2009 BMO Canadian Figure Skating Championships

[rain]

My predictions (mixed with my hopes, lol)

Men:
1. Patrick Chan - at this moment I think he's head and shoulders above the other Canadian men in terms of total package. And I think his programs this season are masterpieces. I hope he keeps them for the Olympic season - there's still room for him to grow into them.
2. Fedor Andreev - more a hope than a prediction, this one. I have no idea where his training is at. But I remember him several years ago when he was landing triple axels and the quad. He had everything it takes.
3. Shawn Sawyer - he's got some good choreography this year.

Ladies:
1. Joannie Rochette - no brainer
2. Cynthia Phaneuf - a huge hope of mine. She may actually be back enough to snag this spot. She's on the rise while:
3. Mira Leung - she's on the decline. But Canadians always seems to be her uncharacteristically best performance of the season. I think this is one of the reasons the world team will not be announced until after 4cc. I think Skate Canada wants to give Phaneuf every chance to pass Leung.

Pairs:
1. Dube/Davison - love these two, but if they have a rough comp. it could conceivably go to:
2. Duhamel/Buntin
3. I'm at a bit of a loss with Langlois and Hay out. I want to see a bright new hope.

Dance:
Virtue/Moir - duh
Crone/Poirer - incredible results on the grand prix this year. Rising stars.
Weaver/Poje - they've stagnated since they first burst on the scene

 

[herios]

Maybe it would be better for Patrick to lose his title and take the load off his mind? That is a heck of a lot of pressure on our precious baby Patrick. Would it be possible for Patrick to take one triple axel (the combo one) out and replace it with 3sal-2toe for the nationals, while he is working on 3A?..

I am not sure what you mean, what kind of pressure are you talking about? If he lands one or both or neither one 3 axel, I am not expecting him to lose his title.

In order to get his 3 axel back, he needs to train it. Period. He has changed his technique, and that threw him for a loop. He needed to do that in order to get it right, what he had last year was an incorrect one, that is why he needed to change it. To be a challenger for the world podium, he needs a "correct triple axel", then he could tackle a triple behind it for a combo. In the absence of a quad, the second triple axel is paramount for a world medal.
the good thing for him, he is still young, plenty of time to master the correct technique, there is no need to put him under a lot of unnecessary pressure so early in his career.
In Canada right now, there is no real competition for him.

 

[siberia82]

Maybe it would be better for Patrick to lose his title and take the load off his mind? That is a heck of a lot of pressure on our precious baby Patrick.

I do get the impression that the Canadian public expects too much too soon from Patrick. I just wish there was some way to slow down the hype machine. I like the analogy he used in his GPF interview that Jeff had suddenly passed to him a very big torch and he found it to be quite heavy. No kidding!

Since we can't change how the media works, I think the only thing which will ease Patrick's burden is for another guy to step it up a notch. For a few years, the pressure was split between Buttle and Sandhu; we need a similar rivalry now.

Would it be possible for Patrick to take one triple axel (the combo one) out and replace it with 3sal-2toe for the nationals, while he is working on 3A?

Well, it's possible, but somehow I doubt he'll water down his LP.

anywho, thanks siberia82 for giving me such a detailed answer on my question.

You're welcome.

All you Canadians will be glad to hear the panel of judges has been selected.

http://gallery.photo.net/photo/618755-lg.jpg

:chorus: Now I know why the national judges are such blood suckers!

2. Fedor Andreev - more a hope than a prediction, this one. I have no idea where his training is at.

Did you get the chance to read this thread? http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?t=26097

But I remember him several years ago when he was landing triple axels and the quad. He had everything it takes.

He'll probably never attempt the quad again because that was the jump which killed his back. The pain may have subsided, but I don't think it will ever fully heal.

 

[redhotcoach]

I know the Fedorizers will hit the quick reply button after reading my post --- but I just can't see Fedor doing as well as they are predicting. I've seen him skate this season, and while he may be doing beautiful jumps, his programs are lacking the smoothness and structure that a well-trained athlete delivers. Granted there are wonderful highlights in his programs, but he was not skating like the Fedor I knew from the past (when he actually trained 3-4 hours a day all year round) At the elite level of competition, taking so much time off ice does affect your overall performance, even if the rotations still come easily. For example, his combination jumps in the programdon't have the same height and flow out of them that Patrick or Shawn has - or any of the top senior men for that matter. And, remember there are senior men with triple axels that don't even end up in the top ten! So I think Patrick will retain his title - triple axel or not. The fight for the next four positions is on -- and there may be room for some newcomers.

Don't get me wrong - if Fedor would only just decide that he is hungry for the number 2 spot and train properly like the other senior men - he might be in the running next season for that Olympic berth. However, if he decides for the 3rd year in a row - to stay off serious training until September - then he doesn't stand a chance.

 

[chuckm]

What suffers most when a skater skimps on training is stamina and muscle memory. The tension and pressure of a high-stakes competition takes a further toll. Those who train hard all season long have an edge vs those who throw their hats in the ring at the last moment.

 

[cloudkicker09]

Fedor is going to ROCK nationals, he is going to stand on that podium and make the world team.

 

[stevlin]

Vaughn Chipeur

A good athlete doesn't make excuses for their performance. Vaughn was sick, I doubt he would blame his performance on being ill.Two events so close together, we forget that he doesn't have the same competitve experience as most. Let's give Vaughn a chance, he's an exciting skater too watch. Good luck.

Hi, I really like Vaughn's skating, like a diamond in the rough. His jumps are so high. He is so cute with his blonde. redish hair. At least that looks the color on my tv. Are there any new videos of Vaughn's skating? There are just a couple on you tube. I'm from the USA but prefer Canadian skaters. I'd love to know if Vaughn has been improving. Thanks

 

[dance4u]

Vaughn

The triple axel looks great and the choreography has improved. he needs to compete likes he practises.

 

[siberia82]

I've seen him skate this season

Thank you for your observations on Andreev, I appreciate it. Because of his current "second-rate" status, it's difficult even for his Canadian fans to get any updates on him. Out of curiosity, where/when did you see him skate? Have you talked to him at all?

And just to clarify, his fans are called Fedor Fanatics, while his nickname is The Fedorizer.

I think some people missed this article, so I'll repost it here. It's called "B.C. coach Joanne McLeod looks for more medals at nationals" http://www.vancouversun.com/Sports/coach+Joanne+McLeod+looks+more+medals+nationals/1163348/story.html

 

[Medusa]

"I feel Kevin deserves to be going to worlds this year," said McLeod. "He's knocking on the door for top-10 in the world. It comes down to a question whether the judging panel in Saskatoon has the guts to give him the program component marks he deserves."

That's one strange statement. My translation would be: "My guy can do Quads, so please ignore that everything else about his skating, including the actual quality of the jumps, is mediocre."

If he lands and fully rotates enough jumps to earn a spot on the podium - fine, let him go to Worlds. But among all the Canadian guys, Reynolds is just bleh. And I really have nothing against him, he is really young, he will grow older and he will learn - and maybe will develop a style of his own. But a week at Tarasova and strange costumes will not fix it. It needs time.

 

[chuckm]

Maybe the judges in Saskatoon will give Kevin Reynolds huge PCS scores and ignore his URs and wonky landings. It's Nationals, after all.

But if he goes to Worlds, the ISU judges and tech panel will give him what he deserves, which is what he got at his GP events this year. Top 10 in the World? Maybe if 4-5 of the top skaters bomb majorly.

Although Kevin is young, he is not that young. Kevin looks to be about 14 because of his horrid haircut and fussy costumes, but he is 18 and is actually 5 months older than Patrick Chan.

All the other podium contenders are considerably older than Chan and Reynolds: Andreev is 26, Chipeur turns 24 in two weeks, and Sawyer is 23.

 

[cloudkicker09]

Any practice reports? News? Anything, especially anything Fedor related.

 

[herios]

Maybe the judges in Saskatoon will give Kevin Reynolds huge PCS scores and ignore his URs and wonky landings. It's Nationals, after all.

But if he goes to Worlds, the ISU judges and tech panel will give him what he deserves, which is what he got at his GP events this year. Top 10 in the World? Maybe if 4-5 of the top skaters bomb majorly.

Although Kevin is young, he is not that young. Kevin looks to be about 14 because of his horrid haircut and fussy costumes, but he is 18 and is actually 5 months older than Patrick Chan.

All the other podium contenders are considerably older than Chan and Reynolds: Andreev is 26, Chipeur turns 24 in two weeks, and Sawyer is 23.

I really hope the Canadian judges are not that insane to protect skaters with UR jumps, it's been the most scrutinized flaw internationally this year and what would that earn to the Canadian federation? So close to the Olympics, the LA worlds actually will count as the qualifier for the olympics and canada is interested to obtain as many berths as possible.

Kevin is still young, but you are right, he is not that young. His biggest problem is that he "skates young", unlike Patrick Chan who skates "beyond" his age.

Artistically he is not "soup yet", and while I applaud the intention, 1 week with Tarasova, can't do miracles.

He reminds me of Tim Goebel as of 1998, so his best chances are definitely in the 2014 Olympics. And I just read Joannie McLeod's report, she is quite desillusional, especially as far as Mira Leung and McCurdy / Coreno is concerned. She is hoping for a medal in ice dance? good luck there! The international judges were sound and clear, Kraatz's team doesn't stand a chance in front of Crone and Poirier, and also they won't make up ground on Weaver / Poje.
Mira might still get one, because all the other ladies (except Joannie) are usually dismal, i am starting to get tired of seeing her doing the same odd jumps for ever, her technique is so bad, that I feel like taking a bathroom break when she skates

 

[npa]

Guys, did we have agents from the place? I hope we eill see photos, practies reports soon!

 

[lmarie086]

Predictions

Dance-
Gold: Virtue/Moir (obvious)
Silver: Weaver/Poje (this is a hope. I prefer them to C/P by far, but realistically I know they very well might not beat them this year)
Bronze: Crone/Poirier
4th: Chong/Gfeller

Pairs-
Gold: Duhamel/Buntin (I was already starting to like them better than D/D last season, and they've made great strides this season. But it could easily go either way)
Silver: Dube/Davison (I like them, but not a big fan of this season's programs. But again, it could easily go either way. I hope both teams skate well)
Bronze: No idea

Men-
Gold: Patrick Chan (obvious)
Silver: Vaughn Chipeur
Bronze: Shawn Sawyer
4th: Fedor Andreev

Women-
Gold: Joannie Rochette (so obvious)
Silver: Cynthia Phaneuf
Bronze: Mira Leung

 

[fumie_fumie]

Folks

CBC has a great preview on the natonals. Enjoy. Minus 35 degree in Saskatoon, haha.

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/ondemand/

And more on Patrick baby,

http://www.nationalpost.com/sports/story.html?id=1161634

 

[siberia82]

Thank you so much for the links fumie_fumie! :thumbsup:

Hee hee, I think it's awesome that Kurt mentioned Andreev as a podium contender! Not bad for a guy wasn't even on the National Team, didn't compete in a major event since last year and almost quit during the summer. If Kurt is taking him seriously, that means he was VERY impressed with the progress Fedor has displayed in his new programs.

 

[cloudkicker09]

I can't see it, I don't live in Canada

Can someone tell me what they EXACTLY said about Fedor

 

[siberia82]

I can't see it, I don't live in Canada

Can someone tell me what they EXACTLY said about Fedor

After naming the usual suspects for the other two spots (Reynolds, Sawyer and Chipeur), Browning then adds, "And I'm going to throw in Fedor Andreev, who's like the race car driving, supermodel-turned-figure-skater guy. BIG triple Axels on some videos I've seen earlier, anything could happen."

I'm pretty sure the vids Kurt was referring to are the SP and LP that surfaced on YouTube recently. It's interesting that he has to get his information on Fedor's new routines the same way we do!

It's amusing when Scott Russell says, "Everyone's licking their chops thinking about what the men's competition will be like..." He kinda makes our men's singles skaters sound like fresh meat!

 

[screech]

I liked the analysis in the video and how Kurt went about it. He was honest saying we know who's going to win dance and ladies and probably mens.

I liked his comment about how Joannie is the next great Canadian skater but it's not him who needs to believe it, she does. So often we hear commentators saying how great skaters are but never mentioning the skaters mindset, so I liked his comment there.

I also like how he did mention Kevin's lack of anything other than the quad, as well as Shawn's underrotations. Again, honesty. And his description of Fedor was great.

IMO at ths Canadians, dance will be pretty boring as we basically know who will be 1 and who will be 2/3 (though not what order 2/3 will be). Ladies again, we know who will be 1 and the same thing for 2/3. Pairs will be exciting as it's the only one where 1st is really up for grabs between 2 awesome teams. And mens, well, mens is to Canada as ladies is to the US - the main event and I don't think it will be a letdown this year with 5 real contendors fighting for 3 spots (Chan, Sawyer, Andreev, Reynolds, Chipeur).

Is it the weekend yet?