2021-22 Russian Women's Figure Skating

[Jontor]

Where is Sofia Akateva?

She will not be a senior Nats. RusFed has new rules that states that you must be 14 by July 1st.

 

[Azikin]

It's crazy that a wonderful skater like Sinitsyna might not even make the Top 10!!!

And former European Champion 14th...

 

[DougDorsey]

Has RusFed actually indicated what its Olympic team selection process and criteria will be?

I've heard endless contrasting opinions, from those speculating that the team is already basically decided (with most folks pointing to Kami, Anya, and Liza) to those who say it won't be decided until after Euros (which seems impractical as the turnaround between Euros and the Olympics is so short), as well as some saying RusNats will be the main deciding factor to those who say RusNats won't make much of a difference at this point, as RusFed has already seen enough over the past couple seasons to know who it wants in Beijing.

Yet when I inquire, few of these people seem to have any concrete knowledge of what RusFed's actual selection process and criteria will be, to the extent that RusFed has given any indication at all.

What do we actually know? Is there anything in writing? Or at least anything that's been stated publicly?

 

[Jontor]

Has RusFed actually indicated what its Olympic team selection process and criteria will be?

I've heard endless contrasting opinions, from those speculating that the team is already basically decided (with most folks pointing to Kami, Anya, and Liza) to those who say it won't be decided until after Euros (which seems impractical as the turnaround between Euros and the Olympics is so short), as well as some saying RusNats will be the main deciding factor to those who say RusNats won't make much of a difference at this point, as RusFed has already seen enough over the past couple seasons to know who it wants in Beijing.

Yet when I inquire, few of these people seem to have any concrete knowledge of what RusFed's actual selection process and criteria will be, to the extent that RusFed has given any indication at all.

What do we actually know? Is there anything in writing? Or at least anything that's been stated publicly?

The Russians will do what they always do. Top two at Nationals are guaranteed a spot at Euros, and the RusFed will decide the third. They almost always go for the 3rd best skater from Nationals. Then after Euros they decide the Olympic team. Which will mean the same team as Euros as long as no one doesn't bomb there.
So in short, Nationals is everything. BOW from previous competitions doesn't matter at all.

But who knows in these uncertain times, maybe RusFed will have another strategy.

 

[silveruskate]

Has RusFed actually indicated what its Olympic team selection process and criteria will be?

I've heard endless contrasting opinions, from those speculating that the team is already basically decided (with most folks pointing to Kami, Anya, and Liza) to those who say it won't be decided until after Euros (which seems impractical as the turnaround between Euros and the Olympics is so short), as well as some saying RusNats will be the main deciding factor to those who say RusNats won't make much of a difference at this point, as RusFed has already seen enough over the past couple seasons to know who it wants in Beijing.

Yet when I inquire, few of these people seem to have any concrete knowledge of what RusFed's actual selection process and criteria will be, to the extent that RusFed has given any indication at all.

What do we actually know? Is there anything in writing? Or at least anything that's been stated publicly?

As Jontor said. The only predetermined-ness I would add is that the RusFed favourites will be getting a leg up with PCS, GOE and calls. But skating well at Nationals to make the top 3 will still be a must. At this stage I think the RusFed favourites are Kamila, Anna, Sasha and Liza.

 

[lurkerghost1]

And probably Usacheva will only get one .. she only did one GP, she isn't training yet, and she doesn't have any ultra c elements ... and if Anna wins the olympics probably will not continue ... and tuk will depend if she medals

Usacheva's seasons' best is high enough to get two

As Jontor said. The only predetermined-ness I would add is that the RusFed favourites will be getting a leg up with PCS, GOE and calls. But skating well at Nationals to make the top 3 will still be a must. At this stage I think the RusFed favourites are Kamila, Anna, Sasha and Liza.

But there is also the factor that St. Petersburg will host so the audience will be with Liza as the “hometown girl” and the ever-present coaching battles of not wanting all 3 to come from the same school. In 19-20 they did put Shcherbakova Trusova Kostornaia on the worlds team but only because they were so indisputably far ahead of Tuktamysheva. Trusova is at risk here to be dropped in PCS & GOE, they will try to limit the GOE on any quads she does to give Liza a chance.

 

[sclloyd]

some interesting side by side videos of aliona, sasha, and kamila's WR programs, and comment sections about them.

Side by side - WORLD RECORD Short Program in figure skating

In this video we see a comparison of the old and the new world record in the short program in Women Figure Skating, side by side to see the differences and w...

www.youtube.com

Alexandra Trusova vs Kamila Valieva - World Record Programs side by side

In this video we see a comparison of the old and the new world record in the long program in Women Figure Skating, side by side to see the differences and wa...

www.youtube.com

 

[DougDorsey]

The Russians will do what they always do. Top two at Nationals are guaranteed a spot at Euros, and the RusFed will decide the third. They almost always go for the 3rd best skater from Nationals. Then after Euros they decide the Olympic team. Which will mean the same team as Euros as long as no one doesn't bomb there.
So in short, Nationals is everything. BOW from previous competitions doesn't matter at all.

But who knows in these uncertain times, maybe RusFed will have another strategy.

Yeah. I mean, let's just say Kami misses all her 3A attempts (which is conceivable as her 3A success rate has been around 50% overall) and misses one of her quads in her FS. And let's say Anya, for the first time in four years, has a bad outing at RusNats, and falls on both her FS quads, assuming she attempts two.

Meanwhile, let's say Maiia puts on a repeat of her Russian Cup Final performance, Aliona finally lands relatively clean 3As, Sasha hits most of her quads in her FS, and Liza is as consistent as she's been all season.

Would RusFed really, based on this one competition alone, send some combination of Maiia/Aliona/Sasha/Liza to Euros and the Olympics ahead of Kami/Anya?

That would be sort of insane, IMO, to disregard the case these two girls have made for themselves across so many other competitions the past several seasons - Kami's mindblowing world records this season and excellent performances internationally going back to juniors, Anya's three straight RusNat titles, reigning WC status, and two GP golds this season, etc..

I think the U.S. has it right, in terms of taking a broader look at skater accomplishments in determining its Olympic team, instead of basing their decision on one event. I don't know why RusFed wouldn't follow this approach.

 

[Arbitrary]

I presume the first two from RusNats (except Trusova, she's not a preferenzi) will be excused from Europs.
Three of those beyond (with Trusova, if being positioned high enough) are going to Europs. The highest at Europs (a medalist almost for sure) will be the 3rd Olympics Team member.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I presume the first two from RusNats (except Trusova, she's not a preferenzi) will be excused from Europs.
Three of those beyond (with Trusova, if being positioned high enough) are going to Europs. The highest at Europs (a medalist almost for sure) will be the 3rd Olympics Team member.

I think everyone wants to skate Euros because it is a prestigious title. It will be more pressure-packed this year because peak Loena could knock a Russian having a bad day off the podium, and I think not medalling would cost any Russian a spot on the Olympic team.

 

[Lzbee]

I presume the first two from RusNats (except Trusova, she's not a preferenzi) will be excused from Europs.
Three of those beyond (with Trusova, if being positioned high enough) are going to Europs. The highest at Europs (a medalist almost for sure) will be the 3rd Olympics Team member.

Kamila is currently 10th in world standing. There are 4 Russians ahead of her so take one of them out and she's still 9th assuming that everyone ahead of her gets an Olympic spot. That means that she won't be skating in the final group of the SP. I'm sure it won't affect her scores but they'll probably still want to send her to Euros to guarantee skating in the final group.

 

[Jontor]

Yeah. I mean, let's just say Kami misses all her 3A attempts (which is conceivable as her 3A success rate has been around 50% overall) and misses one of her quads in her FS. And let's say Anya, for the first time in four years, has a bad outing at RusNats, and falls on both her FS quads, assuming she attempts two.

Meanwhile, let's say Maiia puts on a repeat of her Russian Cup Final performance, Aliona finally lands relatively clean 3As, Sasha hits most of her quads in her FS, and Liza is as consistent as she's been all season.

Would RusFed really, based on this one competition alone, send some combination of Maiia/Aliona/Sasha/Liza to Euros and the Olympics ahead of Kami/Anya?

That would be sort of insane, IMO, to disregard the case these two girls have made for themselves across so many other competitions the past several seasons - Kami's mindblowing world records this season and excellent performances internationally going back to juniors, Anya's three straight RusNat titles, reigning WC status, and two GP golds this season, etc..

I think the U.S. has it right, in terms of taking a broader look at skater accomplishments in determining its Olympic team, instead of basing their decision on one event. I don't know why RusFed wouldn't follow this approach.

I don't think that is a very likely scenario. Yes, Anna and Kamila can make mistakes, but their overall packed programs with backloaded 3+3s and spins should save them. But on the other hand, if they make so many mistakes that they, let's say finish Kamila 4th and Anna 5th, then there is an argument that they have nothing to do at Euros or Olympics.
That said, I think if Kamila ends 4th they will save her and the unlucky one at 3rd place will get snubbed.
But if someone is 5th, I don't think there is anything to do.

We can compare the situation from three years ago when the not eligible 3A swept the podium. Konstantinova were 4th, Zagitova 5th (after the judges saved her with huge PCS) and Samodurova was 6th. The judges tried to save Medvedeva as well with huge PCS but it wasn't enough as her short program was a disaster. So it was Stanislava, Alina and Sofia for Euros and we all know what happened there. Stanislava bombed the short but managed to end up 4th, but it was enough for RusFed to substitute her and suddenly Medvedeva was in (after that infamous skate off at RC with Tuktamysheva who had been sick during the Nationals).

Well, there is no time for RC skate offs here as that is at the same time as Olympics. So the girls need to perform their best at Nationals...and Euros.

I don't think the US has it right when looking at results from past seasons. They mean nothing in figure skating as a lot can change in a season. I bet that will mean that Karen Chen will get a ticket to Olympics even if she finishes 4th or 5th, and I think that is a mistake.

 

[Fool]

Yeah. I mean, let's just say Kami misses all her 3A attempts (which is conceivable as her 3A success rate has been around 50% overall) and misses one of her quads in her FS. And let's say Anya, for the first time in four years, has a bad outing at RusNats, and falls on both her FS quads, assuming she attempts two.

Valieva with falls on both 3As is her at Finlandia trophy (still record breaking). If we add in a fall on one quad we also have to combine this with RusFed GoEs and PCS and I don't see her going outside the top 2 (or 3?), even if Khromykh, Trusova and Kostornaia turn in performances unlike anything we've seen from them in years or ever.

 

[Lzbee]

Pretty sure there's zero chance they're leaving Kamila off the team. She could be 10th at nationals and I'd bet they'd still take her (not that she'd ever be 10th - she can get 65+157 65+161 even with 3 falls in each program - which is 222 226 total with 6 falls - I gave 8.75 in each of the PCS categories, +5 on non-jumps and +4 on landed jumps)

Edit: I still had the 2S in there from Rostelecom. 226 is with 6 falls but no underrotations or pops. That matches Maiia's seasons best oof.

 

[lurkerghost1]

Yeah. I mean, let's just say Kami misses all her 3A attempts (which is conceivable as her 3A success rate has been around 50% overall) and misses one of her quads in her FS. And let's say Anya, for the first time in four years, has a bad outing at RusNats, and falls on both her FS quads, assuming she attempts two.

Meanwhile, let's say Maiia puts on a repeat of her Russian Cup Final performance, Aliona finally lands relatively clean 3As, Sasha hits most of her quads in her FS, and Liza is as consistent as she's been all season.

Would RusFed really, based on this one competition alone, send some combination of Maiia/Aliona/Sasha/Liza to Euros and the Olympics ahead of Kami/Anya?

That would be sort of insane, IMO, to disregard the case these two girls have made for themselves across so many other competitions the past several seasons - Kami's mindblowing world records this season and excellent performances internationally going back to juniors, Anya's three straight RusNat titles, reigning WC status, and two GP golds this season, etc..

I think the U.S. has it right, in terms of taking a broader look at skater accomplishments in determining its Olympic team, instead of basing their decision on one event. I don't know why RusFed wouldn't follow this approach.

Firstly I think even if Kamila misses both 3As and a quad she will still score ~240. At Finlandia she missed both 3As and had 249 and then she will get even more PCS at nationals (wouldn’t be surprised to see 78 clean so 74 with two falls).
But even if she did somehow end up 4th I think Rusfed would save her because she is so far ahead with the world records and is the best skater they’ve ever produced.
Anna on the other hand I don’t think will be saved if she’s off the podium. she just got 229 with a botched quad and one landed although to be fair she lost ~15 points on that quad lutz fall instead of ~10 points she’d lose if she had actually jumped it instead of bailing. So let’s say 234 for one quad, thing is though 2 falls on a quad and suddenly she’s at 223-224 which is beatable by a perfect Sakamoto or maybe Hendrickx or Young. Whereas Valieva with 2-3 falls is still untouchable. They also tend not too look so much at past season’s results ex. Tuktamysheva herself in 2015-2016 was the reigning world champ and had one of the top 3 Russian Grand Prix scores that fall (ahead of Pogorilaya) and that was despite her 2nd event getting cancelled. But still at nationals she was off the podium so she didn’t make it. Medvedeva was the only one I can think of who got saved by previous season’s results in 2018-19 and that was after a very unusual combination of Tuktamysheva missing nationals with pneumonia and Konstantinova bombing off the podium at Euros, the Russians had never looked more bargaining.

That said, I think if Kamila ends 4th they will save her and the unlucky one at 3rd place will get snubbed.
But if someone is 5th, I don't think there is anything to do.

We can compare the situation from three years ago when the not eligible 3A swept the podium. Konstantinova were 4th, Zagitova 5th (after the judges saved her with huge PCS) and Samodurova was 6th. The judges tried to save Medvedeva as well with huge PCS but it wasn't enough as her short program was a disaster. So it was Stanislava, Alina and Sofia for Euros and we all know what happened there. Stanislava bombed the short but managed to end up 4th, but it was enough for RusFed to substitute her and suddenly Medvedeva was in (after that infamous skate off at RC with Tuktamysheva who had been sick during the Nationals).

Well, there is no time for RC skate offs here as that is at the same time as Olympics. So the girls need to perform their best at Nationals...and Euros.

I don't think the US has it right when looking at results from past seasons. They mean nothing in figure skating as a lot can change in a season. I bet that will mean that Karen Chen will get a ticket to Olympics even if she finishes 4th or 5th, and I think that is a mistake.

Yes but karen lately places better than expected.

 

[sclloyd]

Pretty sure there's zero chance they're leaving Kamila off the team. She could be 10th at nationals and I'd bet they'd still take her (not that she'd ever be 10th - she can get 65+157 65+161 even with 3 falls in each program - which is 222 226 total with 6 falls - I gave 8.75 in each of the PCS categories, +5 on non-jumps and +4 on landed jumps)

Edit: I still had the 2S in there from Rostelecom. 226 is with 6 falls but no underrotations or pops. That matches Maiia's seasons best oof.

This is a brilliant display of the extreme judging flaws that exist right now. It’s a major issue that one could not complete 3 out of 4 jumps and still somehow score only 10-12 points less than someone who is clean. Or that they fall and get more points on failed elements than someone jumping a clean 2A, 3F, 3Lz-2T layout for example.

Though I am curious how you got this… Maia had one non-complete jumping element and roughly 8.75 PCS and scored roughly 65. How do you figure 65 with THREE falls? Do you use a calculator?

 

[Azikin]

Pretty sure there's zero chance they're leaving Kamila off the team. She could be 10th at nationals and I'd bet they'd still take her

If someone crumbles under pressure, you think they will send that person to Olympics where pressure will be even stronger? No chance.

 

[sclloyd]

I don't think the US has it right when looking at results from past seasons. They mean nothing in figure skating as a lot can change in a season. I bet that will mean that Karen Chen will get a ticket to Olympics even if she finishes 4th or 5th, and I think that is a mistake.

Karen has a very good track record of skating well under pressure which is why they’ve selected her for things where placement is absolutely necessary— getting US 3 spots for example. If they send skaters with a history of choking under pressure, why would they send them to one of the most important competitions if they could lose a podium spot vs. a skater who maybe doesn’t have as high of a point cap but can be relied upon to podium.

I think the US approach here makes sense. They have almost zero top skaters with international name recognition, not a single podium this GP series and they somehow still maintained their Olympic/world spots by winning them back strategically.

Kamila has faced zero pressure. If she chokes, I really doubt they’ll send her to the OGs because they can’t risk not sweeping the podium by bad selection. Especially if Liza, Anna, and Sasha/Aliona could easily podium sweep. Remember when Sasha splatted how many were scared she’d lose Russia a podium sweep, even though she also had a 100+ TES technical cap. And she did just fine at the Grand Prix stages— it wasn’t until the final where it was a problem.

 

[Lzbee]

This is a brilliant display of the extreme judging flaws that exist right now. It’s a major issue that one could not complete 3 out of 4 jumps and still somehow score only 10-12 points less than someone who is clean. Or that they fall and get more points on failed elements than someone jumping a clean 2A, 3F, 3Lz-2T layout for example.

Though I am curious how you got this… Maia had one non-complete jumping element and roughly 8.75 PCS and scored roughly 65. How do you figure 65 with THREE falls? Do you use a calculator?

I use the SkatingScores website.
Here's the link to my rescoring for the SP
And here's the FP in case you're interested

Note that +5 is assuming all judges give her +5 so probably a slight overexaggeration.

Also note that popping, invalidating or downgrading an element is always worse than falling on a fully rotated element

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Kamila has faced zero pressure. If she chokes, I really doubt they’ll send her to the OGs because they can’t risk not sweeping the podium by bad selection. Especially if Liza, Anna, and Sasha/Aliona could easily podium sweep.

In the unlikely event Kamila finishes off the Nationals podium, her lowest international score of the season (249) will still be higher than any other skater has posted by a comfortable margin. I can't see that happening though, given how prepared Kamila shows up to her competitions.