2021-22 Women's Skating Predictions and Rankings

[flanker]

To each their own but I will say, it’s kinda unfair that Liza has proved herself not only at Worlds but also this Finlandia followup including posting an above-80 SP and above-159 FS (which a lot of skaters in your top 10 haven’t done ever).

I mean, not sure if she can keep it up but it’s astonishing that the standards we are holding her too that even when she’s delivering she needs to do it 3-3 times to get any credibility. I mean she is the reigning World silver medalist and has kept a super consistent 3A, while Kihira and Kostornaia are struggling to maintain/regain theirs, and yet people are so sure she’s ahead of them. She just beat Kostornaia - and by a lot. And posted a higher total score than Anna won worlds with.

I mean,but hey, Liza really needs to pay her dues more before we take her seriously.... let’s see if Liza can make the Olympic team AND medal in Beijing. Once she medals and ONLY if she medals we can maaaaybe consider moving her into the top 5 of the power rankings.

Liza was struggling for years. It's not like this is her all time standard. If you see her career as a whole her recent results are more like a fluke than standard. She had her peak several times, the 2014-15 season, than 2018-19 which unfortunately was affected by pneumonia and then now. But in between she was struggling a lot. Her last score from Finlandia doesn't really arouse much confidence thanks to really high PCS that she hardly got before and I (and I am not alone in that) do not think it will repeat often. Not to mention that the whole event seems to have been scored very generously in particular cases (how many personal bests were achieved there?). I don't deny her jumps currently look secured, but that they looked before as well in some cases and it mostly didn't last.

Also comparing someone's solitary best with other solitary worst at two different events on a completely different levels, separated by 7 months, is not the best argument.

It's not claiming she can't make it to the olympic team, it's natural caution and reluctance to base the estimations on basically one result, that is not very consistent with the rest.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Liza was struggling for years. It's not like this is her all time standard. If you see her career as a whole her recent results are more like a fluke than standard. She had her peak several times, the 2014-15 season, than 2018-19 which unfortunately was affected by pneumonia and then now. But in between she was struggling a lot. Her last score from Finlandia doesn't really arouse much confidence thanks to really high PCS that she hardly got before and I (and I am not alone in that) do not think it will repeat often. Not to mention that the whole event seems to have been scored very generously in particular cases (how many personal bests were achieved there?). I don't deny her jumps currently look secured, but that they looked before as well in some cases and it mostly didn't last.

Also comparing someone's solitary best with other solitary worst at two different events on a completely different levels, separated by 7 months, is not the best argument.

It's not claiming she can't make it to the olympic team, it's natural caution and reluctance to base the estimations on basically one result, that is not very consistent with the rest.

I wouldn't say her recent results are more like a fluke. Her last 3 international short programs have scored 81.53, 80.35, 78.86. Her last 3 international free skates have scored 151.77, 146.23, 141.60. She beat Kostornaia at Rostelcom last season, and Finlandia this season. And she beat Trusova at Rostelecom and Worlds.

I'm sure the minute Kostornaia or Trusova (or anyone) beats Tuktamysheva this season, people will say that indicates superiority over Liza. But it's not really fair that Liza has to beat Kostornaia and Trusova or others 3, 4 or more times for people to give her credence.

Also if you look at Liza's whole career, she is currently skating at her best, thanks to her consistent triple axel. I don't think she earned a personal best in the SP at Finlandia but it was definitely an 80+ program (something which Trusova has yet to do — her international SP PB hasn't even cleared 75 yet — and so far only Alena/Anna/Alina/Rika/Carolina have cleared 80; Alina/Carolina are out and Rika/Alena are struggling with their 3A). But no matter what you want to say about Liza's scoring, it's irrefutable that she did 3 triple axels at Finlandia and is in far better shape than Kostornaia currently is. Trusova is a wild card who does really well in Russia, and has ambitious content but she is so hit or miss and I wouldn't ever bet money on her. She can land 5 quads in a Russian competition, or skate like at the US Classic where she almost lost to Park.

As I joked, Liza could be on the podium at the Olympics and people would then only some people would even consider putting her in their top 5. She could win Olympic gold and maaaaaybe that would earn her top 3?! I get that she isn't artistically the best, nor she doesn't have a quad but neither does Kostornaia, and Kostornaia has an inconsistent axel at the moment (and her programs aren't particularly great yet this season), so as far as my own senior power rankings go, Liza's only behind Kamila and Anna.

I think a better way of looking at power rankings would be to ask who would you place money on right now to place higher or lower? Are you honestly willing to put money on Liza ending up behind Kostornaia or Trusova (or others people have placed Liza behind... e.g. Kihira/Sakamoto/Young/etc.). You'd think getting 220+ in all her internationals last year, including 2021 world silver, would change people's minds, but man, some of y'all are tough to please.

 

[Skatesocs]

She could win Olympic gold and maaaaaybe that would earn her people's top 3?!

Nah, top 6 at best

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Nah, top 6 at best

True. She would need to stick around after winning Beijing, win the next 4 Worlds and second Olympic gold to crack the top 3 power rankings.

 

[nussnacker]

I wouldn't say her recent results are more like a fluke. Her last 3 international short programs have scored 81.53, 80.35, 78.86. Her last 3 international free skates have scored 151.77, 146.23, 141.60. She beat Kostornaia at Rostelcom last season, and Finlandia this season. And she beat Trusova at Rostelecom and Worlds.

I'm sure the minute Kostornaia or Trusova (or anyone) beats Tuktamysheva this season, people will say that indicates superiority over Liza. But it's not really fair that Liza has to beat Kostornaia and Trusova or others 3, 4 or more times for people to give her credence.

Also if you look at Liza's whole career, she is currently skating at her best, thanks to her consistent triple axel. I don't think she earned a personal best in the SP at Finlandia but it was definitely an 80+ program (something which Trusova has yet to do — her international SP PB hasn't even cleared 75 yet — and so far only Alena/Anna/Alina/Rika/Carolina have cleared 80; Alina/Carolina are out and Rika/Alena are struggling with their 3A). But no matter what you want to say about Liza's scoring, it's irrefutable that she did 3 triple axels at Finlandia and is in far better shape than Kostornaia currently is. Trusova is a wild card who does really well in Russia, and has ambitious content but she is so hit or miss and I wouldn't ever bet money on her. She can land 5 quads in a Russian competition, or skate like at the US Classic where she almost lost to Park.

As I joked, Liza could be on the podium at the Olympics and people would then only some people would even consider putting her in their top 5. She could win Olympic gold and maaaaaybe that would earn her top 3?! I get that she isn't artistically the best, nor she doesn't have a quad but neither does Kostornaia, and Kostornaia has an inconsistent axel at the moment (and her programs aren't particularly great yet this season), so as far as my own senior power rankings go, Liza's only behind Kamila and Anna.

I think a better way of looking at power rankings would be to ask who would you place money on right now to place higher or lower? Are you honestly willing to put money on Liza ending up behind Kostornaia or Trusova (or others people have placed Liza behind... e.g. Kihira/Sakamoto/Young/etc.). You'd think getting 220+ in all her internationals last year, including 2021 world silver, would change people's minds, but man, some of y'all are tough to please.

Hey, just post your own rating and put her as top 3 I’m sure people be curious to see your take on this.

If someone else doesn’t think she’s top 3, they probably have their reasons for it. Here are mine: Liza won twice over Sasha and Aliona last season, but both were having VERY bad performances at that time. You know who also beat Sasha and Aliona last season? Gulyakova and Frolova. But I don’t see anyone saying that either has an Olympic medal in the bag, just because they beat Sasha and Aliona when they were at their lowest.

Sasha at Rostelecom had the worst performance of her career, and at worlds she had the worst short program of her career. So yeah, Liza won over her, but only when Sasha faltered really badly.
Aliona was also not doing great last year, and especially at Russian Cup final, where she had her worst performance in years. So Liza can win over them, but only if they are really struggling badly.

Whether they will still have the same level of performance as last year remains to be seen. I personally happen to think that this year both Sasha and Aliona will up their game significantly compared to last year. I don’t think Liza can up her performance level significantly compared to last year, because of different factors, including her coaching team’s decisions, layouts, endurance etc.

 

[flanker]

I wouldn't say her recent results are more like a fluke. Her last 3 international short programs have scored 81.53, 80.35, 78.86. Her last 3 international free skates have scored 151.77, 146.23, 141.60. She beat Kostornaia at Rostelcom last season, and Finlandia this season. And she beat Trusova at Rostelecom and Worlds.

I'm sure the minute Kostornaia or Trusova (or anyone) beats Tuktamysheva this season, people will say that indicates superiority over Liza. But it's not really fair that Liza has to beat Kostornaia and Trusova or others 3, 4 or more times for people to give her credence.

Also if you look at Liza's whole career, she is currently skating at her best, thanks to her consistent triple axel. I don't think she earned a personal best in the SP at Finlandia but it was definitely an 80+ program (something which Trusova has yet to do — her international SP PB hasn't even cleared 75 yet — and so far only Alena/Anna/Alina/Rika/Carolina have cleared 80; Alina/Carolina are out and Rika/Alena are struggling with their 3A). But no matter what you want to say about Liza's scoring, it's irrefutable that she did 3 triple axels at Finlandia and is in far better shape than Kostornaia currently is. Trusova is a wild card who does really well in Russia, and has ambitious content but she is so hit or miss and I wouldn't ever bet money on her. She can land 5 quads in a Russian competition, or skate like at the US Classic where she almost lost to Park.

As I joked, Liza could be on the podium at the Olympics and people would then only some people would even consider putting her in their top 5. She could win Olympic gold and maaaaaybe that would earn her top 3?! I get that she isn't artistically the best, nor she doesn't have a quad but neither does Kostornaia, and Kostornaia has an inconsistent axel at the moment (and her programs aren't particularly great yet this season), so as far as my own senior power rankings go, Liza's only behind Kamila and Anna.

I think a better way of looking at power rankings would be to ask who would you place money on right now to place higher or lower? Are you honestly willing to put money on Liza ending up behind Kostornaia or Trusova (or others people have placed Liza behind... e.g. Kihira/Sakamoto/Young/etc.). You'd think getting 220+ in all her internationals last year, including 2021 world silver, would change people's minds, but man, some of y'all are tough to please.

basically what @nussnacker has written. As for me, when Liza defeats clean Sasha/Aliona, then I'll put her into mine olympic team contenders. Or in case Sasha's/Aliona's difficulties will continue.

On the other hand, you can be assured that my recent predictions were usually not very succesful

 

[[email protected]]

My take on that is that Liza needs 2 230+ results during GP series. Then she is in no matter what she gets at Rusnats. I am sure that it is highly unlikely that any of non-Russian skaters can get 230 unless Rika comes to her senses.

But to do that Liza needs 3 more or less clean 3As and 3Lz-3T in both SP and FP. And, of course, no pops and falls. Well, she is more prone to the former than to the latter. Can she deliver? I am all for that although I am a bit skeptical.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

basically what @nussnacker has written. As for me, when Liza defeats clean Sasha/Aliona, then I'll put her into mine olympic team contenders. Or in case Sasha's/Aliona's difficulties will continue.

On the other hand, you can be assured that my recent predictions were usually not very succesful

Oh, come on. You'll only give Liza credit if she can defeat a clean Trusova (with 5 quads), knowing fully well that obviously Trusova with 5 clean quads would beat a clean Liza? Liza has defeated Trusova twice internationally now "Oh, but the only reason was because Trusova skated poorly and Liza skated well, otherwise Liza wouldn't have won."

One thing is for certain, a clean Trusova is hard to come by. What is Liza supposed to do, keep putting out strong performances and wait for Trusova to get it together in a competition they're both happen to be in internationally, before you give her credit? LOL, and let me guess - if Liza beats Aliona attempting just one 3A in her FS it won't be enough for you... only when Aliona manages a clean 3A in her SP and two clean 3A in her LP, and Liza manages to beat her, will you put Liza into your Olympic team contenders.

"I'll consider skater X a contender only if their competitors manage to cleanly execute all their planned content, and skater X still beats them — knowing fully well that if the competitors actually manage to skate cleanly then they will win. Of course, if skater X beats them and the competitors fail to execute their planned content cleanly, I'm just going to dismiss the result as a fluke for skater X, no matter how many times it happens."

 

[flanker]

Oh, come on. You'll only give Liza credit if she can defeat a clean Trusova (with 5 quads), knowing fully well that obviously Trusova with 5 clean quads would beat a clean Liza? Liza has defeated Trusova twice internationally now "Oh, but the only reason was because Trusova skated poorly and Liza skated well, otherwise Liza wouldn't have won."

One thing is for certain, a clean Trusova is hard to come by. What is Liza supposed to do, keep putting out strong performances and wait for Trusova to get it together in a competition they're both happen to be in internationally, before you give her credit? LOL, and let me guess - if Liza beats Aliona attempting just one 3A in her FS it won't be enough for you... only when Aliona manages a clean 3A in her SP and two clean 3A in her LP, and Liza manages to beat her, will you put Liza into your Olympic team contenders.

"I'll consider skater X a contender only if their competitors manage to cleanly execute all their planned content, and skater X still beats them — knowing fully well that if the competitors actually manage to skate cleanly then they will win. Of course, if skater X beats them and the competitors fail to execute their planned content cleanly, I'm just going to dismiss the result as a fluke for skater X, no matter how many times it happens."

I'm sorry but that's how the game of rankings works. It's not about "giving a credit". Eevery strength is relative to one's opponents strength and for Liza to be higher on the ranking list it is necessary the others fail at what they can do. Which is not impossible, but lays outside of her own actions.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Hey, just post your own rating and put her as top 3 I’m sure people be curious to see your take on this.

If someone else doesn’t think she’s top 3, they probably have their reasons for it. Here are mine: Liza won twice over Sasha and Aliona last season, but both were having VERY bad performances at that time. You know who also beat Sasha and Aliona last season? Gulyakova and Frolova. But I don’t see anyone saying that either has an Olympic medal in the bag, just because they beat Sasha and Aliona when they were at their lowest.

Sasha at Rostelecom had the worst performance of her career, and at worlds she had the worst short program of her career. So yeah, Liza won over her, but only when Sasha faltered really badly.
Aliona was also not doing great last year, and especially at Russian Cup final, where she had her worst performance in years. So Liza can win over them, but only if they are really struggling badly.

Whether they will still have the same level of performance as last year remains to be seen. I personally happen to think that this year both Sasha and Aliona will up their game significantly compared to last year. I don’t think Liza can up her performance level significantly compared to last year, because of different factors, including her coaching team’s decisions, layouts, endurance etc.

Guliakova beat Trusova by a tenth of a point with a sub-200 score. That is very different than Liza beating Trusova with a score of 223 to 198 at Rostelecom and 3.26 points at WC 2021 (and sure Trusova wasn't great there, but Liza fell and didn't skate her best either).

Trusova could do her recent 5-quad skate or her US Classic/Worlds skate, so she's wildly inconsistent. Also, she has had 8 international short programs and has not managed to clear 75 points in any of them, whereas Liza has cleared above 78 in her last three, and above 80 in the last two which were non-Russian internationals.

It is also very trivializing to a skater to be like "They can only win if someone else struggles. So anytime you do win against someone who struggles I'm just going to dismiss it." Liza isn't being handed wins - she's landed 3As left right and centre. She's upgraded her 3-3. She's doing her things - not her fault if others aren't doing theirs. Using results from a while ago isn't a good barometer either - we could then say the only reason Tennell/Young isn't a world silver medalist or Kihira isn't a World gold medalist is because they didn't skate as well at Worlds 2021 as they did at 2020 Four Continents.

The point of power rankings is to show who at the MOMENT you think is best in the world. If skaters are struggling, they shouldn't be ranked higher than skaters who are slaying just because their scoring potential or past skates are better. As you said Trusova/Kostornaia have yet to exhibit if they can show, internationally, the level of performance as their 2019-2020 season, but until they DO do that, edge to Tuktamysheva for the moment. It is astonishing that Alena attempted only one triple axel in Finlandia and wasn't even close, and yet Liza did THREE of them and yet people are still holding Kostornaia in higher regard.

My power rankings right now:
1. Valieva
2. Shcherbakova
3. Tuktamysheva
4. Trusova
5. Kostornaia
6. Liu
7. Sakamoto
8. Kihira
9. Hendrickx
10. Higuchi

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I'm sorry but that's how the game of rankings works. It's not about "giving a credit". Eevery strength is relative to one's opponents strength and for Liza to be higher on the ranking list it is necessary the others fail at what they can do. Which is not impossible, but lays outside of her own actions.

The point of rankings is based on who is doing well at the moment, and internationally at that. Not who has the best scoring potential or who slayed some Russian domestic competition — or won the GPF or Skate Canada a year and a half ago.

This isn't about giving Liza "credit" - it's acknowledging that she has had 3 clean SPs and scored above 220 in her most recent three international events, and has beaten Trusoava/Kostornaia in their most recent head to head, and is CONSISTENT. Trusova was mediocre in both US Classic and Worlds 2021. It's also acknowledging that Trusova struggled at US classic and Kostornaia struggled at FInlandia and hasn't returned to form. Again, you don't rank someone higher because of what they HAVE done or CAN do, but rather what they ARE doing.

Maybe a better question for you: how many times are Trusova/Kostornaia allowed to falter before they drop in the rankings? Or are we always going to rank them higher than Tuktamysheva because of their past performances and theoretical jumping/scoring potential?

 

[nussnacker]

Oh, come on. You'll only give Liza credit if she can defeat a clean Trusova (with 5 quads),

I don’t know if you’re misunderstanding… but that’s not what the argument is.

And why does it matter if people on the internet put Liza on their imaginary team or not? We’re not making any of the decisions, you know that right? It’s just a subjective opinion, nothing more.

The thing is… Sasha doesn’t have to be clean with 5 quads to beat Liza. No one says so. She just has to do a SP, where she doesn’t lose the combo and a FS where she doesn’t fall 5 times and gets 6 deductions. In fact, she can do 2 clean quads and no 3A SP, and Liza won’t be able to touch her. Period. We’ve seen that happen.
Aliona, if she lands a single 3A and does everything else clean, but with the same quality as she can do it, will easily beat Liza.

You apparently think Sasha will be consistently either going without a combo in SP, or doing a FS with 6 deductions. Or that Aliona will be doing -eu-2Sal and 3F-2Ts like she did last season, or constantly getting 3Lz+REP? I happen to think they’ll do better than that this season. Difference in opinion, I suppose. We’ll see who’ll be closer to the reality when it actually happens.

Also, she has had 8 international short programs and has not managed to clear 75 points in any of them, whereas Liza has cleared above 78 in her last three, and above 80 in the last two which were non-Russian internationals.

I think it’s very convenient that you’re taking 2 last competitions. WTT which overscores everyone majorly, and Finland, where she received astronomical PCS, which frankly were very generous particularly to her. Let’s see if she will continue to receive 35 and 73 as PCS, I happen to doubt it.
Since international competitions were very rare last season, why not take a look to other competitions where she lost to Daria and Maiia multiple times? Liza didn’t lose to them on international scene, because they didn’t have a single international competition.

It is also very trivializing to a skater to be like "They can only win if someone else struggles. So anytime you do win against someone who struggles I'm just going to dismiss it." Liza isn't being handed wins - she's landed 3As left right and centre. She's upgraded her 3-3. She's doing her things - not her fault if others aren't doing theirs.

No one’s trivializing her. No one said those wins were handed to her. She did her things at the right moment, and Sasha and Aliona didn’t deliver at that moment. IN MY OPINION, Sasha and Aliona will upgrade more than Liza is capable of, and will start delivering. I can’t predict the future, but this is what I think will happen. I don’t think Rostelecom and Russian Cup Final last season are a fair assessment of their potential this season. I see bigger potential in them, you don’t, I get it. The discussion can end right here. I don’t know why you’re trying to convince people to change their minds on this, as it doesn’t affect anything.

 

[nussnacker]

The point of rankings is based on who is doing well at the moment, and internationally at that. Not who has the best scoring potential or who slayed some Russian domestic competition — or won the GPF or Skate Canada a year and a half ago.

If it’s “in the moment” and you say skaters who are struggling should not be assessed higher, why do you even have Anna in there? She showed up at test skates with no quads and only 3-3 and didn’t even do a 3-3 in the short. You’re kind of contradicting your own point with this, you know. In your Rankings Anna then should be way below, as she didn’t show even 1 quad yet.

I’m personally assessing their standings for the whole season ahead. You can do an assessment based on whatever principle you want I just don’t see why any subjective ranking is offensive or not acknowledging something.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I don’t know if you’re misunderstanding… but that’s not what the argument is.

And why does it matter if people on the internet put Liza on their imaginary team or not? We’re not making any of the decisions, you know that right? It’s just a subjective opinion, nothing more.

The thing is… Sasha doesn’t have to be clean with 5 quads to beat Liza. No one says so. She just has to do a SP, where she doesn’t lose the combo and a FS where she doesn’t fall 5 times and gets 6 deductions. In fact, she can do 2 clean quads and no 3A SP, and Liza won’t be able to touch her. Period. We’ve seen that happen.
Aliona, if she lands a single 3A and does everything else clean, but with the same quality as she can do it, will easily beat Liza.

You apparently think Sasha will be consistently either going without a combo in SP, or doing a FS with 6 deductions. Or that Aliona will be doing -eu-2Sal and 3F-2Ts like she did last season, or constantly getting 3Lz+REP? I happen to think they’ll do better than that this season. Difference in opinion, I suppose. We’ll see who’ll be closer to the reality when it actually happens.



I think it’s very convenient that you’re taking 2 last competitions. WTT which overscores everyone majorly, and Finland, where she received astronomical PCS, which frankly were very generous particularly to her. Let’s see if she will continue to receive 35 and 73 as PCS, I happen to doubt it.
Since international competitions were very rare last season, why not take a look to other competitions where she lost to Daria and Maiia multiple times? Liza didn’t lose to them on international scene, because they didn’t have a single international competition.

No one’s trivializing her. No one said those wins were handed to her. She did her things at the right moment, and Sasha and Aliona didn’t deliver at that moment. IN MY OPINION, Sasha and Aliona will upgrade more than Liza is capable of, and will start delivering. I can’t predict the truth, but this is what I think will happen. I don’t think Rostelecom and Russian Cup Final last season are a fair assessment of their potential this season. I see bigger potential in them, you don’t, I get it. The discussion can end right here. I don’t know why you’re trying to convince people to change their minds on this, as it doesn’t affect anything.

TBH, taking the most recent/current competitions is more suitable than taking 2019-2020 competitions as your barometer for current power rankings.

And if someone's opinion is that Tukt is ranked lower than Sasha/Aliona, that's fine. But to say you'll only consider Liza as better than Sasha if Sasha goes clean, knowing that if Sasha goes clean she will do better, is unreasonable. It means that no matter what Liza does or how consistent/well she skates, she will always be held in lower regard because of how much Sasha could potentially score over her - even if Sasha isn't delivering.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

If it’s “in the moment” and you say skaters who are struggling should not be assessed higher, why do you even have Anna in there? She showed up at test skates with no quads and only 3-3 and didn’t even do a 3-3 in the short. You’re kind of contradicting your own point with this, you know. In your Rankings Anna then should be way below, as she didn’t show even 1 quad yet.

I’m personally assessing their standings for the whole season ahead. You can do an assessment based on whatever principle you want I just don’t see why any subjective ranking is offensive or not acknowledging something.

Because I don't pay a ton of heed to domestic test skates when comparing skaters on the whole internationally. After all, skaters from Gold to Trusova have skated well domestically but they are inconsistent internationally.

Scherbackova hasn't skated internationally yet, so it would be preliminary to assess her based on a test skate, the same way a test skate where Trusova does 5 quads doesn't mean she won't ultimately have a skate like Worlds or US Classic.

If your power rankings were about the season ahead, here's a question: did US Classic or Finlandia have any effect on your ranking of Trusova or Kostornaia? Or was it a completely negligible event, even though they are actual international competitions? Finlandia in particular was a strong head to head event to kick off the season.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The thing is… Sasha doesn’t have to be clean with 5 quads to beat Liza. No one says so. She just has to do a SP, where she doesn’t lose the combo and a FS where she doesn’t fall 5 times and gets 6 deductions. In fact, she can do 2 clean quads and no 3A SP, and Liza won’t be able to touch her. Period. We’ve seen that happen.
Aliona, if she lands a single 3A and does everything else clean, but with the same quality as she can do it, will easily beat Liza.

You apparently think Sasha will be consistently either going without a combo in SP, or doing a FS with 6 deductions. Or that Aliona will be doing -eu-2Sal and 3F-2Ts like she did last season, or constantly getting 3Lz+REP? I happen to think they’ll do better than that this season. Difference in opinion, I suppose. We’ll see who’ll be closer to the reality when it actually happens.

It is both true that Sasha and Alena have higher scoring potential than Liza AND Liza is still outscoring them by skating closer to her best ability. Alena hasn't skated a good LP in a long time and Sasha can make very costly mistakes (i.e. doubling a planned 4T) aside from falling that can't be made up with other jumping passes on the fly. Things may come together for those two, but I wouldn't assume it will happen.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

It is both true that Sasha and Alena have higher scoring potential than Liza AND Liza is still outscoring them by skating closer to her best ability. Alena hasn't skated a good LP in a long time and Sasha can make very costly mistakes (i.e. doubling a planned 4T) aside from falling that can't be made up with other jumping passes on the fly. Things may come together for those two, but I wouldn't assume it will happen.

Precisely.

If Trusova lands 5 quads in her next GP event or Kostornaia nails her triple axels, sure I'll update my rankings accordingly, but I'm not going to preliminarily award a skater a higher ranked position because of something they have yet to exhibit internationally this year. And I do still look at domestic competitions but also acknowledge it is a very controlled environment without international judging scrutiny so skaters who know how to deliver internationally might not really care if they don't have the goods yet, whereas other skaters may skate lights out in the comfort of home, only to falter internationally.

The only reason Trusova is in 4th in my power rankings and not lower, frankly, is her recent 5 quad skate. But international competitions hold more weight for an international power ranking, and that US Classic or recent Worlds SP/FS can't be overlooked either, and that's just my way of doing it. I am taking potential into account but it's not a primary determinant by any means. For example Liu is lower than Kostornaia even though she has a higher season's best. Sakamoto is higher than Higuchi even though she was outscored at the Japan Open by Higuchi. I'm trying to take multiple, recent competitions into account, as well as look at the skater's programs and where I think the skater is currently at, on an international scale. For me a ranking is how I'd personally anticipate an international competition senior to go if it happened the day I posted the rankings. They aren't rankings as to who I think will make the Olympic team or who will medal at the next Worlds. And I certainly don't pay heed to past performances a whole lot - skaters like Liu, Kihira, and Kostornaia are all skaters who lit it up in earlier seasons, especially technically speaking, but due to injury/puberty/etc. have regressed in that department so it would be silly of me to rank them based on what I've been impressed by in the past rather than what I can expect from the present.

Everyone's welcome to rank how they wish, but it seems some are ranking based on what could happen or what they hope to happen instead of what has been recently happening.

 

[nussnacker]

It is both true that Sasha and Alena have higher scoring potential than Liza AND Liza is still outscoring them by skating closer to her best ability. Alena hasn't skated a good LP in a long time and Sasha can make very costly mistakes (i.e. doubling a planned 4T) aside from falling that can't be made up with other jumping passes on the fly. Things may come together for those two, but I wouldn't assume it will happen.

Okay, you wouldn’t, I would that works for me.


I’m not taking just their raw scoring potential into account, I’m also making an assumption on how I expect them to hit it. If I was just talking about just raw potential, then Trusova would be #1 on my list. I expect her to falter at times, that’s why she’s #3/4, I just don’t expect her to consistently do as badly as she did as Rostelecom

 

[nussnacker]

If your power rankings were about the season ahead, here's a question: did US Classic or Finlandia have any effect on your ranking of Trusova or Kostornaia? Or was it a completely negligible event, even though they are actual international competitions? Finlandia in particular was a strong head to head event to kick off the season.

Yes it did, it’s not completely negligible. If I chose to neglect them, Sasha would be #1 on my list, and Aliona #3/4.
I just take into account that a) it’s still early in the season b) for Aliona this is the first competition in a long time after a bad year c) for Sasha the competition was very close to test skates and across the world

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Okay, you wouldn’t, I would that works for me.


I’m not taking just their raw scoring potential into account, I’m also making an assumption on how I expect them to hit it. If I was just talking about just raw potential, then Trusova would be #1 on my list. I expect her to falter at times, that’s why she’s #3/4, I just don’t expect her to consistently do as badly as she did as Rostelecom

But she has had sub-220 in her last 3 internationals. Rostelecom, Worlds, and US Classic.

And yeah, if we were talking about scoring potential, Trusova would rival Valieva. But Trusova doesn't have a consistent 3A yet, nor has she been able to produce the performances she had in her 2019-2020 season internationally yet. It's like when she goes to international competition she gets nervous or takes the foot off the gas, or something.