Ladies LP - actual competition

[Particle Man]

You're obviously a bot, as opposed to a fan, if you truly believe Sasha is the best hope for the American ladies in 2010.

You're just a Sasha hater, end of story. I'm not going to attempt a rational discussion with you, since you aren't rational. I'll be watching your posts though so I know what to name you.

What an idiotic reply. So people should only bother competing at the Olympics if they can win a medal?

I agree with you. Sure, winning and competition is a huge part of sport. But are the life experiences one receives from participating in said sport any less valuable? No.

So all the name-calling, screaming, favoritism, charges of bias, anger over Nationals results, slander of Alissa and calls to pull her from the Worlds team, and calls to ignore our National championship results -- all that is so we MIGHT have a better chance of sending a 3rd girl to get "life experience"?

...

You sure care a lot about that 3rd girl's life experience.

 

[bekalc]

Part of me wants Rachael/Alissa to completely bomb at Worlds so that USFSA will see the mistake they made in screwing over Caroline, but then the other part of me knows that Rachael/Alissa need to do well in order for Caroline to have a better chance at Vancouver next year. After all, the way it is now, she'll need all the help she can get....

Don't you think the USFSA will feel a lot more sorry if Rachael places 6th and then the Alissa 9th?

 

[Tonichelle]

Ok - one more time (this is the year of the broken record on GS) - if you have issues with a certain poster take it off the boards. Keep it civil if you do so by PM otherwise, get over it. There's this neat little feature called the ignore button, please take the time to use it!

 

[R.D.]

But I think that Zhang/Flatt have a better shot at sixth. Let me put it this way Laura Lepisto gets high PCS (maybe better than Alissa's) she gets high GOE's. So the only way to beat Laura is to outjump her. Whose more likely to do that" Zhang/Flatt or Alissa?

I agree, you're right. I think Zhang is the "safer choice" but nothing is a done deal. Only the US world team is. You know, I think the folks who want Caroline on the team better start wishing for a Czisny withdrawal. I will not go that far, though, and will just wish her the best. She's gonna need the luck and our support.

I have not seen this Laura Lepisto skate so I won't speak for her.

 

[ks777]

I wish Japan could let the US borrow Yukari Nakano for worlds in order to get the 3 spots.

 

[feraina]

I wish Japan could let the US borrow Yukari Nakano for worlds in order to get the 3 spots.

Ha, imagine the uproar over this! US doesn't have enough spots to give to its own talented skaters, how can it afford giving a precious one away to Yukari Nakano? Besides, Yukari has shown her own weaknesses by not making it onto the World's team for Japan.

But, in theory, I can appreciate that Yukari could be a valuable member of the "US" team. Caroline did beat her in the 2007 GPF though.

 

[ks777]

Ha, imagine the uproar over this! US doesn't have enough spots to give to its own talented skaters, how can it afford giving a precious one away to Yukari Nakano? Besides, Yukari has shown her own weaknesses by not making it onto the World's team for Japan.

But, in theory, I can appreciate that Yukari could be a valuable member of the "US" team. Caroline did beat her in the 2007 GPF though.

But Yukari placed 5th at worlds in 2007 and 4th in 2008.

 

[Particle Man]

I agree, you're right. I think Zhang is the "safer choice" but nothing is a done deal. Only the US world team is. You know, I think the folks who want Caroline on the team better start wishing for a Czisny withdrawal. I will not go that far, though, and will just wish her the best. She's gonna need the luck and our support.

The best moments in figure skating were where the underdog came through. If Alissa is the underdog, good for her. How terrible to think that people want to kick a National champion to the curb because she didn't skate her best in a competition 11 days after Nats, and because someone else happened to skate their best instead. But they do, in spades. I hope Alissa stays off the internet.

I have not seen this Laura Lepisto skate so I won't speak for her.

Wow, I'm surprised. I saw Lepisto a few times, I don't remember where, but the first time was when she was in 1st after the short program. You could see the pressure on her shoulders, and then she had a complete and utter meltdown in the LP. I was like "why was this girl ever in first?" I think she went down to 9th. After that, when I watch her skate I am always waiting for the "Lepisto meltdown." I don't hate her, actually I think she is lovely... but even though I haven't seen her have that level of meltdown again, she usually falters quite a bit. I am really surprised she was able to win something like Euros. I have not seen her skate this season. But, I'd still lay odds that she will not have a clean, amazing skate at Worlds, especially since she crumbled so badly the last time she was the frontrunner.

 

[feraina]

But Yukari placed 5th at worlds in 2007 and 4th in 2008.

Yukari is lovely when she's on, especially when she hits that 3A (though it hasn't shown up much lately). She's my second favorite Japanese lady. It's a real shame that she didn't make it to World's this year. But she has her issues with the wrap and also under-rotations, and also lack of 3-3. Actually, it's all related, the wrap slows her down, resulting sometimes in UR's, and also makes it nearly impossible to do 3-3's. Even when she fully rotates the wrapped triples, she doesn't get good GOE's. When she is a little off, a lot of things can go wrong in her program, and then she can end up losing to Fumie and Akiko, and even Caroline.

 

[R.D.]

PM: The controversial issue is that Alyssa skated BETTER than at Nats, and Rachel skated WORSE than at Nats, and yet the score differences between the two remain much closer than they were at Nats. This lead some people to believe that Alyssa was held up by the National judges.

 

[R.D.]

I wish Japan could let the US borrow Yukari Nakano for worlds in order to get the 3 spots.

And kick off who to squeeze her in?

Anyway, I'd rather stick with our own skaters. I think she would get similar results to Caroline Zhang...maybe just a place or two higher, but I wouldn't necessarily have called her a medal contender.

 

[feraina]

PM: The controversial issue is that Alyssa skated BETTER than at Nats, and Rachel skated WORSE than at Nats, and yet the score differences between the two remain much closer than they were at Nats. This lead some people to believe that Alyssa was held up by the National judges.

Not to mention Caroline skated about the same (better footwork sequence in the LP here, but no ratified 3-3 as in National's SP), and shot up to a much higher score.

 

[Particle Man]

PM: The controversial issue is that Alyssa skated BETTER than at Nats, and Rachel skated WORSE than at Nats

Rachael would go to worlds in any circumstance. What matters is whether Caroline or Alissa would perform better there. 08/09 ISU GP averages, known before Nationals:

Caroline Zhang: 153.67
Alissa Czisny: 154.48 (ALSO won Nebelhorn over Laura Lepisto & Akiko Suzuki)

Those are ISU scores, not USFSA scores. So where's the justification for saying "they should have decided at Nationals that Caroline would be better at Worlds than Alissa?" There is none. Caroline had an amazing skate at 4CC -- who can see the future? Would she do it again at Worlds? Who can say?

And as we saw at 4CC - even when Caroline does her best, she is held back in PCS, not by corrupt judges but by her mule kick and lesser skating skills. That's not debatable and it also doesn't come and go, like jump inconsistency. It's ALWAYS there.

The real truth is that Alissa has been condemned by the skating community because of several past seasons of inconsistency. If you take only this 08/09 season, all the arguments against her fall apart. I knew she was working with someone new before anyone even told me, because of what I saw at the Nationals Thursday SP, and what I saw at the Friday practice session -- how many of you attended? I watched her skate amazingly both times and said "she must be working with someone new, she has finally found some consistency on landings." Sure enough, I later find out she's been working with Boitano.

Alissa is far better than she was before this season. It's still very fair to say she's made a significant improvement, and to then judge her by this 08/09 season. And based on that, even after 4CC, I would still say she has the same general potential at Worlds as Caroline. 4CC wasn't worlds. Caroline is saddled with the PCS problems I mentioned which don't go away. Alissa is saddled with jump inconsistency which IS improved over previous seasons.

It's like everyone in this thread can only see 4CC because it just happened, and they think nothing else could possibly happen at worlds. Caroline WOULD have the skate of her life AGAIN you say? OK. Can you pick me some lottery numbers too?

 

[R.D.]

It's like everyone in this thread can only see 4CC because it just happened, and they think nothing else could possibly happen at worlds. Caroline WOULD have the skate of her life AGAIN you say? OK. Can you pick me some lottery numbers too?

What I've been basically saying throughout this thread, you hinted at there.

 

[feraina]

Just for fun, I was looking at footwork sequence scores from the LP. My intuition is that the evaluation of the footwork sequence is like a mini assessment of PCS and should have the best correlation with PCS (compared to other technical elements). It should involve measuring things like skating skills, transitions/linking footwork, performance/execution, choreography/composition, interpretation. I list the GOE's everyone got (they all got level 3, so same base value), along with their PCS:

Asada: 1.00, 60.08
Suzuki: 0.70, 51.20
Kim: 0.60, 60.88
Czisny: 0.60, 54.08
Zhang: 0.50, 53.04
Suguri: 0.50, 54.64
Rochette: 0.30, 58.56
Phaneuf: 0.30, 53.92
Flatt: 0.30, 51.04

There is definitely a correlation, except Kim's and Rochette's PCS very high, and Suzuki's quite low. Since the step sequence is judged with a bit more objectivity than the PCS (one'd hope anyway), perhaps this tells us something about the inflation/deflation of PCS for particular skaters?

Caroline WOULD have the skate of her life AGAIN you say? OK. Can you pick me some lottery numbers too?

It's not about whether Caroline will skate as well at World's as she did here if she had the chance, or whether Alissa will finally have a clean skate there. It's about the apparently unfair judging of Caroline and Alissa at National's -- one big rationale for holding up Alissa was that she'd have better potential to help get three spots for the Olympics. That doesn't make bad judging less bad, but it makes it maybe more understandable. But based on 4CC results we can see how fallacious that line of thinking is. Caroline's score here is 3 points higher than Alissa's personal best from three seasons ago, back when her lipping and UR's weren't penalized as they are today, and Caroline's PB is 5 points higher still, which would come easily if at least one of her 3-3's would get ratified, and she was close on her two attempts here, at least closer to fully rotating them than the jumps Alissa got downgraded on. So heck yeah, I'd say Caroline has a better chance of delivering the programs she did here (and also at National's) at World's, than Alissa has of doing two programs much better than she did here at 4CC.

 

[Particle Man]

It's not about whether Caroline will skate as well at World's as she did here if she had the chance, or whether Alissa will finally have a clean skate there.

Actually, that's what it's ALL about - who has the better chance.

So then you ignore all my points and go back to the same fallacious line of reasoning. While Alissa:

- scored better in the GP this season than Caroline
- beat Caroline in the GP event they were both in
- won Nebelhorn against Lepisto and Suzuki
- started working with Boitano who has helped her dramatically

all of which you ignore. You only focus on the points that favor Caroline, then build an argument around that.

Like a dog chasing its tail with a 3rd Olympic spot tied to it, this argument is going nowhere fast.

 

[skates]

Actually, that's what it's ALL about - who has the better chance.

So then you ignore all my points and go back to the same fallacious line of reasoning. While Alissa:

- scored better in the GP this season than Caroline
- beat Caroline in the GP event they were both in
- won Nebelhorn against Lepisto and Suzuki
- started working with Boitano who has helped her dramatically

all of which you ignore. You only focus on the points that favor Caroline, then build an argument around that.

Like a dog chasing its tail with a 3rd Olympic spot tied to it, this argument is going nowhere fast.

Caroline was injured at SC this season and was not at Nebelhorn . Caoroline may have won Nebelhorn. Who knows.

 

[feraina]

- scored better in the GP this season than Caroline
- beat Caroline in the GP event they were both in
- won Nebelhorn against Lepisto and Suzuki
- started working with Boitano who has helped her dramatically

All this is true. But none of it justifies holding up Alissa at National's. The judging of a competition should solely be based on the performance of that day, not the past or future, if a sport wants to be taken seriously as a sport.

 

[Mathman]

You are all missing the boat.

Ashley Wagner won the free skate at U.S. Nationals, crushing Flatt, Czisny and Zhang. Ashley is by far the best bet for the U.S. team at Worlds.

In the Grand Prix series, total points for U.S. ladies were

Flatt 321.79

Wagner 316.69 (She was robbed -- according to my scoring she should have got 325.62.)

Czisny 308.95

Zhang 307.34

If Ashley had cmpeted at Four Continents, I am pretty sure she would have scored about 178.36, putting her ahead of Adasa for the bronze medal. (OK, maybe only 177.29.)

I know the UASFSA is kicking itself for marking Ashley so low in the SP at Cleveland. For all Ashley fans out there, we'll see what's what and who's who at Junior Worlds! :yes:

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

The job of the US Ladies going to the Worlds is to earn 13 points for the following all important National.

I do not think that a combo of Alissa and Rachael is impossible to earn 13 points.

Kim, Rochette, Mao, Kostner are pretty much locks. The two American ladies are iffy, but so is Akiko and Suguri, Who else are in this iffy class?.

Alissa and Rachael can earn a combo of 5 and 8 or 6 and 7. No?