2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[Elucidus]

Also, its not like Tuktik and Lilbet are models of consistency. Tursynbaeva, also, doesnt really have to perform well at GPs, since she has no competition for her worlds and 4cc spot, so she may as well skate as she skated this season, for example.

Hm, fair point. Still, both of them have 3As which they can use to their advantage in SP - the deed Scherbakova can't boast about yet. 3A landed in SP is HUGE advantage in ladies field, actually. You can't ignore that when assessing matchups seriously.
However, don't underestimate Eteri's coaching. Lilbet improved her consistency drastically just during couple of months. She is likely to become model of consistency in the new season, for all you know.

Tusynbaeva is from a small fed, and her PCs at worlds were 34 +69 - somewhat higher than Anna's, but still not such a big deal.

Yuna Kim was from small fed too - so what? Tursynbaeva has 4CC and WC silver medalist reputation already. She is like Shoma Uno of ladies now So.. yeah

 

[Elucidus]

https://media.8ch.net/file_store/99...c10519a4e0c2a6babcad17aae8ff90a21de2f12fe.jpg
Zagitova against Putin

 

[moriel]

Hm, fair point. Still, both of them have 3As which they can use to their advantage in SP - the deed Scherbakova can't boast about yet. 3A landed in SP is HUGE advantage in ladies field, actually. You can't ignore that when assessing matchups seriously.
However, don't underestimate Eteri's coaching. Lilbet improved her consistency drastically just during couple of months. She is likely to become model of consistency in the new season, for all you know.


Yuna Kim was from small fed too - so what? Tursynbaeva has 4CC and WC silver medalist reputation already. She is like Shoma Uno of ladies now So.. yeah

I actually disagree about 3A in SP being a huge advantage.


Lets look at Rika, who has higher BV than Tuktik. Last season she did, when clean:
SP: 3A, 3F+3T, 3Lzx, total jump BV of 23,99
FS: 3A+3T, 3A, 3Lo, 3Lz+2T, 3Fx, 3Lz+2T+2Lox, 3Sx, total jump BV of 52,65

Now, Anya's programs last season:
SP: 2A, 3F, 3Lz+3Tx, total jump BV of 19,71
FS: 4Lz, 3F+3Lo, 2A, 2A, 3Lz+3Tx, 3F+1Eu+3Sx, 3Lzx, total jump BV of 57,01

So basically, 1 quad + some overall harder layout leads to same total BV across two programs as 3 triple axels.

Yep, in SP, she may go behind ladies with triple axels, but not enough to hurt her PCs, since her SP is strong enough to beat everybody else, but in FS she can catch up.

Tuktik has easier layout than Rika.

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

Valieva, Liu, Kanysheva, Chromykh, Usacheva, Tarakanova, Kadyrova.. Very, very doubtful statement

The only two girls that I believe are virtually guaranteed the JGPF are Valieva and Liu. Kanysheva, Sinitsyna, Tarakanova, and Vasilieva are the next names that come to mind but none of them are a lock over Tarusina and Gubanova IMO. All of those girls can put out great performances but they have their moments as well. Plus I would put Gubanova’s PCS above most if not all of them. If she can skate clean she has just as good of a chance as anyone.

Kadyrova is hitting the quad in practice and if she lands it in competition that will give her a huge advantage but that’s a big if. There is nothing about her skating that really stands out otherwise so she will have an uphill battle in terms of reputation. She probably has to land it at test skates to even have a chance at a spot and that could be a tall order.

This may be an unpopular opinion but Khromykh and Usacheva do not impress me. Usacheva is inconsistent. Khromykh could do something if any of the above make mistakes but clean I think they would get the PCS nod. However this could change at test skates if both made improvements over the summer with Eteri like Kostornaia in 2017.

At this moment I am looking at the Russian girls chances on the JGP like this:

1 Valieva

2-7 Gubanova, Kanysheva, Sinitsyna, Tarakanova, Tarusina, Vasilieva - these 5 could go in any order. It’s going to come down to who is the most clean when it counts.

8-9 Usacheva/Khromykh

10 Kadyrova ???? She is a huge wild card and could fall literally anywhere on this list depending on the quad. If she lands it in test skates and then again in competition she could be #2 behind Valieva. Or she may not be able to do it satisfactorily enough to get out of test skates. Who knows what will happen with her.

I believe 9 girls at the most will receive spots. Adding Tarusina and Gubanova to the mix does squeeze things a little bit but I think for the most part all of the girls who deserve spots will get them.

 

[Elucidus]

I actually disagree about 3A in SP being a huge advantage.

Maybe so. Still, Tursynbaeva has real potential for 3A in SP and both 3A and 4S in FP (or even combinations with them). It's a lot in terms of BV.

Plus I would put Gubanova’s PCS above most if not all of them.

There is juniors PCS ceiling though - Gubanova while beng in juniors - is never getting PCS she is deserving. It will be couple of points above the rest at best.

2-7 Gubanova, Kanysheva, Sinitsyna, Tarakanova, Tarusina, Vasilieva - these 5 could go in any order. It’s going to come down to who is the most clean when it counts.

You forgot about Kanysheva's 4T, I suppose.

 

[Happy Skates]

The only two girls that I believe are virtually guaranteed the JGPF are Valieva and Liu. Kanysheva, Sinitsyna, Tarakanova, and Vasilieva are the next names that come to mind but none of them are a lock over Tarusina and Gubanova IMO. All of those girls can put out great performances but they have their moments as well. Plus I would put Gubanova’s PCS above most if not all of them. If she can skate clean she has just as good of a chance as anyone.

Kadyrova is hitting the quad in practice and if she lands it in competition that will give her a huge advantage but that’s a big if. There is nothing about her skating that really stands out otherwise so she will have an uphill battle in terms of reputation. She probably has to land it at test skates to even have a chance at a spot and that could be a tall order.

This may be an unpopular opinion but Khromykh and Usacheva do not impress me. Usacheva is inconsistent. Khromykh could do something if any of the above make mistakes but clean I think they would get the PCS nod. However this could change at test skates if both made improvements over the summer with Eteri like Kostornaia in 2017.

At this moment I am looking at the Russian girls chances on the JGP like this:

1 Valieva

2-7 Gubanova, Kanysheva, Sinitsyna, Tarakanova, Tarusina, Vasilieva - these 5 could go in any order. It’s going to come down to who is the most clean when it counts.

8-9 Usacheva/Khromykh

10 Kadyrova ???? She is a huge wild card and could fall literally anywhere on this list depending on the quad. If she lands it in test skates and then again in competition she could be #2 behind Valieva. Or she may not be able to do it satisfactorily enough to get out of test skates. Who knows what will happen with her.

I believe 9 girls at the most will receive spots. Adding Tarusina and Gubanova to the mix does squeeze things a little bit but I think for the most part all of the girls who deserve spots will get them.

Do you think Gubanova will even be on the JGP considering she is on the senior reserve team and didn't do the JGP last year? I'd love to see her in any competition but it seems like an odd move. Even without Tarusina the JGP already seemed squeezed. It makes me feel bad for girls who would've been on the cusp like Shabatova etc., but who knows what will happen. As for Kadryova - do we even know if she will be invited to test skates? She's a very interesting case. RusFed can be unforgiving though, and I guess with this depth they can afford to be.

 

[Vandevska]

I think it was unwise to keep Alina away from Trusova and Shcherbakova who both have competition ready quads - at this point Alina doesn't have a competition ready quad, if I was her I wouldn't want to wait till the GPF (assuming they all make it) or Russian Nationals to see how my Olympic Champion PCS will help me against technically stronger competition.

I think the current layout is better for her. Imagine she gets 2nd place to one the juniors, what might happen is that junior getting a PCS boost (as they will anyway) and Alina maybe losing a tiny bit of the reputation.

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

Do you think Gubanova will even be on the JGP considering she is on the senior reserve team and didn't do the JGP last year? I'd love to see her in any competition but it seems like an odd move. Even without Tarusina the JGP already seemed squeezed. It makes me feel bad for girls who would've been on the cusp like Shabatova etc., but who knows what will happen. As for Kadryova - do we even know if she will be invited to test skates? She's a very interesting case. RusFed can be unforgiving though, and I guess with this depth they can afford to be.

Well we have already seen Konstantinova stay back two seasons so it is not weird to see Tarusina and Gubanova do the same.

I don’t know what’s going on with the National/reserve team decisions and their correlation to GP assignments. But I will reiterate, Gubanova didn’t do JGP last season due to boots but she also didn’t move up to seniors either. Her name was on that JGP list and submitted for assignment. Also, we need to look at this from her perspective. She didn’t get senior GP assignments but she is still eligible for JGP. So why not just try for JGP because surely this is better than no GP at all. This is more events for her to prove herself, earn reputation, and secure high ranking/ Seasons Best scores to get that senior GP assignment next year. She can do Senior Bs and other events as a senior regardless of what GP she does. The name of the game in Russia now is take what you can get. There is no reason to just stay home when you don’t have to.

While I do feel bad for Shabatova, Safonova, etc it’s also a competition. At the end of the day I want to see the best girls who are eligible for each stage. I don’t care if they are 18 or 13, Best go. We know that senior Grand Prix is off the table for Tarusina and Gubanova. So I would much rather see both in junior than Shabatova, Safonova, Frolova etc because they are better skaters. The others can respond by working hard and trying to earn it next year.

Regarding Kadyrova - I think RusFed loves their ladies quads, quads, and more quads lol. You show a landed quad over the summer you will get invited to test. She finished 5th at Elders. Shcherbakova finished 5th at Elders in 2018, showed quad lutz over the summer, was invited to test, and subsequently secured her spots. I bet the quad will earn her an invitation and it will be up to her from there.

 

[Vilord]

I would be surprised if Gubanova was on the JGP. This is after all her second senior season and she allready has two JGP seasons from her junior years. There are just to many good juniors (or first year seniors like Tarakanova and Vasilieva) that needs international experience to grow. Tarusina I can see on the JGP since she missed both her junior years due to that traffic accident.

I do however not think that the hope for a GP for Gubanova is lost. I would be verry surprised if nothing changes in the GP assignments after test skates. I am sure someone will withdraw (or be forced to) due to not being in good enough shape. And if someone withdraws the replacenments are done according to SB list and Gubanova is second on that list of those missing GP spots (Tarusina is first).

 

[[email protected]]

The new season has become closer!

Some random thoughts on GP placements.

Alina's main challenge in France is Kaori. I have not heard that the latter has raised the tech stakes. Hence, we might expect something like 220 - 223 from her, if clean. The thing is that Kaori had a big pcs increase at the worlds which might stay. Still, meltdown aside this score to beat does not look like a very difficult task for the world and Olympic champion. I don't believe that Alena in her first GP will put significant pressure on Alina. The only exception to it is the situation if Kostornaya shines in a challenger with a triple axel. Then she will become the main threat. But there is no evidence that it is going to happen.
Japan is another case. Rika will be a big threat. But Alina after winning in France can easily settle for silver or even bronze.

Alina's choice of GP rounds is surely hers. First, she does not have to prove anything. She does not need the home crowd or imaginary home cooking. Moreover, she had already meltdowns in Russia. France and Japan were her sentimental picks. And still her theoretical GPF chances look very promising.

Alina vs. Alena I think that the Fed made this pair deliberately. They are 2 highest pcs ladies in the world (senior and junior). At the same time, their tech is limited vs big jump girls. We don't know in what shape Alina is going to be during the coming season. We don't know about her long-term plans vs. her health status. Kostornaya may be positioned similarly to her: high but not the highest TES with the top artistry/pcs. It is always good for the FED to have a skater like that. If Alena beats Alina we may see this "transition" towards the end of the season.

Medvedeva vs. Trusova. Another deliberate choice. I will be frank. Looking at Zhenya's performances during the last season starting with that awful original SP I thought that her career as a member of the National team would be over. Then came the Cup of Russia with a dubious win over Liza. But then she made a feat. Zhenya delivered when it mattered most and got the podium ahead of all the Japanese in Japan. So, she is back in the game. But the field is as crowded as never before. Medvedeva and her coach were talking long-term, namely about the next Olympics. There are many skaters who talk about that including Trusova. Pairing the big brand 20 year old skater and coming of age junior prodigy 3 years before the biggest event is not only an interesting exercise. It's about strategic choices. Will brand/experience/artistry have a chance against quads? Medvedeva has the most comfortable GP rounds: Canada where she trains and Russia where she has a big support. With such a handicap will she be able to beat Trusova or at least be close score wise? If yes, the race will be on. If she fails, sorry I will be doom and gloom again regarding her National team prospects let alone Bejing.

Tuktamysheva vs. Scherbakova Very similar to the previous pair. For me the difference is that here I would place "the incumbent" higher. Liza had a phenomenal start last season and even more phenomenal finish during WTT. Unlike Alina she has all motivation of this world to prove that her not going to WC was a mistake. If she adds 3A combo and 3Lz-3T to the FP, if she skates clean she is 240+ skater. Anna at this moment is nowhere near. However, we remember as well how after a brilliant 2014-15 season Liza could not score 200 the very next year. Hence, on the one hand it will be a very good competition practice for Anna. On the other hand, if Liza somehow loses it, this may be a very good case for Anna to build the name and to support her National team ambition.

These 3 pairs will be competing for 3 team spots. Somehow, I think that we shall see 1 skater from each pair on the team. So far my bet would be Alina, Sasha, Liza. But it is based on common sense and the results of the end of the last season. We need to see at least some challengers to start talking about 2019-20 ladies power ranking.

As for the other girls. I am glad for Sima. She showed good improvement last year and I hope it will continue. For one thing,she will get a place in the Nationals where I still plan to go. I cannot see Sofia challenging 3 out of 6 "paired" girls for the place in the team. But the ice is slippery we all know that. Still I truly believe that with all her consistency she needs to up her tech ante. The worlds showed that even at her peak form she was not the big podium material yet. Stasya with 2 GP assignments...She is invincible. Gubanova with no assignments... Her only chance now is keep skating clean. No mistakes. Like Medvedeva and Zagitova during their famous winning streaks. Otherwise, she won't come up, ever...

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I feel like Sofia has a legit shot at two medals on GP this season

 

[nussnacker]

The only exception to it is the situation if Kostornaya shines in a challenger with a triple axel. Then she will become the main threat. But there is no evidence that it is going to happen..

You're making a good point about challengers. They do matter a lot, Rika's win at her challenger really helped to boost her reputation.
So with regards to predictions, I do think challengers will have a big impact on judges' perceptions this season.

 

[nussnacker]

I actually disagree about 3A in SP being a huge advantage.


Lets look at Rika, who has higher BV than Tuktik. Last season she did, when clean:
SP: 3A, 3F+3T, 3Lzx, total jump BV of 23,99
FS: 3A+3T, 3A, 3Lo, 3Lz+2T, 3Fx, 3Lz+2T+2Lox, 3Sx, total jump BV of 52,65

Now, Anya's programs last season:
SP: 2A, 3F, 3Lz+3Tx, total jump BV of 19,71
FS: 4Lz, 3F+3Lo, 2A, 2A, 3Lz+3Tx, 3F+1Eu+3Sx, 3Lzx, total jump BV of 57,01

So basically, 1 quad + some overall harder layout leads to same total BV across two programs as 3 triple axels.

Yep, in SP, she may go behind ladies with triple axels, but not enough to hurt her PCs, since her SP is strong enough to beat everybody else, but in FS she can catch up.

Tuktik has easier layout than Rika.

I think you're right, Anna benefits from backloading her combo in the short (which honestly people seem to overlook... backloaded combo gives quite a few points!).
But that's assuming Rika won't be trying to land a quad, but we all know she will definetely go for it. So it's worth it to calculate her TES with 4S< (or even 4S if she's competing at NHK) and not 3S.

But I do think Elizabet will certainly benefit from her 3A + if Elizabet was to repeat a hard jump in her free, she will certainly go for 2 4sals and one 3A, that will quite good point wise, will certainly edge out Rika in TES.
But all of it is a lot of speculation... I expect Eteri girls will all podium at every single event, but between them, it's going to be very close and ultimately it will be due to minor mistakes and overall cleanliness, which will come as a deciding factor.

 

[Jontor]

You're making a good point about challengers. They do matter a lot, Rika's win at her challenger really helped to boost her reputation.
So with regards to predictions, I do think challengers will have a big impact on judges' perceptions this season.

Speaking of Challengers. When do we get to know the assignments for the Challenger Series??

 

[flanker]

I think you're right, Anna benefits from backloading her combo in the short (which honestly people seem to overlook... backloaded combo gives quite a few points!).
But that's assuming Rika won't be trying to land a quad, but we all know she will definetely go for it. So it's worth it to calculate her TES with 4S< (or even 4S if she's competing at NHK) and not 3S.

Everything is possible, but still, Rika was hardly able to do two clean 3As in one program during the last season, so I'm not yet on the boat of two clean 3As plus one 4S (even UR) in one program.

 

[Fluture]

My tips: Alina+Sasha/Alina+Liza

I think Sasha and Alina is likely. One huge star + the rising prodigy.

Are there any criteria on how skaters are chosen for Japan Open? I know that it‘s a team competition, a bit like WTT, so I thought there might be some rules on how to choose skaters.

Speaking of Challengers. When do we get to know the assignments for the Challenger Series??

I‘d be interested to know too. There are so many girls this season that Challenger might be almost as interesting as GP. I imagine the Russian ladies on the GP would all want at least one to test out their programs in competition before the GP circuit starts. So, it‘s pretty likely that some of them will meet beforehand anyway. Will they go with the same pairings they did for GP, or will they distribute it a bit differently?

 

[Scott512]

I'm actually not surprised that Gubanova didn't get a spot. It seems like maybe being on the reserve team was a consolation prize. Sima has a better season's best and world standing, and it's not as if she hasn't had her own share of hardships up to this point.

I do feel bad that Gubanova left Turenko for Buyanova presumably to get that CSKA boost, only to have Sima get more Challengers and now a GP under Turenko.

It's absolutely moronic to put Nastia on the reserve national team and then not give her a senior Grand Prix. Doing this stupid move of course got people's hopes up like mine that she would get two Grand prix's let alone one. That didn't even happen. They should have just put Masha and Sima on the reserve team and left it at that.

No way will Anastasia skate juniors this upcoming year. Let her skate some lower-level senior events Challengers open skates Russian Nationals and Cup of Russia. If they put her in juniors and she bombed or went up against Alysa Liu who has multiple triple axels and got beaten by her Rusfed would send Nastya to Siberia! In other words Juniors is a no-win situation for Anastasia. And her being 16 turning 17 next season against 14 year old girls would put extra pressure on Anastasia that she does not need.

Nastya well have to do well at open skates in September to get the rusfed to look at her with more confidence and hope. There is a lot of pressure on this young lady with so much competition around her.

Will Alina be the best in the world 3 years in a row?

Will Zhenya be at her best with her new coach 18 months into them working together? That would be November or December and that's what horse or said it would take 18 months for her to hit her peak with him.

Can Sofia be as consistent as last year with better competition around her and pressure and expectation she did not face last year? Just on a side note she has one of the most beautiful singing voices I've ever heard in Russian or English. Maybe she could skate to her own music someday.

Can Liza have another great start to the season like last year? Illness ruined her season last year it will be interesting to see if she's at the same level she was last year before she took ill.

While 3A are brilliant with huge upsides they aren't just going to come in and roll the competition like they did in juniors. It will be fascinating to see.

 

[monochrom3]

tbh I think the GP assignments were pretty good for all the major contenders. Russia has 6 major contenders this year and they were pretty strategic about it.

Alina – got first pick, and is currently the world's top seed in ladies skating. She likely chose Japan and France for personal reasons. Japan, which she's always had pretty good skates historically, makes a better choice rather than Russia – she's had pretty bad skates there in part due to the stress, and she finds it difficult to skate when people clap while the skater skates, something the Russian crowds LOVE to do. France is a good enough time away from NHK and also she had pretty good skates there before if I recall correctly. Also Grenoble = Turin (GPF location) in terms of time zones and she's had issues with jet lag before: GPF this year in Canada where she nearly missed her SP because she was overly jetlagged so I don't think she would have picked SkAM or SC anyway. The competition in IdF should be doable for her, even if she's not at 100% gold or silver should be within reach. NHK has Rika, but she's also beat Rika on home ground during World's this year (and Rika seems to have a similar issue as Alina with skating on home turf at the moment from what we've seen) so Gold or Silver is also within reach there.

Evgenia – 3rd seeded and got basically what Alina and Lilibet didn't pick; Lilibet wouldn't have picked Rostelecom either ways – she's not Russian and the push will ultimately be for a Russian podium. She's very comfortably located in both competitions, and while she faces Trusova and Rika at SC, she's also more or less guaranteed a Bronze there if she skates clean – which is pretty doable for her. The only other major contender is pretty much Bradie? Who doesn't quite have the PCS Zhenya has that should be theoretically enough to seat her in bronze. On the off chance Trusova or Rika both make huge mistakes, I would think silver is also pretty much within reach. And Rostelecom, Silver should be hers for the taking. There's really no one else in the field. So I'd say her chances are pretty good as well.

Liza – she has the tech scores, and is as much a contender for Gold in both her assignments. Her TES and Lilibet's should be similar for the most part especially if she does the 3Lz-3T. Lilibet has a quad but the difference is not that great and consistency with quads is also an issue. So between Lilibet and Liza, it should go to either one of them for Gold if they do skate clean, and at worst bronze.

Trusova – should likely sweep her events, unless Rika gives her enough of a run for her money at SC. Rika has the PCS advantage for now, but Trusova's PCS should rise as she begins challengers. But she's still got bigger tech overall, and gold should be hers to lose in both competitions.

Anna – problems with consistency so far but comparable tech to Liza and Lilibet, so she could keep silver/bronze between the three of them in both events. If she's consistent with the quad and the rest of her elements, Gold is also probable.

Alena – putting her with Alina protects her a great deal in a way; I don't think she has a 3A as of now, and her PCS should rise. Judges tend to peg PCS based on the rest of the field, and Alina holds the highest PCS in the field right now. Kaori, who will also be at IdF also got a significant PCS boost at Worlds (not sure if she'll keep it but PCS drops less than it rises). So if she skates well, Alena's PCS will have the biggest boost if she follows Alina. I don't think she'll be able to beat Alina if both skate clean considering her tech lacks and Alina has better spin GOEs as well, but if all goes well, it should be enough for a Silver-Bronze or two bronzes to finish.

Which means all 6 major contenders will likely medal in both competitions, ceteris paribus. This setup maximises the medal potential of all the Russian ladies as a whole and also gives them the best chances to go on to GPF. Also none of the ladies will be doing back to back competitions which is good for them.

GPF qualifications will be another thing with Rika and Lilibet in the mix, but I think that will really come down to who actually manages to pull off two clean skates for their competitions.

 

[DenissVFan]

I hope RusFed fills all their Challenger spots unlike last year.

 

[Jontor]

About Gubanova

I am still furious. Let's face it, as much as I love Sotskova and Sakhanovich, I feel their GP spots are wasted opportunities. Gubanova could have shined here. The girl has potential to medal at Worlds for crying out loud.