2022 Olympic Ladies Predictions + Analysis!

Fool

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 11, 2018
Country
South-Korea
She lost 5 points minimum on the fall on her 3A, so she probably could have beaten her if she hadn't fallen and had gotten just a little GOE on it (talking about the JGP Final here).
Yeah, but I guess my thinking is that with that kind of BV advantage, even with a bunch of mistakes, you should be able to win. But it happened again at JWC when she was defeated by Usacheva with no quads/3As, so there's points being wasted, as a theme.

And I say that as someone who wants her to contend at the top.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
If Nationals results don't work out the way the federation expects, they'll just send whoever they want anyways. So you're probably right, as long as Alyssa isn't a hot mess the whole season she'll get a spot on the team.
I don't see Alysa getting an Olympic spot unless she earns it outright with her Nationals and GP results. A consistent 3A would get her there, but otherwise there's no reason to pick her over others with similar jump content unless she truly deserves the assignment.
 

Dawn825

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 19, 2021
Reputation. They hyped her up so much as the girl who could compete with the Russians, they'll look pretty foolish if she doesn't even make the team.
 

kirauza343

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 1, 2020
Alysa’s chances are good for making the Olympics. This has been a difficult transition season for her, but she’s coming out of it looking stronger and more well rounded. She’ll need her triple axel back to be a sure thing but she has plenty of time to get it stable and I’m almost certain she’s landed it in practice.

Hopefully we’ll get an actual Grand Prix series next season. It would give her a great chance to show the Fed what IMO is her biggest strength in the field of American ladies: her reliability and her ability to handle pressure. Her losses to Kamila and Daria were from underrotations and falls on her most difficult elements, not because she couldn’t perform on a big stage. That’s something the other US ladies (aside from Bradie) haven’t shown they can do consistently.

As much as I love her and would love to see her podium in Beijing though she’s definitely a long shot at this point. Top 6 could happen though, and in that field would be huge accomplishment.
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Country
Russia
Her losses to Kamila and Daria were from underrotations and falls on her most difficult elements, not because she couldn’t perform on a big stage.

LOL...what? That's exactly not performing. And why do people keep trying to create a narrative of "well if she skated her absolute best, she could have beaten an injured Kamila". Talk about moving the goalposts.
 

kirauza343

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 1, 2020
LOL...what? That's exactly not performing. And why do people keep trying to create a narrative of "well if she skated her absolute best, she could have beaten an injured Kamila". Talk about moving the goalposts.
I’m not trying to argue that she should’ve won or would’ve won. What I’m saying is that she kept her composure and skated well under pressure. She didn’t pull a Mariah at Nationals this year or an Amber at Skate America. Her mistakes came on her most difficult elements and were limited to just one fall at both JGPF and Worlds and a few underrotations on triple axel/quad lutz attempts.

She isn’t prone to popping or completely melting down after a mistake which can’t be said about a lot of US ladies. She has some rotation issues sure, but her competitive mentality is a huge strength. I brought up Kamila and Daria because she faced them in major competitions and still walked away with a JGPF silver and Junior World bronze, both of which are huge achievements. She still had to skate well enough to beat all of the other skaters in those events. Alysa isn’t set in stone for an Olympic spot but even without a triple axel she’s a better bet under pressure than Mariah (we saw what happened when she was favored to win Nationals), Amber (I love her but the girl pops), and arguably Karen (also prone to popping and has a bigger reputation for underrotating, though she could make a good case for herself with a good showing at Worlds).
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Reputation. They hyped her up so much as the girl who could compete with the Russians, they'll look pretty foolish if she doesn't even make the team.
She'll face the Russians on the GP next season, so it'll be pretty clear at that time how she stacks up against them well before the Olympic trial. I think the hype was justified because she was the first American woman to do the quad and, obviously, that's what you need to compete against other women doing quads. However, she is still overmarked; her SP was nice, but for her to be 2-3 points behind Karen and Amber on PCS for as little one-foot skating as she did in her LP (in addition to her relative lack of speed and ice coverage) is really bad judging. She might deserve the bump in the second mark when she's successfully completing the 3A or quad, as other skaters get when they do those jumps, but when she's doing the same content as everyone else her PCS should be well behind the top Americans when she skates as she did in the LP.
 

dancelion21

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 14, 2019
Even without a triple axel, I think Alysa will make the US Olympic team. In this transition year, Alysa still did solid triple-triples (which can't be said for most of the US ladies), and she was also the only one to put them in the second half of her short program (and in the free, it was only her and Bradie that backloaded 3+3s). As others have mentioned, she has a great competitive mentality. Alysa doesn't let falls get to her, and she rarely pops, which is especially helpful for scores since a fall on a rotated triple jump is worth far more than a popped triple. The only pop I can remember her doing is the 2F in the Nationals free program this year (I'm not counting the Las Vegas Invitational, since all those doubles were intentional). Further, while Alysa is prone to carrots, the rest of the US ladies are just as, if not, more prone to underrotations. Without the 3A, Alysa still has a BV advantage on most of the US ladies as a result. Plus, she put in serious work in her components and significantly cut down the PCS gap between herself and the other top US ladies. Last year, Alysa had a 68 in PCS in the free program, while Mariah scored a 75 and Bradie scored a 71. This year, Alysa had 70 in PCS while the highest PCS went to Bradie, who had a 74. That seven point gap went to a four point gap and it shrank more in the short program. This year, Alysa had a 35 while Bradie had a 37. Last year, Alysa had a 32 while Bradie had a 36. Four point gap went to two point gap. Overall, Alysa cut the PCS difference from eleven points to six points, nearly halving it. Thus, she's not nearly as reliant on her ultra-C jumps anymore, and deservedly so. Alysa clearly put a lot of work into improving her components, and I'm glad that it's reflecting in the scores.

Whether Alysa can have a podium chance will depend on the ultra-C elements. With just a consistent triple axel, she would probably slot into the top 5 and have an outside hope of the podium if one of the three Russians or Rika makes mistake. I say this because with a triple axel, she has a significant BV advantage over all the other ladies besides the Russians, Rika, Young You, and Wakaba Higuchi. A 3A in particular is far more valuable than any quad since it can be used in the short program to make a significant BV difference. This BV advantage makes up for the slight PCS disadvantage she would have. Then among the elite group of ladies who have an ultra-C element, I think Alysa would score higher in PCS than Young You. As for Wakaba, I feel like JFed has been trying to drop her hard, and I don't see her making the Japanese Olympic team.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
She isn’t prone to popping or completely melting down after a mistake which can’t be said about a lot of US ladies.
She melted down in one of two competitions this season. I don't mean that as a criticism of her, I'm just saying that she isn't anymore solid than the other US women.
 

macy

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2011
as long as Alysa continues proving she is still reliable and competitive with the very top US skaters, quads or not, she will have just as good a chance as anybody else to make the team.
 

Dawn825

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 19, 2021
Literally when????? The Skate America invitational where she purposefully doubled jumps because she was injured?
I'm not sure most people know she got injured in the practice, if you don't it sure looked like a meltdown.
 

Adjesusluvsu

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 16, 2021
Country
United-States
she has a significant BV advantage over all the other ladies besides the Russians, Rika, Young You, and Wakaba Higuchi
I guess my problem with this is that those are 6 whole ladies. That means four of them would have to make mistakes for Alysa to even have a shot at bronze, and I don't think that's likely at all. However, if she does get her 3A back, I think she will make the US Olympic team!
 

emmaleemochizuki

Rinkside
Joined
Aug 4, 2020
Just a wish and is probably not going to happen. But I really want to see a skater winning the Olympics who is not Russian...

Russia has done an amazing job in the last 10 years, there is such depth of talent. I wonder if China can do the same. They have the people to select from, I'm sure they can find some talented ones, they have the economic means to acquire resources from overseas to improve their athletes. Russia really tried before the Sochi games, politics or not, their level of skating went through the roof since that era. I really want to see other countries doing the same, it's getting bored seeing so many Russian athletes on the podium no offence.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Literally when????? The Skate America invitational where she purposefully doubled jumps because she was injured?
The injury did not prevent her from being able to do triples, as she also completed a few in that same program. Sure, the injury was a big factor but it's not like she was too hurt to do any difficult jumps at all.
 

Lzbee

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 25, 2016
Just a wish and is probably not going to happen. But I really want to see a skater winning the Olympics who is not Russian...

Russia has done an amazing job in the last 10 years, there is such depth of talent. I wonder if China can do the same. They have the people to select from, I'm sure they can find some talented ones, they have the economic means to acquire resources from overseas to improve their athletes. Russia really tried before the Sochi games, politics or not, their level of skating went through the roof since that era. I really want to see other countries doing the same, it's getting bored seeing so many Russian athletes on the podium no offence.
Not for Beijing at least. But China have An Xiangyi who has a lot of potential to be competitive next quad.

Personally, I don't really care for the national aspect of figure skating but would Rika Kihira winning satisfy your requirements?
 

macy

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2011
The injury did not prevent her from being able to do triples, as she also completed a few in that same program. Sure, the injury was a big factor but it's not like she was too hurt to do any difficult jumps at all.
If she went into that performance planning doubles, obviously the injury was preventing her from doing triples.
 

kirauza343

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 1, 2020
The injury did not prevent her from being able to do triples, as she also completed a few in that same program. Sure, the injury was a big factor but it's not like she was too hurt to do any difficult jumps at all.
Different jumps are going to affected differently by an injury. We’ve seen this with Rika being unable to jump her lutz while still hitting gorgeous triple axels, Sasha only being able to go for her quad lutz at Russian Nationals even though her toe has traditionally been more stable, and Anna not being able to go for a quad toe post injury but having no issue with quad lutzes and flips. Alysa’s injury seemed to affect her lutz because if I’m remembering correctly that’s the main jump she doubled (and I want to say she reportedly was injured attempting the quad lutz so it makes sense that her lutzes were what she dumbed down).

Purposefully watered down content to avoid further injury isn’t a meltdown and it’s disingenuous to equate it to one.
 

emmaleemochizuki

Rinkside
Joined
Aug 4, 2020
Not for Beijing at least. But China have An Xiangyi who has a lot of potential to be competitive next quad.

Personally, I don't really care for the national aspect of figure skating but would Rika Kihira winning satisfy your requirements?

Yes I suppose. It would be a dream for me if Rika wins, but I doubt how realistic that is.

I think Kihira has the potential to have longevity like Kostner. She's been steadily improving in every aspects. Technically and artistically too. I think she will be great in the years to come as she matures even more.

She's 18 now more or less. And she is probably over the growing stage. So her technique can stabilise. She might not win, but I think it is very possible for her to win a medal at a Worlds even after the Beijing Olympics. I can see her carrying on to the 2026 Olympic. She's worthy to watch even if she doesn't have very big element
 
Top