2015-16 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[ice coverage]

Nathan Chen: Ready For the Big Leagues

By Elvin Walker
Published: 01/16/16
http://www.ifsmagazine.com/articles/32831-nathan-chen-ready-for-the-big-leagues​

The whole article is worth reading, but here is an excerpt from near the end:

“I always focus on my own skating, but I if I have to look ahead, I think that I can compete for a spot on the podium,” Chen said. “I would like to go to the World Championships so that I can see what it is like to compete at that level.

“Of course, U.S. Figure Skating will make the final decision, but if I am in a position where I could be named to both the World and the Junior World teams, I would like to do that.

“I would like a chance to win the World Junior title. It would be a nice way to close out my junior career.”​

ETA: Forgot to wish Nathan well in St. Paul :yay:.​

 

[karne]

Junior World Championships: 14-20 Mar, Hungary

Senior World Championships: 29 Mar-3 Apr, USA

That's just asking for trouble.

 

[silverlake22]

Nationals will be exciting but sad with all these withdrawals. Who will step up to the plate?

I think karne wants Nathan to go to JW because of what happened with Kovtun in 2013, crumbling under pressure at senior worlds when he would have very likely won a medal at Junior Worlds and maybe even the title. I see the argument and agree doing both competitions would be a lot, but I think it will come down to the results at Nationals. With all these withdrawals, the US may need Nathan on the senior Worlds team. But, if Nathan gets beaten by 3 of the older guys, then they should probably go instead and he can go to JW where he has a good chance to be the champ.

 

[FTnoona]

Wouldn't the bigger issue be the traveling? He'd probably have less than 9 days in between junior and senior worlds with all the traveling.

 

[karne]

I think karne wants Nathan to go to JW because of what happened with Kovtun in 2013, crumbling under pressure at senior worlds when he would have very likely won a medal at Junior Worlds and maybe even the title.

I certainly don't see any reason to rob Nathan of a Junior World title. And the USFS clearly is enamoured of the idea of having Junior World Champions, given they originally wanted to hold Jason back another year purely for that reason. He has an excellent chance of winning it and I do think it would be a much more sensible idea, given that so far he has competed the whole season as a Junior. Thinking that he might do both is plain ridiculous. A nine-day turnaround, on two different continents, with completely different program layouts, for a skater who already has a considerable injury list? It's a disaster waiting to happen.

He's sixteen and there is plenty of time in his career. Let him have the chance the others did to develop on a more relaxed scale. Yes, this year is not ideal, but does he really need the pressure on him for the three spots at sixteen?


EDIT:

And it is not just the risk of injury, or stamina, or program layout. As Team Australia found out, sometimes, you get on the plane, and your bags don't, and getting them back again can be...stressful and challenging.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

He's sixteen and there is plenty of time in his career. Let him have the chance the others did to develop on a more relaxed scale. Yes, this year is not ideal, but does he really need the pressure on him for the three spots at sixteen?

This. Additionally, for all the talent Nathan has, he is a junior. He skates like a junior, he jumps like a junior (he has the difficulty, but not quite the quality of the senior men) - I don't think he'd fare as well at senior worlds as some people think. And that's fine, because he's young and has been on the junior circuit the whole season. He could go to junior worlds, win the title and then have the whole summer to get better and make a nice statement in the senior ranks next season. But rushing him up now might only result in him getting swallowed up in the senior ranks (if the men skate like they did at the GPF... oh boy).

Also, a team of Max, Adam and Ross for example is nothing to sneeze at. It will be a huge task to keep the 3 spots, but that's true for any Nathan including team too.

 

[Weathergal]

Junior World Championships: 14-20 Mar, Hungary

Senior World Championships: 29 Mar-3 Apr, USA

That's just asking for trouble.

Nationals will be exciting but sad with all these withdrawals. Who will step up to the plate?

I think karne wants Nathan to go to JW because of what happened with Kovtun in 2013, crumbling under pressure at senior worlds when he would have very likely won a medal at Junior Worlds and maybe even the title. I see the argument and agree doing both competitions would be a lot, but I think it will come down to the results at Nationals. With all these withdrawals, the US may need Nathan on the senior Worlds team. But, if Nathan gets beaten by 3 of the older guys, then they should probably go instead and he can go to JW where he has a good chance to be the champ.

I think if three older men beat him, they should definitely go to Worlds.

Wouldn't the bigger issue be the traveling? He'd probably have less than 9 days in between junior and senior worlds with all the traveling.

I certainly don't see any reason to rob Nathan of a Junior World title. And the USFS clearly is enamoured of the idea of having Junior World Champions, given they originally wanted to hold Jason back another year purely for that reason. He has an excellent chance of winning it and I do think it would be a much more sensible idea, given that so far he has competed the whole season as a Junior. Thinking that he might do both is plain ridiculous. A nine-day turnaround, on two different continents, with completely different program layouts, for a skater who already has a considerable injury list? It's a disaster waiting to happen.

He's sixteen and there is plenty of time in his career. Let him have the chance the others did to develop on a more relaxed scale. Yes, this year is not ideal, but does he really need the pressure on him for the three spots at sixteen?


EDIT:

And it is not just the risk of injury, or stamina, or program layout. As Team Australia found out, sometimes, you get on the plane, and your bags don't, and getting them back again can be...stressful and challenging.

This. Additionally, for all the talent Nathan has, he is a junior. He skates like a junior, he jumps like a junior (he has the difficulty, but not quite the quality of the senior men) - I don't think he'd fare as well at senior worlds as some people think. And that's fine, because he's young and has been on the junior circuit the whole season. He could go to junior worlds, win the title and then have the whole summer to get better and make a nice statement in the senior ranks next season. But rushing him up now might only result in him getting swallowed up in the senior ranks (if the men skate like they did at the GPF... oh boy).

Also, a team of Max, Adam and Ross for example is nothing to sneeze at. It will be a huge task to keep the 3 spots, but that's true for any Nathan including team too.

Agree with all of the above. Even if he's on the podium, I think Junior Worlds is best for him, especially because of the timing and injury issues. And I also agree that Max, Adam, Ross (or some other permutation like Max, Adam, Grant...etc.) will represent the U.S. well. (and even if you remove one of those skaters and add Nathan, they'd still be quite challenged to keep 3 spots in the current field).

 

[ice coverage]

@icenetwork

Ricky Dornbush tells us that he's looking at a recovery time of about 3 weeks and should return to "peak performance" in a month or so.
6:48 AM - 17 Jan 2016
https://twitter.com/icenetwork/status/688734535085723650​

---

As for Nathan:
Depending on everyone's results at Nats, seems within the realm of possibility to me that he will warrant a spot at Worlds. Reserving judgment .

 

[StitchMonkey]

I certainly don't see any reason to rob Nathan of a Junior World title. And the USFS clearly is enamoured of the idea of having Junior World Champions, given they originally wanted to hold Jason back another year purely for that reason. He has an excellent chance of winning it and I do think it would be a much more sensible idea, given that so far he has competed the whole season as a Junior. Thinking that he might do both is plain ridiculous. A nine-day turnaround, on two different continents, with completely different program layouts, for a skater who already has a considerable injury list? It's a disaster waiting to happen.

I think people are really forgetting this part this season. Junior and senior programs are DIFFERENT. He has gotten very comfortable with his junior program, who knows how it will translate. It may feel off... especially given all the hype around them in their junior form.

I would rather him focus on Junior worlds focusing on one program layout... not two. Junior worlds is not something to be scoffed at, it should be taken seriously and trained for with respect.

I don't think Nathan will do as well at senior worlds this year as many think. I think Max, Adam, Ross and Grant have a much better chance of placing higher. I think that come next season with a world title attached to his name Nathan will do much better than showing up this year - but we have so much talent this year I don't think it will do much for him this year. Especially considering both of last year's world junior medalists (ladies and mens) are considered medal contenders this year.... i think they will get the love and attention.

 

[rosacotton]

In a nutshell, all the men in the final flight fell at least once. If I got any of the below wrong, please correct me.

1) Starting off - Johnny Weir - who was in 2nd after the SP - crashed into the boards, got up and tried to restart his program. He ended up withdrawing after it was obvious that he was too injured too continue.
2) Michael Weiss, who won his last national title, did so without landing a triple axle and also falling on at least quad in his LP. I also think he didn't land a triple axle in the SP, either. He basically won this national title by survival.
3) Tim Goebel, who was in 1st after the SPt, ended up finishing 2nd after not landing a quad and splatting on two jumps. It was very obvious that Frank must had kicked his tail before Worlds two months later.
4) One (tiny) highlight was that Ryan Jahnke managed to pull from 6th to 3rd place by pure survival.

Yikes!

 

[ice coverage]

I think people are really forgetting this part this season. Junior and senior programs are DIFFERENT. He has gotten very comfortable with his junior program, who knows how it will translate. It may feel off... especially given all the hype around them in their junior form.

I would rather him focus on Junior worlds focusing on one program layout... not two. Junior worlds is not something to be scoffed at, it should be taken seriously and trained for with respect. ...

To play devil's advocate :

A logical extension of your argument is that Nathan and Vincent should not be competing as Seniors even at Nats ... that both should be competing at Juniors at Nats to keep the Junior versions of their programs in tip-top shape for Junior Worlds.

Would you say that competing as Seniors as Nats shows a lack of respect for Junior Worlds? (IMO, it does not.)

 

[Mrs. P]

I think people are really forgetting this part this season. Junior and senior programs are DIFFERENT. He has gotten very comfortable with his junior program, who knows how it will translate. It may feel off... especially given all the hype around them in their junior form.

I would rather him focus on Junior worlds focusing on one program layout... not two. Junior worlds is not something to be scoffed at, it should be taken seriously and trained for with respect.

I don't think Nathan will do as well at senior worlds this year as many think. I think Max, Adam, Ross and Grant have a much better chance of placing higher. I think that come next season with a world title attached to his name Nathan will do much better than showing up this year - but we have so much talent this year I don't think it will do much for him this year. Especially considering both of last year's world junior medalists (ladies and mens) are considered medal contenders this year.... i think they will get the love and attention.

The main difference between senior and junior programs is length (30 sec) and an extra choreographed step sequence. Otherwise the guys do the same amount of jumps and spins. Yes, it's certainly a challenge to go back and forth between the two, but it's not like Ice Dance, where you end up doing two completely different short dances (which why many junior teams in the U.S. stick to that level if they compete junior internationally).

And I'm sure Nathan trained senior programs because he is competing as a senior nationally. So it's not like he wouldn't be prepared for senior worlds.

And I don't really think that a World Junior Title is THAT indicative of future success or even short-term success. It's nice to have a World Junior title, but I don't think it's absolutely necessary.

 

[musicfan80]

@icenetwork

Ricky Dornbush tells us that he's looking at a recovery time of about 3 weeks and should return to "peak performance" in a month or so.
6:48 AM - 17 Jan 2016
https://twitter.com/icenetwork/status/688734535085723650​

Thanks for the link to the tweet, golden. I'm glad that Ricky is expected to recover fully - although I hate that his season is over now. It's too bad that their aren't any International Senior Bs in the spring. But would having those competition really benefit anyway?

I think people are really forgetting this part this season. Junior and senior programs are DIFFERENT. He has gotten very comfortable with his junior program, who knows how it will translate. It may feel off... especially given all the hype around them in their junior form.

I would rather him focus on Junior worlds focusing on one program layout... not two. Junior worlds is not something to be scoffed at, it should be taken seriously and trained for with respect.

I don't think Nathan will do as well at senior worlds this year as many think. I think Max, Adam, Ross and Grant have a much better chance of placing higher. I think that come next season with a world title attached to his name Nathan will do much better than showing up this year - but we have so much talent this year I don't think it will do much for him this year. Especially considering both of last year's world junior medalists (ladies and mens) are considered medal contenders this year.... i think they will get the love and attention.

I think, given all the withdrawals, there are two spots for Worlds/4CCs that are wide open (I am assuming barring a meltdown, Max will be going to both). I think that Nathan has a good shot of going. I also think that U.S. Nationals can be a very strange competition and that USFS doesn't have any problem with leaving someone home if they don't "perform for the moment". Jeremy Abbott, despite his international experience, stayed home in 2011 and 2013 after being edged out (by a little bit) by Ross Miner.

I don't 100% agree with Jenny of TSL that this is automatically make the men's competition exciting to watch. It could make it exciting to watch. Last year, I though that Jason and Max were locks for Worlds that there was one open spot for Jeremy, Ross, or Ricky. Who ended up going to Worlds? Jason, Adam, and Joshua.

So I will keeping wishing Jason, Joshua, Ricky, and Jordan the best in recovering 100% and coming back next season better than ever. And I am really looking forward to watching U.S. Nationals next weekend and hoping, that for all disciplines, it ends up being one of best Nationals ever!

 

[Ice Dance]

If Nathan earns the spot at Senior Worlds, he earns the spot at Senior Worlds. He is saying he wants the spot. Nice and clear. And that he has very reasonable goals for why he wants it. "To see what it is like to compete at that level."

Back in 1994 a certain young lady went to the U.S. Championships & finished second. (Having finished in a modest sixth place in her debut senior season at Nationals--after ignoring her coach's advice and taking her senior test early). She then went to Junior Worlds and won it. She then went to Worlds and placed eighth.

It all worked out very well. Nathan reminds me quite a bit of her. He doesn't have all the artistry or polish of the senior men. Neither did she in 1994. He's not likely to finish in the final group at Senior Worlds. Neither was she. His coach is reluctant to have him rushed into the senior ranks. So was hers. He has solid technique with some issues on the axle. She had solid technique with some issues on the flip. He has a reputation for being a hard worker who wants to win every time out. So did she. He's a competitor. So was she.

He's the one putting in the work. He's the one taking the risk. If he earns the spot, he earns the spot. (And, folks, his record at U.S. Nationals is as stellar a competitive record as I have ever seen for an athlete his age).

The ice is the same for everyone. All the other guys are free to go out and try to place higher.

I would LOVE to see everyone bring their A-game.

 

[StitchMonkey]

To play devil's advocate :

A logical extension of your argument is that Nathan and Vincent should not be competing as Seniors even at Nats ... that both should be competing at Juniors at Nats to keep the Junior versions of their programs in tip-top shape for Junior Worlds.

Would you say that competing as Seniors as Nats shows a lack of respect for Junior Worlds? (IMO, it does not.)

Honestly I am not sure how i feel about them skating as senior domestically while juniors internationally. It is one of those things I sorta just accept that i don't fully get the nuance of, because to me it is a head scratcher. Also didn't Vincent at sectionals run his junior program and just accept a time violation? I actually don't mind that and almost prefer it if they are skating junior internationally. I am not really a fan of the playing both sides thing we have going on. I suspect someday it will make more sense to me as clearly no one else really cares much.

The main difference between senior and junior programs is length (30 sec) and an extra choreographed step sequence. Otherwise the guys do the same amount of jumps and spins. Yes, it's certainly a challenge to go back and forth between the two, but it's not like Ice Dance, where you end up doing two completely different short dances (which why many junior teams in the U.S. stick to that level if they compete junior internationally).

And I'm sure Nathan trained senior programs because he is competing as a senior nationally. So it's not like he wouldn't be prepared for senior worlds.

And I don't really think that a World Junior Title is THAT indicative of future success or even short-term success. It's nice to have a World Junior title, but I don't think it's absolutely necessary.

I am sure he is training both... and I am not sure that is ideal to be honest. While you are correct that on paper they are not that different, they can feel very different as small changes can have a larger than expected impact. I actually worry that the more Nathan's programs are anticipated the more off they will feel when they are different than what was expected. They will feel different in their senior form no matter what. And yes i concede that looking better is a possibility under this umbrella.

Junior worlds is weird. It has not always been a good indicator, but it does seem in recent years TPTB have been trying to give it more respect, or at least giving reigning medalists respect. I think that is a good thing and a good way to grow the prestige of the event. I think it will serve Nathan well next season though... even if the current trend turns out to be a fad.

I think, given all the withdrawals, there are two spots for Worlds/4CCs that are wide open (I am assuming barring a meltdown, Max will be going to both). I think that Nathan has a good shot of going. I also think that U.S. Nationals can be a very strange competition and that USFS doesn't have any problem with leaving someone home if they don't "perform for the moment". Jeremy Abbott, despite his international experience, stayed home in 2011 and 2013 after being edged out (by a little bit) by Ross Miner.

I don't 100% agree with Jenny of TSL that this is automatically make the men's competition exciting to watch. It could make it exciting to watch. Last year, I though that Jason and Max were locks for Worlds that there was one open spot for Jeremy, Ross, or Ricky. Who ended up going to Worlds? Jason, Adam, and Joshua.

So I will keeping wishing Jason, Joshua, Ricky, and Jordan the best in recovering 100% and coming back next season better than ever. And I am really looking forward to watching U.S. Nationals next weekend and hoping, that for all disciplines, it ends up being one of best Nationals ever!

I agree it could be unpredictable. It is hard to know if they will be skating with "this is my shot" vigor or "I don't want to be next" tentativeness. I also agree who knows what USFSA will do in terms of assignments. It also can be a game of trying to tell who does well at nationals because they had a good skate and who does well because they are ready and prepared for the second half of the season. So who knows what will happen. I think at this point Max, Adam, Ross, Nathan, and Grant all have a good chance to make it to senior worlds... and based on last year I kinda expect at least one person to go to worlds who is not on that list.

I don't know if Max will be at 4CC though. Does he need the points for starting orders... i suspect we will be looking at that soon. I am just not sure it is worth it - he may want to take the bubble wrap approach.

 

[ice coverage]

Honestly I am not sure how i feel about them skating as senior domestically while juniors internationally. It is one of those things I sorta just accept that i don't fully get the nuance of, because to me it is a head scratcher. Also didn't Vincent at sectionals run his junior program and just accept a time violation? I actually don't mind that and almost prefer it if they are skating junior internationally. I am not really a fan of the playing both sides thing we have going on. I suspect someday it will make more sense to me as clearly no one else really cares much. ...

Thanks for your point re Vincent at sectionals. I had missed :hopelessness: that he skated his junior programs there.

http://govincentzhou.com/2015/11/30/midwestern-sectionals/​

I would add that the reason Vincent entered sectionals was to prepare for the JGPF.
He already had a bye to Nats.

So I don't want to assume that he will be skating his junior programs again at Nats. We'll have to stay tuned ....

 

[StitchMonkey]

Thanks for your point re Vincent at sectionals. I had missed :hopelessness: that he skated his junior programs there.

http://govincentzhou.com/2015/11/30/midwestern-sectionals/​

I would add that the reason Vincent entered sectionals was to prepare for the JGPF.
He already had a bye to Nats.

So I don't want to assume that he will skating his junior programs again at Nats. We'll have to stay tuned ....

I knew he was doing it for the JGPF, and thought it was a clever thing to do. No idea what he will skate at Nationals... but Tom Z did post this yesterday

https://www.facebook.com/424453407653386/videos/852826798149376/

 

[MFarone]

Yes Vincent did his Jr. program. I think it was mentioned at the time that Tom wanted him to do 2 3A and a quad in the FS and wanted him to have the experience of doing it in competition. His FS was very impressive. The FB clip quotes Tom as Vincent doing his homework for his senior debut at Nationals so I would imagine we will see a senior, not junior, program.

 

[Jammers]

If Nathan finishes in the top 3 he needs to go to Sr Worlds. We need to encourage talent and if he beats all the other men he shouldn't get punished because of his age. I don't exactly see world beaters other then Aaron and maybe Adam in how well the other US Men would do at Worlds.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

But the point is that no matter how well Nathan does at nationals, he's not a "world beater" either and additionally completely unproven against the non-american senior men. He's got the difficulty, but there are a lot of other points that are still lacking (polish, speed, power, audience connection, transitions,...) - again, understandably due to his age, but it's not the age per se that should hold him back. It's the fact that he's simple not as good a skater as IMO enough of the other american senior men are (Aaron, Rippon, Hochstein and Miner for example).