Th boy looks tired and pale today, a bit worrying, hope he is going to be okay for his FS. For some reason in FS, I think Dai may have the upper hand this time, a bit or morozov voodoo magic can't hurt, even if I totally dislike the program itself.
I agree with this part and think Hanyu is not set to win. Remember he also had a 9.75 point lead over Kozuka at SA but still lost overall. Perhaps Hanyu won’t skate as bad as he did at SA, but Daisuke is not Kozuka and Daisuke can score much better than Kozuka in the FS on both TES and PCS. Hanyu should not make too many mistakes, or he may lose to Daisuke. I don’t like Daisuke’s FS either but I’m fine if he wins tomorrow.
Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised at the result consider Dai's SP is choreographed by Nanami Abe, Hanyu's old coach. How would it look on JSF if that program beat Hanyu's (star choreographer, coach) WR program at home. They'd certainly loose face.
I disagree with this part because I don’t know what does Abe have to do with Daisuke’s score?
At Japan Nationals, Daisuke got
____________TES_PCS
Daisuke Nats 43.39 44.65
Daisuke lost because of TES. If you compare with international competitions, the highest PCS Daisuke got was at GPF, the only time he was clean this season.
____________TES_PCS
Daisuke GPF 49.15 43.14
At home Japan Nationals he was not clean but his PCS increased to 44.65, which is 1.51 points higher than what he got when he was clean at GPF.
And the highest international PCS Hanyu got was at SA, his first GP outing, which is odd enough.
__________TES__PCS
Hanyu Nats 53.78 43.90
Hanyu SA_ 51.71 43.36
His PCS only increased by 0.54 points at Japan Nationals. Usually skaters get higher PCS as the season proceeds, but Hanyu’s PCS is not increasing much.
Then we compare with other skaters’ Japan Nationals scores and their highest international scores:
___________TES__PCS
Kozuka Nats 43.03 41.55
Kozuka GPF 46.64 40.75
Kozuka’s PCS increased by 0.8 points at home, more than Hanyu’s increase.
_________TES__PCS
Mura Nats 45.58 38.90
Mura TEB 41.15 35.50
Mura’s PCS increased by 3.4 points!
_________TES_PCS
Oda Nats 42.20 39.55
Oda SC_ 44.61 37.53
Oda’s PCS increased by 2.02 points despite his fall today.
__________TES_PCS
Hino Nats 37.53 30.75
Hino JGPF 38.20 29.35
Hino’s PCS increased by 1.4 points.
_______________________TES_PCS
Shoma Uno Nats_______ 35.16 32.40
Shoma Uno JGP Germany 33.62 29.86
Uno’s PCS increased by 2.54 points.
So besides Machida who had a total splat today, basically everyone’s PCS increased by more than Hanyu. If we look at everyone’s score today, then I don’t think JSF or anybody inflated Hanyu’s score.
Looking at the protocols, Hanyu gained so many 9s and 9.5 PCS including skating skills.. interesting. He used to get 7s to high 8s early in the season.
I don’t know what you mean by Hanyu “used to get 7s to high 8s early in the season”? At SA, his first GP outing, he got
8.64 in SS
8.36 in TR
8.89 in P/E
8.68 in CH
8.79 in IN
At Japan Nationals, he got
8.85 in SS
8.50 in TR
8.90 in P/E
8.80 in CH
8.85 in IN
Not that much difference. If you look at others’ scores, you’ll find bigger differences.
But overall Dai got higher PCS which seems about right, but less generous with GOEs relative to what Hanyu received compare with their previous GPF outing.
I don’t understand this sentence either. Daisuke was the only one clean at GPF SP, but he made mistakes today which affected his GOEs. Hanyu, on the contrary, made mistakes and had a fall at GPF SP. He was clean today and earned GOEs similar to SA and NHK SP’s.