2018-19 U.S. Men’s figure skating

[Mrs. P]

Hey I like this little survey that is on the Japanese men/ladies threads! Let's try it here. Obviously answer with the applicable U.S. men.


1) Your favorite U.S. man in 2018
2) Your favorite program of the year
3) Your favorite performance
4) Your favorite costume
5) The biggest surprise
6) The most sad moment/event
7) The happiest moment/event
8) The most promising junior
9) The most promising senior
10) Your wish for 2019

 

[tosca]

Here is an in-depth article on Vincent.

https://www.ifsmagazine.com/vincent-zhou-ready-for-u-s-nationals/

Really happy to hear him say that he is “redefining his definition of acceptable rotation”. I do think he is super insightful and pretty self-aware and those are integral to him moving forward. I do have a soft spot for Vincent and hope we see all the work he has done with a successful performance at nationals!

*mentions Vincent and rotations in one post... waits for Karne to say something*

 

[karne]

Redefining his definition of acceptable rotation.

I...I...well, the exact phrase that came out of my mouth is not permitted on GS, so let's settle for what the golly gee batman.

If that's the attitude not only is it not at all a shock that he's getting called out so hard but I'm not expecting a single thing to have changed by US Nats. If he's only just "redefining his definition of acceptable rotation" to THE ACTUAL DEFINITION OF ACCEPTABLE ROTATION now then there's no way the problem is fixed.

Honestly, I'm gaping like a fish. He basically just admitted he knew he UR'd but to him, his UR jumps were an acceptable definition of rotation and the only reason it's being fixed is because the tech panels have been calling him on it more consistently.

That right there, folks. THAT'S why it's super important for tech panels to be STRICT. Because if they're not, you get terrible attitudes like that. Holy cow. I can't even.

 

[bobbob]

Redefining his definition of acceptable rotation.

I...I...well, the exact phrase that came out of my mouth is not permitted on GS, so let's settle for what the golly gee batman.

If that's the attitude not only is it not at all a shock that he's getting called out so hard but I'm not expecting a single thing to have changed by US Nats. If he's only just "redefining his definition of acceptable rotation" to THE ACTUAL DEFINITION OF ACCEPTABLE ROTATION now then there's no way the problem is fixed.

Honestly, I'm gaping like a fish. He basically just admitted he knew he UR'd but to him, his UR jumps were an acceptable definition of rotation and the only reason it's being fixed is because the tech panels have been calling him on it more consistently.

That right there, folks. THAT'S why it's super important for tech panels to be STRICT. Because if they're not, you get terrible attitudes like that. Holy cow. I can't even.

Calm down, Vincent is saying he will work on it. What else do you want him to do? It's not like Vincent is UR on purpose...

The other US male skater who will be hurt by a stricter panel, though obviously to a lesser extent, is Jason Brown. Brown chronically under-rotates his triple jumps, as often as Vincent under-rotates his triple jumps (though Vincent still has more URs overall due to jumping quads). He has gotten quite a few calls this year but also gotten away with some.

 

[bobbob]

Hey I like this little survey that is on the Japanese men/ladies threads! Let's try it here. Obviously answer with the applicable U.S. men.


1) Your favorite U.S. man in 2018
2) Your favorite program of the year
3) Your favorite performance
4) Your favorite costume
5) The biggest surprise
6) The most sad moment/event
7) The happiest moment/event
8) The most promising junior
9) The most promising senior
10) Your wish for 2019

I feel like pretty much all of these questions, other than 8 and 10, can be answered as Nathan/his Olympic ups/downs, at least for me.

 

[Skater Boy]

Calm down, Vincent is saying he will work on it. What else do you want him to do?

The other US male skater who will be hurt by a stricter panel, though obviously to a lesser extent, is Jason Brown. Brown chronically under-rotates his triple jumps, as often as Vincent under-rotates his triple jumps (though Vincent still has more URs overall due to jumping quads). He has gotten quite a few calls this year but also gotten away with some.

At Nationals I anticipate the rotation issue will not show its head. Jason right now is on a roll. He is shoiwng the promise he once flickered years ago.

 

[bobbob]

At Nationals I anticipate the rotation issue will not show its head. Jason right now is on a roll. He is shoiwng the promise he once flickered years ago.

The main problem with Jason, roll or not, is that his jumps are simply too simple. His jump content has not improved for 5 years, I think he is the only male skater still skating for which that is the case. Let's ignore the quad for now, which obviously is really hindering him. Without a quad, he should be doing 8 triples a program. But he hasn't landed more than 6 triples in a single program, in 4 events, despite being on a roll, and in his most recent GP he only landed 4. All of the top 10 ladies on the GP circuit have done 7 triples in a program, most of them more than one of their programs. Even with a 3A, if he were a woman Jason's jump layout in the free would be considered weak.

Vincent has a lot of problems, there is no doubt. But there is a slight chance he can correct, there is a little potential. I just don't see Jason improving his jump layout after 5 years, declining slightly year after year.

 

[Tavi...]

You know, I used to really like this thread because it had actual conversation about the US men. People would post articles, interviews, clips, and news, discuss skaters’ actual performances in competition and shows, upcoming head to head face offs, etc. Right about now, people would be anticipating Nats - who would medal, etc., but so far, there hasn’t been much Nats chat yet - maybe because of all the retirements, maybe because people think Nathan winning is a foregone conclusion?

In any case, I was really excited to see this thread with some new posts in it. But I have to say, I’m kind of perplexed at some of what I’m reading.

I do think Karne brought up an interesting point - which is, what did Vincent mean when he said he is “redefining his definition of acceptable rotation”. What was acceptable to him before? Did he mean, “I used to think it was okay if I got it to the quarter mark and now I know it has to be less than that,” (even with the new rules this season) or something else? Because he struggled under the old rule too. I guess I mostly had seen it as a coaching issue in the past, but now I’m wondering if there was more to it? In any case, like Tosca, I’m glad he’s working on it now. And I do think he’s improved a lot in other aspects of his skating this season, so it will be interesting to see what he looks like at Nats. As Karne said, a few months isn’t a lot of time to make major tech changes - as we’ve seen with Jason this season - but it’s good he’s working on it, and since he’s apparently planning fewer quads, that may help him focus on rotating the ones he does jump.

Speaking of Jason, @bobbob, you kind of overlooked a few important facts in your rush to characterize him as declining slowly. Such as the fact that he’s currently #7 on the season’s best list, and that he has the 4th highest SP score. Or that there are other guys who occasionally under rotate and don’t get called for it, including Nathan. Or that he didn’t deliberately do a four triple program in France - he popped several planned triples. For a guy who’s completely revamping, not tweaking, his jump technique with a new coach - another fact you overlooked - he’s not doing too badly.

As for me, since per Brian, the 4S was planned for Golden Spin and taken out bc he had a minor ankle injury, I’m interested to see whether Jason will attempt one at Nats, and how much progress he’s made with the FS otherwise - can he finally focus long enough to avoid those pops? Can he maintain the same stellar level of performance in the SP? I’m also curious to see what Nathan’s strategy is - I really like his SP this year. And as mentioned above, I’m wondering what Vincent will look like. I’m also looking forward to seeing which other guys will step up to fill the holes left by retirements. Finally, I’m really going to miss Max and Adam in particular - Nats really won’t be the same without them!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Redefining his definition of acceptable rotation.

I...I...well, the exact phrase that came out of my mouth is not permitted on GS, so let's settle for what the golly gee batman.

If that's the attitude not only is it not at all a shock that he's getting called out so hard but I'm not expecting a single thing to have changed by US Nats. If he's only just "redefining his definition of acceptable rotation" to THE ACTUAL DEFINITION OF ACCEPTABLE ROTATION now then there's no way the problem is fixed.

Honestly, I'm gaping like a fish. He basically just admitted he knew he UR'd but to him, his UR jumps were an acceptable definition of rotation and the only reason it's being fixed is because the tech panels have been calling him on it more consistently.

That right there, folks. THAT'S why it's super important for tech panels to be STRICT. Because if they're not, you get terrible attitudes like that. Holy cow. I can't even.

Uh, except the definition of acceptable rotation has changed this season to becoming more strict, so it is important for someone like him (who has been hit or miss on his rotation) to be even more committed to getting an acceptable level of rotation. He's aware that his jumps have faced scrutiny, but also had many quads ratified as clean too - I mean, look at his SP from Worlds, just last March: http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/wc2018/wc2018_Men_SP_Scores.pdf. And it's not like when he does UR, he's URing on purpose.

There are plenty of skaters other than Vincent who I'm sure are now redefining what they consider an acceptable level of rotation, now that tech panels are being stricter. He didn't admit he knew he UR'ed - he admitted that because URs are stricter now, what he considered a sufficiently rotated jump has to be revised. And why not? If a skater is rotating jumps and is able to get them ratified, why would they change their technique? Now that he's being hit with < calls under the stricter rules, he has to fix it. I don't see the issue or "terrible attitude" you're trying to paint him as having.

Vincent is astute in acknowledging that cleaner performances with easier difficulty are working for many skaters this season. But higher difficulty can really pay off, whereas average difficulty is just leaving points on the table. Then again, if he reduced his difficulty further, I'm sure folks who seem to just love to criticize him just because would then criticize him for THAT. I mean, they probably wouldn't even credit Zhou if he did modify his technique to have more ratifiable jumps. Whatever makes them feel better, I guess.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Vincent is astute in acknowledging that cleaner performances with easier difficulty are working for many skaters this season. But higher difficulty can really pay off, whereas average difficulty is just leaving points on the table. Then again, if he reduced his difficulty further, I'm sure folks who seem to just love to criticize him just because would then criticize him for THAT. I mean, they probably wouldn't even credit Zhou if he did modify his technique to have more ratifiable jumps. Whatever makes them feel better, I guess.

I think he can take some risk, maybe a few quads in each program, without giving up too many points. Obviously he can't compete with the Jason Browns of the world without quads, but he does need to rack up points with a lot of strong jumping passes whether those are triples or quads. If he can find the right balance he should win silver (mostly due to the SP margin he'd get by executing two quads), so it would be a pity if he ends up not medaling because he took too much (or too little) risk.

 

[evasorange]

There’s not really a viable third option to send to worlds besides Vincent is there? I think his spot is safe unless he really meltsdown. Probably the judges will score him like they did Karen Chen last year-call out the urs but hike up the pcs to cover for it.

Jason in my opinion has got to at least attempt a quad here(assuming his injury from golden spin is healed). He definitely needs to upgrade all his jump content but here at nationals I think the lower jump base value will be ok. If he goes out and only makes minimal mistakes he has nothing to worry about. But again I would love to see him fight and attempt that elusive quad.

And Nathan, well I’m not expecting perfection. I think he’ll put out good performances but I doubt he wants
To peak here. The title is basically his for the taking.

 

[Tavi...]

I think he can take some risk, maybe a few quads in each program, without giving up too many points. Obviously he can't compete with the Jason Browns of the world without quads, but he does need to rack up points with a lot of strong jumping passes whether those are triples or quads. If he can find the right balance he should win silver (mostly due to the SP margin he'd get by executing two quads), so it would be a pity if he ends up not medaling because he took too much (or too little) risk.

I wish I knew more about jumping - both how hard it is for someone like Vincent to correct under rotation and for someone like Jason to start landing quads.

I agree that for Vincent success at Nats will require a careful balance between # of quads / cleanliness / points, but what that balance is I’m not sure. He does generally seem to do better in the second half of the season, so maybe with the work he’s put in since Tallin, he will be better able to find the balance.

It’s hard for me to think he would miss out on medaling entirely though - Alexei, Camden, and Tomoki have lower SB than he does by about 10 points. Although I suppose we can’t discount the possibility that someone will have a “Ross Miner skate of your life” moment!

As to Jason, despite the fact most people seem to think he’s a shoo in for silver, I think there are several real question marks. If he attempts a quad and it’s not a good attempt, he could lose a lot of points. In addition, his FS is still a work in progress (he’s popped several jumps at both of his last comps). And of course, he may not be able to repeat his success with the SP here. So it’s possible Vincent could take silver even without a lot of quads.

I guess playing those odds is what strategy is all about - I’m actually dying to know what kind of programs both guys will be going for, and can’t wait for practice reports!

 

[Seren]

I also can’t wait for Nationals- I think there is a lot to like about all the podium contenders.

As for Jason- if he were doing a 4 triple LP popping jumps while still with Kori I would be worried. For someone who is completely overhauling their technique I’m not so worried. I do think he should go for the quad though, as long as it’s semi consistent. The reason I’m not worried is that the triples he lands look better than they ever have- his 3A is actually consistent now and his 3F and 3L are beautiful when executed.

I think another year will be more telling of Jason’s success with revamping his jumps. You won’t be able to say he didn’t try.

 

[karne]

Uh, except the definition of acceptable rotation has changed this season to becoming more strict, so it is important for someone like him (who has been hit or miss on his rotation) to be even more committed to getting an acceptable level of rotation.

Uh, except he was still getting called UR plenty of times under the "old" definition of acceptable rotation so clearly his definition was way out.

There are plenty of skaters other than Vincent who I'm sure are now redefining what they consider an acceptable level of rotation, now that tech panels are being stricter. He didn't admit he knew he UR'ed - he admitted that because URs are stricter now, what he considered a sufficiently rotated jump has to be revised. And why not? If a skater is rotating jumps and is able to get them ratified, why would they change their technique? Now that he's being hit with < calls under the stricter rules, he has to fix it. I don't see the issue or "terrible attitude" you're trying to paint him as having.

Because acting like this is new or that this is because of the rule change is exactly the problem! The problem didn't just magically develop this season! It's been a problem for him over a prolonged period of time and he and his team ignored it because apparently, according to him, his jumps were "acceptably rotated". Again, it's pushing responsibility off Vincent and his coaches and onto someone else. "Oh, it's not Vincent's fault, they changed the definition". Newsflash, he was underrotating under either definition!

Vincent is astute in acknowledging that cleaner performances with easier difficulty are working for many skaters this season. But higher difficulty can really pay off, whereas average difficulty is just leaving points on the table. Then again, if he reduced his difficulty further, I'm sure folks who seem to just love to criticize him just because would then criticize him for THAT. I mean, they probably wouldn't even credit Zhou if he did modify his technique to have more ratifiable jumps. Whatever makes them feel better, I guess.

Oh please. I've actually gone on record - in this very thread - as saying that I believed Vincent should scale back or even remove the quads entirely until he can start rotating them and the triple Axel consistently. That he should pick one quad, work on getting that and the triple Axel around, and then look at adding others back in. Nice try, pal.

 

[oly2018]

Vincent often gives overly complex answers to simple questions, so of course people will come to different conclusions. I agree with Karne that Vincent sounds like he isn't taking full responsibility. I would also add that his rotation issues aren't limited to quads. His triple axel has been consistently UR and a few other triples have had rotation issues throughout the season. To be honest, overhauling his jumps will take time, so I am setting my expectations low going into nationals.

I think silver and bronze will be a bigger question mark than we think. Jason has been consistent in the short, but the long has included some consistent pops. His long needs more triples and even then, it will come down to PCS. The judges will have to decide between Jason and Vincent and who they want to prop up. I do think it is between those two guys, but I will say, Jason's jump content is closer to Camden's than Vincent's. If Vincent has a great day, even with an UR jump or two I don't see the judges carrying Jason to 2nd on PCS alone.

 

[oatmella]

Vincent has gotten penalized for his UR this season. He says he is working on the issue. Maybe he could have used a different choice of words, but I don't see the big deal.

He also appears to have grown quite a bit from last season.

 

[Mrs. P]

Jason is definitely in a rebuilding mode and at the start of the season when he basically bombed his Challenger Event free skate and Skate Canada short program and finished off the podium at both events, I would have been happy to see him get third and on the worlds team.

But things have changed in recent weeks, it's worth noting that at the moment Jason, not Nathan, currently has not only the highest SP score among the U.S. men, but also the the highest SP TES among all the men as well. It's clear he is getting more consistent with the program, which I think is a good blend of the strengths he already has, which made it easier to incorporate the new technique he's adopted for his jumps. He basically scores high enough with his 3Z-3T to equal what some score with a solo quad and his solo flip has also scored massive GOE to nearly match the base value of a triple axel. On paper he shouldn't beat a clean Nathan, but he can capitalize, as we saw at IdF when Nathan isn't clean.

His free skate has been far more problemmatic, but he's shown incremental improvement and it's clear that he's gotten more comfortable with the choreography and style, especially as they've added some of his signiature choreographic elements, such as the spilt jump and the spiral. And at Golden Spin, he got both his 3As and the 3-3, which was an improvement from IdF. And his score has increased by some 20 points over the course of the season, and that's with room to improve technically.

If not a shoo-in, I think he looks pretty good to get silver based on his current trajectory this season.

ETA: this link that shows the season best and average scores gives a pretty good take on where all the us men (and other disclplines) are currently.
http://skatingscores.com/usa/

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Oh please. I've actually gone on record - in this very thread - as saying that I believed Vincent should scale back or even remove the quads entirely until he can start rotating them and the triple Axel consistently. That he should pick one quad, work on getting that and the triple Axel around, and then look at adding others back in. Nice try, pal.

If he can do two different quads, he'll be in very good shape. Even if they're a bit iffy in practice, it's probably a good risk to take since Nationals judges can be generous with technical calls. For the LP, I think that's where things can get dicey if he is replacing a triple jump with one of his less consistent quads. Looking at the field, it's probably unrealistic that he'd finish lower than third. However, I think it would be good for him to get a few solid skates to get some of his confidence back, even if it means dialing back the difficulty some.

 

[bobbob]

Oh please. I've actually gone on record - in this very thread - as saying that I believed Vincent should scale back or even remove the quads entirely until he can start rotating them and the triple Axel consistently. That he should pick one quad, work on getting that and the triple Axel around, and then look at adding others back in. Nice try, pal.

Vincent's problem is more of a landing technique issue than actually not physically being able to get the rotation (if he scaled back to triples, he would still under-rotate, without changes being made). On the other hand, Jason's problem seems to be a physical rotation issue (meaning he simply isn't rotating fast enough to get the rotation, his issues would get worse if he attempted quads).

Jason Brown hasn't been rotating his 3A consistently either. Should he scale back? (Jason would not UR a 2A. Vincent *may* UR a 2A because his issues are not rotation, it is more the landing technique) So it would make sense for Jason to scale back but not for Vincent.

 

[Mrs. P]

Jason was 5/6 on rotation on 3A attempts at IdF and GS, his two most recent completions. He got positive GOE on 5/6 of them. He scored 10.51 and and 10.21 points on the solo 3A in SP. He’s received anywhere from 11 to 13 points on 3 out of his 4 attempted 3A combos.

Man yeah, he really needs to scale back to a 2A. The judges really hate his 3A.

Or if you want to argue that Jason didn’t deserve to get full credit, then wow the judges and tech panel were so blatent to not only call it rotated but to give it GOE as well!

***

I will say that Vincent has beaten Jason on their two last head-to-heads and Vincent does seem to rise to the challenge at nationals, so I’m not going to assume anything is a given really.