Who can defeat the Russian Women in 2021-22?

[Dawn825]

Highly doubt Trusova is going to be able to magically put it all together at the olympics after consistently falling at least twice in the free skate.

I suspect things may be different this year. Trusova left TT in part because they didnt want to let her compete more content than she could reliably land. Plushenko let her get away with it except when she was injured. Now that she's back at Sambo with no leverage, I imagine they will insist she cut back her content in favor of clean skates.

I still think Anna Scherbakova will win the OGM. The silver and bronze are up for grabs but I think Kamila will win one of them. I think Anna will beat Kamila for OGM because I think Bolero looks terrible on Kamila.

I'm no fan of Bolero but I highly doubt it'll make a difference. PCS is judged on reputation. Kamila has a great one, so she'll get great PCS. Theres no Olympic judge thats going to say "this program is crap and deserves a bunch of sevens" about a gold medal contender. If Kamila or Anna are at the Olympics, I predict they'll get 9s across the board regardless of what music is playing in the background. (And Anna's had bad programs too imo, so she might end up w/ something just as bad as Bolero.)

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Just curious because I wasn't mad about figure skating at the last Olympic cycle but was Alina the indisputable favorite or did people think xyz could have beaten her?

I know Zhenya obviously was the other favorite but did anyone think another skater could beat those two?

For everyone else, it was a race for bronze. Obviously anything could have happened (see: 2018 Worlds) but Zhenya and Alina were very heavy, and probably equal, favorites for the top 2 spots. With all of Alina's bonuses from backloading and maximizing layouts with the most valuable jumps, someone like Mirai with her 3A and eight total triples in the LP couldn't keep up even on base value. Factoring in GOE and PCS, it was a blow-out. Here are the scores from the team LP where both skated well: http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/owg2018/OWG2018_TeamLadies_FS_F_Scores.pdf

 

[icybear]

Just curious because I wasn't mad about figure skating at the last Olympic cycle but was Alina the indisputable favorite or did people think xyz could have beaten her?

I know Zhenya obviously was the other favorite but did anyone think another skater could beat those two?

If you can send me to an old thread I'd be happy to read it!

I recall Evgenia was the bigger favourite going into the season obviously being undefeated for 2 yrs but people were wary of Alina overtaking her. After Evgenia got injured, Alina gained the momentum and her winning the Euros made her the bigger favourite for the olympics. As for other competitors, it was pretty much a two horse race. No one was really thinking about some other skater taking the gold.

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

I suspect things may be different this year. Trusova left TT in part because they didnt want to let her compete more content than she could reliably land. Plushenko let her get away with it except when she was injured. Now that she's back at Sambo with no leverage, I imagine they will insist she cut back her content in favor of clean skates.

Yet she can’t beat Kamila with a similar content and they know it (see nationals). I think she has to do those quads.

 

[skylark]

I would love to see Shcherbakova or another skater of her age (in particular a Russian) win, not because I'm opposed to a 15 year old winning but because it will be a slap in the face to those that proclaim the Russian ladies to be 1 year wonders and why the age limit needs to be raised. Well if Shcherbakova, Trusova or Kostornaia wins they will be 18 or close to it

I would love to see Shcherbakova or Kostornaia win the Olympics, but I don't want to slap anyone in the face. I love both women's skating because they're both complete skaters with attention to music and emotion as well as beautiful technique that has proven in the past (at times) to be consistent. They both have nerves of steel in competition. I'm one of the people who would rather see skaters at their level have longer careers than Alina did; and my heart broke when Zhenya didn't win the Olympics. But she's moved on and skates because she loves exploring different aspects of skating, and she wanted a long career.

It seems to me that a lot of folks tend to underestimate Alysa Liu. She has a knack for surprising the nay-sayers. So I'm not counting her out. Anyway, the competitions are so much more interesting when the conventional analysis of the invested fans has a bit of a monkey wrench thrown into it. And yes, I realize the Zhenya-Alina match-up was just such an event. I also think Rika Kihira could, with the right programs, win 2022 Olympic gold, if she's healed from her injuries. And Kamila may be the best bet of all ... especially when you look at the number of 15 or 16-year-olds who won the Olympics since 1994. My money wouldn't be on Trusova, but anything can happen.

 

[Bluediamonds09]

This season idk if anyone can. But there are some promising European women upping their game. Let's get a thread for 2021/22 European women!!

 

[Azikin]

I would love to see Shcherbakova or Kostornaia win the Olympics

 

[arewhyaen]

I guess it depends if Eteri takes on a non-russian lady!

 

[Thrashergurl]

I think most people viewed Alina as the Olympic gold favorite. She had the momentum and Zhenya was badly injured. It’s pretty amazing that Zhenya skated so well considering her injury.
I think Kamila will be the winner this year. I don’t see any non Russian upsetting at all. It’ll be Kamila. She has the difficulty, the momentum and the youth. I’d love to see Trusova prove me wrong though.

 

[Azikin]

I think Kamila will be the winner this year. I don’t see any non Russian upsetting at all. It’ll be Kamila. She has the difficulty, the momentum and the youth. I’d love to see Trusova prove me wrong though.

Well I also think it will be Kamila but I wouldn't underestimate not only Trusova but neither of 3A, they are fighters!

 

[silveruskate]

If we see Nathan Chen's incredible run after the Olympics, he really should have won the 2018 Olympics, but he didn't. That's what Kamila has to contend with.

 

[Skatesocs]

Who can defeat the Russian Women in 2021-22?

COVID, and nothing else.

Tuktamysheva:
... I'm not sure tbh...

Why, spins and speed, and complexity, with maturity and charisma, of course. How can you forget?

 

[skatefan17]

I think a Japanese woman or possibly Alysa Liu (very slim chance but still!) could win over a Russian or two. It’s not likely but the ice is very slippery.

 

[alexocfp]

It’s probably better to just close the thread after the Russian test skates since every answer that follows this will be wrong. Haha

 

[anonymoose_au]

According to someone in the Lombardia thread, Alysa beating Anna's score at Lombardia from 2 seasons ago, under a different judging system is proof the fix is in.

Protect Anna from being overthrown by the talentless, juniorish embarrassment that is the evil Alysa Liu

 

[RatedPG]

After watching the test skates, I will be shocked if anybody beats Kamila or 3A. The rest of the Russians, I think are beatable here and there. I think the biggest challengers to those athletes are:

1) Rika Kihira - She was phenomenal at Japanese Nationals. With 3A and 4S, she has the best technical Arsenal to go head to head with the Russians. She needs Orser to set her straight this year. She could do it at a Grand Prix Event. However, she doesn’t seem to thrive in the important events like World Champs.
2) Kaori Sakamoto - She already beat Elizaveta T. at WTT. She has skated a 217 already this year in Japan and although she doesn’t have any ultra c element, she can be there in case someone slips up.
3) Alysa Liu - She just landed an under rotated 3A. She could fight it out. She has entered the toughest fields in the Grand Prix circuit and the fact she seems to thrive in competitive settings, I can see her pulling an upset in one of those events. If she solidifies her 3A, I might move her up to #2.
4) Young You - Seems to be inconsistent. However, she was close to landing a 4S and of course has a 3A in both programs. To me she is someone who will perform well in one event and then do poorly in the next. In the event that she does well in, she could upset a Russian girl.
5) Leona Hendrix - She is my dark horse pick this season. She has really good skating skills and could surprise.

 

[Arbitrary]

IF: Trusova does her job
THEN: the rest goes home
ELSE: whatever

From my PoV she's to decide who's the winner.

 

[Azikin]

IF: Trusova does her job
THEN: the rest goes home

Kamila at her best can still beat her. I think. Not sure about the exact point prediction..

 

[Arbitrary]

Kamila at her best can still beat her. I think. Not sure about the exact point prediction..

Nop.
PCS will not prevail over TES.
People like jumps. Choreo is good for show.
P.S. And to remember the factor of maturity.

 

[yume]

After watching the test skates, I will be shocked if anybody beats Kamila or 3A. The rest of the Russians, I think are beatable here and there. I think the biggest challengers to those athletes are:

1) Rika Kihira - She was phenomenal at Japanese Nationals. With 3A and 4S, she has the best technical Arsenal to go head to head with the Russians. She needs Orser to set her straight this year. She could do it at a Grand Prix Event. However, she doesn’t seem to thrive in the important events like World Champs.
2) Kaori Sakamoto - She already beat Elizaveta T. at WTT. She has skated a 217 already this year in Japan and although she doesn’t have any ultra c element, she can be there in case someone slips up.
3) Alysa Liu - She just landed an under rotated 3A. She could fight it out. She has entered the toughest fields in the Grand Prix circuit and the fact she seems to thrive in competitive settings, I can see her pulling an upset in one of those events. If she solidifies her 3A, I might move her up to #2.
4) Young You - Seems to be inconsistent. However, she was close to landing a 4S and of course has a 3A in both programs. To me she is someone who will perform well in one event and then do poorly in the next. In the event that she does well in, she could upset a Russian girl.
5) Leona Hendrix - She is my dark horse pick this season. She has really good skating skills and could surprise.

Sakamoto is very high in predictions despite having nothing special in layouts. That shows how much this scoring system is rewarding.

I can see Rika, Wakaba, Rino and Hana skating clean with 3A in both programs at nats and Kaori still coming at least 2nd with 79 points in SP and 155 in FS.

Internationally, with such scores, she beats comfortably Alisa Liu and Usacheva at least. Probably even Tuktamysheva because the girl always leave points on the table in the free skate. Khromykh with two quads in the free will be harder to beat.

The issue is, judges are rarely that generous with her if the competition isn't in Japan.