Predictions

[bethissoawesome]

Last season
3A 7.5
3F+3T 9.5
3Lz 6.0
3Lo 5.5
3F+3Lo 11.55
2A+2Lo+2Lo 7.15
2A 3.95
Total 51.05

This season
3A+2T 9.5
3A 8.2
3F+2Lo+2Lo 8.5
3S 4.95
3F+3Lo 11.55
3Lz 6.6
2A 3.85
Total 53.15

As she mentioned, the solo 3T is a temporary measure to reduce burdens. After finally avoiding edge calls on the lutz, she won't do that again. If 3A+2T is replaces with 3A+3T, the total reaches 55.85 points.

It seems like a safer direction to take for Mao for her jumps would be to solo the first 3F (leaving out the two double loops) and tacking on 3T to her ending double axel. It also brings up a higher point total... 54.55

3A+2T 9.5
3A 8.2
3F 5.5
3S 4.95
3F+3Lo 11.55
3Lz 6.6
2A+3T 8.25

Base Value= 54.55....

If she wanted to risk it more, she could tack on the additional double loop to the 3F+3Lo or 2A+3T which would bring her base up to 56.2 (higher than the other layout with 3A+3T), which is a higher base than going for the 3A+3T with the other layout, which would probably be marked < on the 3T.

 

[propronia]

It was actually done by Kim, look again (CoC protocol).

Asada @ NHK - 7.6 points in total
Kim @ CoC - 6.9 points
Suguri @ SC - 7.2 points
Rochette @ SC - 6.8 points
Kim @ SA - 6.2 points

Of course Kim's was more inflated. it includes "Cohen level spiral" (GOE +2.0), a very mediocre 2A (+1.6 GOE) and stepped out 2A (0 GOE). I think the judges have gone overboard to make up for the "lost" points by edge calls. Kim @ SA was a little more "clean" relatively (less negative GOE).

Asada @ NHK leaves three assignments for GPF. She will be able to hit 200 points even with two downgradings. The judges will need more "efforts", something more than "Cohen level spiral" to fill the gap.

Keeping seconds for spirarls (+3 points)
Replacing the 3T with the 3Lz (+2 points)
Introducing a 3-3 (+5 points)

 

[ks777]

Asada @ NHK - 7.6 points in total
Kim @ CoC - 6.9 points
Suguri @ SC - 7.2 points
Rochette @ SC - 6.8 points
Kim @ SA - 6.2 points

Of course Kim's was more inflated. it includes "Cohen level spiral" (GOE +2.0), a very mediocre 2A (+1.6 GOE) and stepped out 2A (0 GOE). I think the judges have gone overboard to make up for the "lost" points by edge calls. Kim @ SA was a little more "clean" relatively (less negative GOE).

Asada @ NHK leaves three assignments for GPF. She will be able to hit 200 points even with two downgradings. The judges will need more "efforts", something more than "Cohen level spiral" to fill the gap.

Keeping seconds for spirarls (+3 points)
Replacing the 3T with the 3Lz (+2 points)
Introducing a 3-3 (+5 points)

you just reminded me of someone that used to post here on this board.. Trying to remember her name.. I can't remember her name, can someone help me with her name? was it Tiara or something?

 

[propronia]

you just reminded me of someone that used to post here on this board.. Trying to remember her name.. I can't remember her name, can someone help me with her name? was it Tiara or something?

I'm a same person with axel3 evacuated from the Canadian colonized ISU forum. Some people may not like "fill the gap" rhetorics. But everything surrounding judging on the ISU ladies field comes down to this, isn't it?

 

[Sdongxie]

you just reminded me of someone that used to post here on this board.. Trying to remember her name.. I can't remember her name, can someone help me with her name? was it Tiara or something?

I think she is Tiara...

 

[SailorGalaxia518]

Asada @ NHK - 7.6 points in total
Kim @ CoC - 6.9 points
Suguri @ SC - 7.2 points
Rochette @ SC - 6.8 points
Kim @ SA - 6.2 points

Of course Kim's was more inflated. it includes "Cohen level spiral" (GOE +2.0), a very mediocre 2A (+1.6 GOE) and stepped out 2A (0 GOE). I think the judges have gone overboard to make up for the "lost" points by edge calls. Kim @ SA was a little more "clean" relatively (less negative GOE).

Asada @ NHK leaves three assignments for GPF. She will be able to hit 200 points even with two downgradings. The judges will need more "efforts", something more than "Cohen level spiral" to fill the gap.

Keeping seconds for spirarls (+3 points)
Replacing the 3T with the 3Lz (+2 points)
Introducing a 3-3 (+5 points)

I disagree. Mao Asada may be superb skater artistically and very good with her technique but Yu-Na Kim has much better technique then Asada not to mention fantastic lines and choreography which results in high PCS Asada also needs to be more consisitent with her jumps because if you put Yu-Na Kim and Mao Asada to see who can skate to clean programs and if both do skate to two clean programs, I believe Yu-Na Kim can beat Asada.

I think for Asada to skate clean is to not focus so much on the takeoff of the triple lutz because that seems to affect the rest of the programs.

IMO, Yu-Na Kim is number 1 in the world in the ladies division with Mao Asada currently in 2nd.

Here is what is going to come down to, I believe that there three ladies right now in the running for gold for the 2009 Worlds and 2010 Olympics:

1.) Yu-Na Kim (KOR)
2.) Mao Asada (JPN)
3.) Joannie Rochette (CAN) - who now has emerged as a serious contender

 

[bethissoawesome]

I actually prefer Mao's spiral to Sasha's... she carries her torso higher than Cohen during her split with the same amount of extension, but her GOEs for it are never VERY high. Although I think Caroline Zhang has the spiral to beat now... her TEB GOE marks for it in the Free were all +3 except one judge who gave a +1. Mao could make up more points if her step sequence were level 4, which I feel like it is definitely close to.

 

[propronia]

I disagree. Mao Asada may be superb skater artistically and very good with her technique but Yu-Na Kim has much better technique then Asada not to mention fantastic lines and choreography which results in high PCS Asada also needs to be more consisitent with her jumps because if you put Yu-Na Kim and Mao Asada to see who can skate to clean programs and if both do skate to two clean programs, I believe Yu-Na Kim can beat Asada.

I think for Asada to skate clean is to not focus so much on the takeoff of the triple lutz because that seems to affect the rest of the programs.

IMO, Yu-Na Kim is number 1 in the world in the ladies division with Mao Asada currently in 2nd.

Here is what is going to come down to, I believe that there three ladies right now in the running for gold for the 2009 Worlds and 2010 Olympics:

1.) Yu-Na Kim (KOR)
2.) Mao Asada (JPN)
3.) Joannie Rochette (CAN) - who now has emerged as a serious contender

Thanks for your subjective opinion!

When did YuNA Kim skate clean? I can't remember at all.
I can remember when she skated after Mao in the SP, she always made very serious mistakes. Everything goes to the judges willingness to salvage her. In terms of "skating clean", Mao w/ two 3A's is more probable than Kim w/ three 2A's. Can she get away with edge calls this time? Maybe. Maybe not. Can she receive a "Cohen level spiral" valuation again? I strongly doubt this one. All other contenders except Nakano have five (six for Mao) different triples with correct edges. How the judges consider this fact? At least she won't be as confident as you are.

 

[SailorGalaxia518]

Thanks for your subjective opinion!

When did YuNA Kim skate clean? I can't remenber at all.
I can remenber when she skated after Mao in the SP, she always made very serious mistakes. Everything goes to the judges willingness to salvage her. In terms of "skating clean", Mao w/ two 3A's is more probable than Kim w/ three 2A's. Can she get away with edge calls this time? Maybe. Maybe not. Can she receive a "Cohen level spiral" valuation again? I strongly doubt this one. All other contenders except Nakano have five (six for Mao) different triples with correct edges. How the judges consider this fact? At least she won't be as confident as you are.

I meant to say if she skates clean, cause I know she has yet to skate two clean programs this season as does Asada. Technically if Mao does two triple axels she pretty much can beat Yu-Na Kim. i am just worried abut Mao's consistency especially about her focus on the takeoff of the triple lutz. But Yu-Na Kim has already shown much more consistency than Asada this season with the exception of the triple loop. Yu-Na kim could have easily won both the 2007 and 2008 World titles had she had skated two clean programs but I guess we will never know.

Well I guess we will find out who is better here at the GPF

 

[propronia]

I meant to say if she skates clean, cause I know she has yet to skate two clean programs this season as does Asada. Technically if Mao does two triple axels she pretty much can beat Yu-Na Kim. i am just worried abut Mao's consistency especially about her focus on the takeoff of the triple lutz. But Yu-Na Kim has already shown much more consistency than Asada this season with the exception of the triple loop. Yu-Na kim could have easily won both the 2007 and 2008 World titles had she had skated two clean programs but I guess we will never know.

Well I guess we will find out who is better here at the GPF

I understand you are talking about fictions. But you need to do some basic math. A "Clean Mao" can score 212-215 points.

- full credit for a 3-3 in the SP +6 points
- keeping seconds for spirals +3 points
- full credit for a 3A+2T in the FS +5 points
- full credit for a 3-3 in the FS +5 points
- replacing the 3T with the 3Lz +2 points

In total 22 points are added. The PCS will increase too. Please let everyone show how "Clean YuNa" can beat "Clean Mao".

 

[Kinga]

I finally forced myself to make my predictions. Normally I dont like doing this, but with such an interesting field in all competitions, I was too tempted . It will be something in between predictions and wishful thinking

Pairs:
S/S
V/M
Z/Z

Dance: Super tough one, considering that there isnt a CD.. Here my preditctions are REALLY predictions, since I would prefer D/W to win, but it is not going to happen...

Del/Sch
B/A
K/N

Ladies: I thought it would be nice to drift away from the standart Kim/Asada/Rochette predictions, therefore, a small surprise factor is included:

Kim
Rochette
Kostner
Asada
Nakano
Ando

Men: The worst to predict

Verner
Joubert
Weir
Kozuka
Chan
Abbott

 

[antmanb]

Thanks for your subjective opinion!

Pot. Kettle. Black.

Ant

 

[dutchherder]

Men
Joubert
Chan
Kozuka
Weir
Abbott
Verner

Ladies
Kim
Asada
Rochette
Kostner
Ando
Nakano

Pairs
Savchenko/Szolkowy
Zhang/Zhang
Pang/Tong
Kawaguchi/Smirnov
Volosozhar/Morozov
Mukhortova/Trankov

Dance (I never thought I'd say it, but I'm most excited about this event. Below is what I predict, but I want Davis and White to win! )
Delobel/Schoenfelder
Domnina/Shabalin
Davis/White
Belbin/Agosto
Khokhlova/Novitski
Faiella/Scali

 

[Chipotle88]

my predictions

Men
Patrick Chan CAN
Takahiko Kozuka JPN
Johnny Weir USA
Brian Joubert FRA
Jeremy Abbott USA
Tomas Verner CZE

Ladies
Yu-Na Kim KOR
Joannie Rochette CAN
Mao Asada JPN
Carolina Costner ITA
Yukari Nakano JPN
Miki Ando JPN

 

[siberia82]

Could it have been even more difficult for you if Shawn were here?

If Shawn had made it to the GPF, we would of course be in an ideal universe where he has mastered the 3-Axel and the 3-lutz. So in that context, I'd probably go bald before the end of the year from all the confusing "readings" I've been getting!

I am rooting for the most unpredictable one ever, Tomas, which makes it even more so for me.

Interesting you should mention Tomas because I do have a scenario where he's the winner (not that I have much faith in any of my guesses for this event hwell. It's almost the same as my previous list, but with everyone pushed down one spot:

1. Tomas Verner
2. Johnny Weir
3. Brian Joubert
4. Patrick Chan
5. Takahiko Kozuka
6. Jeremy Abbott

Perhaps the scrambled feelings we've all been getting means that it will be a very tight competition?

P.S. I luv Pj, she always inspired me to do my predictions. I am trying to predict independently this time.

Oh, I have nothing against her. My jokes were never meant to be mean-spirited. She just has a knack for picking non-winners for the men's event, that's all.

 

[Bennett]

Interesting you should mention Tomas because I do have a scenario where he's the winner (not that I have much faith in any of my guesses for this event hwell. It's almost the same as my previous list, but with everyone pushed down one spot:

Wow, it is interesting that Tomas went from the bottom to the top in your list Perhaps all or nothing?

In my ideal scenario, I wouldn't dare to say he would have two clean programs. But he would be clean in SP, land a quad, two 3As, and two lutzs, and make less than three mistakes on the other jumps, which would be enough to place him the first

Yet, more realistically speaking, I feel that the one with the least mistakes would win. So Abbott without a quad may be a better bet to compete against Chan and Joubert who have been rather inconsistent, Johnny who has barely maxed the base value in LP, and Taka risking the quad on which he is still pretty inconsistent in practices.

 

[Mathman]

Propronia, will you PLEASE stop this ranting and raving. The GP final will be next week. Whatever is going to happen will happen.

By the way, posts like the ones wer are seeing on this thread will not be allowed in the Grand Prix finals event folder.

 

[SailorGalaxia518]

Propronia, will you PLEASE stop this ranting and raving. The GP final will be next week. Whatever is going to happen will happen.

By the way, posts like the ones wer are seeing on this thread will not be allowed in the Grand Prix finals event folder.

Thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[siberia82]

Wow, it is interesting that Tomas went from the bottom to the top in your list Perhaps all or nothing?

Yeah, something like that. I did predict that he would medal at CoC and that he'd win the silver at CoR, but the (rather vague) vibes I sense for this competition is that Tomas will either be almost-clean and dominate , or he'll crash and burn. Not that anyone should put much weight in any of my premonitions for the GPF.

Someone on FSU mentioned after his "Crouching Czech, Hidden Program" debacle at Worlds that they thought Tomas was Sandhu's heir (i.e. a skater with all of the talent in the world, but has trouble delivering the goods in competition). My first reaction was because I didn't want to believe such a horrible thing could be true. But alas, I do see shades of Sandhu in him.... *sighs* (Thankfully, Tomas seems to possess a much more likeable personality than EgoMANiac. )

Yet, more realistically speaking, I feel that the one with the least mistakes would win. So Abbott without a quad may be a better bet to compete against Chan and Joubert who have been rather inconsistent, Johnny who has barely maxed the base value in LP, and Taka risking the quad on which he is still pretty inconsistent in practices.

I don't even want to analyze the men's field; it's just too much for my noggin to handle right now! Picking names out of a hat would probably be more accurate than any of our guesses.

 

[psycho]

Picking names out of a hat would probably be more accurate than any of our guesses.

Best prediction in this thread.

All the guys are incredibly unpredictable. Kozuka might not hold up to the pressure, Chan might not get overscored again and that means he's screwed, Abbott is really inconsistent, Brian might be having blade/head/preparation problems, I've stopped trying to predict Johnny a long time ago-there's always something crazy going on with him, and Verner-he's the most unpredictable of them all! So yeah. We'll see what happens.