Andrew probably will take second place. And by scores (PCS and 3A) with even not clean skate (like at Cup of Mordovia) he definitely will be higher than Iliya. I doubt that Erokhov or Kovalev can prevent it.
Erokhov has a higher score in his first JGP.
Erokhov if clean has 4S and 4T, he will beat Torgahsev.