2020-21 U.S. Ice Dance

TontoK

Hot Tonto
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 28, 2013
Country
United-States
I feel for Carreira & Ponomarenko, they have worked so hard and are really wonderful skaters and worthy of an Olympic berth. I sasy this because I do not want anyone to think I am rooting against them. In fact, I look forward to seeing what they have planned for nationals. Personally, I know how I would feel in their shoes. I would be very down over the immigration issue and might find it hard to find motivation some days. It is a mixed blessing to have 5 teams worthy of going to the Olympics and only 3 spots. Hubbell and Donohue have been there - fourth place finishers in an Olympic year.
I've felt for a couple of years that C/P would overhaul H/B before Beijing. I don't feel that way any more. H/B have excellent programs this year, showing real growth at Skate America. C/P weren't slouches, not by any means, but "the trend is your friend" and H/B are trending the right way.

Their free dance this year is masterful.
 

litenkyckling

Final Flight
Joined
Jun 6, 2018
I'm so disappointed for them, but I think they deserve credit for making a very difficult decision - I saw someone on twitter describe it as an example of what sportsmanship looks like during these times and I couldn't agree more. Hoping that they are ok and excited to see them compete again, hopefully soon.

As far as the Olympic team goes - I do think that H/B will go. I think it's easy to forget that JL is 27 and will be 28 come Beijing - I think their age and experience will be the tools they need to get there. C/P will make wonderful Olympic athletes in the future, and not going in 2022 will give them an opportunity to podium at 4CC and get much needed points for the next quad which may end up being of more value to their future.

I would also really like for H/D and C/B to split the team event. Have H/D do the RD (because their Midnight Blues is so big and it's a style that they are great at) and C/B do the FD where they pick up tonnes of points. Both teams are worthy of a medal. I wonder if they will push for this themselves regardless of who is the national champion because a) they both missed out when the Shibutanis did both last time b) they are now training mates and c) they have both had great success and Worlds medals in the past, and they must surely know that the ISU will not put 2 US teams on the podium - any Olympic medal will get you sponsorships down the line. It would be a mutually beneficial decision.
 

dancelion21

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 14, 2019
It might not be in their control since USFS can only have two disciplines split. Last time, they split Mens and Ladies. USFS probably can't split pairs since it's not guaranteed that the US will get two pairs. There has been talk that Nathan didn't want to do the short and the free to conserve stamina for the individual back in 2018, so he might want to do that again in 2022. It's hard to say for Ladies, which was also split in 2018.

I saw somewhere that the selection criteria for the Team Event back in 2014 was that the highest ranking disciplines got first dibs on whether they would split the event or do both (so that meant Davis/White got first choice), not sure if that was the case in 2018 or if it will still be the case for 2022. If that's the case for 2022, then Nathan would obviously get first pick, and second pick would go to whichever ice dance team is US No.1 come 2022. I hope they would choose to split, but if that's not the selection criteria, it wouldn't be in their control.
 

litenkyckling

Final Flight
Joined
Jun 6, 2018
It might not be in their control since USFS can only have two disciplines split. Last time, they split Mens and Ladies. USFS probably can't split pairs since it's not guaranteed that the US will get two pairs. There has been talk that Nathan didn't want to do the short and the free to conserve stamina for the individual back in 2018, so he might want to do that again in 2022. It's hard to say for Ladies, which was also split in 2018.

I saw somewhere that the selection criteria for the Team Event back in 2014 was that the highest ranking disciplines got first dibs on whether they would split the event or do both (so that meant Davis/White got first choice), not sure if that was the case in 2018 or if it will still be the case for 2022. If that's the case for 2022, then Nathan would obviously get first pick, and second pick would go to whichever ice dance team is US No.1 come 2022. I hope they would choose to split, but if that's not the selection criteria, it wouldn't be in their control.
Ah that makes sense - maybe after his last experience Nathan wouldn't make the same choice? Who knows - fingers crossed they split dance! How come the Shibs got to choose last time when H/D were the champions going into the Olympics?
 

dancelion21

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 14, 2019
I think it was because the Shibs were seen as the most consistent Americans. Even though H/D finished ahead of the Shibs at US Nats, the Shibs finished ahead of them at the most recent international event, the Grand Prix Final. H/D also had several opportunities to cement their place as the No. 1 Americans, but would stumble (literally) at the last step. Most notably, at 2017 Worlds, H/D were third going into the free dance before tumbling down the standings to finish as the No. 3 Americans yet again after missing the twizzles.
 

litenkyckling

Final Flight
Joined
Jun 6, 2018
I think it was because the Shibs were seen as the most consistent Americans. Even though H/D finished ahead of the Shibs at US Nats, the Shibs finished ahead of them at the most recent international event, the Grand Prix Final. H/D also had several opportunities to cement their place as the No. 1 Americans, but would stumble (literally) at the last step. Most notably, at 2017 Worlds, H/D were third going into the free dance before tumbling down the standings to finish as the No. 3 Americans yet again after missing the twizzles.
haha oh yes, 2017 worlds - what a journey
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
I'm so disappointed for them, but I think they deserve credit for making a very difficult decision - I saw someone on twitter describe it as an example of what sportsmanship looks like during these times and I couldn't agree more. Hoping that they are ok and excited to see them compete again, hopefully soon.

As far as the Olympic team goes - I do think that H/B will go. I think it's easy to forget that JL is 27 and will be 28 come Beijing - I think their age and experience will be the tools they need to get there. C/P will make wonderful Olympic athletes in the future, and not going in 2022 will give them an opportunity to podium at 4CC and get much needed points for the next quad which may end up being of more value to their future.

I would also really like for H/D and C/B to split the team event. Have H/D do the RD (because their Midnight Blues is so big and it's a style that they are great at) and C/B do the FD where they pick up tonnes of points. Both teams are worthy of a medal. I wonder if they will push for this themselves regardless of who is the national champion because a) they both missed out when the Shibutanis did both last time b) they are now training mates and c) they have both had great success and Worlds medals in the past, and they must surely know that the ISU will not put 2 US teams on the podium - any Olympic medal will get you sponsorships down the line. It would be a mutually beneficial decision.
I think have CB and HD split the team event at the olympics sounds fair and reasonable for them. But I think a lot will depend on what Nathan Chen wants to do as well as the ladies - do they have one solid consistent skater or one better at the sp and one better at lp. With HD and CB their position in the team event is not like to change much at all who skates.
 

dancelion21

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 14, 2019
H/D generally score better in the rhythm dance and C/B generally score better in the free dance. Here are some random guesses for who might represent whom in ice dance at the 2022 team event.

P/C might not participate in the team event since France has little chance for a medal, esp since James/Cipres retired. They didn't participate in 2018. The five countries which thus qualify for the free programs would probably be Russia, the US, Japan, Canada, and China. H/D and C/B should both have no problem placing ahead of the ice dance teams from China and Japan, but H/D have recently had trouble placing ahead of G/P of Canada. That may not be the case in 2022, but it's worth keeping in mind.

I don't think Russia will split disciplines in dance since S/K score consistently higher than S/B in both the free and rhythm dance. C/B's free skate scored higher than S/K at both competitions they competed against last season (CoC and GPF) while H/D have the highest rhythm dance score. If they split disciplines for ice dance, they have a chance of placing above S/K in one or both, even though the likeliest outcome is that S/K still place higher.

If the US wants to try for gold, the biggest thing that will make a difference will probably be how the Russian men do in the short program. In the Mens Short, the clear 1/2 will likely be the US and Japan, but everything from like 3-7 is a wildcard of who is cleanest on the day between China/France/Russia/Canada/Italy/South Korea since men are so inconsistent. If the Russian man ends up in 6 or 7, it will help provide buffer for the ladies and pairs. Funnily enough, this is basically exactly what happened last Olympics where the Russian ended up losing their team gold medal.
 

happycamper2554

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 15, 2018
H/D generally score better in the rhythm dance and C/B generally score better in the free dance. Here are some random guesses for who might represent whom in ice dance at the 2022 team event.

P/C might not participate in the team event since France has little chance for a medal, esp since James/Cipres retired. They didn't participate in 2018. The five countries which thus qualify for the free programs would probably be Russia, the US, Japan, Canada, and China. H/D and C/B should both have no problem placing ahead of the ice dance teams from China and Japan, but H/D have recently had trouble placing ahead of G/P of Canada. That may not be the case in 2022, but it's worth keeping in mind.

I don't think Russia will split disciplines in dance since S/K score consistently higher than S/B in both the free and rhythm dance. C/B's free skate scored higher than S/K at both competitions they competed against last season (CoC and GPF) while H/D have the highest rhythm dance score. If they split disciplines for ice dance, they have a chance of placing above S/K in one or both, even though the likeliest outcome is that S/K still place higher.

If the US wants to try for gold, the biggest thing that will make a difference will probably be how the Russian men do in the short program. In the Mens Short, the clear 1/2 will likely be the US and Japan, but everything from like 3-7 is a wildcard of who is cleanest on the day between China/France/Russia/Canada/Italy/South Korea since men are so inconsistent. If the Russian man ends up in 6 or 7, it will help provide buffer for the ladies and pairs. Funnily enough, this is basically exactly what happened last Olympics where the Russian ended up losing their team gold medal.

S/K have gotten more consistent and more clout. They will beat both H/D and C/B in either segment.
 

BlissfulSynergy

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 1, 2020
Country
Mars

BlissfulSynergy

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 1, 2020
Country
Mars
S/K have gotten more consistent and more clout. They will beat both H/D and C/B in either segment.
I would emphasize the political clout backing SinKats over any actual skill dominance. Seriously. :rolleye: SinKats supposedly being 'more consistent' than they used to be does NOT make them superior to other top teams. It's just been easier to force push SinKats to the top than it was to give B/S that kind of push. :rolleye: :rolleyes: :rolleye:

I suppose SinKats will be beating everyone, including Gabby & Guillaume. Long arm of Zhulin & Rusfed. The SinKats push is purely about politics and Rusfed being fed-up with North American ice dance dominance. SMH


at the 2022 team event.
There's no guarantee the 2022 Olympics will be taking place as scheduled. But sure, debates and guesses about what might happen competitively at a projected Games are worth having.
 
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happycamper2554

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 15, 2018
I would emphasize the political clout backing SinKats over any actual skill dominance. Seriously. :rolleye: SinKats supposedly being 'more consistent,' does NOT make them superior to other top teams. It's just been easier to force push SinKats to the top than it was to give B/S that kind of push. :rolleye: :rolleyes: :rolleye:

I suppose SinKats will be beating everyone, including Gabby & Guillaume. Long arm of Zhulin & Rusfed. The SinKats push is purely about politics and Rusfed being fed-up with North American ice dance dominance. SMH
Agree to disagree then. I think they are better then both American teams. They also beat both of them at 2019 worlds before they had as much clout as they do now.
 

Dreamer57

Medalist
Joined
May 20, 2018
Agree to disagree then. I think they are better then both American teams. They also beat both of them at 2019 worlds before they had as much clout as they do now.
I think that if they keep the Egyptian snake dance (which they did not have at 2019 worlds), C/B have a good chance of beating S/K in the free dance.
 

dancelion21

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 14, 2019
Holy crud, in this article, Madi describes how she got her concussion in July. Basically, it was a hot day in Montreal, and she fainted after a walk while climbing up stairs. Evan caught her, but she bumped her head against a stair. Afterwards, she felt nauseous when she tried to train. I'm glad she was able to take the time off ice to recover. It's pretty scary to think that it happened from an ordinary activity like a walk, and not say, a risky training move.

 

bramweld

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
Oh no. If I have to see that again i will surely poke my own eyes out.
How different we all are. Didn't really dig either H/D or C/B. I am not and S/K fan either but I am so curious to see P/C's new RD. Whenever I want to really enjoy this pattern I go back to the 2014 programs, they were so much better.
 
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