After six domestic GPs we can safely take off rose-tinted glasses and conlude the era of triple axels and quads in Russian senior ladies figure skating has officially ended.
Rest in peace ultra-c, we'll always have youtube.
I disagree. First, some of the main girls are out with injury:
Sofia A. will be out the entire season with that stress fracture. Let's pray for her as she may not come back (stress fractures end careers).
Veronika Z. is injured not sure when she'll be back.
Anastasia Z. is injured not sure when she'll be back.
Then...
Liza T. suspended her career. Will not be back until international comps are offered.
Sofia S. is transitioning to another country
Current ladies left with ultra-c:
Adeliia P. landed both 4F, 4T, and 3A this season (the only one).
Kamila V. failed all 4T's in comp.
Sofia M. failed all 3A's in comp.
Alina G. failed 4S in comp
Daria S. failed all 4T's in comp
Maria Paramonova failed her 4S in comp
Angelina Palagina failed all 3A's in comp (new ultra-c senior)
Last season we had 8 total senior women with ultra-c jumps at major comps.
This season we had 12, but lost 5 so were left with the 7 above until some of the others heal and come back.
The era hasn't ended. Most of the ladies above still skating are inconsistent with landing their ultra-c jumps in competition which some can land in warm-up before their program.
The failure rate for all the quads at the GP's are normal except if anyone is doing any direct comparison to Anna and Sasha who had each other as competition. If Anna or Sasha did not exist to battle with the other we don't know if they would have pushed so many difficult 4Lz's, 4F's, and 3Lz 3Lo's back to back in competition to stay at the top against each other. Also Kamila came through in top shape at that time causing those two to push at the maximum even more with no break. It was non-stop ultra-c.
If you remove Anna and Sasha who are abnormal demons (in a good way) this failure rate is normal. Not landing at least one quad per comp is normal without these two women used as a reference. If without them during the 2017/2018 - 2021/2022 with the exception of Kami's rise starting in the 2019 season or Aliona peaking her 3A in 2019 season you'll see that the complete failure of quads and 3A is normal for everyone else competing. Only those two kept going non-stop landing quads from early on for 4 -5 seasons back to back. That isn't normal for most women.
Liza failed for years before she stabilized that 3A as an adult woman and always failed the 4T. This is more realistic for most women. I would completely remove Anna and Sasha as examples or as a standard for landing ultra-c as that's more on the extreme end.
Last season Adeliia was and now is always landing at least one quad with a 3A attempt per comp with multiple 3-3's so she is the only one following the Anna/Sasha path at the moment from the same team. Especially being the only one with 4F now in seniors. She's an outlier. Her biggest rival was Sofia A who she thought was in but is now out with injury. She's Sasha without an Anna to beat so she may reduce her load even more now that the competition isn't pushing both 3A and quads. One optional 3A in the short and a clean 4F in the free is suffice for her to win. Unless Zhilina comes back consistent with her 4Lz by Rus Nats. Then it's the battle of two Sashas since they both have so many quads (4T 4Lo 4F vs 4T 4S 4Lz) plus their 3A.
Last season Kamila failed until the jumping comp then landed her quads at nationals, and the GP final. This is her new normal with her current fully grown adult non-prepubescent body type and no olympic season to get in top shape for.
Last season Sofia M was on fire with her 3A but fizzled out drastically at the end. It's better for her to peak near the end rather then peak at the start and burn out at the end. Also, in juniors prior to last season the same thing happened at the Russian GP's when she first stabilized her 3A. She had some failures on 3A and completely failed her 4S attempts (never did it again). Her first semi-consistent season EVER back to back with her triple axels in the short and free was last season. We might be seeing a reverse trajectory with her.
Last season Alina G was always a hit or miss like she is now. She failed her last two GP's last season almost the exact same way she did right now. Normal for her. Last season was the first season she EVER landed her 4S clean at a major Russian comp.
Last season Angelina Palagina had no 3A in major domestic comps. This is her first season trying it at the GP's so of course it's inconsistent.
Last season Daria Sadkova was a junior without any ultra-c attempts until the GP final. She landed her 4T for the first time EVER last season at the GP final. Not surprised she can't land it right now in comp. Maybe at the GP final.
Last season Maria Paramonova failed the 4S attempts in small comps and she's still failing it now, but is also sadly dealing with death in her family so it's affecting her more. Otherwise it's normal for her. Never landed in comp.
The failure rate was very similar to last season or previous seasons for most of these ladies so far with the exception of Muravieva who's 3A peaked for the first time EVER last season, but maybe you didn't notice. It wasn't as clear to see last season as the most consistent ultra-c jumpers like Sofia A, and Liza T were there to mask some of the struggle when others failed and vice versa. Even Anastasia Z landed a clean quad at one of the GP's to create a smoke screen, but now that these skaters are all out with injury or soft retired we can see the normally struggling ultra-c skaters even more. It's like a magnifying glass on inconsistent skaters who are or at least were at one point always prone to inconsistency in their ultra-c jumps.
This is normal for them or their new normal (in Kami's case). Nothing is ending or has ended.
That's a pretty broad statement.
