2022-23 Japanese Nationals Recap

[RatedPG]

Japan is looking like an overall team contender. Very strong in 3 out of 4 disciplines - actually probably gold favourites in 3 events. In dance well they only have one viable team now led by Daisuke. Take away his popularity and fame there are definitetly skill issues - not just technique but strength on lifts still. Japan usually not known for national inflation definitely had it in dance and ladies. Good for Kaori for winning after GP. Russian ladies and men are very strong that there are several gold medal contenders especially without the Russian ladies competing. I am very confident that Japan will dominate worlds though with fair judging Daisuke and partner could deservedly get hammered they probably won't.

Didn’t watch the dance. However, I watched the ladies and with Shin Amano as the technical specialist, the ladies event, was not inflated when it came to the scores. Mai Mihara typically scores between 215-220 for clean skates internationally. She scored 219 here and I can see her scoring like this at Worlds with a clean skate. Also. Kaori last year scored 234 with a clean skate at Nationals and then went on to score 233 at Olympics and 236 at Worlds with clean skates. Queen Kaori is back. She skated and landed all her jumps cleanly and attained level 4 with all her elements to score 233. If she skates the same at Worlds, she will score 230+ there, as well

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I definitely agree about Watanabe and my brain tends to question Tomono’s selection, as well when I think about Japan’s selection criteria. The team selections were the ugliest part of Nationals. But it wasn’t Miura who got the shaft. It was Sato.

To clarify, Tomono’s GP bronze had nothing to do with his selection. It was his World Standing and the one point margin of victory at Nationals. That’s it. That all it was. Sato also has a GP bronze and a GP Silver and qualified for the GPF, but those things do not matter. He also has a SB ten points higher than Tomono’s, but that doesn’t matter either because it’s only the fourth highest SB among Japanese men. He does have the third highest Season Ranking and TES among Japanese men and those things do matter, but not as much as World Ranking, and of course, making the Nationals podium. Had Season Ranking been weighted more than World Ranking (like it should), or if Sato hadn’t fallen on his 3A in the SP, he would have been named to the World team instead.

My brain knows all of that and so choosing Tomono over Sato seems wrong. But my heart really doesn’t care. It would have been heartbreaking for Tomono to finally make the podium and still manage to be named as an alternate… again . In this case, I’m grateful for Jfed being boneheads.

The SPs for both the ladies and men were underwhelming, but both disciplines made up for it in the free skates. The junior girls showed out! Every single junior lady that competed in the JGP made the top ten. Nakai landed two clean 3As, but she’s apparently not used to that layout since she forgot to put in a third combo, which ultimately cost her the bronze medal. Heh, she’ll learn. It was a great technical performance and hopefully she repeats that at Junior Worlds.

Rika’s return to competition is strong. Just three months ago, she probably wouldn’t have made the free skate so this result is great for her, though I’m sure she’s disappointed.

The men weren’t as good as the ladies in the free, but the free skates were still much better than the SPs. It’s a deep field and any of the top 6 could have gone to Worlds with Uno.

Heh, or maybe top 7. The most badass thing in the entire competition is Moriguchi - a junior pairs skater - winning the National Championship in pairs (Miura/Kihara were unable to participate due to flight cancellation ) and then placing 7th in the singles event. The sheer badassery of this cannot be underestimated. I mean, he beat Kagiyama, which is something he can boast about 15 years from now. And he was very close to beating Miura. His jumps are humongous and he did well enough at Nationals to earn an international assignment for next season…as a singles skater! He can have his pick! I’m way too tickled about this. I’ve been joking about how the Japanese’s men field
is so deep that they have to send some of their guys to other disciplines for a few days now.

Agreed that Sato was also quite screwed over by the criteria. I also think Sato would have done well at Worlds and such experience would have really laid the groundwork for him to make it to the next Olympics whereas Miura/Tomono don't seem to have the same competitive fire or firepower.

OMG I didn't realize Moriguchi and Murakami both competed in senior singles. Moriguchi did two triple axels and essentially a clean FS. But also should be mentioned that Murakami did a clean SP with 3Z+3T, 3L, 2A.

https://www.jsfresults.com/National/2022-2023/fs_e/nationals/data0105.pdf

https://www.jsfresults.com/National/2022-2023/fs_e/nationals/data0203.pdf

We might see the first SBS 3Z+3T's ever! I mean, they could both do a 3Z+3T+2A combination ... and once they get triple twists and throws, watch out!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Didn’t watch the dance. However, I watched the ladies and with Shin Amano as the technical specialist, the ladies event, was not inflated when it came to the scores. Mai Mihara typically scores between 215-220 for clean skates internationally. She scored 219 here and I can see her scoring like this at Worlds with a clean skate. Also. Kaori last year scored 234 with a clean skate at Nationals and then went on to score 233 at Olympics and 236 at Worlds with clean skates. Queen Kaori is back. She skated and landed all her jumps cleanly and attained level 4 with all her elements to score 233. If she skates the same at Worlds, she will score 230+ there, as well

I think the SP was pretty inflated for Sakamoto and Mihara. Someone as strict as Amano should have given an 'e' to Kaori's flutz.

Mihara's FS PCS shouldn't have been 5 points lower than Kaori's IMO, and 71 was about right - would have had Kaori's around the same.

Kaori's spins in particular were given pretty high GOE given they lost speed and didn't have the most aesthetic/longest-held positions/rotations. Some of her jumps like the 3F(off axis)+3T and 3L could have had better flow. These are a bit nitpicky, yeah, but it stuff that wouldn't get overlooked by an international panel.

 

[RatedPG]

I think the SP was pretty inflated for Sakamoto and Mihara. Someone as strict as Amano should have given an 'e' to Kaori's flutz.

Mihara's FS PCS shouldn't have been 5 points lower than Kaori's IMO, and 71 was about right - would have had Kaori's around the same.

Kaori's spins in particular were given pretty high GOE given they lost speed and didn't have the most aesthetic/longest-held positions/rotations. Some of her jumps like the 3F(off axis)+3T and 3L could have had better flow. These are a bit nitpicky, yeah, but it stuff that wouldn't get overlooked by an international panel.

Kaori was given a “not clear edge” call for both her lutz in both the short and long programs. Amano is an amazing technical specialist.

PCS score is the part that is subjective. But, Kaori, is a fast skater with excellent skating skills. In my opinion, her “Elastic Heart” program, I see improvements in her skills from upper half of her body, from last year. She normally scores 75 PCS internationally, when she skates cleanly. I would have given her exactly what she got, 76. This highlights an improvement in this area. At the moment, I only would put her behind Valieva, when it comes to this PCS score. She has two fantastic programs this year.