2022 U.S. Nationals: Senior Men's Free Skate

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Actually, going into 2018 Nationals Zhou was last of the 5 contenders. He had the worst GP results. There was a LOT of doubt of Zhou going. The only reason it became obvious was because Max, Adam and Jason all completely bombed Nationals - which was totally unexpected. All three were ranked higher than Zhou beforehand.

This is different. Zhou scored 273.83 - 5 points higher than Rippon. The only conversation after Nationals was if Rippon deserved to go over Miner, and due to Rippon's BOW - 2 grand prix silvers and making the GPF. Zhou was essentially tied with Miner and went to the Olympics based on better senior results with Zhou getting scores of 250/257/222 whereas Miner scores that season were 220/233/220 - and of course the quads showed his potential which he ultimately lived up to at the Olympics placing 6th with 276 (a score Miner which could only dream of).

Also false that Zhou had the worse GP results - yeah, he got 9th at GP France but also got 4th in CoC (where he was 2nd in the FS - and scored 10 points higher than Brown's 2nd GP where he was 4th too to go with his SC silver). The best Ross got was 6th at Skate America. He had no event to lay claim to the Olympic team other than Nationals.

I have a feeling a similar thing might happen with Brown and Malinin here. Where Brown gets sent due to his GP medals.

Although there is a difference -- in 2018 Miner beat Rippon by just 5 points and wasn't much better technically and in 2022 Malinin absolutely destroyed Brown technically speaking.

 

[labgoat]

Well folks, I've read all your comments and had time to mull it over.
Nathan Chen is locked in. As for the others here is what I am considering:

Ilia Malinin - Tremendous skate. What is the likelihood that he will repeat such a feat under Olympic pressure. Can we use him in the team event?

Vincent Zhou - High scoring potential, up and down skater meaning he peaks and troughs regularly. What is his track record when the stakes are high (Worlds, Olympic pressure)? Can we count on him in the team event?

Jason Brown - Magnificient, one-of-a-kind skater with high scoring potential but not extraordinary high scores. What is his track record when the stakes are high (Worlds, Olympics)? Can we use him in the team event?

How are they all trending?

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

OOOH there's an interesting thought...They can't make Ilia first alternate to World's because he doesn't have the tech minimums yet. They would have to send him to 4CC or the Olympics to get them, but he can't go to 4CC and be first alternate at the Olympics

I mean honestly it’s Ilia’s own fault he doesn’t have minimums. Technical minimums are the minimum. You can get them even if you can’t even do a 3A in the men’s event. Any skater worthy of representing the US at the Olympics should have been able to get a MINIMUM score at the Warsaw Cup of all places.

 

[norwegianfairytale]

I also have to say that whomever is ALT 1 is going to have to stay ready because I will be very surprised if at least one alternate in one of the disciplines doesn't end up competing.

I agree, but it´s also incredibly sad to think about. OOh this season...

 

[Jammers]

When do we find out who they are sending to the Olympics?

 

[Joe Mendoza]

I'll let you guys know what I believe the Olympians will be - at around 5:45p EST.

 

[bekalc]

This is different. Zhou scored 273.83 - 5 points higher than Rippon. The only conversation after Nationals was if Rippon deserved to go over Miner, and due to Rippon's BOW - 2 grand prix silvers and making the GPF. Zhou was essentially tied with Miner and went to the Olympics based on better senior results with Zhou getting scores of 250/257/222 whereas Miner scores that season were 220/233/220 - and of course the quads showed his potential which he ultimately lived up to at the Olympics placing 6th with 276 (a score Miner which could only dream of).

Also false that Zhou had the worse GP results - yeah, he got 9th at GP France but also got 4th in CoC (where he was 2nd in the FS). The best Ross got was 6th at Skate America.

I have a feeling a similar thing might happen with Brown and Malinin here. Where Brown gets sent due to his GP medals.

Although there is a difference -- in 2018 Miner beat Rippon by just 5 points and wasn't much better technically and in 2022 Malinin absolutely destroyed Brown technically speaking.

Except for the fact that Malinin has never had the opportunity to skate at a Senior GP. The guy made the JGPf as the top qualifier.

 

[norwegianfairytale]

I mean honestly it’s Ilia’s own fault he doesn’t have minimums. Technical minimums are the minimum. You can get them even if you can’t even do a 3A in the men’s event. Any skater worthy of representing the US at the Olympics should have been able to get a MINIMUM score at the Warsaw Cup of all places.

Omg, so you require that skaters have to achieve the minimum in their first senior event ever or they are not worthy? You are right there is a few skaters who get them with only 2A but most of them did not get them on the first try. There are a lot of skaters who use a whole season getting them. I´m sure Ilia will get them at the next try. His BV is extremely high.

 

[invisiblespiral]

Well folks, I've read all your comments and had time to mull it over.
Nathan Chen is locked in. As for the others here is what I am considering:

Ilia Malinin - Tremendous skate. What is the likelihood that he will repeat such a feat under Olympic pressure. Can we use him in the team event?

Vincent Zhou - High scoring potential, up and down skater meaning he peaks and troughs regularly. What is his track record when the stakes are high (Worlds, Olympic pressure)? Can we count on him in the team event?

Jason Brown - Magnificient, one-oof-a-kind skater with high scoring potential but not extraordinary high scores. What is his track record when the stakes are high (Worlds, Olympics)? Can we use him in the team event?

I think USFS sort of locked themselves in a corner here as they have to send Zhou if they don't want to violate their own guidelines but there's a reasonable argument for sending Chen/Brown/Malinin. (probably the least likely)

Chen/Zhou/Brown for consistency, Chen/Zhou/Malinin if you want to go high risk, high reward.

 

[yume]

Jason is extremely consistent and makes top 10 at worlds. Zhou can do a fantastic skate when he's 'on', but is regularly an inconsistent competitor. Never know what you'll get from him. I understand he's in the priority 2 group because of this finish ... but my big complaint is that his very flawed skate was placed above Jason's.

Something is wrong with scoring if attempting jumps and falling on them - several times - results in a 2nd place finish. Of course, I have a lot of issues with the scoring system, anyway.

What is the value of top 10? The only thing that matter is a medal. There is not much difference between 10th and 20th place for the history. Why sacrifice someone who can end 20th but also 3rd, for someone who can't end on podium despite his consistency?

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Oh gee, forgot about that!

I think this is all the more reason Malinin should go to the Olympics and Brown get Worlds as a consolation.

 

[karne]

Vincent Zhou - High scoring potential, up and down skater meaning he peaks and troughs regularly. What is his track record when the stakes are high (Worlds, Olympic pressure)? Can we count on him in the team event?

Jason Brown - Magnificient, one-oof-a-kind skater with high scoring potential but not extraordinary high scores. What is his track record when the stakes are high (Worlds, Olympics)? Can we use him in the team event?

When the stakes were high at Worlds last year, and Olympic spots were on the line, Jason delivered. Zhou failed to make the free skate.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I think USFS sort of locked themselves in a corner here as they have to send Zhou if they don't want to violate their own guidelines but there's a reasonable argument for sending Chen/Brown/Malinin. (probably the least likely)

Chen/Zhou/Brown for consistency, Chen/Zhou/Malinin if you want to go high risk, high reward.

With Zhou beating Brown at Nationals (whether people think it was fair or not), there is zero argument for sending Brown instead. And it would be incredibly foolish given Zhou's scoring potential and comparative results this season to Brown.

 

[moonvine]

I think so but is that too quick a turnaround if he's also named to the Olympics?

If he’s named to the Olympics he can get Worlds minimums there.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

When the stakes were high at Worlds last year, and Olympic spots were on the line, Jason delivered. Zhou failed to make the free skate.

Again, that doesn't. entitle. Brown. to. an. Olympic. spot.

But along with his GP medals it may be the reason why they give it to him over Malinin - no, not over Zhou - over Malinin.

 

[bekalc]

Omg, so you require that skaters have to achieve the minimum in their first senior event ever or they are not worthy? You are right there is a few skaters who get them with only 2A but most of them did not get them on the first try. There are a lot of skaters who use a whole season getting them. I´m sure Ilia will get them at the next try. His BV is extremely high.

Yeah by this argument a new senior will never be able to make an Olympic or world team no matter what they do.

Jason is a top ten skater at worlds. He has had literally over a decade to develop the technical content to be competitive on the world stage and hasn’t. He has had almost a decade to become a world medalist.

Illia is ten years younger and already had the technical content to be very competitive. Technically they aren’t close.

 

[GGFan]

I'll let you guys know what I believe the Olympians will be - at around 5:45p EST.

I think it's 5:45 Central, so 6:45 EST.

 

[sworddance21]

I agree, but it´s also incredibly sad to think about. OOh this season...

Truth

What is the value of top 10? The only thing that matter is a medal. There is not much difference between 10th and 20th place for the history. Why sacrifice someone who can end 20th but also 3rd, for someone who can't end on podium despite his consistency?

Just throwing it out there - either Ilia or Vincent have the potential to damage the US medal hopes in the Team competition. Jason likely does not.

 

[labgoat]

When the stakes were high at Worlds last year, and Olympic spots were on the line, Jason delivered. Zhou failed to make the free skate.

When the stakes were high at Nationals this year, and an Olympic spots was on the line, Jason missed one jump, Zhou missed several. They were essentially tied if you factor in their overall totals including the short program where both did well.

 

[Flying Feijoa]

I think based on past trends, USFS prefers going with established names and fan favourites (better for ratings), so Chen/Brown/Zhou are most likely. As the quadsters are somewhat inconsistent, compelling narratives outweigh (dubious) medal strategies.
Though the biggest factor of all is COVID, so I think chances are high for Malinin to end up in Beijing.