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To Watching the replay of Mirai's jumps, quite few of those are clearly UR. Also so surprised she got such high score on her Choreography/Composition. Don't see anything being Professionally Composite-d in her LP! And it was so obvious she took 4-5 seconds resting herself in the middle of her LP. There are so many Mirai fans on this forum, please excuse me if you are offended! But be fair, she earned the 3rd spot. Replacing her with Ashley will set very poor standard for US Figure Skating future!
Feel so sorry for Ashley. Seems the old nervous Ashley Wagner is back to bite her hard at this critical time. It happened in 2010, here you go again in 2014!
Yes, Mirai got 3rd.
But Ashley got 4th, and frankly,
I think she was lucky to get that. And had she not, I doubt there'd be anything other than feigned consideration being given to the decision.
And yes, Mirai may have rested herself and had some UR's, but she also stood up the entire skate - something that can't be said for Ashley on either day. Mirai with rests would almost certainly beat Ashley again if they both went to Sochi and their skates were what they were at Nationals.
If it's an issue of Mirai earning what she got (and being overscored in your opinion) then how can it be said that
Ashley didn't earn what she got - fourth. Off the podium and thus potentially not making the team - as well?
Frankly with Mirai skating AFTER Ashley
and Polina, and Gracie having to flop to completely miss the podium,
the judges could well have scored Mirai lower in order to ensure Ashley was on the podium. But they didn't. And I think that is actually a very possible clue as to Mirai's chances of making the team. If they found the jumps and composition that problematic, her scores would have reflected that - especially since that would have meant Ashley on the podium.
In addition, as you said, once again Ashley couldn't handle the pressure. She couldn't get out of her head - ironic since many call Mirai a head case and she clearly was far from that this week! But that - Ashley's inability to handle the pressure may be a
huge factor in the decision of the judges. If she hasn't handled it in Nationals either of the Olympic seasons, how will she handle Olympic pressure? That could prove to be a replay of Nationals both years, I suspect.
Mirai, on the other hand, has
earned herself a spot, standing up to the pressure of both the 2010 and 2014 Nationals when she absolutely had to do well if she was to make the team. And then she went on to also stand up to the pressure - even that of skating last at the Olympics - and nearly landed herself on the podium.
If anything, that may be determined to be a compelling case. With that track record - doing it when it counts for the Olympics (Nationals and the games) - and the desire for the USFSA to earn medals, Mirai may well have at least as likely a chance to do that as Ashley, providing the US with the chance of at least having someone who can stay on her feet, which Ashley hasn't proven in these sorts of situations. Given there's a question of whether or not any of the ladies can challenge for a medal at the Olympics, making placement and at least showing well important, that may also be a reason to go with Mira over Ashley...since it's likely the judges would react the same with their programs had it been what has happened BOTH of the last two seasons.
In fact, aside from just the regular pressure of the Olympics, and mentally trying to fight her own nerves and the voices in her head, Ashley would have the additional pressure of constantly being reminded that she didn't "earn" her way on the team. Because while some understand that the decision isn't based solely on Nationals, much of the public doesn't. And you can guarantee if she gets named to the team, there will be endless replays of her skates at Nationals, her "I'm sorry" on video, and other interviews of her talking about nearly just having missed out skating in TWO Olympics, not allowing her to escape that. While she'd get a ton of that now and in the upcoming weeks, she'll
really get that at the Olympics. Potentially being hugely challenging, given how Ashley's handled Olympic related pressure in the past.
Mirai, on the other hand, would get the headlines of the comeback girl everyone had written off showing she's still able to hold her own and do well, even under pressure. She'd get the headlines of being the only one with Olympic experience, the one who virtually no one thought would even get near the podium this week, let alone on it and yet proved her mettle. And she did so without even having a coach with her (if she makes it, I'm curious to see what happens as far as having a coach or not) In many ways, it'd give her a
flood of support, which could go an awfully long way.
If anything, I think the team could well be Gracie, Mirai and Ashley, leaving Polina off the team.
Regardless of what her juniors seasons have shown, and whether or not those can even count toward it, Polina has virtually no name recognition (here or around the world) which doesn't work in her favor. And while she's proven herself now in seniors, she's not been competing that way and experiencing the difference in pressure levels between juniors and seniors. The Olympics could be a hard way to first have to encounter those two things. Gracie - her name alone being a
huge advantage in recognition - at least has more senior experience, has been in higher pressure competitions and mostly done well, and she nailed Nationals. And then there's Mirai, a significant amount of time in seniors and experiencing that pressure (which obviously she has mixed results from) but she's proven she can handle pressure when it counts most, plus being the only one with previous Olympic experience.
It will be interesting to see what they end up deciding. And it'll be sad for whichever is the one to get left out.
