/2020	128.94	S
38	Guzide Irmak BAYIR	TUR	ISU CS Budapest Trophy 2020	17/10/2020	127.62	S
39	Alexandra Michaela FILCOVA	SVK	ISU CS Nebelhorn Trophy 2020	26/09/2020	126.77	S
40	Aya HATAKAWA	GER	ISU CS Nebelhorn Trophy 2020	26/09/2020	125.69	S
41	Greta MORKYTE	LTU	ISU CS Nebelhorn Trophy 2020	26/09/2020	124.90	S
42	Cassandra JOHANSSON	SWE	ISU CS Nebelhorn Trophy 2020	26/09/2020	124.11	S
43	Antonina DUBININA	SRB	ISU CS Budapest Trophy 2020	17/10/2020	124.01	S
44	Marilena KITROMILIS	CYP	ISU CS Budapest Trophy 2020	17/10/2020	116.30	S
45	Sinem PEKDER	TUR	ISU CS Budapest Trophy 2020	17/10/2020	115.33	S
46	Natalie KLOTZ	AUT	ISU CS Nebelhorn Trophy 2020	26/09/2020	109.06	S

 

[Sk8D8]

not ranking but it will count for season's best this year which is why I was actually hoping they would send Amber, otherwise she might not get GPs because her world ranking is low. Bradie and Karen have guaranteed GPs now from Worlds and Mariah will also get GPs from her world ranking.

Do they select GPs after April when the 18/19 season is dropped off? If so then Amber is in top 24 and Bell is not anymore. Due to Bell passing up 4CC and Amber going and Worlds not happening.

 

[chuckm]

Yes, GP selection is based on the scrubbed WR list. Normally the oldest year of data is scrubbed entirely, and the previous year's data is reduced to 70% of its value. There has been discussion that the ISU should not impose the 70% reduction on 2019-2020 data because only the skaters who went to Worlds and qualified for the free portion have any points for 2020-2021, so to be fair, the point reduction should be reconsidered. It remains to be seen what the ISU will do.

 

[Sk8D8]

Yes, GP selection is based on the scrubbed WR list. Normally the oldest year of data is scrubbed entirely, and the previous year's data is reduced to 70% of its value. There has been discussion that the ISU should not impose the 70% reduction on 2019-2020 data because only the skaters who went to Worlds and qualified for the free portion have any points for 2020-2021, so to be fair, the point reduction should be reconsidered. It remains to be seen what the ISU will do.

I feel like that's fair

 

[Tavi...]

I'm confused. There's a minimum season's best required to get GP spots? What is it? I thought the US got to send 3 skters to each event regardless? What if not enough skaters have the minimum? Especially from this season with almost no competitions?

No. GP assignments are allocated in a specific order. Last year was an anomaly due to pandemic, but usually any skater who finishes in the top 12 at Worlds is guaranteed two GP assignments. Remaining spots are allocated based on season’s best score or season’s world ranking (1 spot guaranteed to a skater in top 24 in either category but often they’ll get 2). Host countries can offer one spot to one of their skaters who might not fall into one of these categories and have some leeway to offer remaining spots to lower ranked skaters. So basically skaters earn the right to GP assignments based on past performance. No more than 3 skaters from each Fed can be at any one GP, but sometimes there are none. The host countries make selections based on seeding rules I won’t go into and what gives their own skaters the chance to win, and negotiate with other Feds to get their skaters favorable assignments in other GPs. But no country has a right to send three skaters to each GP.

 

[ice coverage]

... Remaining spots are allocated based on season’s best score or season’s world ranking (1 spot guaranteed to a skater in top 24 in either category but often they’ll get 2). ...

At least for normal times:

You mean ISU World Standings, not ISU Season's World Ranking.​

The difference being that World Standings are a reflection of results from more than one season.​

(When I am using shorthand for "World Standings," I like to use the initials of "WS." As opposed to the IMO incongruous/confusing "WR," which some people -- not referring to you, Tavi -- use when they mean World Standings, based on more than one season. For me, WR brings "Season's World Ranking" to mind.)​

For @Dawn825:

When GP assignments are made by the normal procedure on the normal schedule (before the start of a new season), World Standings reflect results from the two most recent seasons.
After the new season starts, World Standings reflect results from the new season plus the two most recent seasons.​

I do agree that after the pandemic caused cancellation or modification of so many events in 2020 and early 2021, it is very possible that the normal procedure will not be followed for 2021-22 GP assignments.

 

[LiamForeman]

I'm just not sure what to do with Bradie. I really want to like her. But after Worlds, I am now soured to her. I was okay with the SP and her costume, was trying to support what she was doing with modern movement. I used to be built just like her, all arms and legs and always potential for poor positions if I don't commit to it, so I understand her willingness for modern/angular movement. But still you have to EXTEND those angular movements...... Having bad choreography and unwillingness to extend is awful to watch. This year was two giant steps back for her, and her new coach isn't helping matters. I don't think I'm the only one who thinks this, and wonder what USFS must be thinking leading up to Olympics. Should we push our national champion who has no charisma and isn't pleasant to watch? Maybe Amber will train like gangbusters and skate like a champion each time out so she can be pushed for Beijing...

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Should we push our national champion who has no charisma and isn't pleasant to watch?

I'm sure the USFSA is much more eager to get behind skaters like Karen, who is more in the mold of our previous champions. Despite her Worlds performances, Bradie usually delivers technically and that is more important for earning high placements than artistry.

 

[lizardlass]

Ashley posted on instagram today to announce she is returning to competition next season. Interesting!!!!

 

[ice coverage]

Ashley posted on instagram today to announce she is returning to competition next season. Interesting!!!!

It was just an April Fool's Day prank, which Ashley made 100% clear on Instastory.

 

[chuckm]

Charisma is in the eye of the beholder. If Bradie really had no charisma, she wouldn't be getting such high PCS scores, even with a subpar World 2021 performance.

 

[Greengemmonster]

Yup for all of the complaints against Bradie and her lack of.... whatever, she actually gets darn good PCS.