2016 JGP St Gervais Entries

[Ice Dance]

If I was Russia, I'd send Shpilevaya & Smirnov here. No Parsons, no M&C, no L&D. This is likely as good as it's going to get for S&S. I don't know if they would be considered favorites against A&T at home and C&P, but--again--probably as good as it's going to get.

And Russia didn't put Shpilevaya & Smirnov on the sub list. Well, likely facing one of the top two junior teams in the world in both competitions it is then.

 

[Layback11]

Yay! Thoughts:

Ladies: Kaori Sakamoto should easily take this one. Rin Nitaya, Alexia Paganini, Valeria Mikhaikova and Ye Lim Kim will probably be the main contenders for the other medals.

Men: Space Elvis (Nicolas Nadeau) seems like the favorite here. Tomoki Hiwatashi, Jun Hwan Cha and Koshiro Shimada are also contenders. I haven't actually heard of most of these people...

Dance: should be between Schevchenko/Eremenko, Abachkina/Thauron and Carriera/Ponomarenko. And I'm hoping my #smolpreshbbs Gropman/Sommerville will make the top five. :luv17:

On M/C and teh Parsons (not a typo ): if how Hawayek/Baker did in their debut season vs. how they did in their sophomore season is any indication, not moving up until the Olympic season might be smart. Then again, the opposite happened to Yanovskaya/Mozgov, so...

(If M/C split, I would cry, so they better not end up like Y/M.)

 

[invisiblespiral]

I actually think YR has a chance of winning this, if Russia's actually sending the people they listed. Also, if Korea sends Cha here, he has a chance of medaling.

And I would also cry if M/C split too, although I kind of understand why they and P/P are still juniors.

 

[Layback11]

I actually think YR has a chance of winning this, if Russia's actually sending the people they listed. Also, if Korea sends Cha here, he has a chance of medaling.

And I would also cry if M/C split too, although I kind of understand why they and P/P are still juniors.

I've never actually watched Ye Rim , but from what I've heard, she could definitely be competitive. However, Kaori's the only one of the group I listed who's actually been to Junior Worlds, and is an established contender. Rin and Valeria have one season of junior experience each and neither really made a huge splash on the JGP last year. Alexia and Ye Rim are new. So I thought Kaori had it made. But I will check out Ye Rim shortly, and I might change my mind.

 

[angelicadiablo]

I've never actually watched Ye Rim , but from what I've heard, she could definitely be competitive. However, Kaori's the only one of the group I listed who's actually been to Junior Worlds, and is an established contender. Rin and Valeria have one season of junior experience each and neither really made a huge splash on the JGP last year. Alexia and Ye Rim are new. So I thought Kaori had it made. But I will check out Ye Rim shortly, and I might change my mind.

She did all of her SP jumping passes in the 2nd half and 6 of them in the 2nd half of her LP. She also does a 3Lz+3T+2Lo in her LP. I love her SP and I think she's going to be the spoiler for this season.

 

[invisiblespiral]

I've never actually watched Ye Rim , but from what I've heard, she could definitely be competitive. However, Kaori's the only one of the group I listed who's actually been to Junior Worlds, and is an established contender. Rin and Valeria have one season of junior experience each and neither really made a huge splash on the JGP last year. Alexia and Ye Rim are new. So I thought Kaori had it made. But I will check out Ye Rim shortly, and I might change my mind.

YR SP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erlFPXDtqd8

YR FS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHrhpJLBTPc

She also might be romanzing her name as Yelim.

 

[Layback11]

She did all of her SP jumping passes in the 2nd half and 6 of them in the 2nd half of her LP. She also does a 3Lz+3T+2Lo in her LP. I love her SP and I think she's going to be the spoiler for this season.

Holy WOW, even more backloaded than Evgenia... That seems like it should be impossible!

 

[Ice Dance]

She did all of her SP jumping passes in the 2nd half and 6 of them in the 2nd half of her LP. She also does a 3Lz+3T+2Lo in her LP. I love her SP and I think she's going to be the spoiler for this season.

Yes, and Ye Lim has more in her arsenal. Last season at Nationals she hit 3Lz+3Lo+2 Lo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nh0LlpCTZLo

Not sure if she was going for it during the JGP qualifying, but it's possible she was and that was why the opening combo was a 3Lz+poppedLo. Followed up by a mental scramble, a late program attempt at a different triple triple combo, and the zayak. Guessing it will take her a season to get her feet wet, but how many 12-year-olds even consider tackling 3 different triple triple combos? I'm intrigued!

 

[FanOfTeamKorea]

Team Korea
Junior Men : Si Hyeong LEE
Junior Ladies : Ye Lim KIM

 

[Layback11]

YR SP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erlFPXDtqd8

YR FS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHrhpJLBTPc

She also might be romanzing her name as Yelim.

Okay, finally got a chance to watch! She could definitely win this one if clean. Her tech is insane (if she were going for the 3Lz-3Lo-and it kind of looked like a pop, so I think she is-that would be three 3-3s! ), and her spins are strong too. Her interpretation seems a little flat to me, and in the SP she could use some more speed, but the tech is there and she's so young that there's a lot of potential for improvement. Programs: both kind of borderline. They're fine but I don't love either of them.

So, mixed feelings: I love her gutsy layout and spins, but not necessarily her programs, SS or interpretation. However, the raw potential is there, and at this point that's what's important. :agree:

 

[matscol]

Maxine is a beautiful skater with sometimes inconsistent jumps. Last year she ran into the bottleneck of novices at midwestern sectionals (includes Gabrielle Noullet, now with Tammy Gambill; Ashley Lin; Meiryla Findley; Pooja Kalyan; and Kaitlyn Nguyen, age 12, who recently had a huge score at Jr. in the LA Open and will probably be doing 3Lz+3T this week at Glacier Falls).

That group of novices was so good that Ashley Kim - who has looked very good so far this summer - didn't even make it out of SW regionals.

For a clue as to the rest of the season's JGP entries, keep an eye on ladies Jrs at Glacier Falls this week; with the exception of a few (Alexia, Maxine and Ashley Kim in particular) that's a nationals+ level lineup.

 

[Shayuki]

Huh, I don't get the Russian ones. Tarusina is the best skater out of those by a mile and Konstantinova is #2 just as clearly but they are both subs? Hrm... I really hope that those two are the ones they send.

 

[burntBREAD]

Okay, finally got a chance to watch! She could definitely win this one if clean. Her tech is insane (if she were going for the 3Lz-3Lo-and it kind of looked like a pop, so I think she is-that would be three 3-3s! ), and her spins are strong too. Her interpretation seems a little flat to me, and in the SP she could use some more speed, but the tech is there and she's so young that there's a lot of potential for improvement. Programs: both kind of borderline. They're fine but I don't love either of them.

So, mixed feelings: I love her gutsy layout and spins, but not necessarily her programs, SS or interpretation. However, the raw potential is there, and at this point that's what's important. :agree:

She can't do three 3-3s, otherwise she'll be repeating the lutz, loop, AND toe loop. The very last 3F-3T looked like a improvisation (and then she Zayaked by doing four combos ). Positively insane tech though!

 

[boskil]

Huh, I don't get the Russian ones. Tarusina is the best skater out of those by a mile and Konstantinova is #2 just as clearly but they are both subs? Hrm... I really hope that those two are the ones they send.

Two substitutes are significantly better than the chosen duo. Last season scores and placements show it clearly. Besides, Mikhailova got her chance last season in JGP twice and couldn't medal.
There are dozens of promissing girls waiting for a chance and she's getting another shot, while her latest scores have been around 160 (poor for Russian junior).
Then there is the matter of low subs number - only two, while US and Japan packed the starting sheet with all the names they could - remembering 15/16 season problems with empty Sakhanovich's spot in last GP, I don't get RUS feds strategy at all.

 

[bluelutz]

Okay, so let's compare them with SP Videos.

1) Korea 2016 YE LIM KIM @JGP qualification event

2) Japan 2016 Kaori Sakamoto @Recent Ice Show

3) Japan 2015 Rin Nitaya @Japanese Senior Nationals(December)

4) Russia 2015 Valeriia Mikhailova @JGP Colorado Springs (last year) https://youtu.be/628x6RibTk0


I could not find this year's SP of Rin, Valeriia, Alina & Alexia.
If you have links, please add them on this thread.
As Kaori's performance is from some recent show, she did only 3F+2T,
but I assume she will definitely do 3F+3T, which is very consistent combo for her.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5) U.S. 2016 Alexia Paganini @U.S. Nationals Novice Ladies (January) FP

6) Russia 2016 Alina Zagitova @Russian Nationals(January) FP

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7) Russia 2016 Anna TARUSINA @Russian Nationals(January) FP

 

[bluelutz]

Judging with these video, Ye Lim is a very strong skater, but I would not say she will definitely win this competition.
As you notice, she has all her jumps in the second half, but Kaori and Rin have their three jumps in the second half as well.
And Ye Lim's 3T of 3Lz+3T is a bit under-rotated though I have seen she did it cleanly before.
The bigger difference is speed, power, height of jumps, SS and expression.
Kaori, Rin and Valeriia do them better than Ye Lim due to the difference of the age & experiences
though I think Ye Lim is better than Dabin when she came to the junior ranks,
and she is capable to win this especially because her very strong jumping contents in FP.

If Russia change their mind and send Anna Tarusina instead of Alina, I think she will win.

What your thoughts after watching these videos?

P.S.
I forgot to comment on Alexia,
she is a good skater, but I do not think she can beat Russians, Japanese & a Korean in this
unless she has made a huge improvement since January.

 

[boskil]

Okay, so let's compare them with SP Videos.

Thank you! :agree:
I think first two videos you linked to are the newest skates, so I just add newest free skates of the rest.

3) Japan 2016 March, Rin Nitaya @Coupe du Printemps

4) Russia 2016 February, Valeriia Mikhailova @Junior Moscow Championship

5) U.S. 2016 July, Alexia Paganini @Philadelphia Summer Championships

6) Russia 2016 April, Alina Zagitova @some domestic competition (don't remember where)

---------------------------RESERVE----------------------------------

7) Russia 2016 April, Anna TARUSINA @Russian Junior "B" Championships

8) Russia 2016 April, Stanislava Konstantinova @Russian Junior "B" Championships

I think one of the Rus girls and Korean Yelim Kim are favourites to win it. The strongest of Russians are 16yo Konstantinova (brilliant, solid domestic season, winning junior Tallin Trophy with the score of 191!) and 13,5yo Tarusina - (stellar, solid domestic season as well with plenty of medals and wins (latest scores around 180-190).
Zagitova, member of Tutberidze's group since 2015, though not exqusite skater yet, seems to be on a rise - has had one domestic medal, very nice 4th place finish (+178) at RusCup Final just behind Tarusina, Konstantinova and Fedichkina (strong field) and couple of higher placements and scores than Mikhailova, whose spot on JGP team is a bit of mystery to the fans (wrote about it above).

 

[Roman09]

Two substitutes are significantly better than the chosen duo. Last season scores and placements show it clearly. Besides, Mikhailova got her chance last season in JGP twice and couldn't medal.
There are dozens of promissing girls waiting for a chance and she's getting another shot, while her latest scores have been around 160 (poor for Russian junior).
Then there is the matter of low subs number - only two, while US and Japan packed the starting sheet with all the names they could - remembering 15/16 season problems with empty Sakhanovich's spot in last GP, I don't get RUS feds strategy at all.

If this list doesn't exchange, then there is only reason for this - protection. I had such suspicions against Mikhaylova last season, so they continue to be confirmed. As for Zagitova - there is a patronage from the coach (Eteri) in it. In this regard I really worry about P. Tsurskaya's health

 

[stryke]

Imo Zagitova is stronger than Mikhailova. She will continue to get stronger under Eteri and more consistent which will put her near the top of the Russian juniors. I think she has a big chance to medal here.

 

[TaeYeon]

<About korean JGP skater>
Video(2016. 7. 26~27 korean JGP seletion match)

1. Yelim Kim (61.xx+107.xx=169.xx) ---> JGP 1, 3
Sp(Donde voy) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmXfvCCNlbg

Fs(If I leave, Drama 'Empress Myeongseong' OST) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=td946NXmorQ


ㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡ


2. HaNul Kim (57.xx+109.xx=166.xx) ---> JGP 2, 4
Sp(?) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaOmQOdMuc4

Fs(Romeo and Juliet ver.Musical) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAw-aoei1BQ


ㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡ

3. Eunsoo Lim (52.xx+113.xx=165.xx) ---> JGP 5, 7
Sp(?) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwvUsqPysMo

Fs(Miss Saigon) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUegFbdxZXM