2021-22 Women's Skating Predictions and Rankings

[Joekaz]

Are you sure *you’re* the one not watching? Liu has the 9th best total score this season and has consistently posted scores above 200 and isn’t even skating as well as she can. She’s dropped a couple places in my rankings because of a ho hum Grand Prix but she’s still top 10 material (and not just because she’s posted, literally, a top 10 total score).

Maybe not top 5 at Russian nationals but won’t make top 5 at Japanese Nationals?! Lol. Please. There aren’t even 5 Japanese skaters in the top 20 personal best total scores this season. Even USA’s Levito has a higher PB total score from the juniors than Kawabe (4th best Japanese total score) and Higuchi (5th best Japanese total score) so far this season.

http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2021-22/sbtswto.htm

Exactly proving my point by looking at scores and not performances

Are you sure *you’re* the one not watching? Liu has the 9th best total score this season and has consistently posted scores above 200 and isn’t even skating as well as she can. She’s dropped a couple places in my rankings because of a ho hum Grand Prix but she’s still top 10 material (and not just because she’s posted, literally, a top 10 total score).

Maybe not top 5 at Russian nationals but won’t make top 5 at Japanese Nationals?! Lol. Please. There aren’t even 5 Japanese skaters in the top 20 personal best total scores this season. Even USA’s Levito has a higher PB total score from the juniors than Kawabe (4th best Japanese total score) and Higuchi (5th best Japanese total score) so far this season.

http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2021-22/sbtswto.htm

Proving my point. I said watch the skater, not read the scores. We know how accurate the scoring is,especially when your #1 for a major fed.

 

[Joekaz]

Probably just basing it off of season’s best. It’s that list basically with Kostornaia and Sakamoto switched along with Khromykh and Hendrickx, plus Usacheva and juniors taken out

Remember at a nationals competition URs on the favored skaters aren’t called much so Liu scoring 220+ is certainly possible at both American and Japanese nationals.

Thats why I said watch the skater. The scores are bogus more often than not. You must not watch Japanese nationals much. They are generally very strict except for their few favorites. Sort of the way many GP events are with Russians. Lol

 

[lurkerghost1]

Thats why I said watch the skater. The scores are bogus more often than not. You must not watch Japanese nationals much. They are generally very strict except for their few favorites. Sort of the way many GP events are with Russians. Lol

not lately though. The 18-19 championship was pretty generous with both Miyahara and Mihara above 220. and last year satoko scored 143 free skate with a fall

 

[lurkerghost1]

I may be impressed with her latest success and sympathize with her, but in no existing universe should Loena Hendrickx be put above Kaori Sakamoto in a power ranking. Even if we play pure numbers game, she prevails atm.

it's not that outrageous. the judges outside of Japan don't like Kaori nearly as much. Loena with a fall at Worlds beat Kaori with 0 falls, just a few rough landings on jumps. Really of all the ridiculous rankings people pots here, Sakamoto and Hendrickx are probably the most exchangeable as they are at present the two top women in the world without 3A/quad

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Are you sure you’re the one not watching? Liu has the 9th best total score this season and has consistently posted scores above 200 and isn’t even skating as well as she can. She’s dropped a couple places in my rankings because of a ho hum Grand Prix but she’s still top 10 material (and not just because she’s posted, literally, a top 10 total score).

Maybe not top 5 at Russian nationals but won’t make top 5 at Japanese Nationals?! Lol. Please.

Exactly proving my point by looking at scores and not performances
Proving my point. I said watch the skater, not read the scores. We know how accurate the scoring is,especially when your #1 for a major fed.

Not sure if your point is proven - Liu was 4th at Nationals last year. I would say she is arguably the top US skater at the moment but wouldn’t want to base that off scores or anything...

Would be interested in knowing who your top 10 ranking is Joe? I think we would all be utterly shocked if you included even one non-Russian/Japanese in it.

 

[Joekaz]

not lately though. The 18-19 championship was pretty generous with both Miyahara and Mihara above 220. and last year satoko scored 143 free skate with a fall

Im sure there are some exceptions, but again if you actually watch the competition you will see a clear difference in what some skaters get away with and others don't. This isn't unique to Japan btw, as Im sure you know. Satoko has long been one of JSFs favorites obviously,as has Sakamoto. This year Mihara seems to be getting alot of love as well. Im not saying they don't inflate some scores, but that they are harsh with everyone else. Unless Liu were a favorite, the judges would savage her under rotated jumps and juniorish PCS.

 

[Joekaz]

Not sure if your point is proven - Liu was 4th at Nationals last year. I would say she is arguably the top US skater at the moment but wouldn’t want to base that off scores or anything...

Would be interested in knowing who your top 10 ranking is Joe? I think we would all be utterly shocked if you included even one non-Russian/Japanese in it.

Leona has seemed to be much better this season and Young You has looked good. Liu looked good earlier, but seems to have regressed despite lenient judging. But in general the Russians, obviously, and the Japanese are generally the best women, as has been the case for a long time now. You can however criticize the Japanese for underperforming in big competitions over the years though.

 

[macy]

You put Sakamoto twice.

shoot, i thought i got rid of the duplicates

 

[Joekaz]

shoot, i thought i got rid of the duplicates

They plague me here as well.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Leona has seemed to be much better this season and Young You has looked good. Liu looked good earlier, but seems to have regressed despite lenient judging. But in general the Russians, obviously, and the Japanese are generally the best women, as has been the case for a long time now. You can however criticize the Japanese for underperforming in big competitions over the years though.

I don't think Liu has regressed considerably, although I question her extremely ambitious backloading content and think it's detrimental to her. She could have easily gotten silver at NHK if she just played it safer/smarter. It's just two competitions and her SPs have been solid. Even at Lombardia she wasn't clean but still got a personal best and 144.

As for lenient judging, as an example, Warsaw Cup had some of the most lenient judging ever, and Kromykh pulled a 194 and was behind Kurakova in the FS (and Kurakova herself had errors). She doubled the 3-3 to a 3-2 in her SP and in her FS she had a stepout, two falls, several rotation errors, ho-hum spins, and her skating was slow and laboured. That still doesn't immediately put her out of the top 10 for me, even though several non-top 10 skaters have outperformed her Warsaw Cup efforts. But if she flubs at Rostelecom she's probably killed any Olympic hopes.

As for the Japanese women, they are simply not lighting it up. Sakamoto is very hit or miss, as is Higuchi. Kihira is on the mend. Miyahara is no longer in her prime. Kawabe has actually been fairly solid technically but she's too far back artistically to be particularly competitive. Mai has probably the most potential other than Kaori but the judges aren't a fan of hers as much as they should be. Japan is still ahead of the US overall, but I wouldn't say they "generally the best women" at this point as that would imply that they deserve to be lumped in with the Russians who are light years ahead of them. Real tea, the Japanese women are edging out the US for the distinction of "generally the second-best women", at this point.

 

[Joekaz]

I don't think Liu has regressed considerably, although I question her extremely ambitious backloading content and think it's detrimental to her. She could have easily gotten silver at NHK if she just played it safer/smarter. It's just two competitions and her SPs have been solid. Even at Lombardia she wasn't clean but still got a personal best and 144.

As for lenient judging, as an example, Warsaw Cup had some of the most lenient judging ever, and Kromykh pulled a 194 and was behind Kurakova in the FS (and Kurakova herself had errors). She doubled the 3-3 to a 3-2 in her SP and in her FS she had a stepout, two falls, several rotation errors, ho-hum spins, and her skating was slow and laboured. That still doesn't immediately put her out of the top 10 for me, even though several non-top 10 skaters have outperformed her Warsaw Cup efforts. But if she flubs at Rostelecom she's probably killed any Olympic hopes.

As for the Japanese women, they are simply not lighting it up. Sakamoto is very hit or miss, as is Higuchi. Kihira is on the mend. Miyahara is no longer in her prime. Kawabe has actually been fairly solid technically but she's too far back artistically to be particularly competitive. Japan is still ahead of the US overall, but I wouldn't say they "generally the best women" at this point as that would imply that they deserve to be lumped in with the Russians who are light years ahead of them. Real tea, the Japanese women are edging out the US for the distinction of "generally the second-best women", at this point.

Im not particularly a Sakamoto fan, but she is one of the most consistent skaters there is. Saying she is hit and miss makes me question your opinion here. Every woman you named is superior to Liu, and you forgot Matsuike, who is also better, although she has been dealing with an ankle injury this season. You evidently don't watch the Japanese much, that's ok, I don't watch Canadians either(are there any?) Liu is US number 1,but is a bad jumper and very juniorish.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Im not particularly a Sakamoto fan, but she is one of the most consistent skaters there is. Saying she is hit and miss makes me question your opinion here. Every woman you named is superior to Liu, and you forgot Matsuike, who is also better, although she has been dealing with an ankle injury this season. You evidently don't watch the Japanese much, that's ok, I don't watch Canadians either(are there any?) Liu is US number 1,but is a bad jumper and very juniorish.

Sakamoto's last results:

NHK: 223.84
SA: 215.93
Asian Open: 202.28
WTT: 228.07
Worlds: 207.80
NHK: 229.51

I mean, Kaori's high scoring events have all been in Japan, and she has an upwards trajectory, so maybe she'll do well at the GPF, and it's also why I've placed her so high in my own top 10. I'm just saying the Japanese women as a whole don't have a particularly reliable skater on their roster at the moment, but Sakamoto is clearly the best of them.

I do watch the Japanese skaters and have great respect for their training and talents, but I also call a spade a spade. They're just not serving it right now. Liu isn't the greatest jumper post-puberty but she's still going for a 3A and regaining her difficulty and going for one of the hardest non-quad layouts. As far as being juniorish, she got a PCS personal bests of 33.28/69.20 at NHK/Lombardia so I'd say she's out of junior-scoring mode (she's certainly less juniorish than several of the Russian/Japanese skaters). I know you disregard the scoring but if we're talking about rankings, eventually you have to pull your head out of the sand and acknowledge that she's getting the scoring that's worthy of a top 10 skaters (of course, whether you'd agree that she deserves it or not is on you), but the judges are on her side and tbh she has shown a lot of improvement.

And Matsuike better than Liu?! Is this the same Rino Matsuike whose best international score isn't even above 200 and placed 16 points behind Liu at NHK - where she scored (on home ice) PCS personal bests of 30.92/62.06 compared to Liu who has scored above 200 in every one of her senior internationals, and has PCS personal bests of 33.28/69.20?! C'mon, tell us another one!

Oh, and yes, there are Canadian skaters - no top contenders atm, but Schizas did beat Kawabe at SC earlier this season, and also beat Miyahara by 13 points at the 2021 World Championships, mind you.

 

[Joekaz]

Sakamoto's last results:

NHK: 223.84
SA: 215.93
Asian Open: 202.28
WTT: 228.07
Worlds: 207.80
NHK: 229.51

I mean, Kaori's high scoring events have all been in Japan, and she has an upwards trajectory, so maybe she'll do well at the GPF, and it's also why I've placed her so high in my own top 10. I'm just saying the Japanese women as a whole don't have a particularly reliable skater on their roster at the moment, but Sakamoto is clearly the best of them.

I do watch the Japanese skaters and have great respect for their training and talents, but I also call a spade a spade. They're just not serving it right now. Liu isn't the greatest jumper post-puberty but she's still going for a 3A and regaining her difficulty and going for one of the hardest non-quad layouts. As far as being juniorish, she got a PCS personal bests of 33.28/69.20 at NHK/Lombardia so I'd say she's out of junior-scoring mode (she's certainly less juniorish than several of the Russian/Japanese skaters). I know you disregard the scoring but if we're talking about rankings, eventually you have to pull your head out of the sand and acknowledge that she's getting the scoring that's worthy of a top 10 skaters (of course, whether you'd agree that she deserves it or not is on you), but the judges are on her side and tbh she has shown a lot of improvement.

And Matsuike better than Liu?! Is this the same Rino Matsuike whose best international score isn't even above 200 and placed 16 points behind Liu at NHK - where she scored (on home ice) PCS personal bests of 30.92/62.06 compared to Liu who has scored above 200 in every one of her senior internationals, and has PCS personal bests of 33.28/69.20?! C'mon, tell us another one!

Oh, and yes, there are Canadian skaters - no top contenders atm, but Schizas did beat Kawabe at SC earlier this season, and also beat Miyahara by 13 points at the 2021 World Championships, mind you.

Evidently you are a much better reader of scores than fan of good skating. There is nothing more for me to say. Next you will tell me how great Karen Chen is because she was 4th at World's. Good grief.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Evidently you are a much better reader of scores than fan of good skating. There is nothing more for me to say. Next you will tell me how great Karen Chen is because she was 4th at World's. Good grief.

Why would I say that? Karen was 4th at Worlds (was gifted a PB/non-UR-call in the short and should have been 6th behind Hendrickx/Sakamoto, IMO). Chen she hasn't lit it up this season, scoring sub-200 in both her GP events. Notice how she's not on my top 10 list, nor should she be. Artistically she is miles ahead of most of the Japanese skaters (a la Miyahara), but technically she still has many issues she hasn't managed to overcome.

Yeah I know - I believe in Alysa - who is American - but am not gushing over Karen who is American and even saying she should have been lower at Worlds and the Americans were gifted a 3rd spot. How can this be, saying something good about an American but also saying something bad about Americans?! This must be so confusing to you!

I'm a fan of good skating — whether it comes from Japanese (or Russians... or anyone else). And I try to be fair with skaters across the board, instead of automatically say my faves (or fave countries) can do no wrong or say my faves' rivals/rival countries can do no right. I'm no fan of Liu's skating but appreciate her gumption to go for high tech and make artistic improvements. I'm not a huge fan of Trusova's skating but she's one of my faves simply because of her tech ability and ambitious layouts. There are artistic skaters like Brown who lack the tech but still entertain me with their skating. There are skaters from every nationality who I like and don't like - and that might be dependent on the program or the season.

I can clearly tell from this thread and others that certain people care quite a bit about the stripes of a skater -- thank goodness Valieva isn't American otherwise she'd automatically be booted out of their top 10. Good grief!

 

[Joekaz]

Why would I say that? Karen was 4th at Worlds (was gifted a PB/non-UR-call in the short and should have been 6th behind Hendrickx/Sakamoto, IMO). Chen she hasn't lit it up this season, scoring sub-200 in both her GP events. Notice how she's not on my top 10 list, nor should she be. Artistically she is miles ahead of most of the Japanese skaters (a la Miyahara), but technically she still has many issues she hasn't managed to overcome.

I'm a fan of good skating — whether it comes from Japanese (or Russians... or anyone else). Are you?

Of course, thats why I realize Liu doesn't belong in the top 10 and she is miles behind many Japanese, both technically and artisticlly.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Of course, thats why I realize Liu doesn't belong in the top 10 and she is miles behind many Japanese, both technically and artisticlly.

LOL, you suggest Matsuike is currently better.

You don't have to agree with scores or others' opinions, but your baseline is negative bias against Liu to the point that in spite of her having the 9th best total score, you would deem her worse than a skater with the 44th best total score. That's a tough one to walk back from.

And that has everything to do with your dislike of American skaters (how dare anyone put one in their top ten!) and your clear affinity for Japanese skaters.

Humour me: where would you rank Liu if not in the top 10.... top 15? Top 30? Top 44? (And while we're at, what should her rank be if she suddenly competed for Japan? )

 

[lurkerghost1]

LOL, you suggest Matsuike is currently better.

You don't have to agree with scores or others' opinions, but your baseline is negative bias against Liu to the point that in spite of her having the 9th best total score, you would deem her worse than a skater with the 44th best total score. That's a tough one to walk back from.

And that has everything to do with your dislike of American skaters (how dare anyone put one in their top ten!) and your clear affinity for Japanese skaters.

Humour me: where would you rank Liu if not in the top 10.... top 15? Top 30? Top 44? (And while we're at, what should her rank be if she suddenly competed for Japan? )

well to be fair the Lombardia score is quite the outlier for her. one score of 219 vs. four scores between 202 and 207. If we simply excluded Lombardia she would be ranked 19th including juniors which I would say is more realistic than 9th. If we take out juniors she is ranked 8th right now but would be 14th without Lombardia. As I said earlier I think Liu will finish top 6 at the Olympics, but if you asked me to rank her among all senior ladies without 3-per-country she would be behind the top 7 senior Russians, Sakamoto, Hendrickx, Young, and maybe Mihara and Higuchi. So 11th-13th? I do think she is ahead of Miyahara, Kawabe, and Sinitsyna though

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

well to be fair the Lombardia score is quite the outlier for her. one score of 219 vs. four scores between 202 and 207. If we simply excluded Lombardia she would be ranked 19th including juniors which I would say is more realistic than 9th. If we take out juniors she is ranked 8th right now but would be 14th without Lombardia. As I said earlier I think Liu will finish top 6 at the Olympics, but if you asked me to rank her among all senior ladies without 3-per-country she would be behind the top 7 senior Russians, Sakamoto, Hendrickx, Young, and maybe Mihara and Higuchi. So 11th-13th? I do think she is ahead of Miyahara, Kawabe, and Sinitsyna though

I agree with you about Sakamoto/Hendrickx (and had them higher than Liu in the top 10).

A case could be made for Mihara, who is gaining momentum and scored above 200 every time; if she gets it together and has JSF backing she could edge out Liu, but I'm not sold yet. It's like Mai has to skate pretty much clean to get to be on par with what Alysa's getting with errors. Mai's biggest issue is that she's solid but doesn't have the X factor/fire that other skaters have.

Not sure the rationale behind Young/Higuchi supplanting Liu, if you apply the same rationale that you're using with Liu (removing the best score/"best outlier" and seeing what's left):

- If we took away the best of Young's scores (216.97 at Skate America), you'd be left with scores of 203.60 (NHK) and 180.25 (Autumn Classic).

- If we took away the best of Higuchi (who I did have in my top 10 before, maybe rather prematurely/optimistically), her best score is 205.27 (CS Austria), and she'd be left with 204.91 (IdF) and and 189.43 (SC). Alysa's first, second and third and fourth SB scores (219.24, 207.40, 206.53, 205.74) are all better than Higuchi's season's best.

 

[Joekaz]

I agree with you about Sakamoto/Hendrickx (and had them higher than Liu in the top 10).

A case could be made for Mihara, who is gaining momentum and scored above 200 every time; if she gets it together and has JSF backing she could edge out Liu, but I'm not sold yet. It's like Mai has to skate pretty much clean to get to be on par with what Alysa's getting with errors. Mai's biggest issue is that she's solid but doesn't have the X factor/fire that other skaters have.

Not sure the rationale behind Young/Higuchi supplanting Liu, if you apply the same rationale that you're using with Liu (removing the best score/"best outlier" and seeing what's left):

- If we took away the best of Young's scores (216.97 at Skate America), you'd be left with scores of 203.60 (NHK) and 180.25 (Autumn Classic).

- If we took away the best of Higuchi (who I did have in my top 10 before, maybe rather prematurely/optimistically), her best score is 205.27 (CS Austria), and she'd be left with 204.91 (IdF) and and 189.43 (SC). Alysa's first, second and third and fourth SB scores (219.24, 207.40, 206.53, 205.74) are all better than Higuchi's season's best.

Please watch them skate. The scoring in this sport makes professional wrestling blush. You can't watch the top 5 or 6 Japanese girls skate and tell me Liu is at their level. Watch Matsuike's deep edges and the way she floats for 2 minutes and she shames Liu on skating ability. Stop reading scores and watch some skating. That said, Im talking mostly about physical ability here. Admittedly, the Japanese have grossly underperformed in big competitions lately, so they are due some criticism. What Im saying is if you simply watch them all skate and put your bias aside, you will surely agree with me here.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Please watch them skate. The scoring in this sport makes professional wrestling blush. You can't watch the top 5 or 6 Japanese girls skate and tell me Liu is at their level. Watch Matsuike's deep edges and the way she floats for 2 minutes and she shames Liu on skating ability. Stop reading scores and watch some skating. That said, Im talking mostly about physical ability here. Admittedly, the Japanese have grossly underperformed in big competitions lately, so they are due some criticism. What Im saying is if you simply watch them all skate and put your bias aside, you will surely agree with me here.

I have. Matsuike has nice skating skills and lovely arms but I think Liu has better expression and projection. Matsuike has very tidy skating but I'm not excited by her yet. There's something generic about her, and she loses steam towards the end of her programs, which adversely affects her jumps. She has potential, but she's not better than Liu IMO.

You also don't have to patronize me. Just because I disagree with you doesn't mean I'm not watching the skating. I could just as easily retort that while you might be watching, you're never actually watching with your bias aside (which you've definitely made clear affects your assessment of these skaters). You might say the top 5 or 6 Japanese girls skate better than Liu, which is correct if the Japanese girls actually complete their tech content but that rarely happens. You admit that the Japanese have grossly underperformed in big competitions lately and yet you seem so assured that they deserve to be in the top 10 or ahead of Liu, who has underperformed but still consistently cleared 200s which not many Japanese skaters can boast this season. You might like the skating of those Japanese skaters more than Liu, which is fair, but that doesn't rank them ahead of her. For example, Miyahara is miles ahead of Liu artistically, but I wouldn't rank her higher given her technical struggles. Kihira is a better skater than Liu, but she's injured and having learned that she's barely jumping lutzes and flips, let alone 3A/quads, I would currently rank her behind Liu. Rankings are about results/placement/positions, not necessarily who the best figure skater on their best day is. Otherwise Kostornaia should be higher because of her potential, and skaters like Daleman might be in the top 10 if they were in their prime. You have to look at the current state of affairs.